WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll

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1 WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll FOR RELEASE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. February 1, 2000 UNH Survey Center 8:00 A.M. (603) BOTH RACES TOO CLOSE TO CALL Durham, NH Bill Bradley has narrowed Al Gore s lead among New Hampshire Democrats. John McCain is holding his edge over George W. Bush among Republicans. Both races are too close to call. These findings are based on the WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll,* conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eight hundred, twenty-five (825) likely New Hampshire primary voters were interviewed between January 28 and January 31, 2000; 498 likely Republican primary voters and 327 likely Democratic primary voters. The potential sampling error for the survey is ±3.4%, the sampling error for the Republican sub-sample is ±4% and ±5% for the Democratic sub-sample. Democratic Primary An aggressive and energized Bill Bradley continues to close the gap with Al Gore just before the New Hampshire primary election today, but he may have left himself just short of victory. In the final WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire tracking poll, 46% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will vote for Bradley, 49% say they will vote for Al Gore, 1% will vote for some other candidate, and 4% remain undecided. Gore s lead over Bradley is well within the poll s margin of error making the race too close to call. Bradley has recently cut into Gore s lead among registered Democrats 49% of registered Democrats in the final WMUR / FOX News tracking poll say they will vote for Gore, 44% say they will vote for Bradley, 1% favor some other candidate and 5% remain undecided. Gore had earlier held significant leads over Bradley among registered Democrats. Independent voters have evenly split their votes between Bradley and Gore for several days. Gore is getting both credit and blame for his part in the Clinton administration. He gets credit from voters who have a favorable opinion of President Bill Clinton and leads Bradley among this group 58% to 38%. However, Bradley gets his strongest support from voters who have a neutral or unfavorable opinion of the President. Republican Primary John McCain is maintaining the lead he has held of George W. Bush for the past week. In the final WMUR / FOX News tracking poll, 41% of likely Republican primary voters say they will vote for McCain, 34% say they will vote for Bush, 13% say they will vote for Steve Forbes, 8% say they plan to vote for Alan Keyes, 1% favor other candidates, and 3% remain undecided. The GOP race has remained remarkably stable over the past week. McCain s lead over Bush is just within the polls s margin of error and this race is too close to call. If McCain manages to win the New Hampshire primary, he can thank independent voters for his victory. More than half (53%) of the independent voters who plan to vote in the Republican primary say they will vote for McCain, 21% say they will vote for Bush, 12% say they will vote for Forbes, 9% say they will vote for Keyes, 1% favor some other candidate, and 4% are undecided. Bush continues to lead McCain among registered Republicans, but by a considerably smaller margin than McCain s lead among independents. Forty-two percent of registered Republican voters favor Bush, 34% favor McCain, 13% favor Forbes, 8% favor Keyes, and 2% remain undecided. * We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The UNH Survey Center will conduct daily tracking until January 31, The tracking poll results will be reported each day.

2 WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey Center Turnout Turnout will be critical to the election. High turnout will result in more independents in the electorate and this will help both Bradley and McCain. Low turnout helps Bush and Gore because registered Democrats and Republicans are more likely to turn out and vote than are independents. The weather forecast for election day calls for partly cloudy skies over much of New Hampshire and no precipitation, so bad weather should not be a factor in reducing turnout. NH Republican Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Hatch* Keyes McCain Und. (N) January (FINAL) 0% 34% 13% 8% 41% 3% 498 January % 35% 13% 8% 41% 3% 538 January % 35% 15% -- 9% 38% 2% 487 January % 33% 16% -- 8% 41% 2% 495 January % 33% 15% -- 9% 40% 2% 508 January % 33% 14% -- 9% 41% 3% 520 January % 32% 13% -- 8% 43% 2% 521 January % 35% 12% 0% 8% 40% 3% 419 January % 37% 12% 1% 8% 38% 3% 381 Registration Status Undeclared Registered Republican * Withdrew 1/26/00 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided (N) January (FINAL) 46% 49% 1% 4% 327 January % 51% 0% 4% 347 January % 53% 0% 4% 340 January % 54% 1% 4% 346 January % 54% 0% 4% 394 January % 53% 0% 4% 406 January % 50% 0% 5% 393 January % 52% 0% 6% 338 January % 50% 1% 8% 280 Registration Status Registered Democrat Undeclared

3 NH GOP Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Other DK January % 37% 12% 8% 38% 1% 3% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

4 NH GOP Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Other DK January % 37% 12% 8% 38% 1% 3% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Most Important Issue Economy Health care Social Security Campaign finance reform Education Morality Foreign policy Taxes Gun control Abortion Candidate Quality Stands up for beliefs Understands complex issues Best chance to win in Nov Represents conservative issues Strong decisive leader Cares about average American Right experience

5 Likely Republican Primary Voters Second Choice Bush Forbes McCain Bradley Gore Other DK January % 16% 27% 5% 5% 15% 3% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) First Choice Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Likely Republican Primary Voters Certainty of Vote May Change Don't Certain Mind Know January % 33% 0% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) GOP Candidate Favored Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain

6 Most Important Issue Likely Republican Primary Voters Health Soc. Economy Care Sec. Educ. Morality Taxes Other January % 14% 12% 9% 11% 21% 19% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican Clinton - Favorable

7 Important Candidate Qualities Likely Republican Primary Voters Stands Knows Best Rep. Cares for Complex Chance Conser. Strong Avg. Right Beliefs Issues to Win Issues Leader Amer. Exper. DK January % 8% 5% 13% 17% 10% 8% 2% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years

8 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided January % 50% 1% 8% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable Primary-extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years

9 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided January % 50% 1% 8% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Most Important Issue Economy Health care Social Security Campaign finance reform Education Morality Foreign policy Taxes Gun control Abortion Candidate Quality Strong/decisive leader New ideas Not typical politician Right experience Best chance to win in Nov Stands up for what believes Loyal Democrat

10 Likely Democratic Primary Voters Second Choice McCain Bradley Gore Other DK January % 28% 23% 13% 7% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) First Choice Bradley Gore Likely Democratic Primary Voters Certainty of Vote May Change Don't Certain Mind Know January % 28% 0% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) DEM Candidate Favored Bradley Gore

11 Most Important Issue Likely Democratic Primary Voters Health Soc. Camp. Economy Care Sec. Finan. Educ. Other January % 33% 15% 5% 20% 17% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Bradley Gore Undecided Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years

12 Important Candidate Qualities Likely Democratic Primary Voters Not Best Stands Strong New Typical Right Chance For Loyal Leader Ideas Pol. Exper. to Win Beliefs Dem. DK January % 11% 7% 15% 2% 39% 2% 4% January January January January January January January January (FINAL) Bradley Gore Undecided Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years

Opinion on Private Garbage Collection in Scarborough Mixed

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Opinion on Private Garbage Collection in Scarborough Mixed Toronto, February 8 th In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,090 Toronto voters, support