Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. and Rosetta Stone Communications
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1 Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. and Rosetta Stone Communications P R E S S R E L E A S E 1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Steve Mitchell February 28, 2012 John Garst Romney Retakes Lead in Michigan Romney 37% - Santorum 36% - Gingrich 9%- Paul 9% EAST LANSING, Mich. Romney seems to have stopped the momentum Santorum had over the weekend and has now moved back into the lead in the latest Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service) Monday night. The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, with Romney (37%) gaining 2% and Santorum (36%) dropping 1% to lose his lead. Newt Gingrich (9%) and Ron Paul (9%) are locked in a battle for third place. Nine point five percent remains undecided. The telephone survey of N=781 likely 2012 Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted jointly by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. of East Lansing, Michigan and Rosetta Stone Communications of Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, February 27, 2012, and has a margin of error of + or 3.51%. It was an automated IVR (Interactive Voice Response) Poll. The lead changed again in a race that appears to be very, very close. Romney leads by just 1.4% on the eve of the election. The big change in tonight s polling seems to be an increase in support among women voters where Romney now leads by 5%. Depending on the turnout, the race could go either way, Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said. Romney has retaken the lead with Republicans and he improved with voters in the Grand Rapids media market, a natural power base for Santorum because of the high number of Evangelical Christians. That improvement in Grand Rapids area can be seen in Romney s increase in support among Evangelicals, John Garst of Rosetta Stone Communications said. Since last night, Romney improved 1% with Tea Party supporters and widened his lead with Tea Party opponents by 11%; Romney cut Santorum s lead among Evangelicals from 19% to 12%; But, Santorum increased his lead among those who say they are very conservative from 17% to 20%. Overall, however, Romney seems to have stopped the serious erosion that we saw in our poll last night among the key fiscal and social conservative constituencies, Mitchell continued. The polling shows that eight in ten voters are self-identified Republicans (81%), up slightly from Thursday night. 1
2 Romney has a 23% lead (46%-22%) with absentee voters but is trailing with Election Day voters by 6%. Santorum has to do really well tomorrow to overcome the big lead Romney has accumulated with early voters, Garst said. 2 The following is a comparison between the February 12 th, 20 th, 23 rd,26 th and 27 th polls: Democrats 2/ Democrats 2/ Democrats 2/ Democrats 2/ Democrats 2/ Independents 2/ Independents 2/ Independents 2/ Independents 2/ Independents 2/ Republicans 2/ Republicans 2/ Republicans 2/ Republicans 2/ Republicans 2/ Males 2/ Males 2/ Males 2/ Males 2/ Males 2/ Females 2/ Females 2/ Females 2/ Females 2/ Females 2/
3 Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Yrs Old 2/ Detroit 2/ Detroit 2/ Detroit 2/ Detroit 2/ Detroit 2/ Grand Rapids 2/ Grand Rapids 2/ Grand Rapids 2/ Grand Rapids 2/ Grand Rapids 2/ Other Areas in MI 2/ Other Areas in MI 2/ Other Areas in MI 2/
4 4 Tea Party Supporters 2/ Tea Party Supporters 2/ Tea Party Supporters 2/ Tea Party Supporters 2/ Tea Party Supporters 2/ Tea Party Opponents 2/ Tea Party Opponents 2/ Tea Party Opponents 2/ Tea Party Opponents 2/ Tea Party Opponents 2/ Conservatives (very) 2/ Conservatives (very) 2/ Conservatives (very) 2/ Conservatives (very) 2/ Conservatives (very) 2/ Conservatives 2/ Conservatives 2/ Conservatives 2/ Conservatives 2/ Conservatives 2/ Liberals 2/ Liberals 2/ Liberals 2/ Liberals 2/ Liberals 2/
5 Evangelicals 2/ Evangelicals 2/ Evangelicals 2/ Evangelicals 2/ Evangelicals 2/ Non-Evangelicals 2/ Non-Evangelicals 2/ Non-Evangelicals 2/ Non-Evangelicals 2/ Non-Evangelicals 2/ In order to be surveyed, voters had to pass the following screen: In the upcoming February 28 th Presidential Primary you can either vote for a field of Republicans or you can vote in the Democratic Primary for Barack Obama. Whichever primary you vote in, you have to declare yourself to be a member of that party. The fact that you declare yourself to be a Republican or Democrat will be public information that anyone can get. The list of those who vote in the Democratic or Republican Primary will be made available to list vendors. Knowing this, are you definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting. Those who said they were definitely not voting were not surveyed. Only those saying they were voting in the Republican Primary were surveyed. (Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. has been the most accurate media pollster in every Presidential Primary and General Election in Michigan since In each of the last four Presidential General Elections the company s final polling has been almost identical to the actual results. The Mitchell USA Poll has also been dead-on accurate in the last two presidential elections.) 5 5
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SUMMARY REPORT MONROE COUNTY, OH OFFICIAL RESULTS PRIMARY ELECTION MARCH 6, 2012 RUN DATE:03/20/12 11:03 AM STATISTICS REPORT-EL45 PAGE 001
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