41 st Statistical Report Canadian Association of Graduate Studies 2015 E. Dianne Looker

Transcription

1 41 st Statistical Report Canadian Association of Graduate Studies 2015 E. Dianne Looker

2 Canadian Association for Graduate Studies 41 st Statistical Report, 2015 Prepared by E. Dianne Looker D. Looker Social Survey Research and Analysis

3 Table of Contents 1 Graduate enrolments Introduction Executive summary Information presented in the report Methodological notes Portrait of graduate enrolments in Canada, Full-time and part-time enrolments at the Master s and doctoral levels Full-time enrolments by Province Full-time enrolments by Gender Full-time enrolments by Gender and Province Full-time enrolments by Main field of study Full-time enrolments by Detailed field of study Full-time graduate enrolments by International student status Full-time enrolments by International student status, Gender, Province and Main field of study Full-time enrolments by Age grouping Age projections and full-time enrolments relative to population Full-time enrolments by Age and Gender World region of full-time international student enrolments i

4 1.18 Province of Permanent Residence for full-time enrolments of Canadian citizens and permanent residents Degrees awarded Portrait of graduate degrees awarded in Canada, Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, Graduate degrees awarded by Province Graduate degrees awarded by Gender Graduate degrees awarded by International student status Graduate degrees awarded by Main field of study Graduate degrees awarded by age groups Graduate degrees awarded by international student status ii

5 List of Tables Canadian Association for Graduate Studies / Association canadienne pour les études supérieures Table 1.1 Profile of full- time and part- time Master s and doctoral enrolments in Canada, Table 1.2 Master s and Doctoral full- time and part- time enrolments in Canada, Table 1.3 Change in full- time Master s enrolments, by province, 1992-, -, ; ranked by rate of growth Table Change in full- time doctoral enrolments, by province, 1992-, -, ; ranked by rate of growth Table 1.5 Full- time Master s and doctoral enrolments by percent female, Canada, Table 1.6 Full- time Master s enrolments by gender and province, 1992,, Table 1.7 Percent female, full- time Master s and doctoral enrolments by province, 1992,, Table 1.8 Full- time doctoral enrolments by gender and province, 1992,, Table 1.9 Change in full- time Master s enrolments in main fields of study, and -, numbers and percent change, ranked by percent change: a , b Table Change in full- time doctoral enrolments in main fields of study, and -, numbers and percent change, ranked by percent change: a , b Table 1.11 Full- time Master s enrolments, 1992,, by detailed field of study, Canada, ranked by percent change Table Full- time doctoral enrolments, 1992,, by detailed field of study, Canada, ranked by percent change Table 1.13 Number and percent of Master s and doctoral full- time enrolments which are international students, Canada, Table Full- time Master s and doctoral enrolments by number and percent of international enrolments, by gender, 1992,, Table 1.15 Full- time Master s enrolments by number and percent of international enrolments, by province, 1992,,, ranked by percent international, Table Full- time doctoral enrolments by number and percent of international enrolments, by province, 1992,,,ranked by percent international, iii

6 Table 1.17 Full- time Master s enrolments by number and percent of international enrolments, by main field of study, 1992,,, ranked by percentage international in Table 1.18 Full- time doctoral enrolments by number and percent of international enrolments, by main field of study, 1992,,, ranked by percentage international in Table 1.19 Full time Master s enrolments by age groups, Table 1.20 Full time doctoral enrolments by age groups, Table 1.21 Assumptions for growth projections, Canada Table 1.22 Percent female, full time Master s and doctoral enrolments, by age groups, Table Number of full- time international Master s enrolments, by age groups, Table Number of full- time international doctoral enrolments, by age groups, Table 1.25 World region of full- time international Master s enrolments, percent distribution, Table World region of full- time international doctoral enrolments, percent distribution, Table 1.27 Full- time enrolments, Canadian citizens and permanent residents, by province of study, ranked by percent from the same province, Table 2.1 Profile of Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, Canada, Table 2.2 Profile of Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, Canada,, continued Main field of study Table 2.3 Number of Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, change and percent change per year, Canada, Table Master s and doctoral degrees awarded percent female, Canada, Table Number of Master s and doctoral degrees awarded by gender and age groups, Table 2.6 Percent female, Master s and Doctoral degrees awarded, by age groups, Table 2.7 Number of Master s and doctoral degrees awarded to International students, by age groups, Table 2.8 Percent international students, Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, by age groups, Table 2.9 World region of degrees awarded to international students, percent distribution, iv

