Driving Systemic Change in Education Susan Dawson March 7, 2017 Spread the Blueprint Message! Twitter.com/E3Alliance Facebook.com/E3Alliance
Central Texas High Senior Class 157 Students 2
Central Texas High Freshman Class 314 Students 3
Central Texas High Senior Class 157 Students??????????????? 120? Students
Overall, too few students Graduate high school Go to higher ed, and Get a post-secondary credential To meet the needs of our region in a globally competitive economy 5
Performance The Big Disconnect Global Economy Other Nations Competitive Gap US Education Needs Gap 2017 Time
E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas Mission E 3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity E3 serves as the Central Texas regional P-16 Council 7
The Demographics of Change 8
Pop Quiz: Population Changes The Central Texas English Language Learner (ELL) student population is growing at about the rate of the overall student population in Texas. A: the same B: twice C: 4 times D: a gazillion times
Answer Dramatic is Increases C: ELLs are in Student Growing Population More Than 4x the from Rate 2006 of all to 2016 Texas Students Texas 17% Central Texas 32% CT Low Income 38% CT Hispanic 56% CT Asian 83% CT ELL 74% 0% 100% Population Growth From 2006 to 2016 10 Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS/TAPR data
% Increase in Poverty Since 2004 100% Number of Children in Central Texas in Poverty Increased by 50% In a Decade (% Increase Relative to 2004 Baseline) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 50% 20% 18% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Texas Central Texas Source: Kids Count Data Center, Central Texas: Bastrop, Blanco, Caldwell, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties 11
Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS data E2017 3 Alliance, E3 Alliance 2016 12
And District Income Distribution Last Year Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency TAPR data E2017 3 Alliance, E3 Alliance 2016 13
E3 Alliance Scope: Institutions of Higher Ed ~140,000 students in 8 institutions of higher education Public 2-year College Austin Community College District Public 4-year Universities Texas State University* The University of Texas at Austin Independent 4-year Universities Concordia University Huston-Tillotson University St. Edward s University Southwestern University Western Governors University-Texas *Includes both the San Marcos campus and the Round Rock Higher Education Center (Williamson County) 15
Education Trends and Outcomes 16
Less Than Half of Central Texas Students Ready to Succeed in School Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas, 2016-17 Not Ready 54% Ready 46% Source: E3 Alliance Analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data 17
Kindergartners With Pre-K Experience 3 Times as Likely to Be Ready for Kindergarten Odds of Kindergarten Readiness Based on Pre-K Enrollment Status, Central Texas 2010-11 to 2015-16 Had Pre-K Experienc 3.03 1 2 3 4 Odds of Kindergarten Readiness E3 Alliance analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data; odds ratios from logistic regression with Pre-K enrollment (Public & Private), income status and gender as predictors, Central Texas, 2010-11 to 2015-16 18
Percent of Students Proficient Grade 8 Math Passing Rate Achievement Gaps Consistent Over Time 100% Central Texas Grade 8 Math* STAAR Performance, Annual Phase-in Standard** 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Administration Year Asian Black Hispanic White Low Income * Note: Does not include Algebra I examination results. **Renamed to Approaches Grade Level starting in 2017 Source: Texas Education Agency: STAAR Results 19
Percent of Students Met Final Standard Passing Rate Achievement Gaps More Extreme Under Final Standard for Grade 8 Math 100% Central Texas Grade 8 Math* STAAR Performance, Final Recommended Standard** 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Administration Year Asian Black Hispanic White Low Income * Note: Does not include Algebra I examination results. **Renamed to Meets Grade Level starting in 2017 Source: Texas Education Agency: STAAR Results 20
Percent of Students Central Texas High School Graduation Rates Now Higher than Texas Overall 100% 4-year High School Graduation Rates, 2003 through 2015 90% 80% 81% 90% 88% 70% 60% 50% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Class of Central Texas Texas Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center 21
Percent of Low Income Students 100% Central Texas Low Income Graduation Rates Improving Faster than Other Regions 4-year High School Graduation Rates for Low Income Students Classes of 2003 Through 2015 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center Texas El Paso Rio Grande Valley Dallas San Antonio Houston Central Texas 22
Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs An estimate of the lifetime impact to Central Texas community of one class of drop outs is: A: The cost of a Super Bowl Ad B: Cost to respond to the South Sudanese refugee crisis C: The cost of McKinney ISD s 12,000 seat football stadium D: UT Athletics expense budget
The lost lifetime economic impact for one class of Central Texas dropouts is: Answer B is correct $370 million cost to respond to South Sudanese refugee crisis A Super Bowl ad costs $5 million McKinney ISD only spent a measly $70 million We could pay for UT athletics expenses for 2 1/2 years
Low Income Non-low Income One in Eight Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions, Central Texas Class of 2009 58% 63% 35% Enrolled within 1 year 28% 42% Persisted into 2nd year Completed within 6 Years 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent of High School Graduates Note: Excludes HS grads that did not enroll within one year of graduating from high school. Note: Completion defined as receiving a certificate, associate s degree, or bachelor s degree Source: E 3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center 25
Too Few Students are Getting the Credentials They Need to Succeed By 2020 >65% of all jobs will require education beyond high school, yet in Central Texas only 29% of high school grads get any postsecondary credential within 6 years of graduating 26
What s the Problem? Learning disconnected horizontally & vertically Great teachers are key but not well paid, incented, assigned, or staying in the field Accountability is here to stay, but complex, punitive, and creates unintended consequences Secondary model was created 100 years ago to meet the needs of an industrial economy Adult culture of learning is weak Communities don t understand the implications of demographic shifts Lots of great things happening but inconsistent, disconnected, competing 27
And What Can You Do About It? Use Your Influence and Your Voice! Twitter.com/E3Alliance Facebook.com/E3Alliance www.e3alliance.org Tutor or coach at a high needs middle school Support improved student attendance Provide work-based learning experiences Run for School Board! 29
The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas. 30