Welcome. Paulo Goes Dean, Eller College of Management Welcome Our region

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1 Welcome. Paulo Goes Dean, Welcome. Our region Outlook for Tucson Patricia Feeney Executive Director, Southern Arizona Market Chase George W. Hammond, Ph.D. Director, University of Arizona 1

2 Visit the award-winning Arizona s Economy New features now available! The Arizona s Economy App Real-time data at your fingertips. azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu 6 Free at the Apple App Store and Google Play. Explore data for border economies. Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators mapazdashboard.arizona.edu 7 azmex.eller.arizona.edu 8 University of Arizona 2

3 Our Game Plan Tucson MSA Economy Overview Arizona s job growth accelerated recently Faster gains for both Phoenix and Tucson Arizona and Phoenix jobs are above pre-recession levels Federal procurement spending still falling Arizona wage growth remains subdued U.S. dollar is still elevated and gasoline prices are still low U.S. growth accelerates in the near term Tucson economy gains momentum 9 1 Patents Per 1, Workers Tucson MSA Job Growth 215 mapazdashboard.arizona.edu University of Arizona 3

4 Arizona Job Growth Over The Year 8 4 Tucson MSA Job Growth Over The Year, First Quarter 216 Education and Health Services $43,759 Financial Activities $49,731 Professional and Business Services $44,382 Government $49,883 Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality $8,657 $17, U.S. Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA Rest of State Trade, Transportation and Utilities 14 Information Construction Natural Resources and Mining Other Services $61,357 $34,949 $42,41 $65,878 $32,757 +1,4 jobs +2.8% Avg. Wages per Worker $43,99 in UNIVERSITY OF Thousands ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT 2 15 Job Replacement Rates Through April 216 of jobs lost during the Great Recession that have been replaced $Billions Federal Procurement Spending Arizona, Calendar Year Total Dept. of Defense 2 Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA Rest of State Arizona US University of Arizona 4

5 17 Arizona Wages Per Worker Nominal, Over-The-Year Growth Rates Smoothed U.S. Dollar And Crude Oil Prices Pesos/U.S. Dollar $/BBL Crude Oil-Brent Mexican Peso Arizona Merchandise Exports To Mexico U.S. Real GDP And Job Growth Nominal, Monthly Rate IHS Economics April Real GDP 4 2 Nonfarm Jobs University of Arizona 5

6 U.S. Interest Rates IHS Economics April U.S. Dollar And Net Exports IHS Economics April 216 Index Value Year Conv. Mtg Year Treas. 8 4 Federal Funds Net Exports % GDP (left) Real Exch. Rate - Mjr Currency Trd. Partners (right) Tucson MSA And U.S. Job Growth Tucson U.S Tucson MSA Job Growth By Industry Net Change: Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Trade, Transportation and Utilities Financial Activities Manufacturing Construction Information Other Services Government Mining and Logging Thousands University of Arizona 6

7 25 Tucson MSA Single Family Permits Annual Data Permits 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, The Risks Dismal productivity growth Which drives a surge in costs/inflation Spike in crude oil prices Which contributes to faster inflation Federal Reserve raises rates aggressively Global growth falters U.S. dollar surge, net exports drop No increase in residential mobility Fiscal policy shock 26 Tucson MSA Outlook Summary Actual* Forecast Growth Rate Nonfarm Jobs Personal Income Retail Sales Less Food Population *Personal income data are forecast. Competitive Places The critical role of human capital Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer, Milken Institute 27 University of Arizona 7

8 Presentation overview Long-term regional growth process Long-term regional growth process Education and knowledge in metro economic success State Technology and Science Index Conclusions: Human capital formation Large regional differences in growth Few barriers to flow of economic activity Export-intensive activity is critical Manufacturing is an export sector Healthcare services can be an export Factors affecting disparity in regional growth Existing industrial structure Cost of doing business: Tax rates, capital costs, wage rates, space costs, energy costs, health care costs, etc. Labor force skills, access to markets and capital Research, development and innovation capacities Quality of place issues University of Arizona 8

9 Education attainment of young adults in the U.S. Age 25-29, Education in the U.S. workforce Sources: Milken Institute, Current Population Survey, National Center for Education Statistics. Metros with the highest average years of schooling Workers age 16 and older, 21 Metros with the lowest average years of schooling Workers age 16 and older, 21 Sources: Milken Institute, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, American Community Survey 1-year estimates 21. Sources: Milken Institute, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, American Community Survey 1-year estimates 21. University of Arizona 9