7 List of Figures Figure Full- time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, Figure Percent change in full- time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada Figure Part- time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, Figure Percent change in part- time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, Figure 1.5 Master s enrolments, full- time, part- time and total, Figure 1.6 Doctoral enrolments, full- time, part- time and total, Figure Full- time Master s enrolments, by province, Figure Full- time Master s enrolments, by province, six smaller provinces, Figure 1.9 Full- time doctoral enrolments, by province, Figure 1.10 Full- time doctoral enrolments, by province, six smaller provinces, Figure 1.11 Full- time Master s enrolments by gender, Canada, Figure Full- time doctoral enrolments by gender, Canada, Figure 1.13 Numbers of full- time Master s enrolments by main field of study Figure Numbers of full- time doctoral enrolments by main field of study Figure 1.15 Full- time Master s enrolments, by international student status, Canada, Figure 1.16 Full- time doctoral enrolments, by international student status, Canada, Figure 1.17 Full- time Master s enrolments by age groups, Figure 1.18 Full- time doctoral enrolments by age groups, Figure 1.19 Projection of level of population in specific age groups, Canada, Figure 1.20 Number of full- time Master s enrolments per 1,000 population, by age groups, Canada, v

8 Figure Number of full- time Master s enrolments per 1,000 population, by age groups, by province, Figure Number of full- time doctoral enrolments per 1,000 population, by age groups, Canada, Figure Number of full- time doctoral enrolments per 1,000 population, by age groups, by province, Figure 1.24 Number of full- time international Master s enrolments, by age groups, Figure 1.25 Percentage distribution of full- time international Master s enrolments across age groups, Figure Number of full- time international doctoral enrolments, by age groups, Figure 1.27 Percentage distribution of full- time international doctoral enrolments across age groups, Figure 2.1 Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, Canada, Figure Master s and doctoral degrees awarded, percent change by year, Canada, Figure 2.3 Master s degrees awarded, by province, Figure Master s degrees awarded, by province, six smaller provinces, Figure 2.5 Doctoral degrees awarded, by province, Figure Doctoral degrees awarded, by province, six smaller provinces, Figure 2.7 Master s degrees awarded, by gender, Figure 2.8 Doctoral degrees awarded, by gender, Figure 2.9 Master s degrees awarded by international student status, Figure 2.10 Doctoral degrees awarded by international student status, Figure 2.11 Percent annual change in Master s degrees granted by international student status, Figure 2.12 Percent annual change in doctoral degrees granted by international student status, Figure Master s degrees awarded by main field of study, Figure Doctoral degrees awarded by main field of study, vi

9 Figure 2.15 Master s degrees awarded by age groups, Figure Doctoral degrees awarded, by age groups, Figure 2.17 Master s degrees awarded to international students, by age groups, Figure Doctoral degrees awarded to international students, by age groups, vii

10 1 Graduate enrolments 1.1 Introduction The objective of this report is to document the structure and trends in post-graduate enrolments and graduate degrees awarded in Canada. Specifically, information is presented on number enrolled and number of degrees granted for Master s and doctoral programs in Canada, in most cases for the years 1992 to. Where appropriate, these numbers are broken down by: province, gender, field of study, age, and international student status. Details of Master s and doctoral enrolments and degrees granted, by university, are presented in the Appendix which accompanies this report. All data in this report are based on tables provided to the Canadian Association of Graduate Studies by Universities Canada (formerly the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada) under an agreement signed by the two organizations. The Canadian Association of Graduate Studies would like to express its appreciation to Universities Canada and their staff for making these data available. 1.2 Executive summary Graduate enrolments: o In, there were 85, 674 students enrolled full-time in Master s programs in Canada, 34,476 part-time Master s students. These numbers are up from 40,989 full-time and 27,873 part-time in o In, there were 48,006 students enrolled full-time in doctoral programs in Canada; 2,595 part-time doctoral students. These numbers are up from 20,910 full-time and 4,203 part-time in o In, 54% of full-time Master s, 60% of part-time Master s, 47% of full-time doctoral and 50% of part-time doctoral students were female. o Full-time Master s enrolments have been more than 50% female in Canada since Full-time doctoral enrolments have been more than 50% male continuously since o In, 23% of full-time and 6% of part-time Master s enrolments were international students; 29% of full-time and 7% of part-time doctoral enrolments were international students. 1

