THE GRANITE STATE POLL

Transcription

1 THE GRANITE STATE POLL November 6, 2016 CLINTON LEADS TRUMP IN FINAL NH POLL, SENATE RACE TIGHT By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A UNH Survey Center center DURHAM, NH Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the race for New Hampshire s four electoral votes in the final Granite State Poll. Maggie Hassan has a small lead over incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte, although her lead is within the poll s margin of error. Colin Van Ostern leads Chris Sununu in the race for Governor although a third of the electorate has not definitely decided whom they will vote for. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/ 3.7 percent U.S. Presidential Election Nearly all New Hampshire voters have decided whom they will vote for in the presidential election on Tuesday. 8 of likely voters say they have definitely decided whom to support, are leaning towards someone, and are still trying to decide. Nearly all Democrats (9) and Republicans (8) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for while only 6 of Independents have definitely made up their mind Feb. '15 May. ' US Presidential Election Decided On Vote July Sept. Jan. Feb Apr July Aug Oct. Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 ' '16 Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3 Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6 We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

2 2016 Presidential Election Over the final weekend of the 2016 campaign, 4 of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Hillary Clinton, 3 will vote for Donald Trump, will vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, will vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, will vote for another candidate, and are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the results become 4 for Clinton, 3 for Trump, for Johnson, for Stein, for someone else, and undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 5 for Clinton, 4 for Trump, for Johnson, for Stein and for other candidates. Clinton is doing better among core Democratic voters (9 ) than Trump is doing among core Republican voters (8 ). Swing voters are evenly divided (3 for Trump, 3 for Clinton and 1 for Gary Johnson). Clinton leads by 25 points among women (5 3) while Trump only leads men 4 to 3. Trump continues to lead among those with a high school degree or less (5 3) while Clinton has a large lead among those who have completed postgraduate work (6 2). Those who have completed technical school or some college (4 3 Clinton) and college graduates (4 4 Clinton) are divided Vote For US President * Including Undecided but leaning voters Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Undecided Clinton/Trump Support Among Core/Swing Voters Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Nov 1Oct 30 Nov 2Oct 31 Nov 3 Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6 Core DEM for Clinton Core GOP for Trump Swing for Clinton Swing for Trump

3 Favorability of 2016 Presidential Candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will end the election cycle historically unpopular among New Hampshire likely voters. Two in five (4) have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 5 have an unfavorable opinion of her, and are neutral and don t know. Clinton s net favorability is 1. Clinton is very popular among Democrats (+6) but very unpopular among Independents ( 4) and Republicans ( 8) Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17 '16 Favorability Ratings Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Oct Oct Oct Favorable Oct 29 Nov 1 Oct 30 Nov 2 Unfavorable Oct 31 Nov 3 Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6 Donald Trump is even less popular three in ten (2) likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, 6 have an unfavorable opinion, and are neutral. Trump s net favorability is 3.Trump is only somewhat popular among Republicans (+3), and is very unpopular among Independents ( 5), and Democrats ( 9) Apr '16 July '16 Oct 17 '16 Favorability Ratings Donald Trump Likely Voters Oct Oct Oct Favorable Oct 29 Nov 1 Oct 30 Nov 2 Unfavorable Oct 31 Nov 3 Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6

4 Who Will Win Presidential Election? Three in five New Hampshire likely voters (6) think that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election, while just 2 think Trump will win, and 1 are unsure. While nearly all Clinton voters (9) believe that she will win, only 6 of Trump voters think he will win. This measure of electoral races has been shown to be a more accurate predictor of the winner than horse race questions, but not necessarily the margin of victory. 10 Who Will Win Presidential Election? Oct 17 '16 Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Nov 1 Oct 30 Nov 2 Oct 31 Nov 3 Clinton Trump Other Don't Know Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov US Senate Election The race for U.S. Senator from New Hampshire is likely one of the most expensive races in the country and most voters have decided whom they will vote for. Three in four likely voters (7) say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, are leaning toward a candidate, and 1 are still trying to decide May '15 July ' US Senate Election Decided On Vote Oct Feb Apr. July Aug Oct 17 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov 1 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 ' Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov 3 Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide Nov 2 Nov 3 5 6

5 2016 US Senate Election Ayotte vs. Hassan This race has been very close for more than a year and looks to remain close heading into Election Day. Currently, 4 will vote for Maggie Hassan, 4 would vote for Kelly Ayotte, would vote for someone else, and are undecided. After including undecided voters who have indicated the candidate to whom they are leaning toward, the percentages become 4 for Hassan, 4 for Ayotte, for someone else, and remain undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 5 for Hassan, 4 for Ayotte, and for other candidates. Ayotte and Hassan both have the support of 9 of their core voters while swing voters favor Ayotte 4 3. Ayotte has a double digit lead among men (5 4) but Hassan has a slightly larger lead among women (5 3) US Senate Ayotte vs. Hassan * Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters Hassan Ayotte Other Undecided Who Will Win Senate Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the U.S. Senate election, 3 of likely voters think Ayotte will be re elected, 4 think Hassan will win, and 2 are unsure. A majority of Republicans (6) think Ayotte will win, a majority of Democrats (6) think Hassan will win and a 2 of Independents are unsure. 7 of Ayotte voters think that she will win and 6 of Hassan voters believe that she will win. Who Will Win Senate Election? Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Nov Oct 30 Nov Oct 31 Nov 2 3 Hassan Ayotte Other Don't Know Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6

6 NH Gubernatorial Election With high profile presidential and Senate races, the race for New Hampshire Governor has flown under the political radar. Only 6 of New Hampshire likely voters say they have definitely decided whom they will vote for, are leaning towards someone, and 3 are still trying to decide NH Governor Election Decided On Vote Oct 17 '16 Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 NovOct 30 NovOct 31 Nov Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide If the election was held today, 4 of New Hampshire likely voters would vote for Democrat Colin Van Ostern, 3 would vote for Republican Chris Sununu, would vote for someone else, and 1 are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, the percentages become 4 for Van Ostern, 3 for Sununu, for someone else, and 1 remain undecided. Van Ostern is doing better amongst Core Democratic voters (9 ) than Sununu is among Core Republican voters (8 ) and Van Ostern has a slight edge among swing voters 3 3. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to vote for, the final prediction is 5 for Van Ostern, 4 for Sununu, and for other candidates NH Governor Van Ostern vs. Sununu * Includes Undecided But Leaning Voters Oct 17 '16* Oct 26 29* Oct 27 30* Oct 28 31* Oct 29 Nov 1* Oct 30 Nov 2* Oct 31 Nov 3* Nov 1 4* Nov 2 5* Nov 3 6* Prediction Van Ostern Sununu Other Undecided

7 Who Will Win NH Governor Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the Gubernatorial election, more than a third (3) of likely voters are unsure. 3 think Sununu will win while 2 think Van Ostern will win. Seven in ten (7) Sununu voters believe he will win compared to only 5 of Van Ostern voters predicting his victory. Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election? Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Nov 1 2 Oct 30 Nov Oct 31 Nov 3 Van Ostern Sununu Other Don't Know Nov 1 4 Nov 2 5 Nov 3 6

8 Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred and seven (707) randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 3 and November 6, If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/ 3.7 percent. These MSE s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.. The random sample used in the Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of nonsampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 10. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in crosstabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) or by at andrew.smith@unh.edu. Granite State Poll, November Likely Voter Demographics Sex N % Region N % Male North Country 55 Female Central/Lakes Connecticut Valley Age N % Mass Border to Seacoast to Manchester Area to and Over Party Registration N % Democrat Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg High School or Less Republican Some College College Graduate Party Identification N % Post Graduate Democrat Independent Republican 277 4

9 Firmness of Presidential Vote Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for President are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide Nov (707) Nov (659) Nov (600) Oct 31 Nov (522) Oct 30 Nov (473) Oct 29 Nov (478) Oct (527) Oct (477) Oct (530) Oct (764) Aug (432) July (465) Apr (549) Feb (620) Jan (885) Sept (743) July (650) May (625) Feb (768) US President Thinking about the presidential election will you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican Hillary Clinton, the Democrat Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Jill Stein of the Green Party some other candidate. or will you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES *Johnson and Stein included starting in July 2016 July 15 Sept 15 Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 July 16 Aug 16 Oct Trump Clinton Johnson 1 1 Stein Other Undecided (N=) (619) (692) (839) (578) (533) (460) (417) (755) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided (N=) (518) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (590) (646) (693)

10 US President With Leaners Would you say you are leaning towards Donald Trump, the Republican Hillary Clinton, the Democrat Gary Johnson, the Libertarian or Jill Stein of the Green Party? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Oct Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Prediction Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided (N=) (755) (516) (463) (513) (468) (466) (515) (588) (645) (692) Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings Likely Presidential Election Voters "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates who are running for President. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person or if you have never heard of him or her." "First, how about... ROTATE CANDIDATES Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton? Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net Nov (701) Nov (652) Nov (594) Oct 31 Nov (522) Oct 30 Nov (473) Oct 29 Nov (480) Oct (528) Oct (476) Oct (532) Oct (767) July (468) Apr (553) Businessman Donald Trump? Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net Nov (703) Nov (655) Nov (598) Oct 31 Nov (523) Oct 30 Nov (474) Oct 29 Nov (480) Oct (529) Oct (477) Oct (533) Oct (767) July (466) Apr (553)

