TEXAS HIGHER EDUCATION COORDINATING BOARD 2010 Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education November, 2010 Division of Planning and Accountability
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Fred W. Heldenfels IV, CHAIR Austin Elaine Mendoza, VICE CHAIR San Antonio Joe B. Hinton, SECRETARY OF THE BOARD Crawford Eric Rohne, STUDENT MEMBER OF THE BOARD Corpus Christi Durga D. Agrawal Houston Dennis D. Golden Carthage Wallace L. Hall, Jr. Dallas Harold W. Hahn El Paso Lyn Bracewell Phillips Bastrop A. W. Whit Riter III Tyler Raymund A. Paredes, COMMISSIONER OF HIGHER EDUCATION Mission of the Coordinating Board The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board s mission is to work with the Legislature, Governor, governing boards, higher education institutions and other entities to help Texas meet the goals of the state s higher education plan, Closing the Gaps by 2015, and thereby provide the people of Texas the widest access to higher education of the highest quality in the most efficient manner. Philosophy of the Coordinating Board The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board will promote access to quality higher education across the state with the conviction that access without quality is mediocrity and that quality without access is unacceptable. The Board will be open, ethical, responsive, and committed to public service. The Board will approach its work with a sense of purpose and responsibility to the people of Texas and is committed to the best use of public monies. The Coordinating Board will engage in actions that add value to Texas and to higher education. The agency will avoid efforts that do not add value or that are duplicated by other entities. The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age or disability in employment or the provision of services.
Table of Contents Page Number Executive Summary... 1 Introduction... 5 Background... 5 Why Regional Planning is Important... 6 How the Regional Plan is Organized... 6 Closing the Gaps: Statewide Planning for Higher Education in Texas... 7 Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015... 9 Report on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies...11 Using Demographic and Educational Attainment Data to Understand Regional Needs...13 Population Estimates and Projections...13 Texas Educational Attainment...14 Tracking Student Flow and Student Participation and Success...16 Leaks in the Pipeline: The Seventh Grade Cohort...16 Higher Education Enrollment...18 Regional Closing the Gaps Participation Targets and Allocations...20 Higher Education Enrollment Within/Outside of Region...21 High School to College Data...23 Dual Credit Programs...24 Higher Education Persistence and Success...25 Transfer Success...28 Actions for Success: A Regional Perspective...29 The Texas Pathways Project...29 The Mechanical Engineering Transfer Compact...29 Tuning Oversight Council for Engineering...29 Regional Higher Education Roundtables...29 AVID Postsecondary Project...30 College Access Challenge Grant (CACG)...30 P-16 Regional Councils Institutes...30 College and Career Readiness Standards...30 Regional College Readiness Special Advisors...31 College and Career Readiness Initiative Faculty Collaboratives...31 Promoting Access and Success in Critical Allied Health Fields...31 Math, Science, and Technology Teacher Preparation (MSTTP) Academies...31 Family Practice Residency Program...32 Hospital-Based Nursing Education Grant Program...32 Promoting Student Success through Institutional Success...33 Facilities Planning...33 State Facilities Overview...33 i
Faculty Projections by Region...34 Institutional Success through Research...35 Barriers to Student Success...37 Students Receiving Pell Assistance by Region...39 Debt Load Study...40 Action Areas to Remove Barriers to Success...41 Higher Education Intensive and Bridging Programs...41 Statewide Developmental Education Plan...41 An Examination of Programs by Region...43 High Demand Certificate and Degree Programs...43 High-Demand Program Analysis...44 Low-Producing Programs...45 Five-Year Trend Analysis of Degrees Awarded...46 Critical Fields...46 Using Workforce and Occupational Data to Assess Regional Education Needs...48 Employment Projections...48 Meeting Regional Workforce Needs with Additional Baccalaureate Programs...49 Regional Planning Data Portal...50 How the Portal Data are Organized...50 Conclusion and Recommendations...51 Appendix Regional Summaries... A-1 Regional Pages: High Plains... A-3 Northwest... A-11 Metroplex... A-18 Upper East... A-26 Southeast... A-35 Gulf Coast... A-41 Central Texas... A-49 South Texas... A-56 West Texas... A-64 Upper Rio Grande... A-72 ii
List of Figures Page Number Figure 1 Population and Enrollments by Higher Education Region... 5 Figure 2 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual Change in Enrollment Since Fall 2000 at Public and Independent Institutions... 7 Figure 3 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual Bachelor s, Associate s, and Certificates Awarded by Public and Independent Institutions... 8 Figure 4 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual STEM BACs Awarded by Public Institutions, by Field... 8 Figure 5 Percent of Public Higher Education Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009...19 Figure 6 Dual Credit Courses Taken in Fall 2009 and 2009 High School Graduates: Percent of Total by Region...25 Figure 7 Graduation Rates of Fall 1999 FTUG Graduates...26 Figure 8 Percent of Fall 2003 FTIC Students who Transferred from a Two-Year to a Senior Institution by 2009...28 List of Tables Table 1 Regional Population Estimates and Projections 2000, 2009, 2015...13 Table 2 Texas Educational Attainment in 2000, by Region...14 Table 3 FY 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education, by Region...16 Table 4 FY 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education, by Region, African American and Hispanic Males...18 Table 5 Higher Education Enrollment by Ethnicity, All Institutions, Fall 2009...19 Table 6 Closing the Gaps Enrollment Allocations and Institutional Targets for Fall 2015, All Public Institutions, by Region...20 Table 7 Texas Public Higher Education Participation In- or Out-of-Region for Fall 2009 Public Universities and Two-Year Colleges...22 Table 8 Texas Public High School Graduates, FY 2000 and 2009 Percent Enrolling in Public Higher Education the Following Fall...23 Table 9 Percent of 2003 University Enrollees who Earned a Bachelor's Degree in Six years or Less...27 Table 10 Projected Faculty Needs Based on Institutional Closing the Gaps Enrollment Targets and Current Student to Faculty Ratios...35 Table 11 Achievement Relative to Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Standards of High School Graduates in 2007-2008 Who Enrolled in Higher Education in Fall 2008...38 Table 12 Undergraduate Students Receiving Pell Assistance, FY 2009 Four-Year Public Universities...39 Table 13 Students Receiving Pell Assistance, FY 2009 Two-Year Community Colleges...39 Table 14 First Time Entering Undergraduates, Fall 2003 Average Loan of Students who Did not Graduate and Were Not Found Enrolled in Fall 2009...40 Table 15 Summary of High-Demand Awards by Award Level...44 Table 16 Degrees and Certificates Awarded in All, STEM, and Nursing and Allied Health Fields, FY 2000 and 2009...46 iii
Executive Summary The coordination of planning efforts is vital to the success of the Closing the Gaps by 2015 plan for Texas higher education. A collaborative approach to aligning statewide planning activities with institutional and regional efforts will help ensure that stakeholders have the information, data, and tools necessary for integrating statewide and regional goals. Regional involvement can help Texas more efficiently and effectively achieve its vision to increase the participation and success of its students, achieve excellence in its higher education programs and institutions, and be a national leader in research. The Regional Plan for Higher Education promotes alignment between statewide goals and regional initiatives by emphasizing regional applications of: the state s Closing the Gaps by 2015 plan; the Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015 (Accelerated Plan); and the Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies (HECE). The Regional Plan embraces the Accelerated Plan recommendation to increase the accessibility of data and to use data strategically to instigate change. It also addresses the HECE recommendation to identify additional information required for decision making and policy analysis and make it available in a user friendly format. In response to these recommendations, a regional data portal is now available on the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board website which augments the Regional Plan. The data in the portal are organized by both higher education topic area and by each of the Board s 10 higher education regions. Much of the regional data and many of the recommendations highlighted in the Regional Plan focus on state-level planning priorities identified in the Accelerated Plan, including: improving African American male and Hispanic participation; supporting clearer pathways for student success, including success for African American and Hispanic students, students in STEM fields, and underprepared students; and fostering alignment between workforce and educational needs. Data/topics by region include: higher education institutions and regional facilities planning; demographic/population projections and educational attainment; 1