11 o There have consistently been more international enrolments among males than females, from 1992 to, in both Master s and doctoral enrolments in Canada. o In, the main fields of study with the largest enrolments in full-time Master s programs were: Business, Management and Public Administration (16,686; 20%), Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies (13,683; 16%), Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law (12,561; 15%), and Health and Related Fields (12,018; 14%). These four fields have been increasing in number since the early 2000s. o In, the main fields of study with the largest enrolments in full-time doctoral programs were: Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies (10,128; 21%); Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law (9,864; 21%) and Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies (8,883; 19%). These three fields have been increasing since the late 1990s or the early 2000s. o Enrolments in both Master s and doctoral programs are concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, the two most populous provinces. In, 39% of full-time Master s enrolments were in universities in Ontario, 29% were in Quebec. In, 39% of full-time Master s enrolments were in Ontario and 30% of full-time doctoral enrolments were in Quebec. o Ontario has a low percent of international Master s enrolments (20% of full-time Master s in, compared to 23% for Canada as a whole). Newfoundland and Labrador s rate of international students in is the highest (39%). o Ontario also has the lowest percentage of international enrolments among full-time doctoral enrolments 21% in, compared to 29% for Canada. Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest rate of international enrollments among full-time doctoral enrolments in (45%). o In, the fields of study with the highest rate of international enrolments for full-time Master s programs were: Mathematics Computer and Information Sciences (44%), Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies (43%) and Business, Management and Public Administration (27%) o In, the fields of study with the highest rate of international enrolments for full-time doctoral programs were: Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies (47%), Mathematics Computer and Information Sciences (43%) and Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation (43%). o The highest number of full-time Master s enrolments in is in the year old age group. The age group that has been increasing the most in full-time Master s enrolments, from 1992 through, is the year old age group. o The highest number of full-time doctoral enrolments in is in the year old age group. It is also the age group that has increased the most in full-time doctoral enrolments from 1992 through. o There is important variation in the numbers and rates of change from 1992 to in age groups in the different provinces. 2

12 o Among full-time Master s enrolments, the percent which are international students is highest in the two youngest age groups (less than 25 years of age and years of age). o Among full-time doctoral enrolments, there are more international students in the two middle age groups (25-29 year olds and year olds). o There has been a change in the world regions from which international students are drawn for full-time Master s programs in Canada. There has been a decline in enrolments from Europe (16% of international enrolments in 1992, up to 24% in 1999; down to 13% in ). There has been an increase in full-time Master s enrolments from Asia (45% of international enrolments in 1992; down to 33% in 2000; up to 53% in ). o There was less change in the world regions from which international students were drawn for full-time doctoral programs in Canada. Enrolments from Europe made up 14% of international enrolments in 1992; this increased to 26% in 2000; and decreased to 18% in. Enrolments from Asia made up 45% of international enrolments in full-time doctoral programs in 1992; they made up 33% in 2000 and 53% in. o The majority (77% at the Canada level) of Canadian citizens and permanent residents report their province of permanent residence as the same one in which they are enrolled for graduate programs. o The percent of full-time Maser s enrolments that are from the same province is highest for Quebec (85%), Saskatchewan (83%) and Ontario (79%). Only 47% of those enrolled in full-time Master s programs in Nova Scotia list that province as their permanent residence; i.e. 53% are from elsewhere in Canada. o The majority (70%) of Canadian citizens and permanent residents enrolled in doctoral programs in Canada report their province of permanent residence as the same one in which they are enrolled for graduate programs. The provinces with the highest percent reporting their permanent residence as the one in which they are enrolled are: Prince Edward Island (88%, but very low numbers), Saskatchewan (79%) and Ontario (76%). Those provinces with low percentages from the same province (i.e. more from other areas of Canada) are: Nova Scotia (51% same province), Alberta (47% same province), and Newfoundland and Labrador (47% same province). Graduate degrees granted o In, there were 44,154 Master s degrees granted (up from 19,434 in 1992). In, there were 6,393 doctoral degrees granted (up from 3,125 in 1992). o In, 55% of the Master s degrees and 46% of the doctoral degrees were granted to females. o In, 19% of Master s degrees and 16% of doctoral degrees in Canada were granted to international students. 3

13 1.3 Information presented in the report As indicated, above, the information presented in this report is based on Statistics Canada data, provided to the Canadian Association for Graduate Studies by Universities Canada. This information is based on reports submitted by universities to Statistics Canada. No attempt has been made to verify the data sent by Universities Canada nor to compare the data from this report with earlier CAGS reports. This report differs from the 40 th CAGS Statistical Report in a number of ways: 1. Full-time and part-time enrolments are kept separate throughout this report whereas they are combined in much of the 40 th report. Most of the information in the current report includes details only on full-time enrolments. 2. Throughout the current report, Master s and doctoral enrolments are kept separate. They are often combined in the earlier report. 3. The current report includes a number of sections not included in earlier reports, including population projections and enrolment rates per 1,000 population. 4. There are more details by university reported in the Appendix to the current report. 5. There is more analysis, and more discussion of patterns and trends in the current report. Much but not all of the information provided in the current report may also be accessed directly from Statistics Canada s socioeconomic data base, CANSIM. Information on graduate enrolments can be found in CANSIM tables , , and ; that on degrees awarded are in CANSIM tables and (Some of the data on degrees awarded obtained from Universities Canada for this report were supplemented with data from CANSIM table to extend the time frame to match other tables.) If graduate programs were added or dropped, or changed in some way that affects either enrolment rates or degrees granted, these changes can have a major, unexplained, impact on numbers for the affected institution(s), and provincial totals. All the data provided are subject to Statistics Canada random rounding procedure (see below). This rounding can have a dramatic effect on those institutions with relative small numbers with respect to the measure being reported. For this reason, caution should be exercized in interpreting shifts over time when relatively small numbers are involved. 4

