WWF - SARPO Occasional Paper Number 1. June 2002
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1 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AERIAL CENSUS RESULTS FOR ELEPHANT IN ZIMBABWE: 2001 K.M. Dunham & C.S. Mackie WWF - SARPO Occasional Paper Number 1 June 2002 This census was carried out jointly by the Department of s and Wild Life Management and WWF-SARPO (WWF Project No: ZW 0025). This report has also been published by the Department of s and Wild Life Management. The 2001 aerial survey and this publication were made possible through support made available by the Office of USAID Harare under the terms of project and grant The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of USAID. This material has been produced by the authority of, and for the use of CAMPFIRE in Zimbabwe, for information purposes only.
2 SUMMARY The principal populations of elephants in Zimbabwe were surveyed from the air during the period July to October These populations are located in north-west Matabeleland, the Sebungwe region, the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley and the south-east lowveld. The total area surveyed was km 2. This was the first time since 1998 that all these populations were studied during the same year. The surveys were sample counts and the methods followed those used during previous surveys. The Save Valley Conservancy was included in the national elephant survey for the first time. There were estimated to be elephants (+/- 95 % confidence interval 8.0 %, or 7079 elephants) in the regions surveyed from the air. This was the highest and most precise estimate ever obtained for the total number of elephants in Zimbabwe s principal populations. The lower and upper confidence limits of this mean estimate were and elephants. There are known to be several small sub-populations of elephants occurring outside these survey areas, and estimates or guesstimates of the numbers of animals in these subpopulations were obtained from people familiar with them. Elephants occurred at 12 locations outside the survey regions and the total number of elephants in these sub-populations was probably about Thus, there were estimated to be, in total, elephants in Zimbabwe during the 2001 dry season. It is more practical to take account of the confidence limits for the estimate from the air surveys and state that there were between about and elephants in Zimbabwe during the 2001 dry season. Almost 90 % of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate and about 50 % were in Hwange. In the regions surveyed from the air, there were, in total, an estimated 86 fresh carcasses of elephants, 186 recent carcasses and 3209 old carcasses. Overall, these carcasses formed 3.8 % of all elephants (live and dead) estimated to be in these regions. The carcass ratio varied from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe. 1
3 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY...1 LIST OF TABLES...3 LIST OF MAPS...5 INTRODUCTION...6 METHODS...6 Aerial Surveys...6 Survey Areas...6 Transect Surveys...6 Block Counts...9 Data Analysis...9 Small Populations...10 RESULTS...10 Small Populations...10 Aerial Surveys...13 North-west Matabeleland...13 Zambezi Valley...13 Sebungwe...13 South-east Lowveld...13 Zimbabwe...16 Elephant Carcasses...16 REFERENCES...17 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...18 APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls, elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during Population estimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16) Notes about Tables
4 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys...8 Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses...8 Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...27 Save Valley Conservancy...27 Gonarezhou...27 North-west Matabeleland...27 Zambezi Valley...28 Sebungwe...28 Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...29 Save Valley Conservancy...29 Gonarezhou...29 North-west Matabeleland...29 Zambezi Valley...30 Sebungwe...30 Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...31 Save Valley Conservancy...31 Gonarezhou...31 North-west Matabeleland...31 Zambezi Valley...32 Sebungwe...32 Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...33 Save Valley Conservancy...33 Gonarezhou...33 North-west Matabeleland...33 Zambezi Valley...34 Sebungwe...34 Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air
5 Save Valley Conservancy...35 Gonarezhou...35 North-west Matabeleland...35 Zambezi Valley...36 Sebungwe...36 Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air...37 Save Valley Conservancy...37 Gonarezhou...37 North-west Matabeleland...37 Zambezi Valley...38 Sebungwe
6 LIST OF MAPS Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe. 20 Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe...21 Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe...22 Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001, in relation to land use