student flow including enrollment, seventh grade cohort data, and Closing the Gaps projections and targets; the high school to college transition; student persistence and success; analysis by program, including high demand, low producing, and critical field areas; and occupational data and workforce projections. Some regions of the state are growing rapidly, and the growth in student enrollments in these regions is outpacing population growth. While current opportunities for study at the certificate, associate s, bachelor s, and graduate levels are plentiful, effective and efficient means to meet current demand and accommodate future growth must be a priority. Other regions are more sparsely populated and growing less quickly. There are less extensive postsecondary opportunities in these regions, but most programs identified as high demand are offered. In addition, the growing number of distance education programs available statewide provides new options for satisfying student demand in lower growth regions. When population growth and projections are disaggregated by ethnicity, the need for heightened efforts to enroll and graduate more traditionally underrepresented students becomes clear. For example, even in regions predicted to have slow overall growth, substantial growth in the Hispanic population is predicted between now and 2015. Yet the state s Hispanic population has the lowest college-going rates among the large population groups. If the goals of Closing the Gaps are to be achieved, higher education institutions in all regions must attract and retain students from ethnic groups that have not enrolled and succeeded at high rates in the past. Students who are at risk of not succeeding in college because of economic challenges, academic under-preparation, and other factors are not equally distributed across the state. The Regional Plan provides comparisons of student populations by several factors to highlight differences in students backgrounds and progress. The differences in student preparation, participation, and success that occur within a higher education region also merit the attention of regional planners. Providing well-designed academic and support programs for at-risk students in all regions, and allocating resources in accordance with regional and institutional circumstances, will help accelerate progress towards Closing the Gaps. Ensuring ease of transfer for the many students, whether at-risk or not, who begin higher education in community colleges is also a critical issue with a regional component. The following recommendations are made in the Regional Plan based on an analysis of the regional data and consideration of state goals. As the Accelerated Plan strongly suggests, the Coordinating Board, higher education institutions, the K-12 community, business and community leaders, and other stakeholders must work together to make progress on those goals in which the state is falling behind. Regional needs must be evaluated when adopting Accelerated Plan strategies designed to increase the participation of Hispanics and African American males, improve the success rates of African American and Hispanic students, and improve the participation and success of students in STEM fields. 2
The fastest growing areas of the state (the Metroplex, Gulf Coast, South Texas, and Central Texas regions) must creatively meet increased student demand for education services through innovative use of facilities, hybrid classes and distance education opportunities, effective student advising and support practices, policies supporting ontime degree attainment, and efficient financial aid packaging. Regions should evaluate the needs of economically disadvantaged, first-generation, and/ or underprepared college students, and gather community, as well as institutional, resources to help these students prepare for, pay for, and succeed in college. To foster alignment between regional postsecondary education and workforce needs, planners must review workforce projections, higher education program availability, and high school-to-college readiness and success data as an integrated whole to ensure that workforce and student needs are identified and met. Staff from institutions with low-producing programs should review demand for those programs at nearby institutions to determine if collaboration or consolidation is feasible. The Coordinating Board should provide training for institutional, regional, and state-level policy makers on how to use regional data to evaluate regional needs and support student success. Outreach activities and grant awards related to Accelerated Plan recommendations should be balanced between community colleges and four-year institutions across the state, and regional collaborations should be encouraged for cost savings and to improve program effectiveness. Higher education institutions in a region must prioritize transfer success by providing aligned programs and clear pathways for both traditional and non-traditional students. P-16 Councils and Regional Advisors, with support from the Coordinating Board, should focus attention on persistence and success strategies. The Coordinating Board should coordinate a series of regional meetings to present institutional developmental education coordinators and leaders with regionally-focused data, including tools for using developmental education and other regional data for evaluating programs and anticipating future needs. Subsequent to the regional meetings focusing on developmental education data, faculty development sessions based on regional data and research about best practices should be scheduled to create regional learning community networks. The higher education sector should collaborate with workforce development councils, institutional and other researchers, and business and community leaders to identify research opportunities within a region; collaborative efforts that could attract research funding should also be identified. 3
Because each higher education institution in Texas has its own mission and goals and is responsible for meeting the needs of its students and broader community, coordinating state and institutional goals can be challenging. Regional planning can serve to bridge local planning efforts and state-level priorities by providing a scale that is neither so large that local considerations are lost nor so narrow that common goals are overlooked. Regional higher education planning is also important for reaching state and national economic and societal goals. When the colleges and universities in a region work together and collaborate with other key community partners to develop a coherent vision a vision that fosters growth, innovation, and the balanced use of resources they send a clear message to policy makers and others who can advance regional progress. 4
Introduction The coordination of planning efforts is vital to the success of the Closing the Gaps by 2015 plan for Texas higher education. Integrating statewide planning activities with institutional and regional efforts is a priority as the state enters the final five years of its comprehensive plan. Providing stakeholders with the information, data, and tools they need to incorporate statewide goals and actions into regional planning contexts is an important Coordinating Board function. Thinking regionally can help Texas achieve its vision of increased participation and success for the next generation of Texas students. This plan is part of a continuing effort to encourage and support regional approaches to higher education planning. It is designed to assist not only those who are directly involved with regional planning efforts, but all levels of planners and policymakers who might benefit from a regional perspective. By emphasizing regional applications of the state Closing the Gaps plan, the more recently adopted Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015 (Accelerated Plan), and the Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies, the Regional Plan promotes alignment between statewide goals and regional activities. To further facilitate planning efforts, a regional data web portal on the Texas Higher Education Data website now houses the Regional Plan and provides relevant higher education data. The portal allows stakeholders to target specific regions or topics for analysis. It also includes Tools for Using Data for Regional Planning Purposes designed to help users explore regional data and use those data to interpret the effectiveness and efficiency of institutional and regional Closing the Gaps strategies. Background Texas is divided into 10 higher education regions which vary considerably in size and population. Just as it is important to understand the similarities and differences among the Figure 1 Population and Enrollments by Higher Education Region High Plains Pop. 831,270 HE Enr. 70,359 Upper Rio Grande 791,982 49,063 West Texas 551,865 25,354 Northwest 557,043 28,446 Metroplex 6,776,843 326,367 Central Texas 2,780,728 254,177 South Texas 4,600,932 243,657 Gulf Coast 5,869,546 271,376 Upper East 1,102,416 56,462 Southeast 774,668 39,650 5