14 The information in the report takes various forms. One involves tables showing numbers, often over a time period. These numbers provide information on the volume of enrolments or degrees granted. So, if one wants to know what the trend in numbers is over time, or how many are enrolled in Master s or doctoral programs, or how many degrees were awarded at any given time, these tables provide the relevant detail. The tables by field of study can give an indication of how these graduate enrolments are clustered. However, it is important to keep in mind that identifying, for example, which field of study has the most enrolments to a large extent reflects how the fields are organized and collapsed. For example, combining Humanities and Social and Behavioural Sciences and Law would increase the number in that field. Information about the Classification of Instructional Programs, that forms the basis of the analyses of field of study, can be found at: Another type of analysis involves looking specifically at the extent of change over time. This procedure sometimes involves looking at the absolute increase over time (how many more or fewer students/graduates); other times the rate of growth (percentage change) over time is examined. Obviously the percentage change reflects the size of the change relative to the level at the starting point. An increase of 100 individuals is a larger percentage increase if one started at 500 than if the original number were 2,000. An important limitation to the data over time derives from the fact that there are sometimes missing or inconsistent data for particular institutions. For example, the University of Regina did not provide any data from , affecting both provincial and, sometimes, overall totals. There is an unexplained drop in degrees granted from the University of Saskatchewan from 2011 to. Also, there was an apparent change in the definition of full-time versus part-time at the University of Montreal in 1998, and at Concordia University in 2005, evident in the decrease in part-time enrolments and an equivalent increase in full-time enrolments. The latter is somewhat less obvious because of the large number of full-time enrolments, so changes at one institution have less of an effect. However, these shifts affect who is included in all of the full-time enrolments tables over time. Charts which complement (or sometimes replace) the detailed tables are used to visually illustrate the relevant changes over time. So, there are four key pieces of information presented in this report that will be of interest to readers: 1. The absolute number of enrolments or degrees granted in, the most recent year for which data are available. When these numbers are broken down by province, or gender, or immigration status, they give a portrait of graduate enrolments in Canada. 2. The number of enrolments or degrees granted over time. For most measures we have data from 1992 to ; for some just for In those sections where one is examining a detailed breakdown (e.g. by province or by field of study), presenting 5

15 all the data would make a table prohibitively large and complex. In order to clarify the relevant patterns, data are sometimes presented for 1992, and. However, as noted above, in most cases, more detail can be obtained from the CANSIM tables, listed above. 3. The change in enrolments or degrees granted over time. Again, for ease of presentation, in most instances these are presented for the years 1992 to (and sometimes also for changes and -). One or both of the absolute and percentage changes are presented. 4. The calculation of enrolments per 1,000 population by province compares the annual data on enrolments by age as a percent of the annual estimates of the total population, by age, as published by Statistics Canada. This allows a comparison of the intensity of enrolments on a per capita basis across provinces. Also included in this section are some Canada wide projections of the age groups in Canada showing the likely demographic shifts in these age groups over the next several years Methodological notes Notes from Statistics Canada: Fall snapshot: Enrolments are based on students enrolled in the postsecondary institutions at the time of the fall snapshot date, that is, a single date chosen by the institution which falls from September 30th to December 1st. Therefore students who are not enrolled during this time period are excluded and enrolment totals do not represent a full academic year. Program counts: It should also be noted, enrolments are based on program counts and not student counts. If a student is enrolled in more than one program as of the snapshot date, then all of their programs are included in the count. Random rounding: All counts are randomly rounded to a multiple of 3 using the following procedure: counts which are already a multiple of 3 are not adjusted; counts one greater than a multiple of 3 are adjusted to the next lowest multiple of 3 with a probability of two-thirds and to the next highest multiple of 3 with a probability of one-third. The probabilities are reversed for counts that are one less than a multiple of 3. Notes from Universities Canada: Use of estimates (Imputed institutions): Enrolment and graduate counts for certain institutions are preliminary or based on estimates. 11 The author is grateful to Ray D. Bollman for his contributions to this section using census data and projections. The data on population projections by age can be accessed in CANSIM Table at (See x eng.htm for details of the methodology.) 6

