Population (30 June 2016): 29,101 people

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2 Population (30 June 2016): 29,101 people

3 Estimating temporary populations the power of aggregated mobile device data Andrew Howe, Tricia Chester Australian Coastal Councils Conference Redcliffe, 5 May 2017

4 Population estimates Official population measure ERP based on usual residence Is ERP relevant? regional populations vary monthly, weekly, daily, hourly numbers and characteristics (age/sex) vary ERP frequency and timeliness Temporary population estimates major data gap Solution? mobile device user data (aggregated & anonymised)

5 Pilot study hourly population estimates Trial engagement with telco company Australian Capital Region ACT and surrounds Geography: SA2s ACT suburbs, town centres NSW towns & regions Age (18+) and sex breakdown Hourly around the clock 18 April to 1 May 2016

6 Method Hourly location data builds as mobile device users connect Account for: multiple connections in hour no connection in past hour up to 24 hours previous Users weighted and projected to actual population, based on: SA2 of residence age (18+) sex

7 Method Hourly location data builds as mobile device users connect Account for: multiple connections in hour no connection in past hour up to 24 hours previous Users weighted and projected to actual population, based on: SA2 of residence age (18+) sex Weighted (anonymised) counts allocated to surrounding areas

8 Method Weighted & projected population, 12pm 10am 11am 1pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 6am 7am 8am 9am Lowest Highest

9 Validation Customer counts by hour, East Melbourne, March May 2016

10 Validation Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekdays 1 April 2016@1950 Collingwood v Richmond Crowd: 72, March 2016@1920 Richmond v Carlton Crowd: 75,706

11 Validation Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekends

12 April 2016 (Pilot study period) Mon Tues Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun School holidays Long weekend ANZAC day Normal working days Normal weekend

13 Australian Capital Region (Pilot study area) Batemans Bay Merimbula Tura Beach Eden

14 Pilot study data 520 Hourly Population Estimates, Australian Capital Region Mon 18 April - Sun 1 May 510 Population ('000) Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend

15 ACT v NSW surrounds ACT Population ('000) Hourly Population Estimates, ACT vs NSW surrounds Tuesday 19 April NSW Population ('000) am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm 190 ACT NSW surrounds

16 Weekday populations Belconnen Town Centre

17 Weekday populations Hourly Population Estimates, Belconnen Town Centre Mon 18 April Fri 22 April Population Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 ERP am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

18 Weekday populations Scullin

19 Weekday populations Scullin, Mon to Fri Belconnen Town Centre, Mon to Fri am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

20 Weekday populations Belconnen Region, 12 am Belconnen Region, 12 pm Scullin Belconnen Town Centre Bruce

21 Weekend populations Scullin, Monday - Sunday Belconnen, Monday - Sunday am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

22 Weekend populations Hourly Population Estimates, Batemans Bay Mon 18 April Sun 24 April Population Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/04 Sun 24/ am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

23 Event populations Bruce

24 Event populations - Bruce Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Mon 18 Sat 23 April 9000 Raiders v Tigers Population Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/ am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

25 Event populations - Bruce 5500 Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Sat 23 April, by Sex Population Males Females am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

26 Event populations - Bruce Population Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce Mon 18 Sun 24 April Groovin the Moo (15,000 attendees) Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 Sat 23/04 Sun 24/ am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm

27 Seachange area populations 55 Hourly Population Estimates, NSW Coast Mon 18 April Sun 1 May 50 Population ( 000) Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend

28 Seachange area populations Midday population, NSW Coast By age, peak v non-peak times Age Fri 29-Apr (non-peak) Sun 24-Apr (peak) Population ( 000)

29 Conclusion Very promising results from pilot study Estimates based on this anonymised and aggregated data look good demographically Could fill the temporary population data gap Uses for these hourly population estimates lots! Planning and service provision CBDs, mining regions, tourist destinations Disaster preparedness Funding models etc

30 Future directions Short term ABS Information paper, released in 2017 Peer review and promote internationally Long term Continuing discussions around future plans

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32 2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING

33 2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING

34 2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING From July 2017 CENSUS DATA SEMINARS Each capital city + regional locations Content: key census results & region-specific data data quality information census data products and training Data specialists available Selected seminars webcast live, recording available later Further info available soon registration essential!

35 2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING