3Q13 Quarterly Report

Transcription

1 Lewisville Independent School District 3Q13 Quarterly Report Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller s Office) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 82 consecutive months. ( ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (October 2013) - U.S. 7.0% - Texas 6.0% - DFW MSA 5.9% - Denton County 5.3% - Lewisville 6.2% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2

3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3

4 National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2013 Source: Metrostudy 4

5 DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings Annual Starts & Closings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 21,013 18,855-3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 5

6 DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 6

7 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 3Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 3,008 2,534 4,072 9,073 2 Northwest ISD 1,260 1,101 1,750 22,174 3 Denton ISD 1,234 1,101 2,330 14,585 4 Keller ISD ,269 3,218 5 Lewisville ISD ,598 2,549 6 Dallas ISD ,138 7,329 7 Prosper ISD ,494 15,320 8 McKinney ISD ,247 7,225 9 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD ,603 20, Little Elm ISD , Mansfield ISD , Allen ISD , Rockwall ISD ,630 8, Crowley ISD ,897 8, Plano ISD , Forney ISD ,401 11, Wylie ISD , Fort Worth ISD ,069 4, Burleson ISD , Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD Anna ISD , Midlothian ISD ,012 14, Garland ISD , Waxahachie ISD , HEB ISD , Birdville ISD Weatherford ISD Aledo ISD , Royse City ISD , Melissa ISD ,420 7

8 Annual Closing Distribution 3Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Starts Annual Closings 1 Castle Hills (Lewisville) Chase Oaks Addition Quail Creek North Kings Grant Addition Villas of Indian Creek TH'S Flower Mound Austin Waters Townhomes Flower Mound Oaks Carrington Village Austin Waters TOTALS

9 Vacant Developed Lots 3Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Castle Hills (Lewisville) Lakeside DFW (Flower Mound) Normandy Estates Shops at Prestonwood, The Lakeridge Townhomes Mustang Park (Carrollton) Hills of Kingswood, The Continental Square Settler's Village Townhomes District of Highland Village 61 0 TOTALS

10 Future Lots 3Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Hills of Kingswood, The Mustang Park (Carrollton) Wyndale Meadows Mustang Park Townhomes Manors at Vista Ridge, The Creekside at Heritage Park Terracina Orchard Flower Twin Creeks Addition (Frisco) Legends (Flower Mound) 0 91 TOTALS 209 1,831 10

11 Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Elementary Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Occupied Models Finished Vacant Under Const. Inventory Vacant Dev. Lots Future Total BLUEBONNET BRIDLEWOOD CAMEY CASTLE HILLS CENTRAL COLLEGE STREET COYOTE RIDGE CREEKSIDE DEGAN DONALD ETHRIDGE FLOWER MOUND FOREST VISTA GARDEN RIDGE HEBRON VALLEY HEDRICK HERITAGE HICKS HIGHLAND VILLAGE HOMESTEAD INDEPENDENCE INDIAN CREEK LAKELAND LEWISVILLE LIBERTY MCAULIFFE MORNINGSIDE OLD SETTLERS PARKWAY PETERS COLONY POLSER PRAIRIE TRAIL ROCKBROOK SOUTHRIDGE STEWARTS CREEK TIMBER CREEK VALLEY RIDGE VICKERY WELLINGTON Grand Total , ,598 2,549 38,311 11

12 Active Elementary Zones Map The Bridges Phase 1 (2015) 194 Futures 806 Platinum Open 312 Building 300 Proposed SF* VDL 0 Futures 325 Multi-family The Islands Phase 1 (2015) 393 Futures 4,107 Single Family Austin Waters VDL 4 Futures 50 Castle Hills VDL 165 Futures 78 Somerset Waters Futures 580 Proposed SF* VDL 0 Futures

13 Multi-Family Map Existing Apartment Complexes Total Complexes 103 Total Units 29,450 Elem Students 4,240 MS Students 1,531 HS Students 1,843 Total Students 7,522 Average Student Yield