16 o University of Ontario Institute of Technology, o University of Victoria Institutions no longer surveyed: Due to a revision of the institutions in the survey, the following are not included as of 2008/2009 for enrolments and 2008 for graduates: in New Brunswick, Bethany Bible College; in Ontario, Institut de pastorale des Dominicains, Tyndale University College and Seminary, Redeemer University College, Royal Military College of Canada; in Alberta, Newman Theological College; in British Columbia, Regent College, Vancouver School of Theology, Trinity Western University, and Seminary of Christ the King. Changes in institutional status: The following institutions, previously colleges, changed to university status. o As of /2003 reporting year: Ontario College of Art and Design (Ontario); o as of 2004/2005 reporting year: Alberta College of Art and Design (Alberta); o as of 2005/2006 reporting year: University College of the Cariboo and Open Learning Agency (British Columbia); o as of 2008/2009 reporting year: Capilano College, Malaspina University College, Emily Carr Institute of Art and Design, Kwantlen University College and University College of the Fraser Valley (British Columbia); o as of 2009/2010 reporting year: Grant McEwan University and Mount Royal University (Alberta). Changes in registration status: Users of the enrolment data should be aware that many reporting anomalies exist in the institutional time-series. Some institutions have changed the course load requirements to classify students into the full- and parttime categories, causing significant breaks in at least their own institutional time series data o University of Manitoba to 1994, where to qualify for full-time study the course load requirement fell to 60% in 1994 from 80% in 1993; o Université de Montreal, changes as of 1997; o For University of Saskatchewan, the definition of full-time and part-time has changed. The registration status for enrolments in 2008/2009 refers to the September to December period. In the previous years, it referred to the September to April period. o University of British Columbia, changes as of Home province (province of residence): Under counting is likely due to incomplete reporting of permanent address. Use with caution. 7

17 Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Coding: The first Canadian version of this classification (listed in this report as field of study appeared in the year CIP coding in earlier years 1992 to should be interpreted with caution. University of Regina: From 2005 to 2008 enrolments and graduates counts for the University of Regina are not available. University of Saskatchewan: residency counts in the health-related programs are not included as of 2008/2009 for enrolments and 2008 for graduates. Quebec institutions: The graduate counts for the Quebec institutions up to and including 2008 do not include micro programs and attestations however, as of 2009, these are included. University of Winnipeg: A large portion of the graduate programs, (program type = 59) for University of Winnipeg for 2011/12 and /13 are not reported. These are the Theology and Marriage and Family programs. Due to a constraint in their student information system they cannot extract information on these programs. 1.5 Portrait of graduate enrolments in Canada, Table 1.1 gives an overview of the full-time and part-time Master s and doctoral enrolments in Canada, as of, the last date for which data are currently available. Enrolments totals are 85,674 full-time and 34,476 part-time Master s, 48,006 full-time and 2,595 doctoral enrolments. More than half (54%) of all full-time Master s enrolments are female. That pattern changes when one looks at full time doctoral enrolments; 47% of them are female. Females dominate part-time Master s enrolments (60% versus 40% for males). Part-time doctoral enrolments, which are a fraction of the full-time ones, are 50/50 male and female. Looking at the next several rows of Table 1.1, there is a concentration of graduate enrolments, (full-time and part-time, Master s and doctoral), in Ontario (with 39% of full-time Master s and doctoral enrolments) and Quebec (with 28% of full-time Master s and 30% of full-time doctoral enrolments). Next are British Columbia (13% of full-time Master s; 12% of full-time doctoral) and Alberta (9% of full-time Master s and 10% of full-time doctoral enrolments). Graduate enrolments in the Atlantic provinces and in the Prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan make up a much lower percentages of the Canadian totals. As of, 23% of full-time Master s and 29% of full-time doctoral enrolments were international students. Less than 10% of the part-time enrolments were international ones. Looking at age groups, not surprisingly the age concentrations of doctoral enrolments are in the older age categories. Only 5% of fulltime doctoral students are under 25 years of age, compared to 36% of full-time Master s enrolments. On the other hand, 26% of fulltime doctoral enrolments are 35 and over; only 15% of full-time Master s enrolments are in this age category. 8

