Wisconsin is Open for Business The State of the Wisconsin Construction Industry Building Advantage Wisconsin

Transcription

1 is Open for Business THE STATE OF THE WISCONSIN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY Building Advantage 2012 Spring Conference Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

2 is Open for Business FIRST OF ALL, YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WISCONSIN S ECONOMY 2

3 is Open for Business THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED AND SO MUST YOU 3

4 Percent is Open for Business ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery

5 is Open for Business JOBS RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 5

6 1995-I 1995-III 1996-I 1996-III 1997-I 1997-III 1998-I 1998-III 1999-I 1999-III 2000-I 2000-III 2001-I 2001-III 2002-I 2002-III 2003-I 2003-III 2004-I 2004-III 2005-I 2005-III 2006-I 2006-III 2007-I 2007-III 2008-I 2008-III 2009-I 2009-III 2010-I 2010-III 2011-I 2011-III is Open for Business HOUSING CREATION BELOW SUBSISTENCE Investment in Residential Housing, Billions of 2005 Dollars

7 is Open for Business HOUSING WHO WANTS TO BUILD NOW 45,000 40,000 Building Permits, 12 Month Total 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jul 11 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jan 10 Jul 09 Jan 09 Jul 08 Jan 08 Jul 07 Jan 07 Jul 06 Jan 06 Jul 05 Jan 05 Jul 04 Jan 04 Jul 03 Jan 03 Jul 02 Jan 02 Jul 01 Jan 01 7

8 Percent Change Over Prior Year is Open for Business HOUSING PRICING GOOD DEALS TO BE HAD 15% 10% FHFA Purchase Index 5% 0% -5% US WI -10% -15% Mar-00 Mar-99 Mar-98 Mar-97 Mar-96 Mar-95 Mar-94 Mar-93 Mar-92 Mar-01 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-02 Mar-11 8

9 Thousands of Units Percent is Open for Business HOUSING FINANCING HISTORIC 3,000 Relationship Between Housing Starts and Mortgage Rates Breaks Down , , , , Housing Starts 30-year Mortgage Rate (Right Axis) Apr-71 Jan-77 Oct-82 Jul-88 Apr-94 Jan-00 Oct-05 Jul-11 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau/Board of Governors Federal Reserve System/FRED 0.0 9

10 Index 1991q1=100 is Open for Business HOUSING NEW APPRECIATION PARADIGM Housing Prices Relative to Consumer Prices FHFA Index CPI Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-02 Mar-01 Mar-00 Mar-99 Mar-98 Mar-97 Mar-96 Mar-95 Mar-94 Mar-93 Mar-92 Mar-91 Mar-11 Mar-10 10

11 is Open for Business TAKE MY HOUSE PLEASE 11

12 is Open for Business THE GOOD NEWS FOR CONSTRUCTION SETTING A BOTTOM (?) 12

13 is Open for Business INTEREST IS TURNING UP IN FITS AND STARTS 13

14 is Open for Business CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT STILL DROPPING; DOWN A THIRD FROM PEAK 145, , , , ,000 95,000 85,000 75,000 65,000 Jobs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA 14

15 is Open for Business CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT MILWAUKEE AREA SITUATION NO BETTER 38,000 36,000 34,000 Milwaukee MSA Jobs 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22, ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA 15

16 is Open for Business U.S. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING WHICH WAY FROM HERE? $ Billions 1, 4 0 0, , 2 0 0, , 0 0 0, US Annual Spending T o t al C o nst ruct io n Resident ial Nonresident ial 8 0 0, , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 16

17 Millions is Open for Business WISCONSIN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING WHICH WAY FROM HERE? $12,000 $10,000 : Dollars of New COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL TOTAL REAL ESTATE $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: DOR, 17

18 Millions is Open for Business M7 CONSTRUCTION SPENDING WHICH WAY FROM HERE? $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 Milwaukee 7: Dollars of New COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL TOTAL REAL ESTATE $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Source: DOR, 18

