Change and continuity in Indian politics and party system: revisiting the results of 2014 Indian general election Article (Accepted Version) Diwakar, Rekha (2016) Change and continuity in Indian politics and party system: revisiting the results of 2014 Indian general election. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics. ISSN 2057-8911 This version is available from Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/65266/ This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies and may differ from the published version or from the version of record. If you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher s version. Please see the URL above for details on accessing the published version. Copyright and reuse: Sussex Research Online is a digital repository of the research output of the University. Copyright and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable, the material made available in SRO has been checked for eligibility before being made available. Copies of full text items generally can be reproduced, displayed or performed and given to third parties in any format or medium for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk
ONLINE APPENDIX / DATA Table A.1 Key statistics Indian general elections (Lok Sabha) Election year Number of electoral districts Number of candidates Electorate (millions) Turnout Number of recognised parties 1951 489 1864 173.2 47.0 16 1957 494 1591 193.6 47.0 16 1962 494 1985 216.3 49.0 16 1967 520 2369 249.0 49.0 21 1971 518 2784 274.0 49.0 25 1977 542 2439 321.1 49.0 23 1980 542 4620 355.6 51.0 25 1984 542 5481 399.8 51.0 26 1989 543 6160 498.9 48.0 28 1991 543 8699 514.1 53.0 36 1996 543 13952 592.6 54.0 38 1998 543 4693 605.3 61.8 42 1999 543 4648 619.6 59.9 47 2004 543 5435 671.5 58.1 57 2009 543 8070 716.9 58.2 41 2014 543 8251 834.1 66.4 45 Note: Elections to Lok Sabha are normally held every five years, and the number of seats allotted to each state is fixed according to its population. Source: Election Commission of India election statistics. 1
Table A.2 Detailed 2014 general election results Alliance/Party Votes % Seats Votes change Seat Change National Democratic Alliance (NDA ) 39.0% 336 +12.0% +195 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 31.0% 282 +12.2% +166 Shivsena (SS) 1.9% 18 +0.2% +7 Telugu Desam (TDP) 2.5% 16 +1.0% +10 Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) 0.4% 6-0.1% +6 Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 0.7% 4-0.3% +0 All Other 2.5% 10-1.1% +6 United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 23.4% 59-9.8% -175 Indian National Congress 19.3% 44-9.3% -162 Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 1.6% 6-0.4% -3 Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 1.3% 4 +0.0% +0 Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 0.2% 2-0.0% +0 Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 0.3% 2-0.1% +0 All Other 0.7% 1-0.0% -10 Other parties and independents 37.6% 148-2.2% -20 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) 3.3% 37 +1.5% +28 All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 3.8% 34 +0.4% +15 Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 1.7% 20 +0.3% +6 Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) 1.2% 11 +0.6% +9 Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) 3.2% 9-2.1% -7 Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRC) 2.5% 9 +2.5% +9 Samajwadi Party (SP) 3.4% 5 +0.0% -18 Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 2.0% 4 +2.0% +4 All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) 0.4% 3-0.1% +2 Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) 0.1% 3 +0.0% +3 Janata Dal (United) (JDU) 1.1% 2-0.5% -18 Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS) 0.7% 2-0.2% -1 Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 0.5% 2 +0.2% +2 Independents 3.0% 3-1.2% -8 All Other/NOTA* 10.7% 4-5.6% -46 Total Seats 543 Total Electorate 34,101,479 Total Votes 53,801,801 Number of Contesting Parties 464 Number of candidates 8251 Turnout % 66.4 * Note: In 2014, a new option for voters - NOTA (None of the Above) was introduced, and a total of 1.1% of votes were cast in category. Source: Election Commission of India election statistics, author s calculations. 2
Table A.3 BJP s seat and vote by state 2014 general election State Total seats BJP seats BJP seat BJP vote Uttar Pradesh 80 71 88.8% 42.6% Bihar 40 22 55.0% 29.9% Madhya Pradesh 29 27 93.1% 54.8% Rajasthan 25 25 100.0% 55.6% Jharkhand 14 12 85.7% 40.7% Chhattisgarh 11 10 90.9% 24.8% Haryana 10 7 70.0% 34.8% Delhi 7 7 100.0% 46.6% Uttarakhand 5 5 100.0% 55.9% Himachal Pradesh 4 4 100.0% 53.9% Punjab 13 2 15.4% 8.8% Jammu & Kashmir 6 3 50.0% 32.6% Chandigarh 1 1 100.0% 42.5% Maharashtra 48 23 47.9% 27.6% Gujarat 26 26 100.0% 60.1% Goa 2 2 100.0% 54.1% Dadra & Nagar Haveli 1 1 100.0% 49.8% Daman & Diu 1 1 100.0% 54.7% West Bengal 42 2 4.8% 17.0% Odisha 21 1 4.8% 21.9% Assam 14 7 50.0% 36.9% Andaman & Nicobar islands 1 1 100.0% 48.2% Andhra Pradesh 42 3 7.1% 8.5% Tamil Nadu 39 1 2.6% 5.6% Karnataka 28 17 60.7% 43.4% Kerala 20 0 0.0% 10.5% Lakshadweep 1 0 0.0% 0.4% Puducherry 1 0 0.0% 0.0% Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 50.0% 46.6% Manipur 2 0 0.0% 12.0% Meghalaya 2 0 0.0% 9.2% Tripura 2 0 0.0% 5.8% Sikkim 1 0 0.0% 2.4% Manipur 1 0 0.0% 0.0% Nagaland 1 0 0.0% 0.0% Total 543 282 51.9% 30.7% Source: Election Commission of India election statistics, author s calculations Commentary on Table A.3 BJP won all the seats in the states of Gujarat (26 with 60% vote ), Rajasthan (25 with a vote of 56% vote ), Delhi (7 with 47% vote ) and Uttarakhand (5 with 56% vote ). It won majority of seats in Madhya Pradesh (27 of 29 with 55% vote ), Bihar (22 of 40 with 30% vote ), Jharkhand (12 of 14 with 41% vote ), Chhattisgarh (10 of 11 with 25% vote ), and Haryana (7 of 10 with 35% vote ). It was BJP s performance in Uttar Pradesh (UP), which has the maximum number of seats that proved crucial in it achieving a majority in Lok Sabha; it won 71 of 80 seats in UP (based on 43% vote ), compared to just 10 in 2009. 1 In Punjab, AAP won 4 of the 13 seats in its first national election but failed to win seats elsewhere in the country. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shivsena alliance won 42 of the 48 seats, an increase of 21 over its 2009. 3
In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP won 3 of the 6 seats compared to zero in 2009, while the Congress-National Conference alliance failed to win any seat. In Bihar, BJP with its allies Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP), won 31 of the 40 seats, which was a gain of 19 seats from the 2009 election. JDU, which had left the NDA just before the 2014 election, suffered a major defeat winning just 2 seats, 18 lower than in the 2009 election. The BJP won a total of 21 seats in the southern states of Karnataka (17), Andhra Pradesh (3), and Tamil Nadu (1) compared to 19 seats it won in 2009 (all in Karnataka). 4
Table A.4 BJP s relative of seats of seats by state/region 2014 general election State/Region Number of seats BJP's vote BJP's seat Seat / Total % of total Total % of Total Total % of Total vote Bihar 40 7.4% 1.9% 6.1% 4.1% 7.8% 2.2 Haryana 10 1.8% 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 2.5% 1.8 Himachal Pradesh 4 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.4% 2.5 Madhya Pradesh 29 5.3% 2.9% 9.3% 5.0% 9.6% 1.7 Rajasthan 25 4.6% 2.7% 8.7% 4.6% 8.9% 1.7 Uttar Pradesh 80 14.7% 6.1% 20.0% 13.1% 25.2% 2.1 Chhattisgarh 11 2.0% 1.1% 3.5% 1.8% 3.5% 1.7 Jharkhand 14 2.6% 0.9% 3.0% 2.2% 4.3% 2.4 Uttarakhand 5 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.8% 2.1 Delhi 7 1.3% 0.7% 2.2% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9 Sub total Hindi Belt 225 41.4% 17.7% 57.6% 35.0% 67.4% 2.0 Jammu & Kashmir 6 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 2.7 Punjab 13 2.