14 Enrollment History Year (OCT) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Totals Total Growth Total % 2009/10 1,253 3,745 3,961 3,945 3,971 4,112 4,010 3,918 3,829 3,756 4,328 3,928 3,252 3,292 51, /11 1,248 3,697 3,825 3,894 3,932 3,977 4,084 3,949 3,960 3,854 4,274 3,960 3,331 3,454 51, % 2011/12 1,415 3,570 3,855 3,817 3,896 3,959 4,020 4,136 4,040 3,979 4,078 3,919 3,702 3,485 51, % 2012/13 1,689 3,613 3,701 3,840 3,815 3,940 3,996 4,065 4,170 4,136 4,144 3,991 3,736 3,651 52, % 2013/14 1,718 3,493 3,759 3,782 3,915 3,900 4,004 4,017 4,106 4,177 4,278 4,033 3,873 3,696 52, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Cohort Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 3 Year Avg / / / / The size of Entering and Exiting classes impact enrollment change as much and sometimes more than actual growth. 14

15 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Totals Growth Total % 2009/10 1,253 3,745 3,961 3,945 3,971 4,112 4,010 3,918 3,829 3,756 4,328 3,928 3,252 3,292 51, /11 1,248 3,697 3,825 3,894 3,932 3,977 4,084 3,949 3,960 3,854 4,274 3,960 3,331 3,454 51, % 2011/12 1,415 3,570 3,855 3,817 3,896 3,959 4,020 4,136 4,040 3,979 4,078 3,919 3,702 3,485 51, % 2012/13 1,689 3,613 3,701 3,840 3,815 3,940 3,996 4,065 4,170 4,136 4,144 3,991 3,736 3,651 52, % 2013/14 1,718 3,493 3,759 3,782 3,915 3,900 4,004 4,017 4,106 4,177 4,276 4,033 3,873 3,696 52, % 2014/15 1,718 3,600 3,652 3,776 3,865 3,994 3,946 4,015 4,090 4,169 4,327 4,162 3,911 3,846 53, % 2015/16 1,718 3,680 3,736 3,667 3,835 3,936 4,026 3,947 4,107 4,158 4,336 4,217 4,065 3,866 53, % 2016/17 1,718 3,732 3,814 3,767 3,735 3,906 3,972 4,092 4,003 4,148 4,288 4,216 4,101 4,045 53, % 2017/18 1,718 3,807 3,896 3,837 3,823 3,804 3,940 3,942 4,133 4,079 4,290 4,177 4,095 4,068 53, % 2018/19 1,718 3,887 3,975 3,939 3,924 3,894 3,845 3,923 4,012 4,216 4,224 4,175 4,074 4,060 53, % 2019/20 1,718 3,863 4,036 3,998 4,017 3,978 3,930 3,846 3,994 4,058 4,360 4,108 4,064 4,033 54, % 2020/21 1,718 3,936 4,016 4,077 4,076 4,080 4,014 3,913 3,909 4,046 4,203 4,243 4,007 4,028 54, % 2021/22 1,718 3,962 4,088 4,059 4,154 4,139 4,124 3,996 3,972 3,974 4,194 4,089 4,137 3,971 54, % 2022/23 1,718 3,984 4,118 4,125 4,136 4,215 4,180 4,120 4,065 4,025 4,118 4,078 3,984 4,094 54, % 2023/24 1,718 4,024 4,140 4,156 4,204 4,195 4,258 4,182 4,187 4,125 4,171 4,006 3,975 3,945 55, % Enrollment growth in the next few years through increased housing, changing multi-family yields and increased single family yields. Current 9 th -12 th enrollment is 1,300 students larger than KG-3 rd Enrollment begins to balance through the term of this forecast. 15

16 Five Year Forecast By Campus Optimal Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (Oct.) CAMPUS Capacity 2013/ / / / / /19 BLUEBONNET ELEMENTARY BRIDLEWOOD ELEMENTARY CAMEY ELEMENTARY CASTLE HILLS ELEMENTARY CENTRAL ELEMENTARY 1, ,009 1,013 1,022 COLLEGE ST. ELEMENTARY COYOTE RIDGE ELEMENTARY CREEKSIDE ELEMENTARY DEGAN ELEMENTARY DONALD ELEMENTARY ETHRIDGE ELEMENTARY FLOWER MOUND ELEMENTARY FOREST VISTA ELEMENTARY GARDEN RIDGE ELEMENTARY HEBRON VALLEY ELEMENTARY HEDRICK ELEMENTARY HERITAGE ELEMENTARY HICKS ELEMENTARY HIGHLAND VILLAGE ELEMENTARY HOMESTEAD ELEMENTARY INDEPENDENCE ELEMENTARY INDIAN CREEK ELEMENTARY

