Enrollment Trends. Past, Present, and. Future. Presentation Topics. NCCC enrollment down from peak levels

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1 Presentation Topics 1. Enrollment Trends 2. Attainment Trends Past, Present, and Future Challenges & Opportunities for NC Community Colleges August 17, 217 Rebecca Tippett Director, Carolina Demography 3. Basic Skills 4. Continuing Education & Curriculum 5. Projections 6. Opportunities & Challenges NCCC enrollment down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages for all NCCC program types, , Total NCCC Fall Enrollments Enrollment Trends 438, 4, Attachment PLAN 1 2, SBCC

2 NCCC enrollment down 21% from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages for all NCCC program types, , Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 552, in , 4, -115, or -21% since 29 2, All NCCC enrollment types down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages by program type, , Continuing Education (CE) 2, Attachment PLAN 1 Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) NCCC enrollment down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages for all NCCC program types, , Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 552, in , 4, 2, Fall enrollment for non-nccc programs has held steady Fall headcount of students ages for all program types, , Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 4, UNC & Private Enrollments 2 SBCC 267, 2,

3 215 highest year of UNC enrollments since 21 Fall headcount of students ages by program type, Attachment PLAN 1 Private enrollments down slightly from 211 peak Fall headcount of students ages by program type, , 2,, Privates 3, , UNC, Fewer for-profit enrollments main driver of private decline Fall headcount of students ages by program type, 21-15, 215 fall enrollments below peak for all except UNC Difference between 215 fall headcount (18-64) and peak enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit -8-2,5-32,3-4,5-76,8 Non-Profit Private 5, For-Profit Private 3 SBCC

4 Basic skills had largest percentage decrease Percent difference between 215 fall headcount (18-64) and peak enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit % -1% -14% -14% -28% Basic Skills (BS) -5% Steady increases in number of PSD eligible since 199 Adults (18-64) by educational attainment, PSD Eligible 3.2M Attachment PLAN 1 2.3M 766K AA+ 2.2M 1M <HS Continuing education programs had largest numeric drop Difference between 215 fall headcount (8-64) and peak enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit -2, ,3-4,5 Continuing Education (CE) -76,8 Attainment Trends 4 SBCC

5 Attachment PLAN 1 Less variation in BS & PSD eligibility among young adults Educational attainment of NC young adults (18-24) by race/ethnicity, 215 Share of BS & PSD eligible adults varies by race/ethnicity Educational attainment of NC adults (18-64) by race/ethnicity, 215 <HS PSDE AA+ <HS PSDE AA+ Black 12% 61% 26% Black 16% 77% 7% American Indian 2% 59% 21% Amer Ind 21% 76% 4% White 8% 49% 43% White 12% 7% 18% Hispanic 41% 43% 16% Hispanic 25% 68% 7% Asian 13% 33% 55% Asian 8% 68% 25% 4.4K students enrolled in Basic Skills in 215 Fall headcount of students ages enrolled in Basic Skills, 21-15, BS Fall Enrollments 5, Basic Skills 4,35 5 SBCC

6 Attachment PLAN 1 4.4K students enrolled in Basic Skills in 215, half 21 peak Fall headcount of students ages enrolled in Basic Skills, 21-15, 8,85 in 21 BS Fall Enrollments Steady decline in number of BS eligible since 199 Number of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED, M BS eligible (<HS) 766K , 4, NCCC enrolling fewer eligible adults in BS programs Share of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED enrolled in BS program, % in 29 % BS eligible enrolled in NCCC Population share BS eligible nearly halved since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED, % 6 SBCC % BS eligible 12%

7 Attachment PLAN 1 42% of basic skills eligible adults were female in 215 In 199, majority of BS eligible were white or black Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, White Black Hispanic Other 4% 5% 5% 15% 29% 25% 29% 26% 25% 22% 67% Young adults comprise smaller share of BS enrollments Age composition of CC-BS Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs % 44% 43% % 31% 38% 21 43% 27% 3% 52% of basic skills enrolled adults were female in SBCC

8 Eligible black adults more likely to enroll in CC-BS programs Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adults (18-64) vs. CC-BS Fall enrollments, 215 BS Eligible BS Enrollment* *among those reporting race/ethnicity 43% 31% 32% 3% 29% 22% 6% 5% White Black Hispanic Other Continuing Education enrollments at 15-year low Fall headcount of students ages enrolled in Continuing Education programs, , Continuing Education (CE) 2, Attachment PLAN 1, Today, 3 in BS eligible adults are Hispanic Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, White Black Hispanic Other 4% 5% 5% 15% 29% 25% 29% 26% 22% 25% 67% 54% 44% 43% Continuing Education & Curriculum 8 SBCC

9 Attachment PLAN 1 Curriculum enrollments down -14% or -32K from 2 peak Fall headcount of students ages enrolled in CE or CU programs, , 236,4 24, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Steady increases in number of PSD eligible since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, PSD Eligible 3.2M 2.2M Curriculum (CU), And proportion PSD eligible has declined since 2 peak Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, % 52% % PSD eligible 51% But little change in share PSD eligible since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, % 52% % PSD eligible 9 SBCC

