Workshop Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Workshop Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies"

Evan Hamilton
6 years ago
Views:

Workshop Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies 18-19 September 2014

project Implications of the Shifting Gender Balance in Education for Reproductive Behaviour in Europe.

Agreement no. 312290 for the GENDERBALL project.

1 Workshop Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies September 2014 University of Leuven () Centre for Sociological Research Parkstraat Leuven Belgium Organized in the context of the ERC project Implications of the Shifting Gender Balance in Education for Reproductive Behaviour in Europe. Funded by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/ ) / ERC Grant Agreement no for the GENDERBALL project. Principal Investigator: Jan Van Bavel Co-sponsored by the Concerted Research Action New Approaches to the Social Dynamics of Long Term Fertility Change ( grant) and Scientific Research Group Historical Demography (Research Foundation Flanders) 1

Workshop Venue The workshop will take place in the Raadzaal of the Faculty of Social Sciences. The exact address is: Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, Parkstraat 45, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.

Main entrance Direction of train station Raadzaal Bus stop Way to the workshop venue Getting There By Train You can find up-to-date information about train arrivals at the homepage of the Belgian

2 Workshop Venue The workshop will take place in the Raadzaal of the Faculty of Social Sciences. The exact address is: Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, Parkstraat 45, 3000 Leuven, Belgium. Once you have arrived at the premises of the Faculty of Social Sciences, you can reach the Raadzaal by entering through the main entrance and then immediately walking to the left. Main entrance Direction of train station Raadzaal Bus stop Way to the workshop venue Getting There By Train You can find up-to-date information about train arrivals at the homepage of the Belgian railway company NMBS ( Walking from the train station to the workshop venue takes about 15 minutes. A ride with a taxi costs about 5. If you want to take the bus, you can take the lines 4, 5, or 6. You will need to get off at the stop named Rustoord Remy. From this stop it is a 400 meters walk to the venue. By Car You can get detailed directions from Google Maps by following this link and entering your point of departure: m3!4m2!1m0!1m0. 2

By Plane Brussels Airport is at about 20 kilometers distance from Leuven in Zaventem. You can find detailed information about how to get to Leuven from there at the webpage of the airport (http://www.

3 By Plane Brussels Airport is at about 20 kilometers distance from Leuven in Zaventem. You can find detailed information about how to get to Leuven from there at the webpage of the airport ( The best and quickest way to get to Leuven from the airport is by train: it is only a 17 minutes train ride. Dinner Venue The dinner will take place at the Faculty Club ( which is at about 10 minutes walking distance from the workshop venue. The exact address is: Groot Begijnhof 14, 3000 Leuven, Belgium. The Faculty Club is located at the ancient historical site of the Grand Beguinage, which was included in the UNESCO World Heritage List in March 2000 ( We highly recommend having a walk in the Grand Beguinage before the dinner. Workshop venue Dinner venue Way from the workshop venue to the dinner venue 3

Start and End of the Guided City Tour The guided tour will start/end at the Grote Markt, in front of the City Hall. The exact address is: Grote Markt 9, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.

4 Start and End of the Guided City Tour The guided tour will start/end at the Grote Markt, in front of the City Hall. The exact address is: Grote Markt 9, 3000 Leuven, Belgium. There are a large number of restaurants on and around the Grote Markt. It is therefore possible to have dinner there right before or after the guided tour. You can find additional information about local sights, restaurants, and the famous Belgian beers by following this link: 4

5 Presentations and Poster Format Presentations Each presentation is scheduled in a 30 minutes time slot. Please count on 15 minutes for the presentation itself and 15 minutes for discussion. The room will contain a beamer and a whiteboard with markers. We will provide a presentation laptop that uses Windows 7 as the operating system and has MS Power Point 2010 and Adobe Acrobat Reader XI preinstalled. You can transfer your presentation to this laptop via an USB-stick on the day of your presentation. If you want to make use of your own laptop, please ensure that you can connect it to the VGA cable of the beamer and bring any adapters that are necessary for this. Posters Posters will be put on display in the foyer of the Faculty of Social Science. We would like to ask the authors of posters to stay close to them during the poster session on Friday, for discussion with the other participants of the workshop. As a guideline for the poster format, please aim for a size of about 90cmX120cm ( 35 X47 ). You can place your poster in the in the foyer on Friday morning, before the keynote speech. Questions and Problems If you have any questions about the program or experience problems with organizing your trip, please do not hesitate to contact us via abm.workshop@soc.kuleuven.be. André Grow and Jan Van Bavel 5

6 Programme Thursday, 18 th of September 08:30 Workshop Registration and Coffee 09:15 Welcome by Prof. Bart Kerremans, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences 09:25 Aims of the Workshop Jan Van Bavel 09:45 Session 1 ABM and Paradigms in Population Studies (Chair: Jan Van Bavel) 1) System-Based Modelling: A New Paradigm for Demography? Eric Silverman, Jakub Bijak, Daniel Courgeau, and Robert Franck 2) Widening the Scopes of Demographic Micro Simulation by Adding Components of Agent-Based Modelling Sabine Zinn 10:45 Coffee Break 11:00 Session 2 Designing, Analysing, and Reporting ABMs (Chair: Giovanni Samaey) 3) JAS 2: A New Java Platform for Agent-Based and Micro Simulation Modeling Matteo Richiardi and Michele Sonnessa 4) Statistical Emulators for Agent-Based Models: Quantifying Uncertainty Jason Hilton and Jakub Bijak 5) How to Describe Agent Based Migration Models? Jürgen Groeneveld and Anna Klabunde 12:30 Lunch Break 14:00 Session 3 Modelling Demographic Processes I (Chair: Koenraad Matthijs) 6) An ABM Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour Frans Willekens 7) Gender Relations and Fertility: An Agent-Based Approach Thomas Fent and Bernhard Rengs 15:00 Coffee Break 15:30 Session 4 - Modelling Demographic Processes II (Chair: Koenraad Matthijs) 8) On the Determinants of Health Inequalities Explorations using the Theoretical Health Inequality Model (THIM) Michael Wolfson and Reed Beall 9) Son Preference, Fertility Decline and Sex-Selective Abortions in India: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach to Understanding Sex Ratio at Birth and Fertility Trajectories Ridhi Kashyap and Francisco Villavicencio Goula 16:30 17:30 General Discussion and Closing of Day 1 (Chair: Jan Van Bavel) 19:00 Workshop Dinner 6