7 INTRODUCTION In order to assess the status of the elephant population in Zimbabwe, sample aerial surveys of the principal sub-populations were conducted during the 2001 dry season. This was the first time since 1998 that all principal sub-populations were surveyed during the same year. The methods used closely followed those utilised during earlier surveys, so that the results of the 2001 surveys are comparable with those from previous surveys. The Save Valley Conservancy was included in the national air survey programme for the first time. There are known to be several sub-populations of elephant outside the regions surveyed from the air. But there are relatively few elephants in these sub-populations and so it would not have been cost-effective to include them in the air survey programme. Nevertheless, an attempt is made here to consider these small sub-populations when deriving an estimate of the total number of elephants in Zimbabwe. 6 METHODS Aerial Surveys Survey Areas Elephant populations were surveyed from the air in five regions of Zimbabwe, namely northwest Matabeleland, Gonarezhou, Save Valley Conservancy, the Sebungwe, and the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley. The procedures used followed those well established for aerial surveys of African large herbivores (Norton Griffiths 1978) and utilised during earlier surveys of elephants in Zimbabwe. Detailed reports of the 2001 surveys are provided by Dunham (2002a,b,c) and Mackie (2002a,b). The entire survey area covered km 2 and was divided into 86 strata (subdivisions) (Table 1). Strata boundaries were drawn so that elephant density within a stratum was spatially uniform, and the boundaries were the same as those used during previous surveys. Transect Surveys Regularly-spaced, parallel transects (flight lines) were positioned across each stratum in areas of generally flattish ground. These areas included all of the north-west Matabeleland, Gonarezhou and Save Valley Conservancy, the Zambezi Valley floor and all of the Sebungwe except for the hills of Matusadona NP and Kanyati. Transect surveys were undertaken during the period 14 August 6 October Transects were arranged at right angles to the principal environmental feature within a stratum for example, transects crossed major river systems. Within each stratum, transect orientation was the same as that used during previous surveys. Sampling intensity (i.e. the percentage of the study area that was actually surveyed) varied between regions and, in each region, was similar to that used during previous surveys. The distance between adjacent transects varied between strata, according to the planned sampling intensity in each stratum. The latter was determined by predicting that the elephant density in each stratum would be similar to that observed during any surveys in 1997, 1998 and/or 1999 (see Gibson (1992) for method). As a consequence, those strata expected to contain large numbers of elephants were
8 sampled more intensively (i.e. transects were closer together) than strata expected to contain few elephants. Transect spacings generally varied from 1.5 km in strata expected to contain many elephants, to 10 km in strata expected to contain few. The Save Valley Conservancy was expected to contain relatively few elephants. Nevertheless, sampling intensity was high, in part because this was the first time that this region had been included in the national elephant census. Through this survey, it was hoped to provide good baseline data for the planning of future surveys. In addition, a high sampling intensity should increase the precision of the population estimates for elephants (and other large herbivores). Surveys were designed using software that was custom-written by WWF for this purpose. Given the latitude/longitude co-ordinates that describe a stratum boundary, the transect orientation, the transect spacing and a random number, this software generates transects (flight lines), with the first transect offset from the end of the stratum by a random distance. The start and end points for each transect were transferred as waypoints to a GPS receiver in the aircraft (a Cessna 206) prior to flying each stratum. During surveys, the plane was flown at approximately 160 km per hour at about 300 feet above ground level (agl). The aircraft crew consisted of four people, who could talk to one another through an intercom system. The crew were: the pilot, who was responsible for flying the plane and navigating along the transects, by reference to the GPS receiver. the recorder, who sat next to the pilot and was responsible for recording: the actual height of the aircraft every 30 seconds while flying along transects (from a radar altimeter); the time taken to fly each transect (using a stopwatch); the number of elephants seen by observers and, for each group, its GPS location and the time since the start of the transect. two experienced observers, who sat behind the pilot and recorder. The observers were responsible for: looking for elephants and carcasses, and counting those seen within the counting strips; calling all sightings of these to the recorder; differentiating groups of elephant bulls from cow herds (although the latter may have included some bulls); classifying the age since death for elephant carcasses (see Table 2 for details). On each side of the plane, a counting strip was defined by two fibreglass rods that were attached to the wing strut, so that the rods pointed backwards and parallel to the ground during level flight. The distance between the rods on each strut was arranged so that, when the aircraft was flying at 300 feet agl, the distance represented a strip about 150 m wide on the ground. Each rod was marked with a small piece of tape to provide the observers with a decision point (at this point the observer decided whether an animal was in or out of the strip). For each regional survey, the strip widths were calibrated by flying the aircraft at right angles across an airstrip that had large-sized numbers arranged at 10 meter intervals along the side of the airstrip. Each observer noted the largest and smallest number within his strip and the recorder noted the aircraft s height. The nominal combined strip width at 300 feet agl was determined by averaging the combined strip widths, after adjusting these to 300 feet agl. The nominal strip widths for the regional surveys are given in Table 1. 7