many types of higher education institutions in the state, it is also important to understand regional differences and commonalities. Figure 1 outlines and names each of the higher education regions and includes the overall population and higher education enrollments for each. The regional colors are consistent throughout the report and regional web portal to allow for easy identification. Why Regional Planning is Important Texas is a large and diverse state with over 140 public and private institutions that offer educational opportunities to its citizens. The Closing the Gaps plan for Texas higher education outlines participation, success, excellence, and research goals for the state and tracks institutional performance related to these areas. Coordinating Board members and staff work with legislators, institutional leaders, and a variety of other stakeholder to develop strategies that support those goals. However, individual institutions and systems have considerable responsibility for ensuring that the state s goals are prioritized on their campuses. And because each institution has its own mission and goals and must meet the needs of its students and broader community, coordinating state and institutional goals can be challenging. Regional planning can serve to bridge local planning efforts and state-level priorities by providing a scale that is neither so large that local considerations are lost nor so narrow that common goals are overlooked. Regional higher education planning is also important for reaching state and national economic goals. In its January 2009 Report, the Commission on Higher Education and Global Competitiveness stressed the importance of emphasizing regional as well as statewide solutions and recommended ways to reinforce the idea that institutions have a responsibility to promote the economic and societal well-being of the regions in which they are located. When the colleges and universities in a region work together and collaborate with other key community partners to develop a coherent vision a vision that fosters growth, innovation, and the balanced use of resources they send a clear message to policymakers and others who can advance regional progress. Finally, in every Texas higher education region, students are more likely to stay within their region of origin for higher education than enroll in another region. This fact alone is a strong argument for institutions and other stakeholders to think regionally when planning for higher education. How the Regional Plan is Organized The Regional Plan and the regional higher education data web portal are designed to work in conjunction. The plan presents information, analysis, and recommendations from a regional point of view, including a topic-area analysis across regions and a regional highlights section. Following a discussion of statewide planning that focuses on regional implications of the Closing the Gaps plan, the Accelerated Plan, and the recommendations in the Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies, the plan covers the following key topics that cross regional boundaries, but that can and should be considered from a regional scope: Using Demographic and Educational Attainment Data to Understand Regional Needs 6
Tracking Student Flow and Student Participation and Success Supporting Student Participation and Success (Actions for Success) Promoting Student Success through Institutional Success Overcoming Barriers to Success A Regional Look at Critical Fields, High Demand, and Low-Producing Programs Using Workforce and Occupational Data to Assess Regional Education Needs The regional portal section comes next and provides an overview of the online data. Throughout the Regional Plan, interactive links to the data in the Higher Education Regions Portal provide readers the option to access more extensive data, most of which are spreadsheet-based to allow users the capacity to manipulate the contents. The portal also includes a tools for regional planning section that has a data index and provides guidance and suggestions for using the data for effective research and planning. The regional highlights section that follows is an illustration of regional data analysis done in the context of Closing the Gaps goals. For each region, a few highlights from the regional data and recommendations for regional emphasis and are included. This section might be seen as a starting point for regional and institutional planners as they bring their own perspectives and unique regional understandings to the process of planning for the future. Closing the Gaps: Statewide Planning for Higher Education in Texas The Closing the Gaps plan has been the foundation of statewide planning and action in higher education since its adoption in October 2000. The goal of the plan is to close educational gaps within Texas and between Texas and other leading states by focusing on the critical areas of participation, success, excellence, and research. The Coordinating Board tracks statewide progress on the plan on a yearly basis and gauges both the success of current efforts and the potential value of future activities based on how those efforts have or will contribute to forwarding Closing the Gaps goals. Figure 2 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual Change in Enrollment Since Fall 2000 at Public and Independent Institutions Total target Total actual African American target African American actual Hispanic target Hispanic actual 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 7
Over the last 10 years, significant progress has been achieved on many of the key goals and contextual measures in the Closing the Gaps plan. A record enrollment increase of almost 122,000 students in fall 2009 helped the state surpass interim enrollment targets for several identified groups, including all students, whites, and African Americans. The participation level of Hispanic students has increased substantially but is below the Closing the Gaps target (see Figure 2). A key goal of the Closing the Gaps plan is to increase participation in higher education to 5.7 percent of the state s population by 2015. While white participation was 5.8 percent by 2009 and African American participation was 6.5 percent, only 4.4 percent of all Hispanics and 5.1 percent of African American males were enrolled in fall 2009. Figure 3 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual Bachelor's, Associate's, and Certificates Awarded by Public and Independent Institutions Hispanic target Hispanic actual African American target African American actual 2000 2005 2010 2015 Progress in degrees awarded has also kept pace with plan targets for many groups and award types. However, there are some critical areas that need attention. While overall success rates show a steady upward trend as do African American and Hispanic awards, awards for these two groups are still below target. Figure 4 Progress in some key Closing the Gaps areas, such as awards in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, is lagging significantly behind goals. After downward trends for four years from 2003 to 2007, 2008 and 2009 show a slight increase in total number of STEM awards at the bachelor s, associates, and certificate (BAC) level (see Figure 4). 30,00 0 25,00 0 20,00 0 15,00 0 10,00 0 5,000 Closing the Gaps Targets and Actual STEM BACs Awarded by Pu b lic In stitu tio n s, b y F ie ld 0 24,0 00 29,0 00 20 00 200 5 201 0 2015 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 En gineering Computer Science Ma th Physical Science Targ et 8
Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015 The Coordinating Board developed the Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015 in 2010 to identify avenues of action that would help the state accelerate its efforts to reach the critical Closing the Gaps goals for which the state is lagging. To address the very real concerns of African American male and Hispanic participation, Hispanic and African American success, and lack of progress in graduating students in STEM and other critical fields within the five years remaining in the Closing the Gaps plan, the Accelerated Plan advocates increased emphasis on student success. While enrollments for both current high school graduates and older students continue to grow, many students who enroll are not able to successfully advance to completion, earning neither a certificate nor a degree. Large numbers of students are underprepared or do not receive the financial and other support they need to be successful; many are not engaged in the work at hand. Texas is losing too many students in or after their first year of college. Finding ways to help these at-risk students persist can substantially increase both overall enrollments and success rates. With only 43.0 percent of all undergraduate students earning a degree or certificate in six years or less and 34.7 percent of students gaining a baccalaureate degree, this is critical. Recommendation: Regional needs must be evaluated when adopting Accelerated Plan strategies designed to increase the participation of Hispanics and African American males, improve the success rates of African American and Hispanic students, and improve the participation and success of students in STEM fields. Many of the strategies that emerged in the Accelerated Plan have strong potential for regional application. How to best apply those strategies will vary, in many cases, depending on the regional context. For example, opportunities for undergraduates to engage in applied learning experiences may vary from region to region depending on factors such as higher education enrollments and the number of slots available in each region. The strategies and approaches for the Coordinating Board and areas of suggested focus for key stakeholders from the Accelerated Plan that should be part of the regional planning process have been combined in the list below. They include: Improve participation of Hispanics and African American males and success of Hispanic and African American students, and accelerate the implementation of comprehensive student support systems in institutions with high Hispanic and African American enrollment. Improve the effectiveness of developmental education and explore best/promising practices in Adult Basic Education. Place a strong emphasis on community colleges. Advocate for and fund opportunities for undergraduates to engage in applied learning experiences. Disseminate and promote best/promising practices in teacher education. Heighten collaboration with workforce by supporting dialogue between institutions of higher education and the business community to foster alignment between postsecondary education and workforce needs as defined by state and regional economic development groups. 9
Engage institutions in collaboratively developing legislative recommendations and present a unified voice. Engage institutions in pursuing strategies that increase alignment among institutions and support Closing the Gaps goals (e.g., transfer agreements). Increase the impact of the accountability framework and the accessibility of data, and use data strategically to instigate change. This Regional Plan addresses many of the Accelerated Plan strategies and suggestions for action. The Plan and accompanying regional data portal are a means to increase the accessibility of data to a range of stakeholders and to help ensure that regional planning efforts, both on the part of the Coordinating Board and others, are supported by evidence. Institutions, policy makers, and other community supporters who are provided access to regional data are more likely to keep regional concerns and regional common goals in mind as they plan for the future of Texas higher education. Many of the goals of the Accelerated Plan are driven by data or, more precisely, by the story that data tell. When demographic and other student data are disaggregated by subgroups, and trends and projections are incorporated into the analysis, patterns emerge that provide a fuller picture of the educational progress that has been made and the challenges that are ahead. The Regional Plan adds another layer to the data by highlighting regional differences and similarities. To highlight the gaps in participation and success for African Americans and Hispanics that are prioritized in the Accelerated Plan, much of the data included in this report are disaggregated by ethnicity and gender. To support the critical need for improved developmental education and Adult Basic Education programs, data about student preparedness are discussed. Regional workforce data, which can augment the collaborations with higher education and the business community suggested in the Accelerated Plan, are presented with an emphasis on the growing fields where degrees are needed and the much less promising employment data of students who leave high school before earning a degree. Institutions are on the frontline of many of the efforts to close the gaps. If educational institutions do not change how they teach, prepare, and otherwise support students, then the significant increases in persistence and success needed to close the gaps will be difficult to achieve. Data can be an excellent way to determine if an institution is ahead of its peers or improving on previous performance. If a culture of evidence is developed, institutions can learn a great deal about what is successful and what is not. A willingness to share knowledge and resources related to successful programs with regional counterparts can help accelerate progress for all students in an area. For example, a professor with proven success in teaching STEM gateway courses might provide professional development for area professors and high school teachers. A four-year institution that has accomplished increases in its graduation rate over time may have advice for a local community college on keeping students engaged. The institution that admits and successfully prepares a high number of first-generation students might share ideas for reaching those students with a neighboring institution that has less experience with that population. Regional stakeholders should explore the possibilities for marketing at the regional level to promote the value of higher education, particularly to Hispanic students. Whether it be choosing an innovative local approach or brainstorming ways to bring regional resources to bear 10
on a statewide marketing campaign (such as the Generation Texas campaign), it can be both more effective and efficient to think regionally. Providing the data needed to understand the regional context is the first step toward change. The next step is to tie that data to action. Activities that have regional components or the potential for regional applications are discussed throughout this report. Report on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies Plans must be adaptable to environmental changes, and planners must be flexible in the face of those changes. This is especially true during challenging economic times. In response to an executive order issued by the Governor in the fall of 2009 and House Bill 4149 (81 st Texas Legislature) to review system-wide opportunities for cost efficiencies in higher education and develop recommendations for cost containment, the Coordinating Board convened an Advisory Committee on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies. This committee worked within the framework of the Closing the Gaps plan to put forward recommendations for providing education to the citizens of Texas in a more cost effective and efficient manner. The committee s work was incorporated into the Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies (HECE). To keep progress on track, the Accelerated Plan recommendations should be aligned with HECE recommendations to ensure that limited resources are well spent. In the cost efficiencies report, five big ideas are identified, all of which are applicable, in various degrees, to the Accelerated Plan and to regional planning efforts. Those ideas are: Funding Results Paying for Performance. Creating Clear Pathways for Successful Student Outcomes. Meeting Demand with New Approaches to Delivery. Making Capital Financing Make Sense For Both New Buildings and Deferred Maintenance. Making Productivity and Continuous Improvement a Cultural Change. The second and third of these ideas, creating clear pathways for successful student outcomes and meeting demand with new approaches to delivery, reaffirm the commitment to student completion that is evident throughout the Accelerated Plan. Both of these ideas should be priorities for any regional planning efforts. Student pathways to success do not generally begin and end at one institution of higher education. Through dual credit programs, transfer from two- to four-year institutions, swirling (concurrent or simultaneous enrollment at many institutions), attendance at higher education centers, and many other avenues, students often move among the educational institutions in a region. Students also take advantage of opportunities for non-traditional classroom experiences, such as service learning and online courses. Providing options and meeting demand with innovative solutions cannot just take place at the institutional level. Collaboration is vital if clearer student pathways and better student outcomes are the goals. The concept of making sense of capital financing also has regional applications. Decisions about the construction of new buildings should make sense not only in an institutional 11
context, but also in a regional context. The Regional Plan includes a section on facilities planning that provides background for regional discussions of facilities needs. Finally, prioritizing goals will be very important for institutions and regions in difficult economic times. For example, the message about the importance of a college education is reaching many young Texans and the state s higher education enrollments are higher than ever before. However, if Closing the Gaps goals are to be met by 2015, institutions must find ways to retain the students they work so diligently to enroll. While institutions compete with one another to enroll students, most Texas high school graduates choose to remain in the state and attend a public college or university. Diverting resources from admissions activities to student support activities may be a good use of resources at this time. Working on collaborative rather than competitive recruiting efforts might also free up more funds for the very important work of helping students progress toward and complete a degree. Recommendation: Outreach activities and grant awards related to Accelerated Plan recommendations should be balanced between community colleges and four-year institutions across the state, and regional collaborations should be encouraged for cost savings and to improve program effectiveness. 12
Using Demographic and Educational Attainment Data to Understand Regional Needs Texas is the second most populous state in the nation and one of the fastest growing. Most of that growth is occurring in the state s largest metropolitan areas, with other portions of the state growing at a slower pace. Regional planning for higher education, by necessity, must include analysis of population demographics to inform future demand for facilities and services. Population Estimates and Projections Table 1 shows population estimates and projections by Texas higher education region for 2000, 2009, and 2015. Growth is projected at almost 12 percent statewide from 2009 to 2015, with an 11 percent increase predicted for the 18 to 35 year old population the age group in which most college enrollees are found. The 0 to 17 population is projected to grow 7.9 percent from approximately 6.51 million to 7.03 million during that same time frame. Table 1 Region 2000 2009 2015 % Change 2009-2015 2000 2009 2015 % Change 2009-2015 High Plains 780,733 831,270 852,645 2.6% 205,169 233,039 237,904 2.1% Northwest 549,267 557,043 556,808 0.0% 133,891 148,351 147,158-0.8% Metroplex 5,487,477 6,776,843 7,882,976 16.3% 1,557,980 1,808,572 2,062,604 14.0% Upper East 1,015,648 1,102,416 1,162,656 5.5% 232,320 258,837 279,591 8.0% Southeast 740,952 774,668 796,098 2.8% 177,772 193,949 206,325 6.4% Gulf Coast 4,854,454 5,869,546 6,701,700 14.2% 1,333,149 1,613,798 1,829,660 13.4% Central Texas 2,309,972 2,780,728 3,131,677 12.6% 735,635 830,000 886,530 6.8% South Texas 3,884,115 4,600,932 5,083,463 10.5% 1,008,785 1,241,868 1,392,284 12.1% West Texas 524,884 551,865 566,921 2.7% 124,896 143,071 148,101 3.5% Upper Rio Grande 704,318 791,982 846,216 6.8% 186,093 229,922 245,801 6.9% Statewide 20,851,820 24,637,293 27,581,160 11.9% 5,695,690 6,701,407 7,435,958 11.0% Source: THECB and Institutional Data Regional Population Estimates and Projections 2000, 2009, 2015 All Ages Ages 18 through 35 The vast majority of the growth between 2009 and 2015 is predicted to occur in four of the 10 higher education regions. Overall, 94 percent of the total predicted growth is anticipated to occur in the Metroplex, Gulf Coast, Central Texas, and South Texas regions. While growth is projected for every ethnicity in these four regions, the Hispanic population will experience the highest increase. And while, in the slower growth regions, some ethnicities in the 18 to 35 age group are projected to decline, in all 10 regions of the state rapid growth in the 18 to 35 yearold Hispanic population is predicted. The web portal includes a table that shows changes in enrollment from 2000 to 2009 by ethnicity and region of residence (RP 2010: Res Enroll). The increase in the number and percentage of Hispanic students enrolled is notable for many regions. For example, Hispanic residents of the High Plains region showed a 76 percent increase in enrollment at two-year 13
institutions from 2000 to 2009. For Central Texas residents, Hispanic enrollment at universities more than doubled from 3,979 to 8,055 students. Regional population estimates by ethnicity available through the regional data portal are given for 2000, 2009, 2015, and 2020. Data comparing all regions are located at (RP 2010: Population) and population flow charts with regional highlights are included in each regional workbook. Texas Educational Attainment Educational attainment varies widely across the state. The Central Texas, Gulf Coast, and Metroplex regions led the state in educational attainment, according to the 2000 Census. Some other regions reported a relatively high percentage of the population with a high school credential, but with relatively low attainment levels for higher education credentials. This finding is supported by data from the seventh grade cohort. Table 2 summarizes educational attainment by region as reported by the Census. Table 2 Texas Educational Attainment in 2000 by Region Percent Associate's Degree or Percent Baccalaureate Degree or Higher Population 25 Percent H.S. Years and Diploma (or Region Over GED) or Higher Higher High Plains 607,037 75.0% 24.1% 18.8% Northwest 350,250 76.1% 21.4% 16.7% Metroplex 3,416,273 79.8% 33.4% 27.8% Upper East 665,553 75.1% 20.8% 15.3% Southeast 476,816 75.2% 18.4% 13.9% Gulf Coast 2,972,716 76.2% 31.1% 26.1% Central Texas 1,274,317 82.1% 35.2% 29.6% South Texas 2,304,306 68.0% 22.7% 17.8% West Texas 317,012 71.2% 21.3% 16.4% Upper Rio Grande 406,613 65.6% 21.7% 16.7% Statewide 12,790,893 75.7% 28.5% 23.2% Source: U.S. Census, 2000 Population U.S. Census Bureau data for 2006 that are available for individual states, but not for counties or regions, indicate that 78.7 percent of Texans age 25 and over had a high school diploma or higher degree, up from 75.7 percent in 2000. Texans with a bachelor s degree or higher were reported at 25.5 percent in 2006, about 2 percentage points lower than the national average. In California, 80.8 percent of residents had at least a high school diploma and 29.8 percent had a bachelor s degree or higher, according to 2006 figures. The Census Bureau also publishes American Community Survey (ACS) data about education attainment. Three-year estimates of educational attainment are included in the report 14
for 2006-2008. This ACS survey focuses on the most populous counties in a state; for Texas, 117 counties were included. The state-level data are disaggregated by gender and ethnicity and include several levels of educational attainment. The data show that, for example, of Hispanic Texans age 25 and over, only 10.7 percent had a bachelor s degree or higher and only 56.6 percent had earned at least a high school degree (including GEDs). These results are below statewide averages for other groups and reinforce the importance of the Accelerated Plan to increase Hispanic participation and success in higher education. For comparison purposes, statewide educational attainment data from other highly populated states is available through the data portal (RP 2010: Population). The Coordinating Board tabulated ACS data on educational attainment by higher education region and gender to provide detail for local and regional planning purposes. Because only 117 counties were included in the study, the total number of counties per region and the number of counties included in the study are noted. The data for degree attainment by gender show that males in Central Texas had the highest education attainment levels in the state, with 33.5 percent having a bachelor s degree or higher. Males in the Southeast region had the lowest with 15.3 percent. Gender differences were generally greater across regions than within regions. The high rates of educational attainment in Central Texas may correlate to the high degree completion rates at Central Texas universities and the many employment opportunities in the area that require a degree. 15