7 Friday, 19 th of September 09:00 Keynote Speech The Role of Social Interactions in Demography: An Agent Based Modelling Approach Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz 10:00 Poster Session and Coffee Deciding to Disclose: Pregnancy and Alcohol Misuse Jonathan Gray, Jakub Bijak, and Seth Bullock A Validated Agent-Based Model to Study the Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities of Malaria Incidence in a Small Community of Northern Peruvian Amazon Carlos F. Mena, Francesco Pizzitutti, William Pan, Alisson Barbieri, Jaime Miranda, Beth Feingold, and Gilvan R. Guedes Smoking Inequalities in School-Aged Teenagers: An Agent-Based Approach Victoria Soto Rojas, Jean-Christophe Chiêm, Julian Perelman, and Vincent Lorant Applying Agent-Based Modelling in Studying Demand- and Supply-Side Barriers Influencing Effectiveness of Management of Severe Acute Malnutrition in Primary Health Care in Low-Income Countries Hedwige Deconinck, Carine Van Malderen, Jan Macq, and Jean-Christophe Chiem The Link Between Transfers and Social Support Within the Family Fanny A. Kluge and Tobias C. Vogt 11:00 Session 5 Infusing Models with Data I (Chair: Geert Molenberghs) 10) Assortative Mating and the Reversal of Gender Inequality in Higher Education in Europe An Agent-Based Model André Grow and Jan Van Bavel 11) Determinants of Fertility Postponement in Spain. An Agent-Based Modelling Approach Daniel Ciganda and Francisco Villavicencio Goula 12) Low Fertility in Japan: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach Mary C. Brinton, Lingxin Hao, and LeTian Zhang 12:30 Lunch break 14:00 Session 6 Infusing Models with Data II (Chair: Geert Verbeke) 13) Could the Fertility Decline in Space and Time just be a Communication Process? Agent-Based Model Experiments with Swedish Data Sebastian Klüsener, Francesco Scalone, and Martin Dribe 14) Bridging Agent-Based Models and Population Reality: Rural-Urban Migration in China Lingxin Hao, Michael Makowsky, and Andrew Cherlin 15) Development of a Survey Data-Based Agent-Based Model of Armed Conflict and Population Dynamics Nathalie E. Williams, Michelle L. O'Brien, and Xiaozheng Yao 15:30 Conclusions of the Workshop: Recent Developments and Future Directions in Agent- Based Modelling in Population Studies Francesco Billari 16:00 16:30 18:00 19:00 General Discussion, Publication Plans, and Closing of the Workshop (Chair: Jan Van Bavel) Guided Tour of Leuven 7

8 List of Participants Barbieri, Alisson Bijak, Jakub Billari, Francesco Booth, Heather Brinton, Mary Chiem, Jean Christophe Ciganda, Daniel Courgeau, Daniel De Hauw, Yolien de Mulder, Wim Deconinck, Hedwig Fent, Thomas Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia Gray, Jonathan Groeneveld, Jürgen Grow, André Hao, Lingxin Hilton, Jason Holvoet, Tom Kashyap, Ridhi Klabunde, Anna Klesment, Martin Kluesener, Sebastian Kluge, Fanny A. Larmuseau, Maarten Larsen, Edvard Liang, Cheng Lorant, Vincent Makowsky, Mike Matsuo, Hideko Matthijs, Koenraad Mena, Carlos F. Molenberghs, Geert O'Brien, Michelle Otava, Martin Pizzitutti, Francesco Puschman, Paul Rengs, Bernhard Richiardi, Matteo Samaey, Giovanni Schnor, Christine Silverman, Eric Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais University of Southampton University of Oxford Australian National University Harvard University University Pompeu Fabra Institut national d'études démographiques Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences TU Wien, Vienna Institute of Demography University of Southampton Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Johns Hopkins University University of Southampton Nuffield College, University of Oxford University of Oslo Sun Yat-sen University Johns Hopkins University Universidad San Francisco de Quito U Hasselt University of Washington University Hasselt Universidad San Francisco de Quito Vienna Institute of Technology University of Torino University of Southampton 8

9 Soto, Victoria Eugenia Trimarchi, Alessandra Van Bavel, Jan Van Malderen, Carine Verbeke, Geert Villavicencio Goula, Francisco Vogt, Tobias C. Willekens, Frans Williams, Nathalie E Wolfson, Michael Zinn, Sabine University of Washington University of Ottawa Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research, Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories Scientific Committee Jan Van Bavel (Centre for Sociological Research, ) André Grow (Centre for Sociological Research, ) Koenraad Matthijs (Centre for Sociological Research, ) Geert Molenberghs (Centre for Statistics, U Hasselt) Giovanni Samaey (Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics, ) Geert Verbeke (Leuven Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics Centre, ) 9

International Business Week - Finance

International Business Week - Finance 4 th edition Banking simulation A challenge in FINANCE! Leuven 7 March - 11 March 2016 Outline of the programme The main target of this week is to let you work in