Economic Conditions Houston MSA

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Bartholomew Newton
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2 Economic Conditions Houston MSA Houston Unemployment Rate -1.2% U.S. 5.8% Texas 4.3% Houston MSA 4.3% 4.2% 120,600 new jobs created in 2014 Job Growth Houston MSA 38,319 Annual SF Permits Houston MSA 3,764 more than

3 Houston Economic Overview A Cooling in the Oil Boom The price of oil has dropped by more than half since summer 2014 The U.S. crude oil production is at its highest rates in three decades Oil prices expected to remain sideways through 2015 Texas will see a decrease in rig counts through summer 2015, as lower producing rigs are shut down for more profitable and reliable options Texas accounts for 36% of all US crude oil production, approximately 3.2 million bpd The Houston Association of Realtors expects a 10-12% drop in home sales in 2015 Housing prices will continue to rise, and inventory will rise as demand is cooled slightly Houston builders are still forecasted to build 32,500 homes in 2015, compared to 30,000 homes in 2014 Current Houston housing demand is for 35,000 homes a year 3

4 Local Economic Overview Grand Parkway Segment G is currently under construction with the segments from US 290 to IH-45 Current scheduled completion is late 2015 Caters to major employment centers including new Exxon Mobil Campus 4

Enrollment 5,232,065 Total Growth 80,140 140,000 120,145 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

5 Thousands 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,076 4,934 4,750 4,593 4,399 5, State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,232,065 Total Growth 80, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Enrollment Change 78,644 98,273 77,261 80,140 64, / / / / /14 5

6 Regions 4 and 6 Enrollment Trends 6

7 Regions 4 and 6 Enrollment Trends Region 4 Region 6 Rank District 2009/10 Enrollment 2014/15 Enrollment 5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15) 1 Houston ISD 202, ,215 12,442 2 Katy ISD 59,078 70,330 11,252 3 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 104, ,018 8,787 4 Aldine ISD 62,792 69,717 6,925 5 Humble ISD 34,923 39,522 4,599 6 Klein ISD 44,824 49,397 4,573 7 Lamar Cons ISD 23,864 28,319 4,455 8 Alvin ISD 16,788 20,861 4,073 9 Pasadena ISD 52,303 55,579 3, Clear Creek ISD 37,611 40,807 3, Tomball ISD 10,266 13,234 2, Fort Bend ISD 69,374 72,147 2, Spring Branch ISD 32,502 35,114 2, Pearland ISD 18,308 20,549 2, Goose Creek ISD 20,954 23,167 2, Alief ISD 45,553 47,204 1, Spring ISD 35,350 36,948 1, Dickinson ISD 8,878 10,418 1, Sheldon ISD 6,570 7,962 1, Galena Park ISD 21,536 22,735 1,199 Rank District 2009/10 Enrollment 2014/15 Enrollment 5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15) 1 Conroe ISD 49,629 56,363 6,734 2 New Caney ISD 9,609 12,979 3,370 3 College Station ISD 10,102 12,534 2,432 4 Montgomery ISD 6,714 7,936 1,222 5 Magnolia ISD 11,691 12, Willis ISD 6,264 6, Huntsville ISD 6,291 6, Bryan ISD 15,579 15, Splendora ISD 3,382 3, Sealy ISD 2,612 2, Navasota ISD 2,883 3, Anderson-Shiro Cons ISD Cameron ISD 1,606 1, Latexo ISD Buffalo ISD Mumford ISD Livingston ISD 3,999 4, New Waverly ISD Franklin ISD 1,049 1, Burton ISD