19 is Open for Business HOUSING PLANS WHICH WAY FROM HERE? 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Wisco nsin N ew P rivately Owned H o using Unit P ermits 10,000 5, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 19

20 is Open for Business HOUSING PLANS DARE WE BE ENCOURAGED? 7,000 6,000 Milwaukee MSA New Privately Owned Housing Permits 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 20

21 OUTLOOK

22 Job Losses Relative to Peak Month is Open for Business JOB RECOVERY WILL TAKE TIME MORE THAN WE HAD HOPED 1.0% 0.0% Job Losses in Recent Recessions - - # of Months Since Recession Declaration % -2.0% -3.0% 1981 Recession 1990 Recession 2001 Recession Recesion -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Source: U.S. BLS, CES, Seasonally adjusted series Source: BLS, OEA 22

23 is Open for Business REAL EARNINGS ARE FLAT $38,000 $36,000 Real Average Annual Wage $34,000 $32,000 $30,000 $28,

24 Billions is Open for Business INTEREST INCOME TAKE HIT WITH LOW INTEREST RATES $1,500 $1,400 Personal Interest Income $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 24

25 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Percent is Open for Business HOUSEHOLD DEBT DELEVERAGING Household Debt as % of Disposable Income Source: Fed flow of Funds 25

26 is Open for Business HOME EQUITY WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTION NOW PART OF DELEVERAGING 26

27 Change over Prior Year $M REVOLVING CREDIT WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTION NOW PART OF DELEVERAGING is Open for Business 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, ,000 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul /01/ /01/ /01/2011 Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors 27

28 is Open for Business NO SAVINGS WAS USED FOR CONSUMPTION NOW PART OF DELEVERAGING Personal Savings, Billions of Dollars I 2000-III 2001-I 2001-III 2002-I 2002-III 2003-I 2003-III 2004-I 2004-III 2005-I 2005-III 2006-I 2006-III 2007-I 2007-III 2008-I 2008-III 2009-I 2009-III 2010-I 2010-III 2011-I 28

29 is Open for Business It is difficult to increase consumption when you: 1. have stagnant income, 2. are losing wealth, 3. paying down debt, 4. increasing savings, 5. and are paying more for food and gas. 29

30 is Open for Business CORPORATE PROFITS AT NEW RECORDS MOSTLY DUE TO COST CUTTING 30

31 is Open for Business MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND 31

32 Billions of 2005 $ is Open for Business CORPORATE PROFITS BUILDING CASH HOARD Change In Investment From th Qtr Private investment Residential q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3 2010q4 2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 32

33 is Open for Business INVESTMENT GROWTH IS IN PRODUCTIVITY, NOT EXPANSION Source: BEA, OEA 33

34 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 is Open for Business EXTENDING CREDIT BANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS $2,000 $1,500 Reserves of Depository Institutions (billions of dollars) $1,000 Required Reserves Total reserves $500 $0 -$500 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program 34

35 is Open for Business 35

36 is Open for Business RETAIL SALES USING THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS 36

37 is Open for Business BUSINESS CYCLE SEVERE FINALLY RECOVERED AFTER NINE QUARTERS $13,500 $13,400 $13,300 $13,200 $13,100 $13,000 $12,900 $12,800 $12,700 $12,600 Real GDP $12, I 2006-II 2006-III 2006-IV 2007-I 2007-II 2007-III 2007-IV 2008-I 2008-II 2008-III 2008-IV 2009-I 2009-II 2009-III 2009-IV 2010-I 2010-II 2010-III 2010-IV 2011-I 2011-II 2011-III 2011-IV Source: BEA, OEA 37

38 Year/Year Change is Open for Business WISCONSIN SALES TAX COLLECTIONS MOVING HIGHER 8.0% 6.0% Sales Tax Collections 3-Month Moving Average 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% 2007M M M M09 38

