U.S. Hotel Industry Performance - ALIS 2016 Edition -
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1 U.S. Hotel Industry Performance - ALIS 2016 Edition - Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President 1
2 2016 What Wall Street Expects: What STR Expects: 2
3 What to say to an analysts who does not believe our % RevPAR forecast: 3
4 Agenda Total US Review Scale Review Segmentation Markets Pipeline 2016 / 2017 Forecast AirBnB 4
5 Click on Data Presentations 5
6 Total US Review 6
7 Full Year 2015: Decelerating Occ / ADR Growth Rates % Change Room Supply 1.1% Room Demand 2.9% Occupancy 65.6% 1.7% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $79 6.3% Room Revenue 7.4% December 2015 YTD, Total US Results 7
8 Total US RevPAR: NYC and Houston Dragged Total US : +6.3% NYC: -1.7% Houston: -3.3% Total US excluding NYC & Houston: +6.9% *RevPAR % Change December 2015 YTD 8
9 Quarterly RevPAR % Change: Slowing Down Off Record Highs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 * Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q Q
10 Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%. Demand Growth Slows Supply % Change Demand % Change Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/ /
11 RevPAR Growth: It s Going To Be OK (but Not Great) Months 31 Mo 56 Months 70 Mo Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/ /
12 Why Wall Street Is So Blue: Growth of RevPAR Growth Is Slowing Growth of Growth RevPAR % Change 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% RevPAR % Change Growth of Growth Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14% 9% 4% -2% -7% Total U.S., RevPAR % Change and 12MMA Change of Change, 1/ /
13 Chain Scale Review 13
14 Scales: Demand Growth Healthy. Upscale Supply Increases Supply % Change Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD 14
15 Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven ADR % Change Occupancy % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD 15
16 Scales: Upper End Hotels Are Very Busy Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC %, by Scale, December YTD 2015 &
17 Segmentation 17
18 Transient ADR Growth Subsides Despite High Occupancies 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Demand % Change ADR % Change *Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
19 Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly 7% 6% 5% Demand % Change ADR % Change 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% *Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/ /
20 Markets 20
21 RevPAR December 2015 YTD: Winner: CA. Loser: Oil Markets. Market RevPAR % Change Market RevPAR % Change Macon/Warner Robbins, GA 18.6 Ohio Area (1.9) San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA 17.3 Houston, TX (3.3) Oakland, CA 15.7 Texas North (4.1) Chattanooga, TN-GA 15.5 West Virginia (4.5) California North Central 14.9 New Mexico South (5.4) Fort Myers, FL 14.7 Augusta, GA-SC (6.7) Knoxville, TN 14.5 Oklahoma Area (10.0) Portland, OR 14.2 Texas South (11.4) Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 13.8 Texas West (19.2) Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 13.7 North Dakota (20.9) *December 2015 YTD RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets 21
22 December 2015 YTD: High Occ = Higher ADR. (Except in NYC???) Market OCC % ADR % Change Nashville, TN Phoenix, AZ Seattle, WA Tampa/St Petersburg, FL Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA Washington, DC-MD-VA Oahu Island, HI New Orleans, LA Houston, TX New York, NY * December 2015 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets 22
23 NYC 23
24 NYC YTD RevPAR & Occupancy: Full House But No RevPAR Growth RevPAR % Change Occupancy * NYC RevPAR % Change & Absolut Occupancy, December YTD, by year 24
25 Houston 25
26 Houston: Oil Price Predicts Houston Room Demand $105 $95 $85 $75 $65 $ $45 $35 Crude Oil Futures Price / Barrel (LHS) Demand % Change (RHS) *Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Houston, TX Room Demand % Change 1/ /
27 Pipeline 27
28 US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017 Phase % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Under Contract % *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, December 2015 and
29 Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, December
30 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 20 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Oahu Island, HI % Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA % St Louis, MO-IL % Atlanta, GA 1, % San Francisco/San Mateo, CA % New Orleans, LA % Orlando, FL 2, % Detroit, MI % Las Vegas, NV 3, % Phoenix, AZ 1, % Chicago, IL 2, % Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1, % Washington, DC-MD-VA 3, % San Diego, CA 1, % Denver, CO 1, % Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2, % Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4, % Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 1, % Boston, MA 2, % Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2, % Nashville, TN 1, % Dallas, TX 4, % Seattle, WA 2, % Houston, TX 5, % Miami/Hialeah, FL 3, % New York, NY 14, % *US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, December
31 2016 / 2017 Forecast 31
32 Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2016: Super Bowl: Easter: Jewish Holidays: From Phoenix to San Francisco From April to March From September to October April and December will have two more Weekend days (Net +) May will have two fewer Weekend days (Net -) Leap Day February 29 th (No Impact To Results) See: 32
33 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Supply 1.7% 1.9% Demand 2.3% 2.1% Occupancy 0.6% 0.2% ADR 4.4% 4.3% RevPAR 5.0% 4.5% 33
34 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2016F by Chain Scale 2016 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury 0.4% 4.5% 4.9% Upper Upscale 0.5% 4.6% 5.2% Upscale -0.2% 4.5% 4.3% Upper Midscale 0.4% 4.1% 4.5% Midscale 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Economy 0.9% 3.7% 4.6% Independent 0.6% 4.4% 5.1% Total United States 0.6% 4.4% 5.0% 34
35 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury 0.1% 4.7% 4.8% Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.6% 4.7% Upscale -0.6% 3.8% 3.2% Upper Midscale -0.1% 3.7% 3.6% Midscale 0.6% 4.1% 4.7% Economy 0.4% 3.4% 3.9% Independent 0.3% 4.4% 4.7% Total United States 0.2% 4.3% 4.5% 35
36 36
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