M&S Requirements to Support the Quadrennial Defense Review

Transcription

1 M&S Requirements to Support the Quadrennial Defense Review Dr. Jacqueline Henningsen ssociate Director for MS& F/XOC 24 May 00

2 REPORT DOCUMENTTION PGE Form pproved OMB No Public reporting burder for this collection of information is estibated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burder to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and orts ( ), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, rlington, V Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLESE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE BOVE DDRESS. 1. REPORT DTE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE Briefing 4. TITLE ND SUBTITLE M&S Requirements to Support the Quadrennial Defense Review Unclassified 6. UTHOR(S) Henningsen, Jacqueline ; 7. PERFORMING ORGNIZTION NME ND DDRESS MS& F/XOC xxxxx, xxxxxxx 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING GENCY NME ND DDRESS United States Department of Defense Defense Modeling and Simulation Office 1901 N. Beauregard St., Suite 500 lexandria, V DTES COVERED (FROM - TO) xx-xx-2000 to xx-xx a. CONTRCT NUMBER 5b. GRNT NUMBER 5c. PROGRM ELEMENT NUMBER 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TSK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 8. PERFORMING ORGNIZTION REPORT NUMBER 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S CRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/VILBILITY STTEMENT PUBLIC RELESE, 13. SUPPLEMENTRY NOTES 14. BSTRCT Purpose and Scope: Explore Role of Joint Collaborative nalysis (JC) and Modeling and Simulation in ir Force QDR Preparations 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLSSIFICTION OF: 17. LIMITTION OF BSTRCT Public Release a. REPORT Unclassified b. BSTRCT Unclassified c. THIS PGE Unclassified 18. NUMBER OF PGES NME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Fenster, Lynn lfenster@dtic.mil 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER International rea Code rea Code Telephone Number DSN Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by NSI Std Z39.18

3 Purpose and Scope Explore Role of Joint Collaborative nalysis (JC) and Modeling and Simulation in ir Force QDR Preparations Joint Collaborative nalysis Objectives The Challenges F QDR Organization and Processes Key JC Enablers

4 Joint Collaborative nalysis (JC) Objectives: To systematically bring together Service and Joint analytic communities to elevate the quality of analysis available to decision makers To establish a process that draws the players in the market economy into the field of view

5 Purpose and Scope Explore Role of Joint Collaborative nalysis (JC) and Modeling and Simulation in ir Force QDR Preparations Joint Collaborative nalysis Objectives The Challenges F QDR Organization and Processes Key JC Enablers

6 The nalytic Nexus Vision Guidance Effects Based Operations End-State Costs Current Program Desired Effects Current Modernization MPs Different and much better? VISION RISK TECHNOLOGY More of the same, but better? Can Collaborative nalysis Help Illuminate Path head? 5 24 May 00

7 Trends for nalyses & nalysts ❶ ❶ Number of F nalysts nalysis needs growing In-house analyst numbers shrinking T & E JWC Wargaming DIS / Sim Operations o MP cquisition Number of nalyses Can Collaborative nalysis Help Relieve the Pressure? 6 24 May 00

8 Determining the Questions? QDR 97 QDR 01 Strategy Force Structure Modernization? Infrastructure Readiness Info Info Ops/Intel Human Resources What are the key issues? How do the issues interrelate? What are the questions the ir Force must answer for each issue? What are the analytical tasks to answer each question? Who is best capable of conducting each analytical task? How are these efforts integrated? Etc May 00??????

9 Challenges in Review: Working on an nswer QDR Must! I count on it daily Col Rich Hanley Interdiction To Succeed in the Quadrennial Defense Review Sixx munths ago we couldn t spell QDR -- now we re expurts thanks to this book. FS 8 24 May 00

10 QDR Organizational Structure and Processes: F/QR 26 Off (ctive) 4 Enlisted (ctive) 4 Off (RC) 1 Enlisted (RC) 35 Total Contract Support Special Issues Issues Operations CV Lt Lt Gen Gen Begert Begert QR Brig Brig Gen Gen Deptula Deptula Brig Brig Gen Gen Bath Bath Exec Exec Support Senior Senior dvisory Group Group QRY QRY ssessments ssessments Division Division Col Col Wong Wong QRO QRO Outreach Outreach Division Division Lt Lt Col Col Condray Condray QRJ QRJ Joint Joint Issues Issues Division Division Col Col Gunzinger Gunzinger QRP QRP Programming Programming and and Budget Budget Division Division TBD TBD QRR QRR Total Total Force Force Division Division Col Col Barkes Barkes 9 24 May 00

