Quarterly Report 2Q16

Transcription

1 Hays Consolidated Independent School District Quarterly Report 2Q16 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Austin Area (June 2016) 4.0% 38,400 new jobs National rate 1.7% Unemployment Rate 13,407 2,066 more than 2Q15 Job Growth U.S. 5.1% Texas 4.8% Austin MSA 3.3% Hays County 3.6% -0.2% Annualized Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

3 Buda-Kyle Housing Market Year-Over-Year Comparisons YTD Sales (661 Sales in June 2016) 17.4% Average Price ($245,788 in June 2016) Median Price ($238,485 in June 2016) 6.6% 5.5% Total Listings (195 in June 2016) Months Inventory (1.9 Months Supply) 18.7% 31.7% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center 3

4 Hays CISD Home Sales 2015 Home Sales by Type Hays CISD 2015 Home Sales by Type New Home Sales, 1,044, 34.89% Foreclosure, 82, 2.74% REO Sale, 178, 5.95% Regular Resale, 1,688, 56.42% The district had 2,992 home sales in 2015, and roughly 35% were of new homes The average sale price in 2015 for a new home was $243,347, a rise of 5.1% over 2014 The average sale price in 2015 for an existing home was $221,143 Source: Metrostudy and Williamson County Deed Transactions 4

5 Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q16 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 2,092 2,024 3,674 10,918 2 Hays CISD 1,673 1,471 1,595 34,818* 3 Round Rock ISD 1,274 1,298 1,644 3,999 4 Austin ISD 1,831 1,279 1,505 11,341 5 Pflugerville ISD 1,123 1,013 1,954 12,068 6 Georgetown ISD 1, ,425 18,169 7 Hutto ISD ,168 3,331 8 Lake Travis ISD ,210 2,722 9 Manor ISD , Del Valle ISD , Liberty Hill ISD ,550 5, Dripping Springs ISD ,114 3, Jarrell ISD , Elgin ISD , San Marcos ISD , Lockhart ISD , Bastrop ISD ,439 17, Lago Vista ISD , Luling ISD Taylor ISD *Totals adjusted based on additional TD research Source: Metrostudy 5

6 New Housing Activity Hays CISD 1,600 Annual Starts Annual Closings Avg. Inventory 1,400 1,200 1, Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total ,172 1, Total ,116 1, Annual start rate is now more than 1,600 homes The district is on pace to close 1,400+ homes in 2016 Current inventory supply is for 5.7 months 6

7 Annual Closing Distribution 2Q16 Elementary Annual Closings BLANCO VISTA 121 BUDA 94 CAMINO REAL 0 CARPENTER HILL 13 ELM GROVE 196 FUENTES 94 HEMPHILL 0 KYLE 91 NEGLEY 69 PFLUGER 148 SCIENCE HALL 52 TOBIAS 158 TOM GREEN 379 Grand Total 1,415 7

8 Vacant Developed Lots 2Q16 Elementary VDL BLANCO VISTA 251 BUDA 112 CAMINO REAL 0 CARPENTER HILL 285 ELM GROVE 45 FUENTES 34 HEMPHILL 0 KYLE 71 NEGLEY 125 PFLUGER 63 SCIENCE HALL 51 TOBIAS 214 TOM GREEN 344 Grand Total 1,595 8

9 Future Lots 2Q16 Elementary FUTURE BLANCO VISTA 5,578 BUDA 167 CAMINO REAL 60 CARPENTER HILL 1,331 ELM GROVE 0 FUENTES 2,804 HEMPHILL 6,445 KYLE 284 NEGLEY 10,166 PFLUGER 1,074 SCIENCE HALL 1,149 TOBIAS 1,520 TOM GREEN 4,240 Grand Total 34,818* *Totals adjusted based on additional TD research- added future developments include La Salle, Anthem, Crosswinds, Blanco River Ranch, Caldwell Ranch and Bailey Tract 9

10 District Housing Overview Hays CISD has 1,595 lots available to build on The district has more than 34,818 planned future lots 10

11 Residential Activity Sunfield Sunfield 4,725 total lots 3,905 futures 604 occupied 163 VDL 36 homes under construction Groundwork on 27 additional lots Building 200 homes per year Tom Green Elementary 11

