EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

Transcription

1 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree. Target: Increase the percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 with a postsecondary credential. This target ensures progressive improvement of state educational attainment throughout the plan years. By 2020: 48 Percent By 2025: 54 Percent By 2030: 60 Percent Methodology: The 2020 and 2025 targets were determined in three steps. First we estimated the number of master s, bachelor s, associates, and certificates awarded for the 15 years leading to the target year for Texans who will be ages 25 to 34 in the target year. Then we added in the estimated population moving to Texas in that age group with a postsecondary degree or credential and added estimated doctoral and professional degree completions. Finally, we divided this number by the population projection for ages 25 to 34 for the target year. In 2013, the educational attainment of this group was 38.3 percent. The average annual increase from 2004 to 2013 was 0.37 percent. An average annual increase of 1.27 percent is needed to reach 60 percent attainment in The average of the five best increases in the past 10 years was 1.11 percent. Rationale: This model adds 2 percentage points to the estimated educational attainment for future years to account for individuals who earned degrees outside of Texas. It assumes 12.3 percent for Texas residents who were born elsewhere and have a postsecondary credential earned from an institution outside of Texas. The model assumes doctoral and professional degrees earned in Texas will account for 2.3 percentage points of education attainment in In 2013, these accounted for 3.5 percent of the Texas population, according to the ACS. We anticipate these degrees will increase but that their percentage will decrease as educational attainment grows. To project attainment levels, we estimated future completers by counting the individuals who completed credentials between the years of 1998 to 2013 and were 25 to 34 in 2013, and by looking at patterns of completion by year (see How does Texas reach 60 percent attainment handout). We assume an adjustment factor of 1.09 to account for improvements during the plan years. Then, we apply the percentages to the projected completions from the Completion goal to estimate the educational attainment of those ages 25 to 34 in The model uses the Texas State Data Center s 2014 population projections with a 0.5 migration scenario for ages 25 to 34.

2 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25 to 34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree Educational Attainment (25 to 34) 33.5% 35.6% 38.3% 41.1% 47.7% 53.5% 60.0% Population Projection (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,596,133 3,799,624 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population (25 to 34) with an Associate Degree or Higher 988,510 1,173,220 1,342,578 1,562,479 1,896,934 2,262,286 2,690,611 Educational Attainment from Migration 1.93% 1.90% 2.04% 1.94% 1.94% 1.95% 1.95% Annual Doctoral and Professional Practice Completers 4.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% Annual Percentage Change -1.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% Average Annual Percentage Change 2004 to % Average Annual Percentage Change 2014 to % 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate % 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate % Estimated Percent of Migrants with Non-Texas Higher Education 12.28% Completers (25 to 34) 1,229,930 1,358,679 1,697,938 2,066,026 2,498,482 Completions from Completion Goal 199, , , , , , ,000 Completers (25 to 34 in 2013) as a Percentage of Total Completers 45.24% 50.40% 21.90% Completers (25 to 34 in 2013) as a Percentage of Total Completers 49.53% 55.17% 23.97% Completer Adjustment Factor Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,740,753 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Annual Completions as a Percentage of Population (0.5 Migration) 6.1% 6.8% 7.8% 8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 12.3% 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,828,493 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Annual Completions as a Percentage of Population (1.0 Migration) 6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 7.9% 8.7% 9.4% 10.2% Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 40.9% 47.3% 53.6% 60.0% Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 39.1% 40.9% 42.8% 44.6% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 37.8% 36.3% 34.9% 33.5% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 35.4% 37.2% 38.3% 40.6% 46.1% 51.7% 57.3% Sources: Annual Completers - Graduation reports all sectors. Population (25 to 34) to Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - ages 25 to to Educational Attainment - Data Ferret Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey

3 Target: Increase the number of students completing a certificate, associate, bachelor s, or master s from a Texas public, independent, or The first three targets are directly related to the Completion goal. To reach this goal, Texas will need to maintain the strong degree production increases that it has experienced in recent years. By 2020: 376,000 By 2025: 455,000 By 2030: 550,000 Methodology: The 2020 and 2025 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 3.88 percent per year, beginning with 2015 completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). We chose this rate by starting with the 550,000 Completion goal and calculating the yearly growth rate needed to reach that goal. The 550,000 goal is critical to producing enough degrees to reach the 60 percent Attainment goal (see How does Texas reach 60 percent attainment handout). As a feasibility test, past growth trends were examined, along with population migration scenarios. This projected growth is more ambitious than the 2.57 percent annual increases seen in 2013 and 2014, but slightly less ambitious than the 4.7 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014, when the population expanded at a high rate. Rationale: To reach the higher education Attainment goal of 60 percent for Texas, the most substantial contribution of credentialed graduates must come from Texas public, independent, and career colleges and universities. To achieve the Attainment goal for 25 to 34 year olds, steady growth in completions is needed over time; setting and reaching interim targets for the Completion goal is, therefore, critical. It is also critically important for Texas that degree completions improve for adults of all ages, including those seeking to retool outdated skills or those striving to complete master s degrees in specialized fields. If at leas this much progress (reaching 550,000 completions in 2030) can be made, the Educational Attainment goal will be within reach.

4 Completions 151, , , , , , , ,000 Public 4-Years 75,397 92, , ,165 Public 2-Years 40,553 56,858 73,963 99,009 Public Health-Related 1,908 2,545 3,429 4,758 Baylor Private Institutions 22,968 23,739 26,323 27,980 Career Schools 10,952 23,983 32,118 40,035 Annual Growth Rate 3.23% 4.00% 7.03% 2.57% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate % Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 3.88% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate % 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate % 0.5 Migration Population 20,949,316 22,928,508 25,253,466 26,581,256 26,947,116 28,813,282 30,734,321 32,680,217 Completions as a Percentage of Population (0.5 Migration) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0 Migration Population 20,949,316 22,928,508 25,253,466 27,161,942 27,695,284 30,541,978 33,699,307 37,155,084 Completions as a Percentage of Population (1.0 Migration) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 157, , , , , , , ,000 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 157, , , , , , , ,237 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 157, , , , , , , ,754 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 157, , , , , , , ,943 Sources: Annual Completers - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Private Institutions 1998 to 2002 and career schools 1998 to 2008 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems (IPEDS). Total Population to Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - All Ages to

5 Target: Increase the number of Hispanic completers. This target helps ensure parity across completers for groups that have traditionally been underrepresented. By 2020: 138,000 By 2025: 198,000 By 2030: 285,000 Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 7.52 percent per year beginning with 2015 Hispanic completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows Hispanic completions to 285,000, which is 52 percent of all projected completions in Hispanics are projected to be 52 percent of the young adult Texas population in This projected growth is more ambitious than the 5.9 percent annual increase seen in 2014 but slightly less ambitious than the 9.31 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014 when the population expanded at a high rate. Rationale: Population and education data tell a compelling story about Hispanic Texans. An increasingly larger proportion of the state population is Hispanic and many of those are children and young adults. Because Hispanics traditionally have participated in higher education at lower rates than other groups, increasing Hispanic completions in Texas will be critical if this strategic plan is to succeed. We assume a 7.52 percent growth rate is viable because of the substantial progress made since 2000 and the projected growth in the Hispanic population. Question: Do you agree with selecting a group for estimating the percent of Hispanic degrees needed to reach parity?

6 Completions 199, , , , , , ,000 Hispanic Completions 39,797 61,425 89,355 96, , , ,988 Public 4-Years 17,442 24,516 32,070 Public 2-Years 16,724 24,024 36,685 Public Health-Related Baylor Private Institutions 3,260 3,998 5,452 Career Schools 1,902 8,226 14,171 Annual Growth Rate 8.5% 5.9% 5.8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Population - Total (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,777,827 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - Hispanic (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 1,377,386 1,514,484 1,619,766 1,644,627 1,834,361 2,077,738 2,323,615 Hispanic Population as a Percentage of Population 42.4% 41.9% 42.9% 43.3% 46.1% 49.2% 51.8% Hispanic Completions as a Percentage of Hispanic Population 2.9% 4.1% 5.5% 5.8% 7.5% 9.5% 12.3% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004 to % Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 7.52% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to % 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to % Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 96, , , ,988 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 97, , , ,448 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89,355 93, , , ,045 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 40,092 62,578 89, , , ,892 1,036, Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,897,482 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - Hispanic (25 to 34) 1,377,386 1,514,484 1,699,552 1,748,479 2,083,736 2,512,397 2,971,661 Hispanic Population Percentage of Population 42.4% 41.9% 43.6% 44.2% 48.2% 52.0% 55.0% Hispanic Completions Percentage of Hispanic Population 2.9% 4.1% 5.3% 5.5% 6.8% 8.2% 10.2% Hispanic Completions (1.0 Migration) 39,797 61,425 89,355 96, , , ,516 Hispanic Completer Annual Growth Rate 8.5% 5.9% 5.8% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 7.92% Trend - Cumulative Growth Rate (1.0 Migration) 40,092 62,578 89,355 96, , , ,516 Sources: Annual Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Total Population to Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 25 to 34. Hispanic Population 2004 to Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey - Ages 25 to 34.