11 JS / OSD Organization & CSF-pproved ir Staff QDR Structure OVERSIGHT PNEL (DSD/VCJCS/SvcUnder (DSD/VCJCS/SvcUnder Secs/Scs Vices) Secs/Scs Vices) Modernization XOR Brig Gen Leaf Info Superiority XOI Maj Gen (s) Shaffer Force Generation, Capability & Structure XOP Maj Gen Moorhead JRB-like JRB-like Integrating Integrating Body Body ir ir Staff Staff Integrating Integrating Body Body (F/QR) (F/QR) Human Resources DPR Maj Gen (s) Regni Readiness XOO Maj Gen Kudlacz Strategy & Risk ssessment Mobility & Sustainment Infrastructure EXCOM XOR/QP XOP/XPP XOO XOC/XPX XOR/QP XOP/XPP ILX/MII XOO XOC/XPX ILX/MII Work Work Work Work Work Work Work Work Work Work XOI/QI XOI/QI DPR/XPM DPR/XPM XPX/XOP XPX/XOP QQ/XOR QQ/XOR Work Work Work Work Work Work Work Work May 00 XP X Maj Gen (s) Barry Transformation, Innovation & Joint Experimentation XOC Maj Gen Hess QQ Maj Gen Lichte SF/LLP FS SF/QX XPMP XPXS SF/ILX ILX Joint Staff Panels Ms O Neal QRS XOJ? SF/PX XOPS SF/MI SF/FMC DPFX XPPC USF Leads

12 SG T T C FS/ K Maj F Mar cotte O XPPL/Ms Friedrich R C E XOO/Lt Col Rollison IL/M aj Za hn M T W FS/Ma j Fox Forc es F/ XPPC L tc Mosteiro M I S S I L F E S D E F / E M N a S j E H a l l Cost nalyses SF/FMC LtC Lochbaum Scenarios/Threat F/XPXQ Col Gunzinger FORCE ST RUCTU RE MO DERNI ZTIO N INF O SUP ERI OR T QR Y/Col Wong FS/Col Hanle y S S C F/QR/Ma j Taylor I R M Y O B F F I S S L I T / RECPIT LIZT ION / Y M M a r j M H c N e i l RE DINE SS u n t INFRSTRUCTU RE e r Ops Conce pts F/XOP Col McRoberts N U C L E X O R N F / O L R t C C E H S u d s o n NER PEE R CC/XRY/Mr Callaway ir Force Program Projec tion SP CE SUP ERI OR ITY F S / M a j P e t r i c k F/XPPL Ms Friedric h TPFDD/Mo bility FS/S M Mr McN eil F QDR EXCOM SG MJCOMS SF/LLP FS SF/QX XPMP SF/ILX XPXS QRS CC CV QR EXCOM XOJ Shared Work Environment - News - Guidance - Events - nalyses SF/PX - Issue Forums XOPS SF/MI SF/FMC DPFX XPPC NG/ FRC ll Totally Connected Through Corporate Process and IRSS/BHIS QQ/XOR Work XOR/QP Work XOI/QI Work XPP/XOC Work DPP/MIM Work XOO Work XPX/XOP Work XOC/XPX Work ILX/MII Work Modernization Information Superiority Force Gen., Capability, & Structure Human Resources Readiness Strategy and Risk ssessment Transformation, innovation & Joint Exp Mobility & Sustainment Infrastructure May 00

13 TTCK FORCE QDR nalytical Structure SG MTW FS/Maj Fox and SG Membership MISSILE DEFENSE SSC F/QR/Maj Taylor MODERNIZTION IR MOBILITY NER PEER CC/XRY/Mr Callaway NUCLER FORCES SPCE SUPERIORITY FS/Maj Marcotte FS/Maj Hall FS/Maj Hunter FS/Mr McNeil XON/LtC Hudson FS/Maj Petrick XPPL/Ms Friedrich XOO/Lt Col Rollison IL/Maj Zahn QRY/Col Wong FS/Col Hanley FORCE STRUCTURE INFO SUPERIORTY RECPITLIZTION REDINESS INFRSTRUCTURE Cost nalyses SF/FMC LtC Lochbaum Forces F/XPPC LtC Mosteiro Scenarios/Threat F/XPXQ Col Gunzinger ir Force Program Projection F/XPPL Ops Concepts F/XOP Col McRoberts Ms Friedrich TPFDD/Mobility FS/SM Mr McNeil May 00

14 QDR Top Level Study Flow Process SG: 15 Dec TTCK FORCE MISSILE DEF INFO SUP Program Guidance Modernization Option Constraints COMPLETE Modernization Option Development SG: 24 Mar Modernization Option nalysis Financial/Recapitalization nalysis SG: 30 Jun Integrate Modernization Options 2020 Vision Force ir War Over Serbia Force Structure Baseline Modernization IR MOBILTY SG: 30 Jul EF Force Structure GE-V Excursion Drivers SG: 15 Jan NUCLER SPCE FORCES SUP MTW SSC SG: 30 ug Full Spectrum Excursions SG: 30 Sep Readiness & Infrastructure Impacts Scenario Baselines Force Structure Baseline Campaign nalysis SG: 30 Jun Campaign CONOPS/ Scenario Excursions SG: 30 Jul F/QR: 30 Oct 30 Nov 13 s of 3 May May 00 NER PEER To EF Phase III To EF Phase IV

