Kansas Newspaper Poll Crosstabulation Supplemental Report

Transcription

1 Kansas Newspaper Poll Crosstabulation Supplemental Report Prepared For Wichita Eagle, Topeka Capital-Journal, Salina Journal, Hutchinson News, Lawrence Journal- World, Hays Daily News, Garden City Telegram, Great Bend Tribune, and Ottawa Herald By The Docking Institute of Public Affairs Fort Hays State University Copyright July 2016 All Rights Reserved

2 Fort Hays State University 600 Park Street Hays, Kansas Telephone: (785) FAX: (785) Gary Brinker, PhD Director Jian Sun, PhD Research Scientist Michael S. Walker, MS Assistant Director Lynette Ottley Administrative Associate Bradley Pendergast, MPA Survey Center Manager Mission: To Facilitate Effective Public Policy Decision-Making. The staff of the Docking Institute of Public Affairs and its University Center for Survey Research are dedicated to serving the people of Kansas and surrounding states.

3 Kansas Newspaper Poll Crosstabulation Supplemental Report Prepared By: Bradley Pendergast, MPA Survey Center Manager Gary Brinker, Ph.D. Director Chapman Rackaway, Ph.D. Senior Policy Fellow Jian Sun, Ph.D. Research Scientist Michael Smith, Ph.D Policy Fellow Ryan L. Swayne Student Research Supervisor Docking Institute of Public Affairs Prepared For: Wichita Eagle, Topeka Capital-Journal, Salina Journal, Hutchinson News, Lawrence Journal- World, Hays Daily News, Garden City Telegram, Great Bend Tribune and Ottawa Herald In pursuit of Fort Hays State University s Public Affairs Mission Copyright July 2016 All Rights Reserved

4 Introduction and Methods The Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University surveyed a random sample of adult residents of Kansas age 18 to measure their intentions to participate in the upcoming presidential primary election, candidates they intended to support, choice for the general election given a hypothetical pair of candidates, job satisfaction ratings for Kansas elected officials and policy preferences for some controversial issues in Kansas. The survey sample consisted of random Kansas landline telephone numbers and cellphone numbers. From July 11 th to the 21 st, a total of 1,975 Kansas residents were contacted through either landline telephone or cellphone, and 765 of them completed the survey. This results in a 3 cooperation rate. In order to obtain accurate estimates of the District 1 Congressional Race, that geographical area was over-sampled. The data were then weighted to accommodate equal representation in the statewide statistics. At a 9 confidence level, the margin of error for the weighted sample of 487 is 4.. A margin of error of 4. means that there is a 9 probability that findings among the sample vary no more than +/- 4. from the value that would be found if the entire population of interest (adult Kansas residents) were surveyed, assuming no response bias. The percentage of males and females in the sample were similar to the Kansas population. For questions about the 1 st Congressional Districts Primary, the sample size was 210, which results in a margin of error of 6.7. A margin of error of 6.7 means that there is a 9 probability that findings among the sample vary no more than +/- 6.7 from the value that would be found if the entire population of interest (adult Kansas 1 st Congressional District registered s) were surveyed, assuming no response bias. The percentage of males and females in the sample were similar to the Kansas 1 st Congressional District population.

5 Table of Contents Section 1: Significant Crosstabulations by Political Party...1 Section 2: Significant Crosstabulations by Level of Education Appendix A: Survey Instrument...15

6 Section 1: Significant Crosstabulations by Political Party If the Presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for? by Political Party Strong 8 1% 41% 70% Independent Strong 2% 2% 2 82% Hillary Clinton Some Other Candidate Don't Know Gary Johnson Donald Trump Not surprisingly, respondents self-identifying as Strong s, s, and Independents Leaning were most likely to indicate they would vote for Hillary Clinton if the Presidential Election were held today. Respondents who identified as Strong s, s, and Independents Leaning, were most likely to vote for Donald Trump. Respondents who identified as Independents were most divided, with slightly more favoring Trump (2) over Clinton (), and 2 who said they didn t know. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 1

