Texas Population Trends, Characteristics, &Projections Texas State University MPA Course San Marcos, TX September 12, 2016
Demography the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above. ~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991 2
The Population Research Institute, 2.1 Kids: Stable Population http://youtu.be/zbs6f-jvvty 3
The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.
Meeting the Mission Data Portal, Publications, and Reports demographics.texas.gov Population Estimates and Projections Program demographics.texas.gov/data/tpepp/ Public Presentations demographics.texas.gov/presentations Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings Data Requests Custom Research Projects Annual Texas Demography Conference and Applied Demography Conference 5
Demographic Overview Texas is experiencing significant growth. Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth is not geographically evenly distributed. Growth is not racially/ethnically evenly distributed. Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population. The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging. The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for the future Texas economy. 6
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950 2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 5
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and 2015 2000 2010 Hispanic, 32% NH Other, NH Black, 1% 11% NH Asian, 3% NH White, 53% Hispanic, 38% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 4% NH Black, 12% NH White, 45% Hispanic, 39% 2015 NH Black, 12% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 5% NH White, 43% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates 11
Population Projections, Texas, 2010 2050 Millions 55 50 45 40 35 30 Projected Population in Texas, 2010 to 2050 Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration Millions 24 20 16 12 Projected Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050 8 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other 25 4 20 0 Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2014 Projections 9
A Profile of International Migrants in Texas 10 10
Immigrants have been an important source of population growth in the U.S. Migration can alter a population s age structure. Young adults ages 20 34 years most likely to move in a given year. Migration can also alter a population s race/ethnic composition. Historically, Texas immigrants have been more homogeneous compared to other states. More recently, Texas has increasingly been a destination for immigrants of more diverse backgrounds. These trends, if they persist, would yield a more diverse population in Texas. 11
Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the U.S., 1820 2012 12
Percent of Non Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 10 Immigrant States, 2007 2011 Virginia 13.9% 17.3% 43.7% 25.1% Arizona 44.6% 30.0% 8.2% 17.1% Washington 17.4% 56.1% 12.2% 14.3% Massachusetts 23.3% 49.3% 17.1% 10.3% New Jersey 36.0% 46.4% 10.3% 7.4% Illinois 24.6% 50.9% 15.8% 8.7% Florida 60.7% 16.0% 12.0% 11.3% New York 30.9% 41.3% 17.6% 10.2% Texas 56.1% 28.3% 7.6% 8.0% California 30.2% 53.6% 10.0% 6.2% Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other 13
Annual Shares of Recent Non Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005 2013 14
Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force 15
Employment Status of the Labor Force by Educational Attainment, Texas 100% Percent employed 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% Bachelor's Degree and Above Some College/ Associate Degree High School or Equivalent Less than High School 88% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data 16
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Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011 Level of Educational Attainment Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking High school diploma or equivalency or greater 81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA and MS) Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One year Sample, 2011. 18
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older with a high school degree or higher, Texas, 2006 2011 81.5% 81.0% 80.7% 81.1% 80.5% 80.0% 79.5% 79.0% 78.5% 78.6% 79.1% 79.6% 79.9% 78.0% 77.5% 77.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 19
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25 64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% White Black Hispanic Other 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001 2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 29.9% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 18.1% 23.8% 24.0% 20.1% 2030 Constant 2011 % 18.7% 9.8% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1 Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 21
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 35.0% 31.3% 34.3% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.4% 23.8% 20.4% 2030 Trended (2001 2011 Trend) 22.1% 20.1% 11.8% 9.8% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1 Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 22
America's Electoral Future: How changing demographics could impact future presidential elections, 2016 to 2032 23
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Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 936 3542 Email: Lila.Valencia@UTSA.edu Internet: demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography 25