9 Region Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys Area Dates Number of strata (km 2 ) sampled Percent of area sampled Mean combined strip width at 300 feet agl (meters) Transect surveys Block count s Total 8 Mean search intensity (minutes km -2 ) Save Valley September Conservancy 6 October Gonarezhou (for 2 strata) August (for 6 strata) North-west Matabeleland September Zambezi July Valley September Sebungwe July 30 August Totals km Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses Carcass category Definition 1 Fresh: intact; white droppings of vultures visible; vegetation trampled; fluid stain on ground around carcass visible (animal likely to have died within the last 3 months). 2 Recent: pieces of hide still attached; skeleton still partly articulated; no vulture droppings; no trampled vegetation; no fluid stain evident (less than 1 year old, but generally since the last rainy season, i.e. 3 to 8 months old). 3 Old: bones scattered and bleached (probably died during or before the last rainy season, i.e. more than 8 months old but generally more than 1 year old and up to several years old).
10 Block Counts In hilly areas (the Chewore Hills and the hills south of the Zambezi escarpment, stretching from Matusadona NP in the west to Mavuradonha Wilderness Area in the east), block counts were used to count elephants. Blocks of land were defined on 1: scale maps using features, such as drainage lines or watersheds, that would be recognisable from the air. The area of these blocks was usually 5-25 km 2. Blocks to be counted were selected with a probability proportional to their area (by using random numbers as map co-ordinates). Consequently, large blocks were more likely to be selected for counting than small blocks. A pilot and one observer/recorder in a Piper Super Cub aircraft searched each block until it was believed that all elephants within it were seen. The recorder noted the number of elephants and elephant carcasses, and the time taken to search each block. Block counts were undertaken during the period 19 July 8 August Data Analysis For strata surveyed with transects, the estimated number of elephants (and carcasses) in a stratum and the confidence intervals of the estimates were calculated with WWF s custom software (using method 2 of Jolly (1969)). The software determined the actual combined strip width for each transect from the mean flying height for that transect and the nominal combined strip width at 300 feet agl. Transect area was the product of the actual combined strip width and transect length. The mean density of elephants in a stratum was calculated from the numbers of elephants seen within strips and the transect areas. The population estimate was the product of the mean density and the stratum area. For strata surveyed with block counts, population estimates and confidence intervals were calculated similarly (using method 3 of Jolly (1969)). Population estimates for the entire study area, the five survey regions within it and for various administrative units within those regions were calculated as the sum of the estimates for the individual strata within each land unit. The 95 % confidence interval (CI) of the population estimate for any land unit that comprised more than one stratum was calculated using the method of Gasaway et al. (1986). From the confidence interval, lower and upper 95 % confidence limits to the population estimate were calculated. The 95 % confidence limits can be interpreted to indicate that: there is a 95 % certainty that the true number of elephants lies between the lower and upper limits; or that there is just one chance in twenty that the true number of elephants lies outside the range defined by the lower and upper limits. Strata boundaries did not always coincide with the boundaries of administrative areas and some compromises have been made in this part of the analysis. For example, in the tables that accompany this report, Hwange includes Deka Safari Area, and the Dande stratum includes Dande Safari Area and some communal land: in this analysis, it is included within Guruve Communal Area, because safari hunting rights in Dande SA are leased to Guruve Rural District Council. Search intensity (in minutes per square kilometre) for a stratum was calculated as the total time spent flying all transects (or blocks) within that stratum, divided by the total area of those transects (or blocks). The greater the search intensity, the less the probability that observers did not observe animals that were within the strips. No corrections have been applied to any of the estimates to compensate for any undercounting or missed animals.