10 Educational attainment and GDP per capita U.S. metropolitan areas, 21 Educational attainment and GDP per capita U.S. metropolitan areas, 21 Sources: Milken Institute, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, American Community Survey 1-year estimates 21. Sources: Milken Institute, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, American Community Survey 1-year estimates 21. Patents and GDP per capita In 261 U.S. Metropolitan Areas Real GDP per capita of U.S. metros, 21 (actual vs. predicted) Real GDP per capita (US$ thousands) Patents per thousand people (ln) Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody's Analytics, Science Metrix, Milken Institute. Source: Milken Institute A Matter of Degrees (213). University of Arizona 1

11 Share of employment in human capital intensive occupations Top 1 among the largest metropolitan areas (26 21) A Matter of Degrees: Arizona metro rankings by educational attainment, 21 Metro area Rank Average years of schooling difference from the national level Tucson, Arizona Flagstaff, Arizona Phoenix Mesa, Arizona Yuma, Arizona University of Arizona 11

12 Workforce educational attainment - Tucson, Arizona Educational attainment 21 share (percent) 21 rank 199 share (percent) 199 rank At least ahigh school diploma (or equivalent) At least some college (no degree) At least a bachelor s degree At least a master s degree Average years of schooling Workforce educational attainment Phoenix- Mesa, Arizona Educational attainment 21 share (percent) 21 rank 199 share (percent) 199 rank At least ahigh school diploma (or equivalent) At least some college (no degree) At least a bachelor s degree At least a master s degree Average years of schooling Human Capital Investment Composite Index University of Arizona 12

13 State Technology and Science Index 214: Arizona Human capital investment composite 214 Indicators Rankings 1 Population with a Bachelor s degree or higher 27 2 Population with advanced degrees 24 3 Population with PhDs 28 4 Recent Bachelor s degrees in science and engineering 1 5 Recent master s degrees in science and engineering 2 6 Recent PhDs in science and engineering 18 7 Science, engineering, and health PhDs 33 8 Science, engineering, and health postdoctorates 4 9 State appropriations for higher education 48 1 State spending on student aid 49 State Technology and Science Index 214: Arizona Human capital investment composite(cont.) Indicators 214 Rankings 11 All Recent Degrees in Science and Engineering 1 12 Average ACT Scores Average Math SAT Scores Average Verbal SAT Scores Number of Doctoral Engineers Number of Doctoral Scientists Change in State Appropriations for Higher Education 3 18 Bachelor's Degrees Granted in Science and Engineering 4 19 Graduate Students in Science, Engineering, and Health 27 2 Households with Computers Households with Internet Access 14 Tech. and Science Workforce Composite Index State Technology and Science Index 214: Arizona Technology and science workforce composite Indicators 214 Rankings 1 Intensity: Computer and Information Scientists 22 2 Intensity: Computer Programmers 28 3 Intensity: Software Engineers, Systems Software 1 4 Intensity: Computer Support Specialists 11 5 Intensity: Computer Systems Analysts 7 6 Intensity: Database and Network Administrators 15 7 Intensity: Agricultural and Food Scientists 38 8 Intensity: Biochemists and Biophysicists 29 9 Intensity: Microbiologists per 1, Civilian Workers (212) 37 1 Intensity: Medical Scientists 17 University of Arizona 13

14 State Technology and Science Index 214: Arizona Technology and science workforce composite (cont.) Arizona s human capital capacity Rank in human capital investment composite Indicators 214 Rankings Intensity: Physicists 2 12 Intensity: Other Life and Physical Science Occupations Intensity: Electronics Engineers 4 14 Intensity: Electrical Engineers Intensity: Computer Hardware Engineers 5 16 Intensity: Biomedical Engineers 9 17 Intensity: Other Engineers Regional innovation life cycle Conclusions: Human capital formation 1) Make higher education more affordable 2) Make higher education more accessible 3) Increase higher education graduation rates 4) Strengthen coordination between higher education institutions and industries 5) Promote research and development University of Arizona 14

15 A special thank you to for sponsoring today s event. University of Arizona 15

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