Risk, Governance and Society

Transcription

1 Risk, Governance and Society Volume 17 Editors Jeryl L. Mumpower; Texas A&M University, TAMU College Station, TX, USA Ortwin Renn, University of Stuttgart, Interdisciplinary ResearchUnitonRisk Governance and Sustainable Technology Development (ZIRN, Germany) For further volumes:

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3 Tom Ritchey Wicked Problems Social Messes Decision Support Modelling with Morphological Analysis

4 Tom Ritchey, Ph.D Ritchey Consulting AB Swedish Morphological Society Lyckselevägen Vällingby Sweden ISBN e-isbn DOI / Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: estudio Calamar S.L. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (

5 Contents 1 Introduction General Morphological Analysis (GMA) What s the Problem? Short History of Morphological Methods Morphological Modelling Example: Organisational Structure Conclusions Wicked Problems and Genuine Uncertainty Background The Etic vs. the Emic Genuine Uncertainty (GU) Ten Criteria for Wicked Problems Tackling Wicked Problems with General Morphological Analysis Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis Strengths, Limitations and Advanced Topics GMA s Strengths GMA s Limitations Use in Combination with Other Methods Advanced Topics Multi-Part Internal Evaluations AND-Lists Stakeholder or Position Analysis Time Lines Relational Database Applications Linking Morphological Fields v

6 vi Contents 6 On the Formal Properties of Morphological Models Introduction The Morphological Field The Cross-Consistency Matrix and Parameter Blocks Number of Cross-Consistency Pairs Three Ratios Connectivity Quotient (k) Connected vs. Unconnected Parameters The Consistency Quotient (x) The Solution Quotient (z) The Relationships Between the Three Ratios Facilitating GMA Workshops Four Necessary Requirements The Facilitation Thing Some Dos and Don ts for New Facilitators Facilitating WPs with GMA General Guidelines Concerning the GMA Process Presented to the Prospective Client Guidelines for Selecting the SMS (Subject Matter Specialist) Workshop Participants Facilitation Guidelines and Workshop Ground Rules GMA Case Studies Evaluating Preparedness for Chemical Accidents Resource Field Response Field Transport Disruption Scenario Laboratory The Governance of Scientific and Technological Development Anonymous Communication Over the Internet Nordic Energy Scenarios Electricity Grid Sabotage Scenarios Multi-Hazard Disaster Reduction Strategies Youth, Crime and Social Exclusion in Sweden Municipal Accident Strategies Model Market Evaluation Template for a Government Authority Modelling the Bioethics of Drug Redevelopment About Fritz Zwicky Glossary of Terms References and Further Reading