Tracking Student Flow and Student Participation and Success The Coordinating Board is committed to increasing student success in Texas. In the first portion of this section, secondary and post-secondary enrollment, persistence, and graduation data are presented from a regional perspective to highlight regional differences in student movement through the educational pipeline. Identifying both where the leaks in the pipeline occur, and in what areas students are successfully navigating through the system, are important components of regional planning. The second portion of this section provides an overview of Coordinating Board programs and activities designed to increase student success and for which there is a regional component or potential for regional application. Leaks in the Pipeline: The Seventh Grade Cohort Although the majority of Coordinating Board student flow analyses track students from high school graduation to and through higher education, the Coordinating Board has tracked three cohorts of seventh grade students through higher education to try to understand more about the pathways student take. In these analyses, students enrolled in the seventh grade at a Texas public school in FY 1992, 1995, and 1998 are tracked through important educational milestones: enrollment in ninth grade, graduation from high school, enrollment in higher education, and completion of a higher education degree or certificate. Each cohort is tracked for a total of 12 years. Table 3 FY 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education, by Region 1 H.S. Grad FY 2002-2004 2 Not H.S. Grad, Enrolled in Higher Ed 3 Higher Ed Degree or Certificate in Texas 3 Region Cohort Size FY 1998 Enrolled in 9th Grade FY 2000 H.S. Grad, Enrolled in Higher Ed High Plains 12,459 89.8% 71.8% 52.4% 3.8% 18.8% Northwest 8,607 88.6% 71.6% 52.3% 3.4% 21.9% Metroplex 73,527 84.1% 67.1% 50.6% 4.9% 18.0% Upper East 14,424 88.5% 70.7% 53.2% 4.0% 19.5% Southeast 10,883 87.5% 68.9% 48.6% 3.4% 17.1% Gulf Coast 70,471 85.5% 65.8% 51.8% 5.7% 18.8% Central Texas 30,058 86.2% 68.9% 51.7% 4.6% 19.8% South Texas 61,483 86.5% 67.5% 50.5% 3.9% 16.1% West Texas 9,314 86.7% 67.5% 42.4% 3.2% 15.4% Upper Rio Grande 12,145 85.5% 65.5% 53.1% 5.2% 13.5% Statewide 303,371 86.0% 67.6% 51.0% 4.6% 17.9% Source: THECB, TEA, and NSC (National Student Clearinghouse), 05/19/2010 Out-of-state graduate total not shown, because current NSC data collection extends only into 2006. 1 Students are reflected throughout the tracking process as a member of their original region (assigned in 1998), although they may have resided in more than one region. 2 It is not known how many students may have left Texas, or graduated from a private or home high school. 3 Education services provided near Mexico and/or other states may be affected by student movement outside of the region. 16
The statewide data for the 1998 cohort reveal that only 67.6 percent of the cohort s students graduated from a Texas public high school (see Table 3). Of the high school graduates, approximately three-quarters enrolled in higher education, but fewer than half of them completed a degree or certificate program by 2009. This means 12 years after entering seventh grade only 18 percent of the original cohort had completed a degree or certificate. Other statewide findings show that approximately 61 percent of the seventh graders who eventually entered higher education (89,230 of the 145,757 college enrollees) matriculated at public two-year colleges. Gaps in achievement by ethnicity and gender are also notable. Asian students graduated from high school and enrolled in higher education at the highest rates, with 37.7 percent completing a degree or certificate within twelve years of seventh grade enrollment. Of the other demographic groups followed, 25.3 percent of white students, 9.6 percent of African American students, and 10.3 percent of Hispanic students completed a degree or certificate. Males outnumbered females in the initial cohort with 51.5 percent, but females outnumbered males as high school graduates in seven of the 10 regions and outpaced males in all regions for degrees and awards completed, accounting for 58.6 percent. Regional differences emerge when studying the seventh grade cohort data. For example, the Metroplex region had the largest cohort of seventh graders and lost a higher percentage of students at eighth grade than any other region, yet its high school graduation rates were just slightly below the statewide level. While the Upper Rio Grande region had the lowest high school graduation rate, its enrollment rate into higher education was among the highest in the state. The high enrollment rate for the region did not translate into a higher rate of degree and certificate completion, however, as only 13 percent of students from the Upper Rio Grande region earned a degree or certificate by 2009. In the West Texas region, the high school graduation rate was about the state average but the percentage of students who enrolled in higher education was just 42.4 percent. This is one percentage point higher than 1995 cohort enrollment rates for West Texas seventh graders, but still far below the state average. Although the greatest discrepancy between higher education enrollment levels and completion rates is seen in the Upper Rio Grande Region, this finding highlights the fact that in all 10 regions there is a disconnect between enrollment and completion rates. While, as statewide trend data show, a higher percentage of high school graduates are enrolling in higher education, it is critical for regions to focus on how to provide students the support that they need to be successful, once enrolled. It is also worth emphasizing that the source of seventh grade cohort data is primarily Texas secondary and post-secondary institutions. Most students who attend and/or graduate from out-of-state institutions are not included in this analysis. Disaggregating seventh grade cohort data by gender and ethnicity can further inform regions about which students are least likely to navigate through the system successfully. For example, Table 4 shows data on African American and Hispanic male progress through the pipeline for the 1998 cohort. The completion rates for these groups were considerably lower than for the total cohort and for African American and Hispanic females. Additional regional data for the seventh grade cohort, including data by ethnicity and gender, are available via the regional portal at (RP 2010: HS to College). 17
Table 4 Region FY 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education, by Region African American and Hispanic Males Cohort Size FY 1998 Enrolled in 9th Grade FY 2000 H.S. Grad FY 2002-2004 H.S. Grad, Enrolled in Higher Ed Not H.S. Grad, Enrolled in Higher Ed Higher Ed Degree or Certificate in Texas African American Males High Plains 422 89.6% 63.7% 36.5% 2.8% 5.2% Northwest 295 85.4% 64.1% 38.3% 2.0% 7.1% Metroplex 6,647 78.7% 56.8% 38.8% 4.3% 6.2% Upper East 1,537 87.1% 65.8% 42.7% 3.0% 7.3% Southeast 1,565 87.3% 65.6% 38.4% 1.9% 6.1% Gulf Coast 7,358 83.4% 59.2% 41.2% 4.8% 7.0% Central Texas 2,387 83.3% 56.9% 39.8% 4.6% 6.7% South Texas 1,305 81.8% 59.5% 45.5% 6.0% 8.9% West Texas 237 86.1% 55.3% 26.6% 2.5% 5.1% Upper Rio Grande 168 76.2% 45.8% 38.1% 7.7% 3.6% Hispanic Males High Plains 2,408 88.2% 63.0% 33.0% 2.5% 6.7% Northwest 929 87.7% 64.6% 35.3% 3.1% 10.3% Metroplex 7,896 78.0% 50.7% 25.8% 3.3% 5.1% Upper East 598 85.8% 56.4% 28.4% 2.3% 6.5% Southeast 414 84.8% 54.6% 29.0% 4.1% 9.7% Gulf Coast 11,115 82.4% 52.4% 30.7% 4.5% 6.5% Central Texas 3,880 82.1% 54.5% 27.3% 3.3% 6.2% South Texas 22,257 85.7% 62.3% 41.5% 3.5% 9.4% West Texas 2,125 85.3% 59.2% 28.5% 2.1% 6.3% Upper Rio Grande 5,141 85.7% 61.6% 47.6% 5.4% 9.6% Source: TEA, THECB, and NSC Data Higher Education Enrollment The Closing the Gaps plan calls for postsecondary enrollments to increase by about 630,000 students between 2000 and 2015. Analyzing enrollment data in the context of demographic, environmental, and other factors is an important component of institutional, regional, and statewide efforts to achieve that goal. In fall 2009, Texas experienced the largest ever increase in higher education enrollments. Several factors, including the current fiscal climate, may be responsible for the increase; efforts to encourage recent enrollees to persist in their studies will be critical for maintaining recent gains. Table 5 summarizes fall 2009 enrollment by ethnicity at institutions in a region and highlights differences in the student populations across regions. As a percentage of statewide enrollment at public and independent higher education institutions, white enrollment accounted for 47.3 percent, African American enrollment 12.1 percent, and Hispanic enrollment 29 percent. The Metroplex region had the largest student enrollment, while West Texas had the 18