17 Five Year Forecast By Campus Optimal Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (Oct.) CAMPUS Capacity 2013/ / / / / /19 JACKSON EARLY ED. CENTER LAKELAND ELEMENTARY LEWISVILLE ELEMENTARY LIBERTY ELEMENTARY MCAULIFFE ELEMENTARY MORNINGSIDE ELEMENTARY OLD SETTLERS ELEMENTARY OWEN ELEMENTARY PARKWAY ELEMENTARY PETERS COLONY ELEMENTARY POLSER ELEMENTARY PRAIRIE TRAIL ELEMENTARY ROCKBROOK ELEMENTARY SOUTHRIDGE ELEMENTARY STEWARTS CREEK ELEMENTARY TIMBER CREEK ELEMENTARY VALLEY RIDGE ELEMENTARY VICKERY ELEMENTARY WELLINGTON ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTALS 27,267 24,566 24,546 24,593 24,639 24,820 25,177 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change -0.09% -0.08% 0.19% 0.19% 0.73% 1.44% 17

18 Five Year Forecast By Campus MIDDLE SCHOOL CAMPUS Capacity 2013/ / / / / /19 ARBOR CREEK MIDDLE SCHOOL BRIARHILL MIDDLE SCHOOL CREEK VALLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL DELAY MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,018 1,010 1,082 DOWNING MIDDLE SCHOOL DURHAM MIDDLE SCHOOL FORESTWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, GRIFFIN MIDDLE SCHOOL HEDRICK MIDDLE SCHOOL HUFFINES MIDDLE SCHOOL KILLIAN MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,042 LAKEVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL LAMAR MIDDLE SCHOOL MCKAMY MIDDLE SCHOOL 910 1,129 1,088 1,070 1, SHADOW RIDGE MIDDLE SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 13,683 12,266 12,240 12,178 12,209 12,120 12,117 Middle School Absolute Change Middle School Percent Change 66.67% 66.08% 65.35% 67.01% 65.92% 63.50% 18

19 Five Year Forecast By Campus HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS Capacity 2013/ / / / / /19 FLOWER MOUND 9th GRADE CAMPUS HEBRON 9th GRADE CAMPUS MARCUS 9th GRADE CAMPUS FLOWER MOUND HIGH SCHOOL ,303 2,503 2,510 2,579 2,553 2,476 HEBRON HIGH SCHOOL ,337 2,394 2,473 2,523 2,619 2,676 LEWISVILLE HIGH SCHOOL ,817 1,947 2,046 2,085 2,100 2,087 LEWISVILLE BEN HARMON HS ,156 1,195 1,169 1,180 1,220 1,239 LEWISVILLE KILLOUGH , MARCUS HIGH SCHOOL ,223 2,398 2,412 2,394 2,323 2,252 THE COLONY HIGH SCHOOL ,964 1,973 2,034 2,060 2,088 2,159 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 16,361 15,666 16,034 16,271 16,438 16,418 16,321 High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change 2.13% 2.35% 1.48% 1.03% -0.12% -0.59% ALTERNATIVE CAMPUSES Capacity 2013/ / / / / /19 LEARNING CENTER OTHER ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE CAMPUS TOTALS DISTRICT TOTALS 57,925 52,751 53,069 53,293 53,536 53,609 53,865 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 0.50% 0.60% 0.42% 0.46% 0.14% 0.48% 19

20 Summary District has areas that are experiencing enrollment decline as well as enrollment growth. New home construction has outpaced last year s totals in just the first 9 months of Apartment development also strong with several thousand units in development. Templeton Demographics uses a quarterly approach to assist the district with housing reports and updates to the projections as needed. District will likely continue to see steady growth as new developments are delivered. Enrollment in 2014/15 is expected to be slightly over 53,000 students. LISD is projected to grow 1,114 students in the next 5 years and 2,534 students by 2023/24 where enrollment in the district should be over 55,000 students. 20