18 The last section of Table 1.1gives the breakdown by main field of study. As indicated above, the size of any one field of study reflects how the classification was created how many sub-fields were combined to create a main field of study. Given that, the most interesting aspect of this section of the table may be the comparison of which fields have more Master s level enrolments and which more doctoral. There is a larger percentage of enrolments at the Master s than the doctoral level for Business, Management and Public Administration (20% versus 4%) and for Health and Related Fields (14% Master s, 8% doctoral). The reverse is true (a higher percentage of doctoral than Master s level enrolments) for: Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies (21% doctoral versus 10% Master s); Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law (21% versus 15%); and Humanities (10% doctoral versus 6% Master s). 9

19 Table 1.1 Profile of full-time and part-time Master s and doctoral enrolments in Canada, Full-time Master s Percent in Full-time Doctoral Percent in Part-time Master s Percent in Part-time Doctoral Percent in Total Enrolments Canada 85, % 48, % 34, % 2, % Gender Male 39, , , , Female 46, , , , Province of study 85,674 Newfoundland and Labrador 1, , Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 2, , New Brunswick , Quebec 23, , , Ontario 33, , , , Manitoba 1, Saskatchewan 2, , Alberta 7, , , British Columbia 11, , , International enrolments 19, , , Age groups <25 years 30, , , years 31, , , years 10, , , >35 years 13, , , , Main field of study Agriculture, Natural Resources & Conservation 3, , Architecture, Engineering &Related Technologies 13, , , Business, Management & Public Administration 16, , , Education 5, , , Health & Related Fields 12, , , Humanities 5, , Mathematics, Computer & Information Sciences 5, , , Personal, Protective & Transportation Services Physical and Life Sciences, & Technologies 8, , Social and Behavioural Sciences, & Law 12, , , Visual and Performing Arts, & Communications Technologies 2, , Other Source: Statistics Canada 10

20 1.6 Full- time and part- time enrolments at the Master s and doctoral levels The next stage is to examine the trends over time in full-time and part-time graduate enrolments in Master s and doctoral programs. As is evident from Table 1.2 and from Figure 1.1 full-time enrolments have increased over time, for both Master s and doctoral programs. The number of Master s enrolments has increased more than doctoral. In 1992 there were 40,989 students enrolled full-time in Master s programs; by this had increased to 85,674. During the same time period, full-time doctoral enrolments increased from 20,901 in 1992 to 48,006 in. Looking at the percentage increase over time for Master s enrolments the increase from 1992 to 2102 is 109%. For doctoral enrolments, the percentage increase for the same time period is 130%. The increases from to are somewhat larger than those prior to. In the one year from 2001 to there was a 10% increase in full-time Master s enrolments, and an 8% increase in full-time doctoral enrolments. Another increase of 12% is evident in the full-time doctoral enrolments from to

21 Table 1.2 Master s and Doctoral full-time and part-time enrolments in Canada, Full-time Full-time Full-time Full-time Full-time Full-time Part-time Part-time Part-time Part-time Part-time Part-time Year Master s Master s Doctoral Doctoral Master s Master s Doctoral Doctoral Master's Doctoral Master's Doctoral degree degree - degree - degree - degree - degree - degree - degree - degree - degree - degree- degree - annual % annual annual % annual annual % annual annual % annual number number number number change change change change change change change change ,989 20,910 27,873 4, ,156 1, ,122 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,796 2, ,724 1, ,499-1, ,781-1, ,935 2, , , , , , , , ,574 2, , ,775 1, , ,638 5, ,595 1, ,080 1, , ,297 4, ,874 3, , , ,591 3, ,511 2, , , ,875 1, ,455 1, ,144-1, , ,966 2, ,723 2, , , ,034 4, ,601 1, ,981 1, , ,494 2, ,260 1, ,931-1, , ,484 3, ,158 2, ,394 2, , ,715 3, ,102 1, , , ,313 2, ,782 1, , , ,674 2, ,006 1, , , Source: Statistics Canada 12

22 Figure Full-time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, ,000 80,000 Number of full-time enrolments 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Master's Doctoral 10, Source: Statistics Canada. Full-time Master s enrolments have been increasing since Full-time doctoral enrolments, on the other hand, started increasing in Recall the earlier note on the inclusion of graduate students for seven new universities in , mentioned in the methodological notes. 13

23 While the numbers of full-time Master s students increased more than the numbers of doctoral students, as Figure 1.2 shows, the rate of change for doctoral enrolments has been greater than that for Master s enrolments since in all years except Figure Percent change in full-time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada Year-to-year percent change in full-time enrolments 10 Master's Doctoral Source: Statistics Canada. 14