12 Residential Activity Blanco Vista Blanco Vista 2,402 total lots 1,485 futures 572 occupied 251 VDL 54 homes U/C Building 160 homes per year Blanco Vista Elementary 12

13 Residential Activity White Oak Preserve and Stonewood Commons White Oak Preserve 190 total lots 127 future lots 8 U/C 55 VDL Building 60 homes a year $200K - $350K Buda Elementary Stonewood Commons 48 total lots 9 future lots 13 occupied 16 VDL 10 U/C $200K - $260K Buda Elementary 13

14 Residential Activity Crosswinds Crosswinds 1,748 total lots Phase 1 final plat under review with city Roadways are currently under construction Groundwork on Phase 1, 241 lots, starting late 2016 Split between Pfluger Elementary and Science Hall Elementary Phase 1 14

15 Residential Activity Bunton Creek Village and Great Hills Great Hills 290 delivered manufactured home lots Future Phase 6 with 69 lots under construction Phase 7 with 80 lots is in the planning process Construction is anticipated to begin Summer 2017 Owner anticipates build out after Phase 8 with 60 lots Hemphill Elementary Ph 6 Bunton Creek Village 735 total lots 385 future lots 268 occupied 34 VDL 45 homes U/C Building ~100 homes a year 147 lots under construction Additional groundwork coming fall 2016 Fuentes Elementary 15

16 Residential Activity Cypress Forest Cypress Forest 311 total lots 219 future lots 90 VDL 2 U/C Homebuilding began July 2016 Anticipate building homes a year $200K - $400K Negley Elementary 16

17 Multi-Family Update Marketplace Ave Extension Apartment Fairway Landings at Plum Creek Units Low Income 216 Yes Status Under Review; starting construction Fall 2016 Impact Late 2017 Elem Zone Negley 2 Aria at Plum Creek 180 No Nearing completion Fall 2016 Negley Future Plum Creek 8 acres rezoned for MF 3 N/A No 2018 Kyle Apartments development 4 Oaks of Kyle 204 No Nearing completion Fall 2016 Fuentes Spring Science 5 Lakeside Crossing 288 No Adding 166 MH lots 2017 Hall 6 Hays Junction Apartments 207 No First units leasing Summer 2016 Fall 2016 Science Hall 17

18 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2011/ ,228 1,302 1,256 1,256 1,230 1,271 1,214 1,205 1,174 1,201 1, , / ,267 1,295 1,335 1,287 1,297 1,255 1,333 1,232 1,237 1,306 1,126 1, , % 2013/ ,348 1,348 1,317 1,380 1,325 1,368 1,303 1,362 1,258 1,337 1,266 1,017 1,006 17, % 2014/ ,344 1,425 1,396 1,386 1,408 1,397 1,405 1,358 1,414 1,372 1,307 1,129 1,006 17, % 2015/ ,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18, % 2016/ ,360 1,400 1,486 1,562 1,523 1,540 1,527 1,494 1,494 1,550 1,507 1,246 1,114 19, % 2017/ ,412 1,452 1,475 1,572 1,646 1,611 1,602 1,584 1,541 1,631 1,503 1,413 1,190 20, % 2018/ ,466 1,509 1,522 1,550 1,663 1,752 1,691 1,654 1,634 1,689 1,586 1,382 1,352 21, % 2019/ ,542 1,576 1,591 1,604 1,651 1,778 1,816 1,747 1,706 1,785 1,659 1,465 1,329 21, % 2020/ ,639 1,662 1,653 1,678 1,711 1,771 1,846 1,871 1,806 1,867 1,731 1,536 1,399 22, % 2021/ ,717 1,736 1,750 1,756 1,772 1,808 1,837 1,910 1,923 1,975 1,811 1,594 1,468 23, % 2022/ ,799 1,854 1,837 1,873 1,863 1,890 1,872 1,896 1,976 2,102 1,915 1,672 1,521 24,695 1, % 2023/ ,887 1,908 1,940 1,942 1,980 1,963 1,961 1,922 1,957 2,159 2,036 1,765 1,597 25, % 2024/ ,968 2,038 2,009 2,058 2,065 2,094 2,038 2,005 1,973 2,139 2,091 1,874 1,685 26,663 1, % 2025/ ,049 2,098 2,135 2,127 2,192 2,193 2,158 2,083 2,049 2,156 2,071 1,924 1,789 27, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Hays CISD may reach 19,000 students by this fall, and more than 20,000 by year growth = 4,142 students 2020/21 enrollment = 22, year growth = 8,996 students 2025/26 enrollment = 27,650 18

