FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER"

Lisa Malone
5 years ago
Views:

Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

1 Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 19, 2012 OBAMA HITS 50% IN WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA; COLORADO IS CLOSE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/NEW YORK TIMES/CBS NEWS SWING STATE POLL FINDS --- COLORADO: Obama 48 Romney 47, compared to Romney August 8 VIRGINIA: Obama 50 Romney 46, compared to Obama percent August 8 WISCONSIN: Obama 51 Romney 45, compared to Obama percent August 23 President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters in Wisconsin and Virginia and catches Gov. Mitt Romney in a too-close-to call race in Colorado, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today. Voters in these three critical states see the candidates as about even handling the economy, while President Obama is seen as better able to handle health care, Medicare and an international crisis. Voters in each state say the president cares about their needs and problems while Romney doesn t care. The Obama-Romney matchup in each of these states shows: Colorado: Obama at 48 percent to Romney s 47 percent, too close to call, but a reverse of Romney s percent lead August 8; Virginia: Obama at 50 percent to Romney s 46 percent, compared to Obama s percent lead August 8 Wisconsin: Obama edges Romney percent, compared to Obama at percent August 23 after Romney selected Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate. Voters say Obama would do a better job handling an international crisis, percent in Colorado, percent in Virginia and percent in Wisconsin. All the bounces seem to be over as the candidates buckle down for a seven-week downto-the-wire race to the finish. The races are close, but Gov. Mitt Romney is losing ground to President Barack Obama in Colorado and Wisconsin and still trailing in Virginia, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. (For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey, click on -more-

2 Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/September 19, 2012 page 2 Voters say Obama cares about their needs and problems, while Romney does not: Colorado: Obama cares percent while Romney doesn t care percent; Virginia: Obama cares percent while Romney doesn t care percent; Wisconsin: Obama cares percent while Romney doesn t care percent. Voters in all three key states, by roughly double digits, say that the country is worse off now than it was four years ago, reflecting a Romney campaign theme, Brown added. In Wisconsin and Colorado, voters by the same margin say they and their families are worse off, also. But in Virginia, where the unemployment rate is under 6 percent and among the nation s lowest, voters are split down the middle on whether they are better or worse off during the Obama presidency. President Obama has an edge over Gov. Romney on who can best handle a variety of issues health care, Medicare, national security, and women s reproductive rights. But on the number one issue to voters, the economy, the two are pretty much tied in the three states. On the topical question, given events in the Middle East, of who can best handle an international crisis, the president enjoys double-digit leads. Colorado Obama leads percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back Romney by the same percent. Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. Six percent of voters for each candidate say they might change their mind in the next 48 days, but 73 percent of Obama voters say they strongly favor their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters. The economy is the most important election issue for 42 percent of Colorado voters, while 22 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 6 percent list national security. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Obama. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say percent. The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Colorado voters say percent and they personally are worse off, voters say percent. Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, rather than community and shared responsibility, voters say percent. Colorado voters approve percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing. -more- 2

3 Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/September 19, 2012 page 3 Colorado is emblematic of Mitt Romney s problems with Hispanic voters. George Bush got almost 40 percent of Hispanics in 2004 and won the election, while John McCain received little more than 30 percent in 2008 and lost, Brown said. Colorado is typical of what is happening in states with large Hispanic populations: Romney is at 31 percent, about where McCain was, and that is an ominous sign for the GOP. Virginia Virginia women likely voters back Obama percent. Romney wins among men percent. Independent voters go with Romney percent. Among Obama backers, 9 percent say they might change their mind, compared to 7 percent of Romney voters. Again, 71 percent of Obama voters say they strongly favor their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters. The economy is the most important election issue for 50 percent of Virginia voters, while 20 percent name health care; 8 percent cite the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security. Obama would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Romney. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say percent. The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Virginia voters say percent. They personally are worse off, 29 percent of voters say, as 27 percent say they are better off. Government should encourage community and shared responsibility, 48 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility. In Virginia s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen percent. Independent voters split percent. Virginia voters approve percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing. Racial polarization in the presidential election nationally is on display in Virginia where blacks back the president 93 5 percent and whites go for Romney percent, Brown said. Looking at the subgroup of evangelical Christians who share similar religious beliefs, the president leads 93 6 percent among black evangelicals, while Romney leads among white evangelicals percent. -more- 3