24 Turning next to part-time enrolments, enrolment in doctoral programs has not increased since Indeed, they decreased in 1998 and have stayed low. See Figure 1.3. This decline is almost totally due to changes in the classification of part-time/full-time at the University of Montreal. 2 2 Note the Statistics Canada caution that some institutions have changed the course load requirements to classify students into the full- and part-time categories, causing significant breaks in the institutional time series data, and thus in the overall number of part-time students. (e.g for the University of Manitoba the course load requirement to qualify as a full-time student went from 80% to 60% in Université de Montreal made a similar change in 1997, and the University of British Columbia in 2009). 15

25 Figure Part-time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, ,000 35,000 Number of part-time enrolments 30,000 25,000 20,000 Master's Doctoral 15,000 10,000 5, Source: Statistics Canada. Part-time Master s enrolments, on the other hand, have gradually increased over time, to a high of over 30,000 in. 16

26 Figure 1.4 shows that the rate of change for part-time doctoral enrolments is higher than for part-time Master s enrolments, with some dramatic decreases in the data series for doctoral enrolments from 1997 to 1998 (due to changes at the University of Montreal), from to 2003, and from 2008 to Figure Percent change in part-time Master s and doctoral enrolments, Canada, Year-to-year percent change in part-time enrolments 6 Master's Doctoral Source: Statistics Canada. 17

27 For the next sections of the report dealing with enrolments (by province, by gender and by field of study), only details of full-time enrolments will be presented and discussed. (Some details on part-time enrolments are found in the Appendix to this Report- see Tables A3 and A4.) Full-time and part-time enrolments are not combined into a total for a number of reasons. One is that the definition of part-time can vary across institutions and over time at a particular institution. Secondly, there is variation in how one would translate part-time enrolments into full-time equivalents, if one needs that information. Also, while it probably is rare, an individual student could be enrolled in more than one program, and even more than one institution part-time (or full-time at one and part-time at another), so adding the two sets of numbers does not give an accurate measure of number of individuals enrolled. Further, as Figure 1.5 and Figure 1.6 show, the changes in the number of enrolments over time almost totally reflects changes in fulltime enrolments. Not only are part-time enrolments low relative to full-time ones, but they change little over time. In other words, detailed analyses of part-time enrolments will add little, especially given the problematic nature of the part-time data, outlined above. 18

28 Figure 1.5 Master s enrolments, full-time, part-time and total, ,000 Number of Master's enrolments 120, ,000 Total enrolments Full-time Part-time 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Source: Statistics Canada. 19

29 Figure 1.6 Doctoral enrolments, full-time, part-time and total, ,000 Number of Doctoral enrolments 50,000 Total enrolments 40,000 Full-time Part-time 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Statistics Canada. 20

30 1.7 Full- time enrolments by Province One question that arises is whether the changes over time are present in all provinces across the country or whether some provinces (particularly the larger ones) are driving the increases at the Canada level. Figure 1.7 shows that the latter is the case for the increase in Master s enrolments. Indeed, most of the upward trend in the plot line is driven by increases in Master s enrolments in Ontario, from 14,448 in 1992 to 33,393 in. There is a lesser absolute increase in Quebec, from 12,372 in 1992 to 23,718 in, still a substantial change. British Columbia and Alberta have lower levels of enrolments and lower levels of increase, while the other provinces show fairly stable numbers over the twenty year time period. When one examines provincial level data throughout this report, it is important to keep the following cautions in mind. In several provinces, only one or two universities have graduate programs. In others, one or more universities contain the lion s share of these programs. This means that changes to a program or programs in one university can have sometimes dramatic effects on provincial totals. If a program is added or dropped; if changes occur to regulations driving enrolments or the timing of degrees, these changes will affect the patterns in the province as a whole. 21

31 Figure Full-time Master s enrolments, by province, ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Number of full-time Master's enrolments Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta Nova Scotia 15,000 Saskatchewan 10,000 Manitoba 5, Newfoundland & Labrador New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Note: Saskatchewan data are not shown for 2005 to 2008 due to the lack of data from the University of Regina. Source: Statistics Canada. Figure 1.8 expands the scale to display the variation that does exist in the level of enrolments in the six smaller provinces. Numbers of full-time Master s enrolments have increased in Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador, with some increase in recent years in Manitoba and Prince Edward Island. Those in New Brunswick show little change, with a recent downturn in numbers. 22