11 The carcass ratio (really a percentage) was calculated as the estimated number of all elephant carcasses as a percentage of the estimated number of all elephants, i.e. live elephants plus dead ones (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992). 10 Small Populations Biologists, managers, owners and/or safari operators working in areas occupied by the small populations of elephants not surveyed from the air were asked to provide their assessment of the status of the elephant population during the 2001 dry season (ideally, during September). The assessment included: up to three estimates of the number of elephants (minimum number, probable number and maximum number); any information to support these estimates (for example, sightings or survey data); the composition of the population (for example, bulls, cow herds, or both); and the elephants distributional range and/or seasonal movements. Captive elephants were excluded from this assessment. RESULTS Small Populations Outside the regions surveyed from the air, there were estimated to be about 535 elephants at nine locations for which fairly precise estimates were available (Table 3). There were another three locations (Limpopo River, Nyatana Area and Kavira Forest Land) for which reliable information was lacking and the stated elephant numbers were no more than guesses: there might be another 450 elephants in these areas. Thus, there were, in total, about 1000 elephants in the locations not covered by the air surveys. The elephant bulls on Protea Farm moved there from, presumably, the Zambezi escarpment hills, while the Shangani bulls are believed to have come from the Hwange area. The origins of the bulls near Plumtree are not known, but elephants on Sentinel and Nottingham Ranches moved there from Botswana during (Selier 2001). Elephants were reintroduced to the Bubiana, Bubi and Chiredzi River Conservancies within the last decade. Malilangwe Conservancy is adjacent to Gonarezhou NP and the elephants there form part of the Gonarezhou population.
12 11 Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of 2001 Site Number of elephants Composition Authority Notes (see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable Maximum Shangani Ranch Bulls C.M. Swanepoel 1. Group of 43 bulls seen by ranch staff during August Number varies seasonally: fewer animals seen during wet season. Bubiana Conservancy Bulls & cow herds Malilangwe Conservancy & Hippo Valley Estates Game Section 116 Bulls & cow herds Hartley Safari Area Bulls & cow herds Chiredzi River Conservancy Protea Farm (30 km north of Karoi) M. Jones 1. Approximately 100 elephants before land invasion by squatters. 2. Unknown number of animals known to have moved off since land invasions. S. Clegg 116 and 105 elephants seen during two total-area surveys by helicopter during September A. Van Eeden 1. Saw a single herd (family unit) of about 100 there during May 2001 and again during early November Saw a herd of 8 bulls during May 2001 and a group of 12 bulls was seen by another hunter Bulls & cows T. Ballance elephants released as calves during 1992 drought. 2. Three calves born during One or two bulls wander through each year (from Gonarezhou NP?). 7 7 Bulls A. Van Leenhoff & C. Mackie 7 bulls seen by C.M. during July 2001
13 Site Number of elephants Composition Authority Notes (see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable Maximum Bubi River Conservancy 53 Bulls & cow herds K. Leathem are translocated animals and their offspring, and some bulls that arrived naturally. 2. Other 16 are bulls that moved from Sentinel Ranch area during first quarter of Shashe River, Tuli Safari Area, Maramani Communal Land, and Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches Home Farm & Greystone Ranches (40 km southsouth-east of Plumtree) Limpopo River, Chikwarakwara area, Sengwe Communal Land Nyatana Wildlife Management Area 92 Bulls & cow herds J. Selier (2001) Total-area survey by plane during July 2001, with flight strips 1 km wide (narrower over thick riverine vegetation). Saw 4 bulls & 78 elephants in cow herds on Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches, 10 elephants along the Shashe River in Mambali Communal Land, and no elephants in Tuli Safari Area or Maramani Communal Land. Part of a population which, during July 2001, numbered >1238 animals and was centred on the Botswana s Northern Tuli Game Reserve. 3 or 4 Bulls G. Robertson Fresh footprints of 3 or 4 young-adult bulls seen in bed of Ingwizi River during July ? Bulls? A. Strauss Regular movement of elephants across Limpopo River, between this area and South Africa s Kruger NP. 150? Bulls & cows R. Gwazani & F. Murindagomo (2001) Kavira Forest Land +? Bulls & cow herds E. Mufandaedza, D. Littleton 12 These authors believe that there are 75 males and 75 females in this area, but, on the basis of all the surveys conducted during 2001, a 1:1 sex ratio is very unlikely. Thus, the figure of 150 is probably little more than a guess. But the authors did find elephant dung along transects in the area and so the presence of elephants is confirmed. 1. Elephants present, but no estimate of numbers. 2. During dry season of 2000, bulls and cow herds present, totalling about 100 animals.