7 Rating of Kansas Economy by Political Party Strong 1% % 3 22% 2 Independent 31% 40% 32% 3 Strong 2 42% 22% 3 Excellent Very good Good Fair Poor Very poor Overall, 3 of respondents rated the Kansas Economy as Poor or Very Poor. Respondents identifying as s and Independents were more likely to rate the Kansas Economy as Good. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 2

8 Satisfaction with Governor Brownback by Political Party Strong 8 7 2% 8 Independent 2% 6 22% 51% 2 5 Strong % 1 60% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied While the majority of respondents indicated that they were at least Somewhat Dissatisfied with Governor Brownback s performance, all s (100%) and nearly all s (9) and Independents Leaning (9) indicated some level of dissatisfaction. Strong s (3) were the most likely to indicate satisfaction with Governor Brownback s performance. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 3

9 Satisfaction with Kansas Legislature's Handling of the School Funding Issue by Political Party Strong 61% 3 52% 2% 6 Independent 2% 2 51% 2% 12% 1 30% 3 Strong 1% % 1% 1 4 Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied While the majority of all respondents expressed some level of dissatisfaction with the Kansas Legislature s handling of the School Funding Issue, respondents identifying as s tended to express higher levels of dissatisfaction with the Kansas Legislature s handling of the school funding issue than s. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 4

10 Satisfaction with Kansas Supreme Court's Handling of the School Funding Issue by Political Party Strong 3 12% Independent Strong 31% 22% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied With regard to satisfaction with the Kansas Supreme Court s handling of the school funding issue, respondents identifying as s were more likely to be satisfied with the handling than s, with Independents Leaning being the most satisfied, and Independents Leaning being the least satisfied. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 5

11 Opinion of Transgender Student Use of Public School Bathrooms by Political Party Strong 2 51% 32% 3 32% 3 4 Independent % 60% Strong Require Use of Bathroom Matching Biological Sex No Opinion Allow Students to Use Bathroom Opposite of Biological Sex Respondents identifying as s were much more likely to favor requiring students to use the bathroom matching their biological sex than s. Independents were nearly evenly divided on the issue, with slightly more favoring requiring students to use the bathroom matching their biological sex. Recently the federal government issued a mandate that all states allow individuals to use the bathroom of the gender they self-identify with instead of their biological sex. Which of the following best describes your opinion? by Political Party Strong % 3 Independent Strong 2% 90% 1 6 Federal Government Correct to Impose Mandate No Opinion Federal Government Overstepped Authority/States Should Decide With regard to the Federal Government s mandate that, in order to obtain federal benefits, all states allow individuals to use the bathroom of the gender they self-identify with instead of their biological sex, respondents identifying as s and Independents were significantly more likely to believe that the Federal Government overstepped their authority and that the states should decide. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 6

12 Would you vote for Senator Jerry Moran if he were hypothetically running for re-election? by Political Party Strong 62% 32% 5 4 Independent % 22% 3 Strong Yes Don't Know No When asked if they would vote to re-elect Senator Jerry Moran in a hypothetical election, the majority of respondents identifying as s indicated they would, while the majority of those identifying as s, indicated they would not. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 7

13 Would you vote for President Barack Obama if he were hypothetically running for re-election? by Political Party Strong % 2% 22% Independent 6 2% 8 92% Strong 1% 9 31% 6 Yes Don't Know No When asked if they would vote to re-elect President Barack Obama in a hypothetical election, the vast majority of respondents identifying as s and Independents indicated they would not, while the majority of those identifying as s, with the exception of s, who were nearly evenly divided on the issue, indicated they would. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 8

14 Would you vote for Governor Sam Brownback if he were hypothetically running for re-election? by Political Party Strong 9 91% 2% 9 Independent Strong Yes Don't Know No When asked if they would vote to re-elect Kansas Governor Sam Brownback in a hypothetical election, the majority of respondents in all categories, even those identifying as Strong s, indicated they would not. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 9

15 Section 2: Significant Crosstabulations by Level of Education If the Presidential election were held today, who would you most likely vote for? by Education Doctoral Degree 50% 3 Masters or Law Degree % Bachelors Degree 32% 4 Associates or Technical Degree 4 Some College 4 High School Diploma 1 4 Less than High School Hillary Clinton Some Other Candidate Don't Know Gary Johnson Donald Trump Respondents who reported the highest level of education, Doctoral Degree(50%), and those who reported the lowest level, Less than High School (6), were the most likely to indicate they would vote for Hillary Clinton if the Presidential Election were held today. With the exception of Doctoral, Masters or Law Degree, and Less than High School, all respondents were most likely to indicate that they would vote for Trump. Satisfaction with Governor Sam Brownback by Education Doctoral Degree 3 6 Masters or Law Degree 1% 7 Bachelors Degree 12% 61% Associates or Technical Degree 6 Some College 51% High School Diploma 51% Less than High School 40% 40% 60% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied In general, there was a tendency for respondents with higher levels of education to indicate higher levels of dissatisfaction with the job Governor Sam Brownback is doing. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 10

16 Satisfaction with President Barack Obama by Education Doctoral Degree 3 4 Masters or Law Degree 3 Bachelors Degree 4 Associates or Technical Degree 1 5 Some College 12% 12% 52% High School Diploma 51% Less than High School Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied Respondents who have a high level of education and respondents who have less than high school were the most likely to be satisfied with President Obama. Doctoral Degree Satisfaction with Kansas Legislature's Handling of the School Funding Issue by Education 3 4 Masters or Law Degree 5 Bachelors Degree 1% 4 Associates or Technical Degree 2% 31% 40% Some College 2% 31% 41% High School Diploma 2 3 Less than High School 3 50% 1% 4 Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied Respondents with a doctoral degree were the most likely to be satisfied with the Kansas Legislature s handling of the school finance Issue. Respondents with a masters or law degree were most likely to be dissatisfied. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 11

17 Satisfaction with Kansas Supreme Court's Handling of the School Funding Issue by Education Doctoral Degree 3 Masters or Law Degree 1 Bachelors Degree 1 Associates or Technical Degree 1 2 Some College 3 High School Diploma 2 2 Less than High School 50% 3 22% Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Neutral Somewhat Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied In general, as respondent s education levels increase, so does satisfaction with the Kansas Supreme Court s handling of the school funding issue. Doctoral Degree Level of Support or Oppostion of Banning the Sale of Military Assault Rifles to Citizens by Education 50% 30% Masters or Law Degree 51% Bachelors Degree 40% 12% 2 Associates or Technical Degree 32% 4 Some College 32% 3 High School Diploma 3 42% Less than High School 50% % 3 Strongly Support Somewhat Support Neutral Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Respondents with a doctoral, master s degree and less than high school were most likely so support banning the sale of military style assault rifles to citizens. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 12

18 Level of Support or Opposition of Banning the Sale of High-Capacity Firearm Magazines to Citizens by Education Doctoral Degree 50% 30% Masters or Law Degree 4 2 Bachelors Degree 3 12% 2 Associates or Technical Degree 4 Some College 31% 3 High School Diploma 2 3 Less than High School Strongly Support Somewhat Support Neutral Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose In general, as respondent s education level increased the likelihood to support banning the sale of high capacity (more than 10 rounds) firearm magazines to citizens increased. Opinion of Transgender Student Use of Public School Bathrooms by Education Doctoral Degree 30% 60% Masters or Law Degree 3 41% Bachelors Degree 5 2 Associates or Technical Degree 4 31% Some College 52% 22% High School Diploma 5 3 Less than High School Require Use of Bathroom Matching Biological Sex No Opinion Allow Students to Use Bathroom Opposite of Biological Sex In general, as respondent s educational levels increase, the likelihood to support allowing transgender students to use the bathroom opposite of their biological sex increases. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 13

19 Recently the federal government issued a mandate that all states allow individuals to use the bathroom of the gender they self-identify with instead of their biological sex. Which of the following best describes your opinion? by Education Doctoral Degree 4 5 Masters or Law Degree 30% 5 Bachelors Degree 22% 70% Associates or Technical Degree 12% 71% Some College 70% High School Diploma 2 6 Less than High School Federal Government Correct to Impose Mandate No Opinion Federal Government Overstepped Authority/States Should Decide In general, as respondent s educational levels increase, the likelihood for support of the federal government s transgender bathroom mandate increases. Would you vote for President Barack Obama if he were hypothetically running for re-election? by Education Doctoral Degree 50% 50% Masters or Law Degree 41% 5 Bachelors Degree 32% 1% 6 Associates or Technical Degree 2 7 Some College 2 70% High School Diploma 7 Less than High School % 6 Yes Don't Know No In general, as respondent s educational levels increase, the likelihood of voting for President Obama in a hypothetical reelection increases. The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 14

20 Appendix A: Survey Instrument Qual Are you currently residing in the state of Kansas? 1 Yes 2 No NotQual Thank you but the survey is intended for Kansas residents. Have a great. 1 Select to End Survey Q1 In general, how would you rate the Kansas economy? Would you say it is: 1 Excellent 2 Very good 3 Good 4 Fair 5 Poor or 6 Very poor? 8 DON T KNOW/REFUSE Q2a Please indicate if you are "Very satisfied", "Somewhat satisfied", "Neutral", "Somewhat dissatisfied" or "Very dissatisfied" with the following elected officials. 1 The Kansas Legislature in general? 2 U.S. Senator Jerry Moran? 3 Governor Sam Brownback? 4 President Barack Obama? 1 Very satisfied 2 Somewhat satisfied 3 Neutral 4 Somewhat dissatisfied 5 Very dissatisfied 8 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE Q2bPlease tell me if you would vote for any of the following politicians if there was a hypothetical election held today. 1 Senator Jerry Moran? 2 Governor Sam Brownback? 3 President Barack Obama? 1 Yes 2 No 8 DON T KNOW 9 REFUSE The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 15

21 Q3 If the Presidential election were held today, who would you be most likely to vote for? 1 Donald Trump 2 Hillary Clinton 3 Gary Johnson 4 Some Other Candidate ->T Q4a What is your opinion about how public schools in Kansas should treat transgender students in regards to which bathrooms they should use? 1 Students should be required to use the bathroom that matches their biological sex 2 Students who identify with an alternative gender should be permitted to use the bathroom opposite of their biological sex 3 No Opinion/Don t Know Q4b Recently the federal government issued a mandate that all states allow individuals to use the bathroom of the gender with which they identify instead of their legallyidentified gender. Which of the following best describes your opinion of the situation? 1 The federal government was correct to impose the mandate 2 The federal government overstepped its authority and should allow the states to determine they own policies for bathroom choice 3 Other ->TM 4 No Opinion 9 REFUSE Q5 School Funding question: will be crafted after June 30th. Q6 Do you Stongly Support, Somehwat Support, Neutral, Somehwat Oppose or Strongly Oppose the following 1 Banning the sale of military assault rifles to citizens? 2 Banning the sale of high capacity (more than 10 rounds) magazines to citizens? 3 Banning the sale of firearms to all persons on the no-fly list? 1 Strongly Support 2 Somewhat Support 3 Neutral 4 Somewhat Oppose 5 Strongly Oppose Q7 Are you currently registered to vote in the state of Kansas? 1 Yes 2 No 8 DON T KNOW 9 REFUSE The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 16

22 Q8 Did you vote in the last Presidential election held in 2012? 1 Yes 2 No Q9 Do you consider yourself a: 1 Strong 2 3 Independent... Leaning 4 Independent 5 Independent... Leaning 6 7 Strong 8 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE Q10 What is the highest level of education you have received? 1 Less than high school 2 High school diploma or equivalency 3 Some college 4 Associates or Technical degree 5 Bachelors degree 6 Masters or law degree 7 Doctoral degree 9 Refuse Q11 And finally, was your total household income for last year above or below $50,000 a year? 1 Less than 10,000 2 At least 10,000 but under 25,000 3 At least 25,000 but under 35,000 4 At least 35,000 but under 50,000 5 At least 50,000 but under 75,000 6 At least 75,000 but under 100,000 7 At least 100,000 but under 150, ,000 or more 88 DON'T KNOW/REFUSE Q12 What year were you born? Q13 That s our last question. Thank you for participating in this important research. The results will be released to the media in later this month. Was the respondent a... 1 Male 2 Female 8 Unsure The Docking Institute of Public Affairs: Kansas Newspaper Poll July 2016 Page 17