32 (The gap from for Saskatchewan reflects the fact that the University of Regina did not submit information for those years, so the Saskatchewan totals cannot accurately be calculated.) Figure Full-time Master s enrolments, by province, six smaller provinces, ,800 2,400 2,000 Number of full-time Master's enrolments 6 smaller provinces Nova Scotia Saskatchewan 1,600 Manitoba 1, Newfoundland & Labrador New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Note: Saskatchewan data are not shown for 2005 to 2008 due to the lack of data from the University of Regina. Source: Statistics Canada. Note that for all provinces except British Columbia (Figure 1.7), and New Brunswick (Figure 1.8) there has been a numeric increase in full-time Master s enrolments since

33 There is a similar pattern for full-time doctoral enrolments. As was evident in Figure 1.1 the numbers in doctoral enrolments are, understandably, much lower than the numbers in Master s programs, since not all Master s graduates will pursue a doctoral degree. The same figure shows that the numerical increase from was less pronounced for doctoral enrolments. Figure 1.9 documents that full-time doctoral enrolments and the increase in full-time doctoral enrolments are concentrated in Ontario, Quebec, and to a lesser extent, British Columbia and Alberta. These four large provinces show an increase in full-time doctoral enrolments since the beginning of the 2000s. 24

34 Figure 1.9 Full-time doctoral enrolments, by province, ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Number of full-time doctoral enrolments Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Nova Scotia Newfoundland & Labrador New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Note: Saskatchewan data are not shown for 2005 to 2008 due to the lack of data from the University of Regina. Source: Statistics Canada. 25

35 Figure 1.10 Full-time doctoral enrolments, by province, six smaller provinces, ,200 1,000 Number of full-time doctoral enrolments Saskatchewan Manitoba Nova Scotia 400 Newfoundland & Labrador 200 New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Note: Saskatchewan data are not shown for 2005 to 2008 due to the lack of data from the University of Regina. Source: Statistics Canada. For full-time doctoral enrolment among the six smaller provinces, all except Prince Edward Island show an increase since about the year This increase is most pronounced in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (The gap from 2005 to 2008 in Saskatchewan reflects the missing information from the University of Regina in those years.) 26

36 Table 1.3 Change in full-time Master s enrolments, by province, 1992-, -, 1992-; ranked by rate of growth Provinces, ranked by rate of growth, Number 1992 Number Number Numeric change Numeric change - Numeric change Percentage change Total Canada 40,989 55,638 85,674 14,649 30,036 44, Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador , Alberta 3,045 4,362 7,281 1, , Ontario 14,448 19,839 33,393 5,391 13,554 18, Saskatchewan 1,164 1,326 2, ,197 1, British Columbia 5,631 7,893 11,379 2,262 3,486 5, Quebec 12,372 17,199 23,718 4,827 6,519 11, Nova Scotia 1,563 2,046 2, , Manitoba 1,449 1,215 1, New Brunswick Source: Statistics Canada While Figure 1.7 showed visually that Master s enrolments increased numerically the most from 1992 to in Ontario, Quebec, and in British Columbia and Alberta, Table 1.3 shows that the rate of change is much higher in other provinces, particularly those who started with low numbers. Master s enrolments in Prince Edward Island increased by almost 900%, from only 24 enrolments in 1992 to 231in. The lowest rate of increase in Master s enrolments was in New Brunswick only 21% (going from 777 enrolments in 1992 to 941 in ). 27

37 Table Change in full-time doctoral enrolments, by province, 1992-, -, 1992-; ranked by rate of growth Provinces, ranked by rate of growth, Number 1992 Number Number Numeric change Numeric change - Numeric change Percentage change Total Canada 20,910 26,595 48,006 5,685 21,411 27, Newfoundland and Labrador Saskatchewan , Quebec 5,505 8,193 14,577 2,688 6,384 9, Alberta 1,887 2,490 4, ,364 2, Ontario 8,820 10,716 18,861 1,896 8,145 10, British Columbia 2,922 3,288 5, ,571 2, New Brunswick Nova Scotia Manitoba Prince Edward Island * Source: Statistics Canada *Prince Edward Island had no doctoral enrolments in 1992 so % change cannot be calculated Table 1.4 shows the parallel figures for doctoral enrolments. Here we see that the largest rates of increase are in Newfoundland and Labrador (241% increase, from 147 to 501) and Saskatchewan, a 191% increase (from 387 doctoral enrolments in 1992 to 1,128 in ). The rate for Prince Edward Island cannot be calculated since there were no doctoral enrolments in However, the two other Maritime provinces and Manitoba show rates of increase of less than 100% over the twenty year time frame. 1.8 Full- time enrolments by Gender Figure 1.11 shows that the overall trend of increasing numbers in Master s enrolments occurs for both males and females. The pattern of increase is very similar for both. However, since 1997, more females than males were enrolled in full-time Master s programs. By, there were 46,572 females enrolled full-time in Master s level programs, compared to 39,084 males. 28