14 Aerial Surveys Summaries of the results of the aerial surveys are given in Tables 5-16, which provide estimates of the numbers of elephants, bulls, elephants in cow herds and elephant carcasses in each region (Tables 5-10) and in each administrative area (Tables 11-16). Detailed results are contained in the separate survey reports (Dunham 2002a,b,c, Mackie 2002a,b). The major findings of the study are presented below and in Table North-west Matabeleland The largest population of elephants in Zimbabwe was in north-west Matabeleland, where there were an estimated elephants (+/- CI 6088). Most (90 %) of these were in Hwange NP (Map 1). Hwange NP contained an estimated (+/- CI 5838) elephants, which represented 50 % of Zimbabwe s elephant population. Not only was the number of elephants in the national park very large, but the density of elephants, which averaged 2.9 elephants km -2, was greater here than in any other national park or safari area in Zimbabwe. The elephants in north-west Matabeleland form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with northern Botswana. Zambezi Valley There were an estimated elephants (+/- CI 2522) in the Zambezi Valley survey region, which stretched from Kariba dam eastwards to the Mavuradonha hills (Map 2). This total included 3708 elephants (+/- CI 925) in Mana Pools NP and another 3174 (+/- CI 1518) in the communal areas (including Dande Safari Area). The elephants in the Zambezi Valley survey region form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with the Lower Zambezi NP in Zambia and the Magoe district of Mozambique. Sebungwe There were estimated to be elephants (+/- CI 2124) in the Sebungwe region, south of Lake Kariba (Map 3). This total included 4033 elephants (+/- CI 1110) in the Kariba, Binga and north Gokwe communal areas and another 5011 (+/- CI 1219) in Chizarira NP. Elephant density in this national park averaged 2.4 elephants km -2. Only in Hwange NP was a greater density than this recorded during Unlike the other elephant populations in Zimbabwe, the Sebungwe population is largely closed, being isolated by Lake Kariba, human settlement, and areas of communal and commercial agriculture. South-east Lowveld There were estimated to be 4992 elephants (+/- CI 1637) in the Gonarezhou area and 535 elephants (+/- CI 322) in the Save Valley Conservancy (Map 4). Together with 116 elephants in Malilangwe Conservancy and 28 in Chiredzi River Conservancy, these form the south-east lowveld population. But most (88 %) of the elephants in this region were in Gonarezhou NP, where the population was estimated to be 4987 (+/- CI 1637) elephants. The eastern boundary of this national park is the international border with Mozambique and elephants in Gonarezhou NP are free to cross it. The elephants in the south-east lowveld formed just 6 % of Zimbabwe s total elephant population.