10 Attachment PLAN 1 Majority of CU enrollments in 215 were young adults Age composition of CC-CU Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs % 25% 2% NCCC enrolling fewer eligible adults in CU & CE programs Share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no PSD enrolled in CU or CE, % % PSDE enrolled in CE 6.4% 7.4% % in CU 6.1% Majority of CE enrollments are adults Age composition of CC-CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs % 26% 27% % of postsecondary degree eligible adults were female in 215 SBCC 55% 27% 17% 215 5% 28% 22% 21

11 Attachment PLAN 1 5% of CU or CE enrollees were female in 215 4% of Continuing Education enrollees were female in 215 6% of Curriculum enrollees were female in 215 Black & Hispanic adults growing share of PSD eligible Race/ethnic composition of PSD eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, White Black Hispanic Other 3% 21% 23% 7% 7% 25% 26% 77% 71% 65% 61% SBCC

12 Attachment PLAN 1 NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), % 23% 9% NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 66% 23% 5% 1% 2% White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs % 2% White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian Eligible Hispanic adults more likely to enroll in CU/CE Race/ethnic composition of PSD eligible adults (18-64) vs. CU/CE Fall enrollments, 215 CU/CE Eligible CU/CE Enrollment* *among those reporting race/ethnicity 61% 62% 26% 24% 58% % 7% 5% 4% White Black Hispanic Other -8% 23% 2% 2% 9% +4% 12 SBCC White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian

13 Attachment PLAN 1 Projections Intent to attend community college varies across state Share of NC HS graduates intending to attend community college or technical school, 215 Curriculum enrollments may match 2 peak in 222 Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, , 2,, Curriculum (CU) CC interest highest in areas with slow growth or declines Population growth, SBCC Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 Basic Skills enrollments won t exceed 6K in coming decades Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, , Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) PSDE, BSE, and NCCC enrollments will grow more slowly than total population Projected percentage change in selected populations (18-64), % 11% 12% Attachment PLAN 1 9% Total Population PSD Eligible BS Eligible Any NCCC Enrollments Continuing Ed. enrollments will never match 21 peak Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, , Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), And these projections may be optimistic Fall headcount of students ages by program type, , ACS Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) 14 SBCC

15 Statewide, NCCC enrollments will increase from 216 levels Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, % 16% STATE +9% 8% % Change from 216 % -8% Fast-growing metro areas will outpace state growth Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, Southwest +21% 24% North Central +19% 16% Attachment PLAN 1 Southeast 12% 8% % Change from 216 % -8% PSDE, BSE, and NCCC enrollments will grow more slowly than total population Projected numeric change in selected populations (18-64), K +374K +84K +46K Total Population PSD Eligible BS Eligible Any NCCC Enrollments But trends will vary by region Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, % 16% STATE +9% 8% % Change from SBCC % -8%

16 Attachment PLAN 1 Declines in areas with legacy of manufacturing, agriculture Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, % Range of experiences projected across 58 system schools Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% 16% 8% Decline Increase % Change from 216 Sandhills -2% % Northeast -5% Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs Largest percentage declines: -22% Halifax CC -21% Martin CC 8 7 Largest numeric declines: -93 Surry CC -87 Halifax CC -86 Nash CC -85 Fayetteville Technical CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase Northwest -6% -8% Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs % of schools will have fewer year-olds 8 enrolled in SBCC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase

17 17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs % of schools will have more year-olds enrolled in >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase 17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs Largest percentage increases: +43% Brunswick CC +37% Johnston CC Attachment PLAN Largest numeric increases: +11.6K Central Piedmont CC +11.2K Wake Tech CC +3.8K Johnston CC +3.3K Rowan-Cabarrus CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs Largest percentage declines: -22% Halifax CC -21% Martin CC 8 7 Largest numeric declines: -93 Surry CC -87 Halifax CC -86 Nash CC -85 Fayetteville Technical CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase 17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs Largest percentage increases: +43% Brunswick CC +37% Johnston CC 7 Largest numeric increases: +11.6K Central Piedmont CC +11.2K Wake Tech CC +3.8K Johnston CC +3.3K Rowan-Cabarrus CC 17 SBCC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase

18 For-profits have attracted growing share of degree seekers Enrollments in CC curriculum and for-profit programs (4-year and 2-year), Opportunities & Challenges 25, Majority of high school grads report postsecondary intent Share of NC high school graduates with intent to attend postsecondary by LEA, 215 Attachment PLAN 1 7% of degree-seeking adults were enrolled in a for-profit 18 SBCC

19 Attachment PLAN 1 18% of NC high school graduates met all 4 ACT college readiness benchmarks in 216 Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education Parental attainment for NC children in households, % of NC high school graduates met zero ACT college readiness benchmarks in 216 Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education, especially degree completion Parental attainment for NC children in households, 215 No Postsecondary No PSD 79% 64% 6% 63% 51% 36% 38% 36% 33% 28% 2% 16% All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic No Postsecondary No PSD 63% 36% 33% 28% 2% 16% 19 SBCC All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic

20 Attachment PLAN 1 Entering students/workers distinct from retirees Racial/ethnic composition of NC population by selected age groups, 215 White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian Other 355, Hispanic children in NC 72% 21% 3% 63% 22% % 55 to to to 24 57% 24% 11% to 17 55% 24% 14% 4% Under 51% 23% 17% 5% Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education, especially degree completion Parental attainment for NC children in households, 215 Contact Rebecca Tippett Director, Carolina Demography rtippett@unc.edu (919) No Postsecondary No PSD 79% 2 SBCC 63% 64% 6% 51% 36% 36% 38% 33% 28% 2% 16% All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic