Anna Independent School District. Demographic Report Fall Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
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1 Anna Independent School District Demographic Report Fall 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
2 Economic Conditions DFW Area (August 2017) 3.1% 107,300 new jobs National rate 1.5% Unemployment Rate 31,254 1,692 more starts than 2Q16 Job Growth U.S. 4.5% Texas 4.5% DFW MSA 3.9% Collin County 3.7% -0.1% Annual Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2
3 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q17 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,576 2,597 4,359 6,639 2 Prosper ISD 2,808 2,399 5,432 26,728 3 Denton ISD 1,948 1,948 2,585 20,648 4 Northwest ISD 2,005 1,691 1,664 23,656 5 Dallas ISD 1,800 1,496 2,091 6,593 6 Lewisville ISD 1,234 1,344 1,677 4,561 7 Little Elm ISD 1,137 1,057 1,532 3,646 8 Rockwall ISD ,948 8,190 9 Wylie ISD ,127 4, McKinney ISD ,495 6, Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD ,504 19, Keller ISD , Mansfield ISD , Crowley ISD ,052 9, Forney ISD ,501 13, Allen ISD ,109 1, Garland ISD , Midlothian ISD ,607 19, Coppell ISD Waxahachie ISD , Melissa ISD , Anna ISD ,845* 31 Crandall ISD ,887 * Based on additional research by TD Staff 3
4 New Housing Activity Starts Closings Anna ISD Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total Anna ISD has started 121 homes in 2Q17, a rise of nearly 78% over 2Q16, and is on pace to start more than 400 homes in 2017 The district is on pace to close more than 300 homes in 2017 New home inventory is at a high 9.4 month s supply due to surge in starts in
5 District Housing Overview Anna ISD has more than 500 lots available to build on Groundwork is underway on appx. 515 lots The district has nearly 6,850 planned future lots Active Subdivisions Future Subdivisions 5
6 Annual Closings Distribution 2Q17 Top 5 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Elementary Annual Closings VDL Future 1 WEST CROSSING BRYANT ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW ,772 3 OAK HOLLOW ESTATES RATTAN CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW LAKEVIEW ESTATES (ANNA) HARLOW TOTALS ,058 6
7 Vacant Developed Lots 2Q17 Top 5 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Elementary Closings VDL Future 1 AVERY POINTE BRYANT NORTHPOINTE CROSSING (BRYANT) BRYANT ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW ,772 4 LAKEVIEW ESTATES (ANNA) HARLOW CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW TOTALS ,832 7
8 Future Lots 2Q17 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision Elementary Annual Closings VDL Future 1 OAK RIDGE RATTAN 0 0 1,800 2 ANNA TOWN SQUARE HARLOW ,772 3 WEST CROSSING BRYANT VILLAGES OF HURRICANE CREEK RATTAN PECAN GROVE (ANNA) HARLOW CAMDEN PARC (ANNA) HARLOW NORTHPOINTE CROSSING (BRYANT) BRYANT AVERY POINTE BRYANT ANNA 55 HARLOW SWEETWATER CROSSING HARLOW TOTALS ,779 8
9 Housing Activity by Elementary Elementary Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Under Inventory Vacant Starts Starts Closings Closings Const. Dev. Lots Future BRYANT ,488 HARLOW ,903 RATTAN ,454 Grand Total ,845 9
10 Residential Activity Palladium Anna and Anna Town Square Palladium Anna 120 future MF units 86 tax-credit units 34 market rate units Awarded housing tax credit by State of Texas July 2016 Building construction to begin late 2017 Harlow Elementary Phase lots Creekside 106 lots Anna Town Square 650 acres 2,000 total lots 1,772 future lots 68 vacant developed lots 85 homes occupied 59 homes under construction Creekside (106 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting May 2018 Phase 7 (229 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting March 2018 Building appx homes per year Current student yield: 0.65 Harlow Elementary 10
11 Residential Activity West Crossing 11 West Crossing Phase 5 92 lots Phase 7 85 lots Phase lots 1,362 total lots 857 future lots 12 vacant developed lots 458 homes occupied 19 homes under construction Phase 5 (92 lots) delivered and homebuilding Built out Fall 2017 Phase 6 (108 lots) groundwork nearing completion Phase 7 (85 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting summer 2018 Building homes per year Current student yield: 0.59 Bryant Elementary