15 14 Area or Land Use Category Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during 2001 Population estimate for: NP / SA Land use Region category Population estimate as percentage of regional population estimate Population estimate as percentage of national population estimate North-west Matabeleland Hwange NP Zambezi NP Matetsi/Kazuma/Panda Masuie Parks & Wild Life Estate Communal Areas Forest Areas/Private Land NW Matabeleland region Zambezi Valley Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Parks & Wild Life Estate Communal Areas / Mavuradonha WA Zambezi Valley region Sebungwe Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Parks & Wild Life Estate Communal Areas Forest Area Sebungwe region
16 15 Area or Land Use Category Population estimate for: NP / SA Land use Region category Population estimate as percentage of regional population estimate Population estimate as percentage of national population estimate South-east Lowveld Gonarezhou NP Malapati SA Parks & Wild Life Estate Save Valley Conservancy Malilangwe & Chiredzi R. Conserv Communal Area South-east Lowveld region Other locations Hartley SA Tuli SA Parks & Wild Life Estate Other Other locations Total for Parks & Wild Life Estate % Total Population Estimate for Zimbabwe Note: There may be small errors in the totals in this table, due to rounding estimates to zero decimal places
17 Zimbabwe There were estimated to be (+/- CI 7079) elephants in the five aerial survey regions, plus approximately 1000 elephants outside these. Thus, during the 2001 dry season, there were estimated to be between about and elephants in Zimbabwe. Almost 90 % of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate (Map 5). The figure of elephants in the air survey regions is the highest ever estimate. The methods utilised were the same as those used during previous aerial surveys and so it is clear that the number of elephants within the country is continuing to increase (see Price Waterhouse Consultants (1996) for previous estimates). 16 Elephant Carcasses Relatively few fresh or recent carcasses were seen (Tables 8 & 9). Carcass ratios varied regionally, from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy, to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe and the mean carcass ratio was 3.8 % (Table 10). This low ratio also suggests that the number of elephants in Zimbabwe is increasing, because a ratio of 2-8 % usually indicates a stable or increasing population number, while a ratio greater than 8 % is indicative of a declining population number (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992). Carcass ratios greater than 8 % were recorded in Zambezi, the southern part of Matetsi Safari Area, Chete Safari Area and the Binga communal lands (Table 16). In the other areas where the carcass ratio exceeded 8 % (Malapati SA, Sikumi Forest and the communal lands east of Hwange NP, and Mavuradonha Wilderness Area), few elephants live or dead were seen and hence the sample sizes may be too small to calculate reliable ratios.
18 REFERENCES Douglas-Hamilton, I., Michelmore, F. & Inamdar, A. (1992). African Elephant Database. UNEP, Nairobi. Dunham, K.M. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Gonarezhou and some bordering lands, Zimbabwe: Project Paper no. 80, WWF- SARPO, Harare. Dunham, K.M. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in north-west Matabeleland, Zimbabwe: Project Paper no. 81, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Dunham, K.M. (2002c). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in the Save Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe: Project Paper no. 79, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Gasaway, W.C., DuBois, S.D. Reed, D.J. & Harbo, S.J. (1986). Estimating moose population parameters from aerial surveys. Biological Papers of the University of Alaska pp. Gibson, D. (1992). Formulae for aerial survey analysis. In: Elephant management in Zimbabwe. Second edition. Eds Martin, R.B., Craig, G.C., Booth, V.R. & Conybeare, A.M.G. pp DNPWLM, Harare. Gwazani, R. & Murindagomo, F. (2001). Nyatana Wildlife Management Area (NWMA) Resource Inventory. WWF-SARPO, Harare. Jolly, G.M. (1969). Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. E. Afr. Agric. For. J. 34: Mackie, C. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe: Project Paper no. 77, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Mackie, C. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Sebungwe Region, Zimbabwe: Project Paper no. 78, WWF-SARPO, Harare. Norton Griffiths, M. (1978). Counting Animals. Second edition. African Wildlife Leadership Foundation, Nairobi. Price Waterhouse Consultants. (1996). Elephant census in Zimbabwe: 1980 to An analysis and review. PWC, Harare. Selier, J. (2001). Final Report on the Progress of the Central Limpopo Valley Elephant Research Project. Unpublished report. Centre for Wildlife Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. 17