11 Who Will Win Presidential Election? Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the presidential election? Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Oct Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided (N=) (762) (531) (477) (529) (480) (474) (522) (596) (655) (703) Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Senate Likely Voters Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov (693) Nov (647) Nov (590) Oct 31 Nov (520) Oct 30 Nov (470) Oct 29 Nov (479) Oct (529) Oct (478) Oct (534) Oct (748) Aug (422) July (460) Apr (538) Feb (588) Oct 15 8 (506) July (464) May 15 8 (518)

12 US Senate Ayotte vs. Hassan Likely Voters Thinking about the US Senate election, will you vote for Kelly Ayotte, the Republican Maggie Hassan, the Democrat some other candidate or will you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES May 15 July 15 Oct 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 July 16 Aug 16 Oct Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided (N=) (501) (468) (498) (597) (527) (448) (412) (725) Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided (N=) (514) (461) (510) (464) (461) (511) (581) (634) (679) US Senate Ayotte vs. Hassan Likely Voters With Leaners Would you say you are leaning towards Kelly Ayotte, the Republican or Maggie Hassan, the Democrat? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Oct Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Prediction Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided (N=) (724) (514) (461) (509) (462) (460) (509) (581) (634) (679) Who Will Win Senate Election? Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the US Senate election? Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Ayotte Hassan Other Undecided (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (473) (520) (593) (647) (696)

13 Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Governor Likely Voters Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Gubernatorial election are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Def. Decided Leaning Trying to Decide (N=) Nov (695) Nov (646) Nov (587) Oct 31 Nov (515) Oct 30 Nov (465) Oct 29 Nov (477) Oct (526) Oct (476) Oct (532) Oct (748) Aug (422) July (460) Apr (538) Feb (588) Oct 15 8 (506) July (464) May 15 8 (518) NH Gubernatorial Election Thinking about the Gubernatorial election, will you vote for Chris Sununu, the Republican Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat some other candidate. or will you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Oct Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Sununu Van Ostern Other Undecided (N=) (676) (505) (454) (503) (461) (457) (507) (574) (631) (672) NH Gubernatorial Election With Leaners Would you say you are leaning towards Chris Sununu, the Republican or Colin Van Ostern, the Democrat? ROTATE CANDIDATES Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Oct Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Prediction Sununu Van Ostern Other Undecided (N=) (673) (503) (452) (501) (460) (455) (505) (572) (628) (671)

14 Who Will Win Gubernatorial Election? Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Gubernatorial election? Oct Oct Oct Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov Nov Nov Nov 1 Nov 2 Nov Sununu Van Ostern Other Undecided (N=) (530) (477) (528) (479) (471) (517) (590) (646) (696)

15 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardSomeone StilTryingToDecide NHLikelyVoters 8 DecidedonVoteForUSPresident

16 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters 4 3 VoteforUSPresident

17 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters 4 3 VoteforUSPresidentWithLeaners

18 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Trump Clinton Johnson Other DontKnow NHLikelyVoters USPresident-WhoWilWin?

19 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters 6 2 Favorability-DonaldTrump

20 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don'tKnow NHLikelyVoters 5 4 Favorability-HilaryClinton

21 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardSomeone StilTryingToDecide NHLikelyVoters 1 7 DecidedonVoteforUSSenate

22 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Ayote Hassan Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters 4 4 VoteforUSSenate-Ayotevs.Hassan

23 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Ayote Hassan Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters 4 4 VoteforUSSenate-Ayotevs.HassanWithLeaners

24 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP AyoteVoter HassanVoter Other/Undecided WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Ayote Hassan Other DontKnow NHLikelyVoters USSenate-WhoWilWin?

25 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardSomeone StilTryingToDecide NHLikelyVoters 3 6 DecidedonVoteforGovernor

26 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Sununu VanOstern Other Undecided NHLikelyVoters VoteforGovernor-Sununuvs.VanOstern

27 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP DefinitelyDecided LeaningTowardsSomeone StilTryingToDecide WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested TrumpVoter ClintonVoter JohnsonVoter SteinVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Sununu VanOstern Other DontKnow NHLikelyVoters VoteforGovernor-Sununuvs.VanOsternWithLeaners

28 RegisteredDemocrat RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg. RegisteredRepublican Democrat Independent Republican CoreDEM SwingVoter CoreGOP WilDefinitelyVote WilVoteUnlessEmergency ExtremelyInterestedinElection VeryInterested Somewhat/NotVeryInterested SununuVoter VanOsternVoter Other/Undecided 18to34 35to49 50to64 65andolder Male Female Male,Maried Female,Maried Male,Unmaried Female,Unmaried WorkingClassMen WorkingClassWomen ColegeEducMen ColegeEducWomen Highschoolorless Technicalschool/Somecolege Colegegraduate Postgraduatework Central/Lakes ConnecticutValey ManchesterArea MassBorder NorthCountry Seacoast FirstCong.District SecondCong.District Sununu VanOstern Other DontKnow NHLikelyVoters NHGovernor-WhoWilWin?