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.7 Chandigarh 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 5.4 Sub total North region 20 3.7% 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 2.1% 2.4 Goa 2 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 4.7 Gujarat 26 4.8% 2.7% 8.9% 4.8% 9.2% 1.8 Maharashtra 48 8.8% 2.4% 7.8% 4.2% 8.2% 1.8 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 12.8 Daman & Diu 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 22.0 Sub total West region 78 14.4% 5.2% 17.0% 9.8% 18.8% 1.9 Assam 14 2.6% 1.0% 3.2% 1.3% 2.5% 1.3 Odisha 21 3.9% 0.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2 West Bengal 42 7.7% 1.6% 5.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2 Andaman & Nicobar islands 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 11.3 Sub total East region 78 14.4% 3.4% 11.0% 2.0% 3.9% 0.60 Andhra Pradesh 42 7.7% 0.7% 2.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8 Karnataka 28 5.2% 2.4% 7.8% 3.1% 6.0% 1.3 Kerala 20 3.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Tamil Nadu 39 7.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5 Lakshadweep 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Puducherry 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - Sub total South region 131 24.1% 3.8% 12.5% 3.9% 7.4% 1.0 Arunachal Pradesh 2 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 3.7 Manipur 2 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Meghalaya 2 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Sikkim 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Tripura 2 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 Manipur 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - Nagaland 1 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - Sub total North East region 11 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6 Grand total 543 30.7% 51.9% 100.0% 1.7 Source: Election Commission of India election statistics, author s calculations. 5
Table A.5 BJP s performance and government formation in state assembly election results 2014-2016 State Number of Lok Sabha seats State assembly elections 2 (2014-2016) Vote Seat Lok Sabha election ( 2014) Vote Seat Change (State assembly versus Lok Sabha elections) Vote Seat BJP performance in state elections Haryana (October 10 2014) 33.2 52.2 34.8 70.0-1.6-17.8 Formed government Maharashtra 48 Formed a coalition 27.8 42.4 27.6 47.9 +0.2-5.5 (October 2014) government with Shiv Sena Jharkhand 14 Formed a coalition 31.3 45.7 40.7 85.7-9.4-40.0 (December 2014) government J & K 6 Formed a coalition 23.0 28.8 32.7 50.0-9.7-21.2 (December 2014) government with the PDP Delhi 7 (February 2015) 32.2 2.9 46.7 100.0-14.5-97.1 Lost to AAP Bihar 40 (October 2015) 24.4 21.8 29.9 55.0-5.5-33.2 Lost to a grand alliance Assam 14 (May 2016) 29.5 47.6 36.9 50.0-7.4-2.4 Formed government 3 Tamil Nadu 39 (May 2016) 2.8-5.6 2.6-2.8-2.6 West Bengal 42 Not in contention to form 10.2 1.0 17.0 4.8-6.8-3.8 (May 2016) government 4 Kerala 20 (May 2016) 10.5 0.7 10.5 - - 0.7 Source: Election Commission of India election statistics, author s calculations. 6
Table A.6 2015 Delhi state election results Party Vote % Number of seats AAP 54.3 67 BJP 32.2 3 Others 13.5 0 Total 100.0 70 Source: Election Commission of India data. Table A.7 2015 Bihar state election results Party Vote % Number of seats Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 18.4 80 Janata Dal (United) (JDU) 16.8 71 BJP 24.4 53 Others 40.4 39 Total 100.00 243 Source: Election Commission of India data. 1 The Congress just won two seats, while the SP, which currently leads the state government in UP, could only win 5 seats. The BSP, another important party in UP, drew a blank. 2 After 2014 general election. 3 For the first time. 4 Since politics in these states is dominated by regional and left parties. 7