smallest. The largest percentage of African American students (23.0 percent) was in the Southeast region, but the largest overall number of African American students was enrolled in the Gulf Coast region. Comparable tables for enrollment by institution type are available at the web portal (RP 2010: Inst Enroll). These data indicate that the majority of Hispanic and African American students in Texas were enrolled at two-year colleges, but show significant variation across region by institution type. Table 5 Higher Education Enrollment by Ethnicity, All Institutions* Fall 2009 Percent African Percent Percent Region All White of All American of All Hispanic of All High Plains 70,359 47,542 67.6% 3,871 5.5% 13,921 19.8% Northwest 28,446 19,597 68.9% 2,547 9.0% 4,026 14.2% Metroplex 326,367 175,125 53.7% 49,052 15.0% 54,753 16.8% Upper East 56,462 37,653 66.7% 11,778 20.9% 5,009 8.9% Southeast 39,650 24,147 60.9% 9,131 23.0% 3,652 9.2% Gulf Coast 271,376 103,813 38.3% 54,197 20.0% 65,868 24.3% Central Texas 254,177 155,647 61.2% 21,300 8.4% 45,551 17.9% South Texas 243,657 62,528 25.7% 10,833 4.4% 154,763 63.5% West Texas 25,354 13,964 55.1% 1,475 5.8% 9,057 35.7% Upper Rio Grande 49,063 5,045 10.3% 1,390 2.8% 39,341 80.2% Statewide 1,364,911 645,061 47.3% 165,574 12.1% 395,941 29.0% *Excludes for-profit and career schools and Amberton University. Source: THECB and Institutional Data Increasing the participation rates of male undergraduate students in Texas is a potential means to accelerate progress toward Closing the Gaps participation goals; one that should not be overlooked. While the Accelerated Plan calls for an elevated focus on African American males, in all major ethnic categories male participation rates trail female rates. Figure 5 shows participation rates by gender and ethnicity for two- and four-year public institutions in Texas. The gap for African American students is of most concern, as male participation rates lagged female rates by 28 and 26 percentage points at two- and four-year institutions, respectively. Figure 5 Percent of Public Higher Education Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 54% 57% 46% 43% Male Female 63% 64% 37% 36% 58% 58% 42% 42% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic 19
The data for gender and ethnicity vary considerably by region. For example, males outnumber females in all of the large ethnic categories at the four-year institutions in the High Plains region. The High Plains also has a more gender-balanced community college population than most other regions. However, in the Gulf Coast, which has the highest African American enrollment in the state, two-thirds of the African Americans at community and technical colleges are female. Tables which disaggregate these data by region are available through the web portal (RP 2010: Inst Enroll). Accelerated Plan suggestions for improving minority male enrollment should be considered in regions with significant gender gaps. Local P-16 councils may wish to establish minority male task forces where warranted. Regional Closing the Gaps Participation Targets and Allocations The Closing the Gaps plan requires a continued commitment on the part of all Texas higher education institutions to strive to enroll and support students so that the state can achieve higher education enrollments that are on par with other states. Each public institution is asked to submit targets for closing the gaps for participation. The Coordinating Board has also developed enrollment allocations for these institutions based on population projections from the Texas State Data Center (TSDC) and enrollment patterns to meet statewide Closing the Gaps participation goals. Table 6 Closing the Gaps Enrollment Allocations and Institutional Targets for Fall 2015 All Public Institutions, by Region White African American Hispanic Region Allocation Target Allocation Target Allocation Target High Plains 44,645 50,344 2,897 4,131 23,813 17,880 Northwest 13,552 15,171 2,170 2,400 6,703 4,617 Metroplex 174,609 176,683 51,322 58,775 118,683 81,314 Upper East 35,087 38,938 7,636 9,267 8,874 5,449 Southeast 25,548 27,508 8,344 10,668 7,133 4,550 Gulf Coast 100,553 108,462 53,721 64,817 132,338 87,982 Central Texas 137,297 147,005 17,733 20,122 77,106 50,849 South Texas 38,508 61,869 6,708 10,970 209,078 173,562 West Texas 11,627 16,399 1,178 1,671 15,454 12,208 Upper Rio Grande 3,067 6,607 825 2,137 43,577 58,221 Statewide 584,492 648,986 152,534 184,958 642,760 496,632 Source: THECB and Institutional Data The 2015 public institutional targets and the Coordinating Board s allocations, tabulated by region, are shown in Table 6 for whites, African Americans, and Hispanics. Including other ethnicities, the statewide institutional target for 2015 for public institutions (1,472,710) falls about 18,000 students below the statewide allocation (1,490,999). Hispanic institutional targets fall far below Closing the Gaps allocations. In fact, for every region except the Upper Rio Grande, the allocation for Hispanics is higher than the institutional targets. In the Upper Rio Grande, fall 2009 enrollment of Hispanic students was only 4,236 below the allocation. The Upper East, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Central Texas targets for public institutions are the most below the state allocations, while the more western regions are more closely aligned. When the 2010 Census results become available, the Coordinating Board will rework the allocation. It is 20
unknown how new Census population figures will affect the TSDC projections, but they could change the allocations considerably. Higher Education Enrollment Within/Outside of Region In Texas, higher education institutions come in all shapes and sizes. The two flagship campuses, The University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M University, are located in the Central Texas region but attract students from around the state. The state s Top 10 Percent program, which guarantees admission to any public university to top performing students, has served to attract students from a broader base and encourages students to think beyond local options for higher education. As these two large research universities reach capacity, several emerging research institutions are intensifying their efforts to become major research universities and develop the top quality programs, faculty, and reputations that will attract the best students from around the state. Some four-year institutions, such as Texas State University - San Marcos, have robust undergraduate programs and enroll a large percentage of out-of-region students. Others, like Midwestern State University, which adopted a strong undergraduate liberal arts teaching focus, are creating a mission that is unique. Finally, there are many four-year institutions in Texas that primarily attract students from a more localized area. These regional institutions are an important part of the educational options available to students, particularly those who have begun their post-secondary work at community colleges and wish to pursue a baccalaureate degree in their home region due to work or family commitments. Regional planning for Texas higher education must incorporate an understanding of student movement within and across regions. Ensuring that there are viable opportunities for students with different needs and abilities in all regions is critical if Texas is to close the gaps. Table 7 on the following page illustrates student enrollments by region and type of institution. The percentage of students from a region attending in and out of their home region, the total number of students in a region, and the educational opportunities available regionally are important factors to consider in planning. For example, while two-thirds of students from the Northwest region attend universities outside that region, the Upper Rio Grande and High Plains regions have the fewest university students who leave. For community and technical colleges, students in the Southeast are most likely to attend in another region. To help regional planners better understand student flow within and across regions, the regional data portal includes a list of enrollments within that region by institution for each region. Both public and private institutions are included (RP 2010: Res Enroll). The portal also includes counts of students who enroll outside of their home region, by region, to show where students who leave the region enroll. These are sorted by frequency and show, for example, that for five of the Coordinating Board regions, the most common out-of-region destination for higher education is Central Texas. Central Texas students are most likely to go to the Metroplex region if they leave the area, as are students from the Upper East. Southeast students enroll out-of-region most frequently in the Gulf Coast region, and the majority of West Texas students who go out-of-region enroll in the High Plains. Overall, in every region, students are most likely to stay within their region of origin for higher education. 21