7 Target: Increase the number of African American completers. This target helps ensure parity across completers for groups that have traditionally been underrepresented. By 2020: 45,000 By 2025: 52,000 By 2030: 61,000 Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 3.05 percent per year beginning with 2015 African American completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows the African American completions to 61,000, which is 11 percent of all projected completions in African Americans are projected to be 11 percent of the young adult Texas population in This projected growth is less ambitious than the 5.8 percent annual increase seen in 2014 and the 7.64 percent cumulative annual growth rate from 1998 to 2014 when the population expanded at a high rate. The African American completion target of 61,000 represents the projected percentage of the population. Getting to at leas this level represents the minimum increase needed to reach parity. Rationale: African American students have made striking gains in Texas in both their participation levels in higher education and in terms of growth in degree and certificate attainment since Although these successes have not been balanced equally between genders (African American females participate and complete at much higher rates than do males), both genders have shown improved results, and tracking African American success data has provided some helpful insights for understanding this population during the Closing the Gaps era in Texas. Continuing to monitor progress for this traditionally underrepresented group will help ensure that recent successes continue.

8 All Completions 199, , , , , , ,000 African American Completions (0.5 Migration) 18,437 26,841 37,658 38,807 45,102 52,418 60,921 Public 4-Years 7,608 10,451 13,112 Public 2-Years 7,093 8,706 13,004 Public Health-Related Baylor Private Institutions 2,318 2,551 2,874 Career Schools 1,272 4,822 8,251 Annual Growth Rate 2.3% 7.2% 5.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% Population - Total (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,777,827 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - African American (25 to 34) (0.5 Migration) 348, , , , , , ,710 African American Population as a Percentage of Population 10.8% 11.8% 11.7% 11.7% 12.1% 11.9% 11.1% African American Completions as a Percentage of African American Population 5.3% 6.3% 8.5% 8.7% 9.4% 10.5% 12.3% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004 to % Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 3.05% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to % 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate 1998 to % Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 19,409 28,049 37,658 38,807 45,102 52,418 60,921 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 19,409 28,049 37,658 40,536 58,581 84, ,348 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 19,409 28,049 37,658 38,583 43,560 49,178 55,521 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 19,409 28,049 37,658 44,188 98, , , Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,245,319 3,613,473 3,897,482 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - African American (25 to 34) 348, , , , , , ,323 African American Percentage of Population 10.8% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.1% 10.3% Completions as a Percentage of African American Population 5.3% 6.3% 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% 9.3% 10.2% African American Completions (1.0 Migration) 18,437 26,841 37,658 38,639 43,944 49,977 56,838 African American Annual Growth Rate 2.3% 7.2% 5.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 2.61% Trend - Cumulative Growth Rate (1.0 Migration) 19,409 28,049 37,658 38,639 43,944 49,977 56,838 Sources: Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Total Population to Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 25 to 34. African American Population 2004 to 2013 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) American Communities Survey - Ages 25 to 34.

9 Target: Increase the number of male students completing a certificate or degree. The percentage of women enrolled in and graduating from higher education institutions has grown and men are not keeping pace. Texas needs to enroll and graduate more males.. Annual Completions Project male completions by gradually increasing the male percentage of total completions to parity by ,000, , , , , ,000 Actual Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2004 to 2014 = 5.11 Percent Projected Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2014 to 2030 = 5.17 Percent By 2020: 168,000 By 2025: 215,000 By 2030: 275,000 Methodology: The 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets were estimated by applying a steady growth rate of 5.17 percent per year beginning with 2015 male completions (master s, bachelor s, associate s, and undergraduate certificates). This rate grows the male completions to 275,000, which is 50 percent of all projected completions in The male completion targets were based on the number of males that will be needed by 2030 to achieve parity with females based on the 550,000 Completion goal. Rationale: The goal is for at least 550,000 more students to complete credentials in The male completion target of achieving parity in completions does not suggest female completion rates must be slowed but rather, that male rates need improvement. Because male participation has been consistently lower than that of females in 400, , , ,000 - Male Completions Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate recent years but has grown at a study pace, the change needed to reach parity was spread evenly over the next 15 years at a pace not much greater than what was observed in the past: 5.11 percent per year. Young males and females graduate from Texas public high schools at the same rate (50.1 percent male to 49.9 percent female), but males enroll in and complete higher education at substantially lower rates. Without progress in male completions, reaching 60 percent attainment will be challenging. The gender target is based on the understanding that Texas will be best served if all individuals in the state access and complete higher education at comparable levels.