12 Residential Activity Avery Pointe Estates Avery Pointe Estates 555 total lots 284 future lots 247 vacant developed lots Phases 1, 2, 3 (271 lots) delivered and homebuilding Phase 4 (101 lots) groundwork underway 54 home starts to date in 2017 First closings currently underway, 1 current student Bryant Elementary Phase Lots 12
13 Residential Activity Lakeview Estates Lakeview Estates 168 total lots 71 future lots 35 vacant developed lots 14 homes occupied 36 homes under construction Phase 2 (71 lots) groundwork underway Current student yield: 0.42 Harlow Elementary Phase 2 69 Lots 13
14 Residential Activity North Pointe Crossing and Camden Parc North Pointe Crossing 820 total lots 402 future lots 266 homes occupied Phase 2 (152 lots) delivered and homebuilding Phase 3 (163 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting Spring 2018 Current student yield: 0.67 Bryant Elementary Phase Lots Phase lots Camden Parc 452 total lots 363 future lots 32 homes occupied 10 homes under construction 24 vacant developed lots Phases 2 (88 lots) groundwork underway Phases 3 (182 lots) and 4 (169 lots) in design phase Current student yield: 1.00 Harlow Elementary 14
15 Residential Activity Pecan Grove Phase lots Melissa ISD Pecan Grove 640 total lots 467 future lots 173 existing homes occupied Phase 2 (152 lots) groundwork underway, homes starting July 2018 Phase 3 (106 lots) groundwork starting end 2017, homes starting early 2019 Developer estimates building 120 homes per year Current student yield: 0.53 Harlow Elementary 15
16 Future Residential Activity Oak Ridge Oak Ridge 1,800 future lots 205 future townhomes 500 future multi-family units Developer is still in negotiations with the City of Anna Homes will start at $250K Rattan Elementary 16
17 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth % Growth Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2013/ , / , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % 2024/ , % 2025/ , % 2026/ , % 2027/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Anna ISD will reach more than 4,100 students by year growth = 2,213 students 2022/23 enrollment = 5, year growth = 5,664 students 2027/28 enrollment = 9,127 17
18 Ten Year Forecast By Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ELEMENTARY CAMPUS 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JOE K BRYANT ELEMENTARY ,052 1,149 1,237 1,302 1,343 1,403 HARLOW ELEMENTARY ,142 1,275 1,419 1,524 1,665 1,780 SUE EVELYN RATTAN ELEMENTARY ,027 1,093 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 1,751 1,873 2,058 2,307 2,583 2,943 3,257 3,561 3,794 4,035 4,276 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 5% 7% 10% 12% 12% 14% 11% 9% 7% 6% 6% ANNA MIDDLE SCHOOL ,025 1,137 1,225 1,429 1,602 1,890 2,112 2,331 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL ,025 1,137 1,225 1,429 1,602 1,890 2,112 2,331 Middle School Absolute Change Middle School Percent Change 7% 12% 9% 6% 11% 8% 17% 12% 18% 12% 10% ANNA HIGH SCHOOL ,102 1,209 1,354 1,506 1,575 1,764 1,946 2,164 2,518 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL ,102 1,209 1,354 1,506 1,575 1,764 1,946 2,164 2,518 High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change 11% 8% 11% 10% 12% 11% 5% 12% 10% 11% 16% SPECIAL PROGRAM CENTER DISTRICT TOTALS 3,463 3,754 4,125 4,543 5,076 5,676 6,263 6,929 7,632 8,313 9,127 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 7% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% Bryant Elementary and Harlow Elementary will have more than 1,000 students by 2022 Rattan Elementary will have more than 800 students by 2023 Anna Middle School will enroll more than 1,000 students by 2020 Anna High School will reach almost 1,000 students next year 18
19 Summary Collin County s unemployment rate is currently below 4%. Collin County will continue to see housing grow north due to the low unemployment rate and corporate relocations in Plano/Frisco. Anna ISD has started over 230 homes to date in Anna ISD added roughly 220 students this fall. AISD can expect an increase more than 2,200 students during the next 5 years. 2022/23 enrollment projection: 5,676. AISD is projected to enroll just over 9,100 students for the 2027/28 school year. 19
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