39 Year/Year Change is Open for Business WISCONSIN WITHHOLDING TAX COLLECTIONS MOVING HIGHER 12.0% 10.0% Withholding Collections 3-Month Moving Average 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2007M M M M09 39

40 Millions is Open for Business JOBS NUMBERS LOOKING BETTER RATE PICKING UP U.S. Jobs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 40

41 Thousands is Open for Business JOBS NUMBERS LOOKING BETTER RATE PICKING UP 3,000 2, Jobs 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 41

42 CONSTRUCTION WORKFORCE OUTLOOK

43 is Open for Business WISCONSIN CONSTRUCTION COMPOSITION AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Employment Composition of 13% 24% 63% Projected Percentage Employment Growth 5.4% Specialty Trade Contractors of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Heavy and Civil Engineering of Buildings 5.3% 11.9% Specialty Trade Contractors 4.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Source: Wi., DWD, Office of Economic Advisors 2008 Long Term Workforce Development Area Projections 43

44 SE WISCONSIN PROJECTED CONSTRUCTION JOBS COMPARED TO OTHER INDUSTRIES is Open for Business Government Inf., Prof. Serv., Other Percent of NonFarm Job-Base, % Projected Percent Employment Change 6.0% 8.2% 15.0% Leisure and Hospitality 5.9% 11.9% Ed. and Health Services 13.6% 22.9% Financial Activities Trans. and Utilities 1.6% 3.3% 4.2% 3.5% Trade -0.3% 15.2% Manufacturing -9.5% 18.3%, Mining, Nat. Res. 5.4% 4.0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 44 Source: WI, DWD, Office of Economic Advisors 2008 Long Term Workforce Development Area Projections

45 is Open for Business SE WISCONSIN CONSTRUCTION OCCUPATIONS PROJECTED GROWTH Office clerks, general Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1.5% 2.9% laborers % Electricians -3.9% -30 Numerical Change Proportional Change Carpenters % Managers of construction trades and extraction workers % Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters % Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators % Cost estimators % Source: WI, DWD, Office of Economic Advisors 2008 Long Term Workforce Development Area Projections 45

46 is Open for Business SE WISCONSIN CONSTRUCTION OCCUPATIONS NEW JOBS AND REPLACEMENTS New Jobs Cost Estimators Operating Engineers, and Other Equip. Operators Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Replacements Managers of Trades Workers Carpenters Heating, Air Cond., and Refrigeration Mechanics Electricians Laborers Bookkeeping and Auditing Clerks Office Clerks, General Annual Openings Source: Wi., DWD, Office of Economic Advisors 2008 Long Term Workforce Development Area Projections

47 Person Contracts is Open for Business ATTRACTION TO TRADES DECLINE AFFECTING MORE THAN JUST CONSTRUCTION 20,000 Apprentice Program Participating Persons All Trades Trades 15,000 10,000 5, Source: Department of Workforce Development, Bureau of Apprenticeship Standards; OEA 47

48 Person Registrants is Open for Business ATTRACTION TO TRADES NEW ENTRANTS PICKING UP AGAIN 5,000 4,000 Apprentice Program New Registrants All Trades Trades 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Department of Workforce Development, Bureau of Apprenticeship Standards; OEA 48

49 Person Registrations Person Contracts is Open for Business 1,400 1,200 1, Milwaukee Area Apprentice Program Participating Persons All Trades Trades Milwaukee Area Apprentice Program New Registrants All Trades Trades

50 is Open for Business IN CONCLUSION CONTINUED RECOVERY Recovery is self-sustaining. Employment may breach in Strength of recovery subject to consumer income and wealth uncertainty. Risks High unemployment dampens income growth. Prolonged high gasoline prices sap consumption. European Union fiscal problems wash over the global financial markets. 50

51 is Open for Business Questions? 51

52 is Open for Business CONTACT INFORMATION Dennis Winters Phone: Website: OEA website: 52