TENNESSEE S ECONOMY: Implications for Economic Development

Transcription

1 TENNESSEE S ECONOMY: Implications for Economic Development William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville August 2005

2 U.S. ECONOMY W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 17

3 Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2000 Dollars) Percent Change from Previous Qtr SAAR Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2 99Q2 00Q2 01Q2 02Q2 03Q2 04Q2 05Q2 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 18

4 Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2000 Dollars) 6 Percent Change from Previous Quarter Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2 99Q2 00Q2 01Q2 02Q2 03Q2 04Q2 05Q2 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 19

5 Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices $70.00 $2.50 $60.00 Crude Oil Gasoline $2.00 Crude Oil, Dollars Per Barrel $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $1.50 $1.00 Gasoline, Dollars Per Gallon $10.00 $0.50 $ $0.00 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 20

6 Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices, Inflation Adjusted $80.00 $3.00 Crude Oil, Dollars Per Barrel $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 Crude Oil Gasoline $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Gasoline, Dollars Per Gallon $10.00 $0.50 $ $0.00 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 21

7 Effective Federal Funds Rate Rate Jan- 97 Jul- 97 Jan- 98 Jul- 98 Jan- 99 Jul- 99 Jan- 00 Jul- 00 Jan- 01 Jul- 01 Jan- 02 Jul- 02 Jan- 03 Jul- 03 Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul- 05 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 22

8 Growth in Quarterly Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment (Chained 2000 Dollars) 20 Percent Change from Previous Quarter Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2 99Q2 00Q2 01Q2 02Q2 03Q2 04Q2 05Q2 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 23

9 U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate, and Real Exports Less Imports Exchange Rate U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate 0.2 Exports less Imports Exports - Imports, Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 24

10 TENNESSEE ECONOMY in PERSPECTIVE W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 25

11 TN and U.S. Nonagricultural Job Growth 4.0% Compound Annual Growth 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% TN U.S. 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 26

12 TN and U.S. Nonag Job Growth (Quarter Ending June 2005) 3-month Moving Average 5.0% 4.0% Percent Change, Year Ago 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% TN U.S. -2.0% -3.0% Jun- 94 Jun- 95 Jun- 96 Jun- 97 Jun- 98 Jun- 99 Jun- 00 Jun- 01 Jun- 02 Jun- 03 Jun- 04 Jun- 05 W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 27

13 Nonag Employment Growth, MSAs [Quarter Ending June 2004 to June 2005] 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Knox Nash Memphis Chat Kingsport- Bristol Total W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 28

14 Employment Growth, % 3.0% Annual Growth Rate 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Big MSAs Less Center Counties Non MSA Counties Adjacent MSA Other MSAs Non-MSA Counties Not Adjacent to MSA 4 Largest Counties W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 29

15 Distribution of Nonag Jobs, 2004 Mfg 11.0% Const 5.3% Financial, Info, Prof & Bus Services 21.0% Mfg 15.4% Const 4.3% Financial, Info, Prof & Bus Services 17.8% Trade, Trans, Util 19.4% Other 4.5% Educ, Health & Social Serv 12.9% U.S. Govt 16.5% Leisure & Hospitality 9.4% Trade, Trans, Util 21.8% Other 4.0% TN Educ, Health & Social Serv 11.9% Leisure & Hospitality 9.4% Govt 15.4% W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 30

16 Tennessee Job Growth, by Sector [Quarter Ending June 2004 to June 2005] 3% 2% 1% Growth 0% % -2% -3% Educ & Health Serv Const Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Trade, Trans, Util Prof & Bus Services Dur Total Other Serv Nat Res & Mining Govt Non-Dur Infor W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 31

17 Tennessee Manufacturing Jobs, Thousands Durables Nondurables W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 32

18 High-Tech Employment, , CA VA MA GA CO MD NC AL TN KY LA AR MS WV HI WY W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 33

19 High-Tech Employment as a Percent of Private Employment, % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% CO VA MA MD CA GA AL NC KY HI AR TN WV LA WY MS W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 34

20 High-Tech Payroll as a Percent of Total Wages, % 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% CO VA MA CA MD GA NC AL KY TN AR WV LA MS WY W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 35

21 Per Capita Personal Income, Tennessee and Southeastern States, 2004 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 MS AR WV SC LA KY AL NC TN GA FL US VA W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 36

22 TN Per Capita Personal Income As a Percent of U.S., % 92% 88% 84% 80% W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 37

23 POPULATION W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 38

24 Tennessee and U.S. Compound Annual Population Growth 3% Compound Annual Growth _ 2% 1% 0% TN U.S. 1980s 1990s 2000s W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 39

25 TN Population Growth, Less than state average 1.4% 1.4% - 2.0% Greater than 2.0% W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 40

26 Percent of Population Growth that was Foreign Born 40% 30% 1990s 1980s 20% 10% 0% United States Tennessee W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 41

27 EDUCATION W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 42

28 Educational Attainment of the Population 25 Years and Over, Percent With at Least a H.S. Degree, Southeastern States, TN = 41st Percent VA FL GA U.S. SC MS TN AL KY NC WV AR LA W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 43

29 Educational Attainment of Persons 25 Years and Over, Percent with at Least a High School Degree, 2000 TN = 75.9% U.S. = 80.4% 55.0% to 65.0% 65.1% to 75.9% Greater than 75.9% W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 44

30 Educational Attainment, Tennessee Metro vs. Non-Metro, % 40% 30% Metro Non-Metro 20% 10% 0% Not a H.S. Grad H.S. Degree Some College Associate's Degree At Least Bachelor's Degree W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 45

31 Average Per Capita Personal Income of Tennessee Counties as a Percent of U.S. Per Capita Personal Income TN Counties Below State Avg H.S. Education Attainment TN Counties Above State Avg H.S. Education Attainment 80 Percent W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 46

32 Current Spending Per Pupil for Elementary- Secondary Education, $10,000 $8,000 U.S. Avg = $8,019 TN = 44th $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 WV VA GA SC LA KY NC FL AR AL TN MS W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 47

33 TAX STRUCTURE W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 48

34 State & Local Taxes as a Percent of Personal Income, % 10% 8% 6% WV LA KY MS U.S. AR GA NC SC VA FL AL TN W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 49

35 Actual as Percent of Estimate, Total and General Fund, FY % 106% total gen fund 102% 98% 94% 90% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 50

36 Tennessee State Appropriations, Compound Annual Growth, % 12% 8% 4% 0% Personal Income = 5.9% Inflation + Pop = 4.6% Compound Annual Growth, Tenncare / Medicaid Total K-12 Educ Corrections Transportation Higher Educ Health & Environ State Shared Human Services W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 51

37 U.S. and Tennessee Sales Tax Base as a Percent of Personal Income 70% 60% Tennessee 50% 40% United States 30% W.F. Fox, CBER, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 52