4 Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/September 19, 2012 page 4 Wisconsin Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama percent. Romney gets 49 percent of men to Obama s 47 percent. Independent voters back Romney percent. Only 7 percent of Obama voters and 6 percent of Romney voters say they might change their mind. The president s support seems stronger as 74 percent of his voters say they strongly favor him, compared to 56 percent of Romney voters. The economy is the most important election issue for 45 percent of Wisconsin voters, while 23 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 4 percent list national security. The president would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 46 percent pick Romney. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say percent. The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Wisconsin voters say percent. They personally are worse off, voters say percent. Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, 47 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage community and shared responsibility. Wisconsin s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat as Democrat Tammy Baldwin is tied with Republican Tommy Thompson, percent, compared to a percent Thompson lead August 23. Independent voters back Thompson percent. Wisconsin voters approve percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing. Wisconsin s U.S. Senate race appears to be a dead heat, with Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who would be the nation s first openly gay senator, pulling into a deadlock with former Gov. Tommy Thompson, said Brown. And Gov. Scott Walker remains in solid shape with Badger state voters, holding a percent job approval, not bad for a guy who faced the prospect of being thrown out of office earlier this year. From September 11 17, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed: 1,497 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent; 1,474 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,485 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit or call (203)

5 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) Obama 48% 50% 51% Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 Mind made up 93% 92% 93% Might change DK/NA b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? OBAMA Q1... Mind made up 93% 91% 92% Might change DK/NA c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ROMNEY Q1... Mind made up 93% 92% 94% Might change DK/NA Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 46% 45% 45% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

6 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 49% 53% 52% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? OBAMA Q1... Strongly favor 73% 71% 74% Like/Reservations Dislike Romney DK/NA (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? ROMNEY Q1... Strongly favor 55% 55% 56% Like/Reservations Dislike Obama DK/NA a. (VA) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen or Kaine? (Table includes leaners) VIRGINIA... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Kaine 51% 5% 93% 46% 47% 55% 43% 86% Allen SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

7 6b. (WI) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Tommy Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) WISCONSIN... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Baldwin 47% 2% 91% 42% 43% 51% 45% Thompson SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way - John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/ Scott Walker(WI) - is handling his job as Governor? Approve 62% 54% 52% Disapprove DK/NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve 47% 49% 51% Disapprove DK/NA (CO & WI) Do you think you'll vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot or will you vote at an early voting location? (VA) Do you think you'll vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot? (na = not asked) Election day 29% 91% 87% Mail/Absentee Early voting location 9 na 5 DK/NA Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Favorable 44% 46% 47% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

8 11. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Favorable 40% 40% 42% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 40% 42% 36% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 38% 37% 43% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 63% 67% 63% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else? National security 6% 5% 4% The economy Health care The budget deficit Taxes Immigration Something else DK/NA

9 16. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More 40% 39% 39% Less About the same DK/NA Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 55% 59% 60% No DK/NA Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 45% 44% 43% No DK/NA How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to be an effective Commander-in- Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 35% 38% 36% Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to be an effective Commander-in- Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 24% 23% 23% Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA

10 21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 47% 49% 49% Romney DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 49% 52% 51% Romney DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 48% 51% 50% Romney DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 49% 52% 50% Romney DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 49% 50% 50% Romney DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama 57% 59% 55% Romney DK/NA

11 27. (Added Wednesday) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an international crisis, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?... WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY Obama 50% 53% 53% Romney DK/NA Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. A)Improving now 29% 31% 28% B)Will improve C)Will never improve ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) DK/NA If Barack Obama is re-elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? Favor the rich 9% 7% 10% Favor middle class Favor the poor Treat all the same DK/NA If Mitt Romney is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? Favor the rich 54% 55% 55% Favor middle class Favor the poor Treat all the same DK/NA Compared with four years ago, is the United States better off today, worse off today, or about the same? Better off 36% 35% 33% Worse off About the same DK/NA

12 32. Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse off today, or about the same? Better off 25% 27% 23% Worse off About the same DK/NA Which of these comes closer to your opinion, The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, or The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility. Self-reliance 49% 44% 47% Community BOTH (VOL) DK/NA In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? Support 63% 66% 65% Oppose DK/NA In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas on federally owned land? Support 69% 68% 68% Oppose DK/NA Did you watch any of the Republican National Convention? (IF YES, ASK:) Did what you see make you think better of Mitt Romney or worse of him? Yes/Better 34% 36% 33% Yes/Worse YES/NO DIFF(VOL) No/Didn't watch DK/NA

13 37. Did you watch any of the Democratic National Convention? (IF YES, ASK:) Did what you see make you think better of Barack Obama or worse of him? Yes/Better 35% 35% 35% Yes/Worse YES/NO DIFF(VOL) No/Didn't watch DK/NA How often do you think the Romney campaign presents information that is accurate; just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, or almost never? Just about always 9% 9% 8% Most of the time Some of the time Almost never DK/NA How often do you think the Obama campaign presents information that is accurate; just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, or almost never? Just about always 11% 11% 11% Most of the time Some of the time Almost never DK/NA Have you seen any commercials on television for - Mitt Romney, or not? Yes 93% 94% 85% No/Haven't seen DK/NA Have you seen any commercials on television for - Barack Obama, or not? Yes 93% 96% 86% No/Haven't seen DK/NA

Creating the Student Platform Fall 2008

Creating the Student Platform Fall 2008 Written by: Andrew J. McGinley & Jason E. Allen Scholarly Advisor: J. Michael Hogan, Ph.D Program Overview This curriculum is designed to provide you and your students