Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows
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1 Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows September 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Implied International Capital Flows 1-3 Australia 4 Brazil 5 Canada 6 China 7 India 8 Indonesia 9 Japan 1 Korea 11 Russia 12 South Africa 13 Turkey 14 September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
3 2 Figure 1. Implied International Capital Flows WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 2 1 World Trade Surplus with US* (768.2) World (18.9) 1 Jun * US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. Source: International Monetary Fund. 2 Figure 2. WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Jun * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.). Source: International Monetary Fund. Page 1 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
4 Figure 3. IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Implied World Ex-US Capital Flows* Implied International Capital Flows JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) (-2.6) /8 Jun US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan Figure 4. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves* (-1.7) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) (-2.6) US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan. Page 2 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows 9/8 Jun www.
5 Figure 5. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World (yearly percent change) (.2) Implied International Capital Flows JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate (inverted scale) (-2.6) /8 Jun * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund and JP Morgan. Page 3 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
6 Australia 4 2 Figure 6. AUSTRALIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 7. AUSTRALIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 4 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
7 Brazil 11 Figure 8. BRAZIL: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 9. BRAZIL: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 5 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
8 6 4 Figure 1. Canada CANADA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 11. CANADA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 6 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
9 Figure 12. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. China Figure 13. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
10 2 Figure 14. India INDIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 15. INDIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 8 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
11 5 4 3 Figure 16. INDONESIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Indonesia Figure 17. INDONESIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 9 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
12 4 3 2 Figure 18. Japan JAPAN: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 19. JAPAN: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 1 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
13 1 8 6 Figure 2. Korea SOUTH KOREA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 21. SOUTH KOREA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*) Page 11 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
14 3 Figure 22. Russia RUSSIA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 23. RUSSIA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 12 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
15 15 1 Figure 24. South Africa SOUTH AFRICA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 25. SOUTH AFRICA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* Page 13 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
16 5 Figure 26. Turkey TURKEY: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Figure 27. TURKEY: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*) Page 14 / September 14, 217 / Global Economic Indicators: Implied International Capital Flows www.
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