10 Completions 199, , , , , , ,000 Male Completions 77, , , , , , ,000 Public University 39,195 46,185 53,591 Public CTC 23,900 32,310 43,499 Public HRI ,164 Baylor Private University 10,374 11,171 11,741 Career 2,923 9,793 12,738 Male Completions as a percentage of total Completions 38.6% 40.8% 41.1% 42.2% 44.8% 47.4% 50.0% Male Completer Annual Growth Rate 3.3% 10.3% 2.4% 6.7% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% Cumulative Annual Growth Rate % Cumulative Annual Growth Rate to Reach 2030 Target Completions 5.17% 5 Lowest Average Annual Growth Rate % 5 Highest Average Annual Growth Rate % 0.5 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,777,827 3,799,702 3,976,856 4,225,965 4,484,352 Population - Male (25 to 34) 1,663,916 1,821,853 1,921,227 1,936,559 2,051,052 2,185,818 2,318,935 Male Percentage of Population 50.5% 50.4% 50.9% 51.0% 51.6% 51.7% 51.7% Completions as a Percentage of Male Population 4.6% 5.5% 6.4% 6.8% 8.2% 9.8% 11.9% 1.0 Migration Population - Total (25 to 34) 3,297,694 3,613,473 3,897,482 3,952,513 4,322,505 4,827,905 5,402,727 Population - Male (25 to 34) 1,663,916 1,821,853 1,982,803 2,016,583 2,244,876 2,528,871 2,841,292 Male Percentage of Population 50.5% 50.4% 50.9% 51.0% 51.9% 52.4% 52.6% Completions as a Percentage of Male Population 4.6% 5.5% 6.2% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.7% Trend - Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 78, , , , , , ,000 Trend - Historic Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 78, , , , , , ,375 Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 78, , , , , , ,459 Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Growth Rate 78, , , , , , ,614 Sources: Completions - CBM009 Graduate reports all sectors. Population to Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections - Ages 24 to 35. Population to Census Bureau Intercential Population Estimates - Ages 25 to 34

11 STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. The student debt goal ensures the affordability of Texas higher education by limiting the debt needed to complete a degree or certificate to no more than 60 percent of wages. By 2020: 60 Percent By 2025: 60 Percent By 2030: 60 Percent Methodology: For the 2020 and 2025 targets, we divided each graduate s student loan debt by the graduate s annual wages earned the year after completion. Then, we ordered these ratios from lowest to highest for that year s completers and picked the middle value. The interim targets are set at the same level as the goal. Significant variability is seen in the annual data from 2000 to The five best years average was a 0.24 percent decrease and the five worst years average was a 4.19 percent increase. In 2012, the ratio was 60 percent. In 2012, the middle value was 73.3 percent for bachelor s degrees, 40.2 percent for associate degrees, and 32.6 percent for certificate completers. Assumptions: This target includes bachelor s, associate, and certificate completers reported by public and private colleges and universities to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB) on the graduation report. It excludes master s, doctoral, professional practice, and graduate-level certificate completions. Completers at career colleges are also excluded, as these institutions do not report financial aid data to the THECB. Additionally, completers with no reported student loan debt are excluded, as are those with no reported wages and those with annual wages in excess of $200,000. Student loan debt is limited to subsidized loans reported on the THECB financial aid database (FADS) report, which does not include private student loans, revolving credit accounts, credit card debt, mortgages, and other installment debt. Student loan debt for leavers and noncompleters is excluded. The Completion goal addresses this group of students. Wages are those reported quarterly to the Texas Workforce Commission for unemployment insurance and wages paid to federal government employees (Department of Defense and Office of Management and Budget). Wages do not include completers self-employed in Texas and nonfederal employees in other states and abroad.

12 STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions Median Debt to Wage 38.2% 44.2% 61.1% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Median Debt 11,292 13,677 19,018 19,796 Median Wage 29,578 30,950 31,101 32,991 Annual Percentage Change -1.1% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Average Annual Percentage Change 2000 to % Average Annual Percentage Change 2013 to % 5 Lowest Average Annual Percentage Change % 5 Highest Average Annual Percentage Change % Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Trend - Historic Average Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 65.5% 74.6% 83.6% 92.7% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 59.3% 58.1% 56.9% 55.7% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 38.2% 47.3% 56.4% 60.0% 72.6% 93.5% 114.5% 135.4% Sources: Median Debt: Financial Aid Database System Reports Median Wage: Unemployment Insurance Wage Records

13 STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions. Target: Increase the percentage of undergraduate students with an Expected Family Contribution (EFC) under $4,000 who have their financial need met without loans to at least these percentages to continue helping the neediest of students. To improve affordability for students with the greatest need. By 2020: 45 Percent By 2025: 52 Percent By 2030: 60 Percent Methodology: For the 2020, 2025, and 2030 targets, we divided completers with student loan debt and an initial Expected Family Contribution (EFC) below $4,000 by all completers with an EFC below $4,000. We increased the percentage without student loan debt by 1.51 percent each year to reach 60 percent in In 2014, for those with an EFC below $4,000, 36 percent of graduates completed without student loan debt. This is up from a low of 30 percent in From 2005 to 2014, the average of the five best annual improvements was 1.4 percent and the five worst was negative 0.5 percent. Rationale: We assume that to reach the 60 percent target, students would have access to additional resources. An increase of 1.51 percent per year of these lowincome students who graduate without debt is necessary for Texas to reach the 60 percent target set for This target includes bachelor s, associate, and certificate completers reported by Texas public and private institutions to the THECB on the graduation report. It excludes graduate certificates and degrees. Career college completers are also excluded, as they do not report financial aid data to the THECB. Student loan debt is limited to subsidized loans reported on the THECB financial aid database (FADS) report, which does not include private student loans, revolving credit accounts, credit card debt, mortgages, and other installment debt. Student loan debt for leavers and noncompleters is excluded. The Completion goal addresses these students.

14 STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wage for graduates of Texas public institutions Percentage with Loans 31.1% 35.7% 35.8% 37.3% 44.9% 52.4% 60.0% Undergraduate Completers (EFC >$4,000) 47,649 61,927 75,590 Undergraduate Completers (EFC >$4,000) without Loans 14,824 22,136 27,045 42,069 Annual Percentage Change 4.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Average Annual Percentage Change 2005 to % Average Annual Percentage Change 2015 to % 5 Lowest Average Annual Percentage Change % 5 Highest Average Annual Percentage Change % Trend - Average Annual Percentage Change 31.1% 33.7% 35.8% 37.3% 44.9% 52.4% 60.0% Trend - Historic Average Annual Percentage Change 31.1% 33.7% 35.8% 36.3% 38.9% 41.5% 44.1% Trend - Lowest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 31.1% 33.7% 35.8% 35.3% 32.7% 30.2% 27.7% Trend - Highest 5 Years Annual Percentage Change 31.1% 33.7% 35.8% 37.2% 44.4% 51.5% 58.7% Sources: Loans and Expected Family Contribution (EFC): Financial Aid Database System Reports Completers: Graduation Report

15 How does Texas reach 60 percent educational attainment by 2030? If Texas increases completions 3.8 percent per year from 2016 to 2030 Texas will reach its goal of 550,000 in Completion By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor s, or At this rate, Texas will educate 6.4 million students between 2016 and In 2030, 2.4 million of those students will be 25 to 34 year olds. In addition to those, another projected 244,000 will graduate from out-of-state institutions and move to Texas by The estimates for the 2030 Texas population put 4.5 million 25 to 34 year olds in Texas. Texas reaches its educational attainment goal of 60 percent with 2.7 million educated (2.4 million instate plus 244,000 from out-of-state). In 2016, projected completers ages 11 to 20 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 9,000 of 326,000. Those over 20 in 2016 will be over 34 in 2030 and outside the target age group. In 2022, projected completers ages 17 to 26 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 203,000 of 408,000. In 2029, projected completers ages 24 to 33 contribute to the educational attainment goal - 148,000 of 530,000. More completers help to reach the educational attainment goal in the middle-plan years than the earlier and later years because most students complete under the age 25. Educational Attainment By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages will have a postsecondary credential or degree. *Estimated 2016 completions of 326,000 based on 2013 completions of 292,000 (including master s) grown by 3.8 percent for three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) completions include certificates (50,727), and associate (70,516), bachelor s (121,226), and master s (48,697) degrees from Texas public, private, and for-profit colleges or universities.