8 Houston New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 4Q14 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Katy ISD 3,611 3,519 3,145 20,781 2 Houston ISD 3,548 3,292 1,886 5,085 3 Fort Bend ISD 3,455 3,101 3,078 16,401 4 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,873 2,962 3,463 6,814 5 Lamar CISD 2,295 2,216 2,545 8,714 6 Conroe ISD 2,318 2,093 2,852 7,514 7 Klein ISD 1,849 1,590 2,136 3,890 8 Humble ISD 1,273 1,375 1,570 9,420 9 Tomball ISD 1,289 1,040 1,946 2, Alvin ISD ,146 15, Clear Creek ISD ,423 1, New Caney ISD ,341* 13 Aldine ISD , Magnolia ISD , Spring ISD , Montgomery ISD , Dickinson ISD Goose Creek ISD Spring Branch ISD Pasadena ISD *Numbers edited per TD research 8

9 New Housing Activity New Caney ISD Housing Activity Starts Closings Inventory Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total starts are almost 675 units for the first time, up 138 units over 2013 Closings remain high with an 37% increase over 2013 Inventory is in a good position to sustain future growth with 415 units 9

10 Active Communities with Vacant Developed Lots 10

11 Active or Planned Communities with over 100 Future Lots 11

Active Single-Family Housing Activity Tavola Master planned community 3,142 total homes 2,970 future homes 60 homes completed 43 homes under construction 50 vacant developed lots 19 finished vacant

12 Active Single-Family Housing Activity Tavola Master planned community 3,142 total homes 2,970 future homes 60 homes completed 43 homes under construction 50 vacant developed lots 19 finished vacant homes 2014 housing activity Annual starts = 91 Estimated absorption rates: 2015 = 150 homes 2016 = 160 homes Lennar & Perry Homes are currently building in Tavola All future homes fall within Tavola Elementary 12

13 Active Single-Family Housing Activity Woodridge Forest 672 total homes 475 future homes (estimate) Cernus Group $200K s-$400k s Estimated absorption rates: 2015 = 160 homes 2016 = 140 homes 2017 = 140 homes $200K-$400K+ King s Manor Elementary 16 13

Active Single-Family Housing Activity King s Mill 272 future homes 550 occupied homes As of April 2015: 26 under construction 60 vacant developed

14 Active Single-Family Housing Activity King s Mill 272 future homes 550 occupied homes As of April 2015: 26 under construction 60 vacant developed lots 22 finished vacant homes Estimated absorption rates: 2015 = = = current students $170K-$330K King s Manor Elementary 14

Active Single-Family Housing Activity Cumberland Crossing 362 total homes As of April 2015: 62 under construction 22 vacant developed lots 20

15 Active Single-Family Housing Activity Cumberland Crossing 362 total homes As of April 2015: 62 under construction 22 vacant developed lots 20 finished vacant homes 258 occupied Development likely to be builtout by late 2015/early current students $150K-$210K Crippen Elementary 15

Master Planned Community- Valley Ranch Valley Ranch (North) 1080 Acres Valley Ranch Masterplan calls for 2,000 total homes sites 1,500 futures homes remain (estimate from developer) 1,000 future

16 Master Planned Community- Valley Ranch Valley Ranch (North) 1080 Acres Valley Ranch Masterplan calls for 2,000 total homes sites 1,500 futures homes remain (estimate from developer) 1,000 future apartment units (estimate from developer) 7 homes under construction 4 finished vacant homes $140K-$400K s New roadwork is underway as Valley Ranch Parkway is being extended New Caney High Valley Ranch Elementary Forest Colony Valley Ranch (South) 278 Acres 16

17 Future Single-Family Housing Activity Brookwood Forest KB Homes 440 total homes Under construction (streets and lots) No homes on the ground as of April 2015 $170K-$220K s Estimated velocity rates: 2015 = = = 96 Bens Branch Elementary 17

Manufactured Housing Kings Colony Kings Colony Lots that were developed in the late 70 s and early 80 s Mostly manufactured housing but single-family homes are allowed to be constructed as well 1,500

18 Manufactured Housing Kings Colony Kings Colony Lots that were developed in the late 70 s and early 80 s Mostly manufactured housing but single-family homes are allowed to be constructed as well 1,500 lots remain to be developed Historical building history: 2010 = 80 homes 2011 = 120 homes 2012 = 60 homes 2013 = 60 homes 2014 = 40 homes 628 current students Unincorporated area making it difficult to track development Under new management (now refer to this development as New King s Colony) 352 new permits issued from January February manufactured home permits 69 single-family permits Tavola Elementary zone 18

19 New Single Family Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Row Labels Annual Starts Quarterly Starts Annual Closings Quarterly Closings Inventory VDL Futures TAVOLA ,016 BENS BRANCH CRIPPEN KINGS MANOR NEW CANEY OAKLEY PORTER SORTERS MILL VALLEY RANCH ,500 Grand Total ,341 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 19

Enrollment History Student Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged Total Growth Year (OCT) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2010/11 771 815 805 844 783 828 782 756 730

20 Enrollment History Student Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged Total Growth Year (OCT) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2010/ , / , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , , % 2014/ ,059 1,023 1,035 1, , , , % Black or African American % Hispanic % Student Race/Ethnicity Totals HISPANIC/LATIN O, 6926, 53.4% American Indian or Alaska Native % Asian % White % AM. INDIAN/ALASKA NATIVE, 47, 0.4% WHITE, 5214, 40.2% ASIAN, 189, 1.5% HAWAIIAN/PACI FIC ISLANDER, 15, 0.1% BLACK, 388, 3.0% % Growth *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Two or more races % Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander % Year (Oct.) Total 2010/11 10, % 4, % % % 5, % % % 2011/12 10, % 5, % % % 5, % % % 2012/13 11, % 5, % % % 5, % % % 2013/14 12, % 6, % % % 5, % % % 2014/15 12, % 6, % % % 5, % % % Year (Oct.) Economically Disadvantaged % ED 2010/11 6, % 2011/12 6, % 2012/13 7, % 2013/14 7, % 2014/15 8, % MORE THAN ONE, 197, 1.5% 20

21 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2010/ , / , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , , % 2014/ ,059 1,023 1,035 1, , , , % 2015/ ,030 1,096 1,090 1,062 1,069 1, ,007 1,038 1, , % 2016/ ,085 1,139 1,137 1,138 1,107 1,111 1,106 1,038 1,038 1, , % 2017/ ,150 1,210 1,192 1,186 1,191 1,162 1,173 1,149 1,064 1,168 1, , % 2018/ ,215 1,290 1,258 1,241 1,233 1,233 1,231 1,221 1,184 1,211 1, , % 2019/ ,281 1,359 1,345 1,318 1,298 1,278 1,301 1,280 1,258 1,331 1, , % 2020/ ,327 1,434 1,417 1,406 1,370 1,340 1,351 1,353 1,317 1,412 1,196 1, , % 2021/ ,390 1,485 1,487 1,479 1,460 1,414 1,416 1,405 1,391 1,478 1,268 1, , % 2022/ ,452 1,552 1,545 1,555 1,540 1,509 1,497 1,473 1,445 1,552 1,328 1,191 1,070 19, % 2023/ ,512 1,619 1,613 1,612 1,614 1,592 1,600 1,556 1,515 1,613 1,392 1,248 1,132 20, % 2024/ ,576 1,687 1,682 1,684 1,675 1,670 1,688 1,664 1,600 1,690 1,448 1,309 1,187 21, % % Growth *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year New Caney ISD may reach 15,000 in 2017/18 5 year growth = 3,641 students 2019/20 enrollment = 16, year growth = 5,632 students 2024/25 enrollment = 21,105 21

22 Summary The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 8 consecutive years. Texas $18.7 billion in exports for November 2013 represented more than 18% of all U.S. exports. Housing market showing strong growth in new construction and increasing values starts are over 670 units for the first time, a 25% increase from Bens Branch and Kings Manor Elementary are the most active areas for new housing growth, representing 61.2% of the district s annual starts. New Caney ISD may reach 14,000 students by Five-year enrollment growth of 3,641, with fall 2019 enrollment of 16,617. Ten-Year enrollment growth of 8,129, with fall 2024 enrollment of 21,

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