19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following staff members of the DNPWLM served as observers or recorders during the aerial surveys: Mr Ngoni Cheweshe; Mr David Chipesi; Ms Tracy Couto; Mr Bruce Davison; Mr Crispin Jakopo; Mr Norman Monks; and Mr Fungai Muroki. The survey planes were piloted by Mr Jon Cadd and Mr Charles Mackie. The following people provided information about small populations of elephants: Mr Tore Ballance; Mrs Sarah Clegg; Mr Mike Jones; Mr Kevin Leathem; Mr Derek Littleton; Mr Edward Mufandaedza; Mr Graham Robertson; Ms Jeanetta Selier; Mr Alec Strauss; Dr Clive Swanepoel; Mr Andre Van Eeden; and Mr Alex Van Leenhoff. Dr Ivan Bond of WWF SARPO managed the aerial survey programme, but still retained his sense of humour. He and Dr Russell Taylor reviewed drafts of this report and the regional survey reports. The survey programme was funded by USAID. Additional support for the Gonarezhou survey was provided by the Malilangwe Conservation Trust, and for the Save Valley Conservancy survey by the International Finance Corporation (SME programme). 18
20 Land use Safari Area Communal Area Private Land Forest Land Elephant density (per sq. km) Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe. Map shows (from north to south) Zambezi, Kazuma Pan and Hwange s; the northern and southern sections of Matetsi Safari Area, and Deka Safari Area; and Panda Masuie, Kazuma, Sikumi and Ngamo Forest Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
21 Elephant density (per sq. km) Land use Safari Area Communal Land Private Land Communal Land Wilderness Area 31.0 Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe. Map shows Mana Pools, Mavuradonha Wilderness Area and (clockwise from south-west) Charara, Hurungwe, Sapi, Chewore, Dande and Doma Safari Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
22 21 Land use Safari Area Communal Land Private Land Forest Area -17 Elephant density (per sq. km) Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe. Map shows (from north to south) Matusadona and Chizarira s, Chete and Chirisa Safari Areas, and Sijarira Forest Area. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
23 Land use Safari Area Communal Area Private Land Conservancy Elephant density (per sq. km) Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe. Map shows Gonarezhou, Malapati Safari Area and the Save Valley Conservancy. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.
24 23 Land use Safari Area Communal Land Commercial Land Forest Land Conservancy Resettlement Area Elephant density (per sq. km) Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001, in relation to land use. Site 1, Protea Farm; site 2, Nyatana Wildlife Management Area; site 3, Hartley Safari Area; site 4, Kavira Forest Land; site 5, Shangani Ranch; site 6, Home Farm and Greystone Ranches; site 7, Mambali Communal Land; site 8, Tuli Safari Area; site 9, Maramani Communal Land; site 10, Sentinel and Nottingham Ranches; site 11, Bubiana Conservancy; site 12, Bubi Valley Conservancy; site 13, Chiredzi River Conservancy; site 14, Malilangwe Conservancy; site 15, Sengwe Communal Land
25 APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls, elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during Population estimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16). 24 Notes about Tables 1. Confidence intervals and confidence limits are 95 % confidence intervals and limits. No. seen is the number seen in the strips during the surveys. 2. There may be small errors in the totals given in some tables. These are rounding errors: estimates, variances and sums were calculated with great precision in a spreadsheet, before being rounded to zero decimal places. 3. Abbreviations are as follows: Abbreviation Meaning CA Communal Area CI Confidence Interval Confidence Limit FA Forest Area NP NW Mat North-west Matabeleland PWE Parks & Wild Life Estate SA Safari Area SVC Save Valley Conservancy WA Wilderness Area ZV Zambezi Valley
26 Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals
27 Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Carcass Ratio Save Valley Conservancy Gonarezhou NW Matabeleland Zambezi Valley Sebungwe Totals
28 Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 27 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC Area Gonarezhou Estimate No. seen Varianc e % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP Safari Area Malapati SA Communal Area Mahenye Ward Totals Area Estimat e North-west Matabeleland No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA Matetsi SA north Matetsi SA south s Hwange NP Zambezi NP PWE subtotals Communal Areas Maitengwe CA Tsholotsho CA CA subtotals Forest Areas Ngamo Forest Sikumi Forest FA subtotals NW Mat Totals
29 Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 28 Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Hurungwe SA Sapi SA Chewore SA Charara SA Doma SA PWE subtotals Communal Areas Guruve CA Mukwichi CA CA subtotals Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA ZV Totals Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Chirisa SA Chete SA PWE subtotals Forest Area Sijarira Forest Communal Areas North Gokwe CA Binga CA Kariba CA CA subtotals Sebungwe Totals
30 Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 29 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP Safari Area Malapati SA Communal Area Mahenye Ward Totals North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA Matetsi SA north Matetsi SA south s Hwange NP Zambezi NP PWE subtotals Communal Areas Maitengwe CA Tsholotsho CA CA subtotals Forest Areas Ngamo Forest Sikumi Forest FA subtotals NW Mat Totals
31 Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 30 Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Hurungwe SA Sapi SA Chewore SA Charara SA Doma SA PWE subtotals Communal Areas Guruve CA Mukwichi CA CA subtotals Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA ZV Totals Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Chirisa SA Chete SA PWE subtotals Forest Area Sijarira Forest Communal Areas North Gokwe CA Binga CA Kariba CA CA subtotals Sebungwe Totals
32 31 Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP Safari Area Malapati SA Communal Area Mahenye Ward Totals North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA Matetsi SA north Matetsi SA south s Hwange NP Zambezi NP PWE subtotals Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA Maitengwe CA CA subtotals Forest Areas Ngamo Forest Sikumi Forest FA subtotals NW Mat Totals
33 Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 32 Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Hurungwe SA Sapi SA Chewore SA Charara SA Doma SA PWE subtotals Communal Areas Guruve CA Mukwichi CA CA subtotals Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA ZV Totals Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Chirisa SA Chete SA PWE subtotals Forest Area Sijarira Forest Communal Areas North Gokwe CA Binga CA Kariba CA CA subtotals Sebungwe Totals
34 Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 33 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP Safari Area Malapati Communal Area Mahenye Ward Totals North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA Matetsi SA north Matetsi SA south Hwange NP Zambezi NP PWE subtotals Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA Maitengwe CA CA subtotals Forest Areas Ngamo Forest Sikumi Forest FA subtotals NW Mat Totals
35 Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 34 Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Hurungwe SA Sapi SA Chewore SA Charara SA Doma SA PWE subtotals Communal Areas Guruve CA Mukwichi CA CA subtotals Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA ZV Totals Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Chirisa SA Chete SA PWE subtotals Forest Land Sijarira Forest Communal Areas North Gokwe CA Binga CA Kariba CA CA subtotals Sebungwe Totals
36 Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air 35 Save Valley Conservancy Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower SVC Gonarezhou Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI Lower Gonarezhou NP Safari Area Malapati SA Communal Area Mahenye Ward Totals North-west Matabeleland Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FA Kazuma Pan NP/FA Matetsi SA north Matetsi SA south s Hwange NP Zambezi NP PWE subtotals Communal Areas Tsholotsho CA Maitengwe CA CA subtotals Forest Areas Ngamo Forest Sikumi Forest FA subtotals
37 Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower 36 NW Mat Totals Zambezi Valley Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI Lower Mana Pools NP Safari Areas Hurungwe SA Sapi SA Chewore SA Charara SA Doma SA PWE subtotals Communal Areas Guruve CA Mukwichi CA CA subtotals Wilderness Area Mavuradonha WA ZV Totals Area Estimate No. Seen Sebungwe Variance % CI Lower s Chizarira NP Matusadona NP Safari Areas Chirisa SA Chete SA PWE subtotals Forest Land Sijarira Forest Communal Areas North Gokwe CA Binga CA Kariba CA CA subtotals Sebungwe Totals
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