19 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/ / / / / / / / / / /26 BLANCO VISTA ELEMENTARY ,006 1,063 1,106 1,145 1,187 1,230 1,273 BUDA ELEMENTARY CAMINO REAL ELEMENTARY CARPENTER HILL ELEMENTARY ELM GROVE ELEMENTARY ,084 1,107 1,101 1,062 1,029 1,011 1, FUENTES ELEMENTARY ,132 1,201 1,272 1,322 GREEN ELEMENTARY ,023 1,144 1,252 1,376 1,496 1,629 1,767 HEMPHILL ELEMENTARY ,053 1,147 1,247 KYLE ELEMENTARY NEGLEY ELEMENTARY ,068 1,170 1,276 1,377 PFLUGER ELEMENTARY SCIENCE HALL ELEMENTARY TOBIAS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ,046 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL 9,766 9,172 9,497 9,794 10,088 10,368 10,740 11,165 11,742 12,246 12,858 13,420 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 2.40% 3.54% 3.13% 3.00% 2.78% 3.59% 3.96% 5.17% 4.29% 5.00% 4.37% *Yellow box = campus exceeds stated enrollment capacity 3 elementary campuses are currently over stated capacity 8 elementary campuses may be over stated capacity by year elementary growth: 1,568 students 10 year elementary growth: 4,248 students 19

20 Ten Year Forecast By Middle School & High School Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/ / / / / / / / / / /26 BARTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 1, ,042 CHAPA MIDDLE SCHOOL ,021 1,061 1,145 DAHLSTROM MIDDLE SCHOOL ,029 1,045 1,029 1,027 1,021 SIMON MIDDLE SCHOOL ,000 MCCORMICK MIDDLE SCHOOL WALLACE MIDDLE SCHOOL ,034 1,011 1,035 1,089 1,134 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 4,950 4,293 4,515 4,727 4,979 5,269 5,523 5,670 5,744 5,840 6,016 6,290 Middle School Absolute Growth Middle School Percent Growth 2.78% 5.17% 4.70% 5.33% 5.82% 4.82% 2.66% 1.31% 1.67% 3.01% 4.55% LIVE OAK ACADEMY HAYS HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,611 2,721 2,915 2,976 3,075 3,206 3,359 3,579 3,754 3,917 3,999 LEHMAN HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,432 2,584 2,702 2,907 3,043 3,205 3,367 3,509 3,681 3,750 3,819 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 4,600 5,185 5,413 5,733 6,005 6,233 6,529 6,845 7,205 7,553 7,785 7,936 High School Absolute Growth High School Percent Growth 7.77% 4.40% 5.92% 4.74% 3.80% 4.74% 4.83% 5.27% 4.82% 3.07% 1.94% HAYS CO JJAEP ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL TOTAL DISTRICT TOTAL 19,316 18,654 19,429 20,258 21,076 21,874 22,796 23,684 24,695 25,643 26,663 27,650 District Absolute Growth , , District Percent Growth 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% *Yellow box = campus exceeds stated enrollment capacity 3 middle school campuses may be over stated capacity by this fall Both High School campuses are currently over stated capacity 5 year middle school growth: 1,230 students 5 year high school growth: 1,344 students 20

21 Summary Austin MSA new home starts are up 18.2% this year at the end of the second quarter. Hays CISD closed almost 400 new homes in 2Q16, nearly one hundred more than 2Q15 closes. More than a 35% of homes sold in Hays CISD were new homes at an average price of just over $243,000. McCormick Middle School will open next fall with approximately 670 students. HCISD can expect an increase of approximately 4,100 students during the next 5 years. 2020/21 enrollment projection: 22,796. Hays CISD is projected to have 27,650 students for the 2025/26 school year. 21