15 Developing a Study Baseline and Fiscal Constraints BUDGET $M Current FYDP MJCOM Budget Submissions H B M L } } } } unconstrained plus up X% growth 0% per year decrement First POM affected by QDR results FISCL YER MJCOM Budget (unconstrained growth) H = High: upper realm of possibility B = Baseline: assumes X% annual real growth) M = Middle: represents 0% real growth) L = Low: minimum level for capability survival May 00

16 ir Force Models Model used in QDR in white High Resolution => ggregate THUNDER TCWR JICM SUPPRESSOR LCOM MSS JEMM CFM SIM EDSIM CPS SWEG SPT NETRULES GINT SES Campaign BRWLER GURDIN SOP ISC SHZM (2) MIL-SPEM 2 JSEM SMT TRP TEM ESMS MOSIC GTSIMS RDGUNS HUNDREDS OF ENGINEERING MODELS (NOT IN THE TOOLKIT - BY DESIGN Mission Engagement High resolution models feed aggregate models May 00

17 QDR nalysis Model Flow Task Name QDR NLYSIS Oct '99 Nov '99 Dec '99 Jan '00 Feb '00 Mar '00 pr '00 May '00 Jun '00 Jul '00 ug '00 Sep ' Baseline 1.1 ir/ir 1.2 ir/ground 1.3 Ground/ir 1.4 Ground/Ground SBSEL RDGUNS / EDSIM / SUPPRESSOR TCL / COSGE BRWLER 1.5 Theater Missile Defense 1.6 Space 1.7 Mobility nalysis 1.8 C2 EDSIM / CPPS / ISSC GINT / SMT / THUNDER THUNDER JEMM 1.9 ISR 1.10 Logistics 1.11 Data Integration 1.12 Baseline nalysis 1.13 CONOPS Excursions 2.0 Modernization Options 2.1 ttack Force 2.2 Theater Missile Defense 2.3 Information Superiority 2.4 ir Mobility 2.5 Nuclear Forces 2.6 Space Control 2.7 Integration LCOM SPT / THUNDER THUNDER THUNDER CFM ISSC SPT/GURDIN / SOP / SIM JEMM STRTCOM TRGETING FSPC Value Model THUNDER MTW and Near Peer baselines complete 3.0 Campaign Excursions May 00 THUNDER

18 Blue Horizon Information System Executive and O level information handling system for QDR related activity On both Classified (non-nto) & Unclassified networks Unclassified System rolled out to all users 1 May nticipate Classified system roll out mid-may dot mil and password protected (note: F QDR contractors granted access through individual IP addresses) May 00

19 Key JC Enablers: Understanding Limitations and Opportunities Limited time is the enemy of collaborative analysis Essential elements of collaborative analysis Senior leadership buy-in Feedback loops Open communication processes Capture mechanisms Constrained resources, unconstrained thinking Game theory applications Fair division Borrowing and leveling (see trade-space) Conditional altruism Translating Theory into Practice May 00

20 Challenges How to analyze and incorporate RM Data requirements Increasing number and complexities of analyses May 00

21 Data Issue The DPG depicts 23 Illustrative and Long Range Planning Scenarios Major theaters of war (MTW), regional conflicts (RT), and small scale contingencies (SSC) Many of these scenarios are not supported with appropriate data on Threat and llied forces Data for the bedrock scenarios, MTW East & West, took six months to deliver for MRS-05 Data for upcoming defense reviews should be more readily available May 00

22 Key Enablers of the Vision: chieving Consistency cross Multiple Methodologies Bosnia OF Kosovo Combat Operations Lessons Learned Modeling Right Decision Right Time Experimentation nalysis Tech Demos Wargames Simulation Exercises Battlelabs Relevant and ffordable May 00

23 Joint Collaborative nalytic Process greed upon scenarios and data Work together on baseline development Cooperation already in place COSGE and SBSEL data development F and rmy working together on TMD for QDR OSD, Joint Staff and Services can run their own excursions from agreed upon baselines Establish process to incorporate insights from more detailed or unique models May 00

24 The Way Forward The scope of QDR issues and number of potential scenarios has the potential to overwhelm independent analytic efforts n inclusive, integrated teaming process with early and aggressive analytical preparation provides the opportunity for enlightened decision making concerning: Simultaneously exploration of the strategy of engagement (SSCs) and major conflict (MTWs) Balanced consideration of RM and future challenges Maximized understanding of asymmetric and non-intuitive challenges