Table 7 Region In Region Number Percent of Total Total In Region Number Percent of Total Total In Region Number Percent of Total Total High Plains 12,058 2,960 19.7% 15,018 20,960 686 3.2% 21,646 33,018 3,646 9.9% 36,664 Northwest 3,030 5,715 65.4% 8,745 10,063 1,833 15.4% 11,896 13,093 7,548 36.6% 20,641 Metroplex 79,619 41,909 34.5% 121,528 161,164 13,950 8.0% 175,114 240,783 55,859 18.8% 296,642 Upper East 5,235 9,117 63.5% 14,352 30,155 1,376 4.4% 31,531 35,390 10,493 22.9% 45,883 Southeast 10,778 5,431 33.5% 16,209 11,851 3,079 20.6% 14,930 22,629 8,510 27.3% 31,139 Gulf Coast 70,912 55,642 44.0% 126,554 145,032 9,860 6.4% 154,892 215,944 65,502 23.3% 281,446 Central Texas 33,359 18,554 35.7% 51,913 66,915 3,815 5.4% 70,730 100,274 22,369 18.2% 122,643 South Texas 64,183 29,208 31.3% 93,391 135,639 4,482 3.2% 140,121 199,822 33,690 14.4% 233,512 West Texas 5,901 4,571 43.6% 10,472 13,559 1,274 8.6% 14,833 19,460 5,845 23.1% 25,305 Upper Rio Grande 18,401 3,040 14.2% 21,441 24,388 473 1.9% 24,861 42,789 3,513 7.6% 46,302 Total from Texas 303,476 176,147 36.7% 479,623 619,726 40,828 6.2% 660,554 923,202 216,975 19.0% 1,140,177 Total Outside Texas 0 52,603 100.0% 52,603 0 32,291 100.0% 32,291 0 84,894 100.0% 84,894 Total Enrollment 303,476 228,750 43.0% 532,226 619,726 73,119 10.6% 692,845 923,202 301,869 24.6% 1,225,071 Source: THECB and Institutional Data. Texas Public Higher Education Participation In- or Out-of-Region, Fall 2009 Universities Out of Region Two-year Institutions Out of Region Total Out of Region 22
High School to College Data High school students who enroll in higher education immediately after graduation tend to be more prepared for the rigors and challenges of college-level work than those students who enroll later. Encouraging high school students to pursue higher education, and ensuring that they have the skills and knowledge needed to be successful, are critical functions of the K- 12 educational system, but the larger community, including the higher education community, must also be involved. Exploring enrollment and success data for students coming directly from high school can help inform K-12 partners and other community groups about how the pipeline is functioning. Looking at the data regionally, as well as at the school district or county level, provides a broader picture of the overall health of the educational systems in a region. Table 8 provides a 2000 to 2009 summary of all high school graduates and illustrates the great variability of growth in this population across regions. Three regions (the High Plains, Southeast, and West Texas) show declining populations of high school graduates, while five regions show large increases. By order of largest to smallest percentage increase in the number of high school graduates since 2000, these five regions are: Metroplex, Gulf Coast, Central Texas, South Texas, and Upper Rio Grande. Planning activities must consider not only overall population projections, but projections for high school graduates. However, regional seventh grade cohort data and local information about factors like the level of private and home school enrollments should also be examined. Table 8 Texas Public High School Graduates, FY 2000 and 2009 Percent Enrolling in Public Higher Education the Following Fall High School Two-Year Graduates University Colleges Total Region 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 High Plains 9,311 8,943 20.6% 20.2% 23.9% 29.1% 44.4% 49.3% Northwest 6,424 6,657 22.9% 19.5% 18.6% 23.8% 41.5% 43.4% Metroplex 49,049 69,130 20.7% 20.4% 25.5% 30.0% 46.3% 50.3% Upper East 10,915 11,578 12.2% 11.1% 32.3% 37.8% 44.4% 48.9% Southeast 8,253 7,786 23.7% 24.3% 20.9% 26.2% 44.5% 50.6% Gulf Coast 47,905 62,905 25.6% 24.9% 25.7% 30.0% 51.3% 54.9% Central Texas 21,408 27,307 19.8% 22.1% 25.2% 27.3% 45.0% 49.3% South Texas 44,156 53,396 20.2% 22.8% 24.8% 30.4% 45.0% 53.2% West Texas 6,721 6,068 21.8% 22.5% 23.8% 28.2% 45.6% 50.7% Upper Rio Grande 8,783 10,505 22.9% 23.9% 18.9% 29.0% 41.8% 52.9% Statewide 212,925 264,275 21.4% 22.0% 24.9% 29.7% 46.4% 51.7% Source: THECB and Institutional Data Much information about the higher education pathways of Texas public high school students is available on the Texas Higher Education Data website and can be useful for regional planning purposes. With the introduction of the enhanced statewide longitudinal data system, information about student-in-class performance (such as the information found on student transcripts) will be available for analysis by region beginning in 2012. 23
In addition to the general enrollment percentages found in Table 8, the regional portal includes summary and institution-specific data grouped in three-year cohorts (2001-2003) that show high school graduates by the type of institution at which they enrolled and the number of students who enrolled and subsequently earned certificates, associate s degrees, and bachelor s degrees. The degree and award completion rates for students who did not start immediately are also provided, but students are only tracked for six years so this analysis may not present a full picture of students who delay entry. The percent of students who earned a bachelor s degree, by institution type and region, is included. It shows, for example, that 62 percent of high school graduates from the Central Texas region who started at a four-year institution earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less, a better rate than students from any other region. Students from the Upper Rio Grande were least likely to do so, with a graduation rate of 37 percent (RP 2010: HS to College). More detailed data in the portal show the institutions from which high school graduates in the region earned a certificate or degree. These data can be used in conjunction with the inand out-of-region data which show where students choose to attend by highlighting student success at these institutions. They are made available yearly to P-16 Council members to provide insight on long-term pipeline results. Student performance-in-college data (freshman year GPA), by school district, are available on the Coordinating Board website and might be useful in informing regional discussions about the effectiveness of the high school-to-college pipeline. http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/pdf/1874.pdf?cfid=5384492&cftoken=17502839 Dual Credit Programs Dual credit, the opportunity for high school students to earn both high school and college credit for completing college coursework, is a growing program that provides a concrete avenue for putting P-16 thinking into practice. Dual credit enrollments have grown substantially over the past 10 years, from approximately 12,000 in fall 1999 to over 91,000 in fall 2009. The Coordinating Board s Accelerated Plan calls for the K-12 community and higher education institutions to work in partnership to ensure consistent rigor across dual credit courses, provide access to high quality dual credit courses, and align dual credit courses with the high school curriculum. Since dual credit programs clearly cross institutional and system-level boundaries, stakeholders must work together, rather than in competition, to make sure student and institutional needs and standards are met. Participation in dual credit programs is not equal across regions. Figure 6 shows the percent of students taking dual credit by region for fall 2009 (with all 10 regions adding up to 100 percent). To provide some context, it also shows the percent of 2009 high school graduates by region. The data show, for example, that the South Texas region produced only 20.3 percent of the public high school graduates but produced 33.4 percent of the fall 2009 dual credit students. The high number of technical dual credit courses taken by students in South Texas may, in part, explain the region s higher than average dual credit enrollment rates. Note that in many of the less populated regions of the state, the dual credit participation percentages were higher than the regions percentage of the state s high school graduates, indicating high dual credit participation rates in these regions. 24
Figure 6: Dual Credit Students in Fall 2009 and 2009 High School Graduates: Percent of Total by Region Upper Rio Grande 2.6% 4.0% High Plains Dual: 5.4 % HS Grad: 3.4% West Texas 3.7% 2.3% Northwest 2.4% 2.5% Metroplex 14.2% 26.2% Central Texas 11.9% 10.3% South Texas 33.4% 20.3% Upper East 7.3% 4.4% Gulf Coast 16.6% 23.8% Southeast 2.6% 2.9% Source: TEA, THECB and Institutional Data Higher Education Persistence and Success Dual Credit Enrollment and Public HS Graduates Percent of Total by Region Region High Plains Northwest Metroplex Upper East Southeast Gulf Coast Central Texas South Texas West Texas % of Total Dual % 2009 HS Grads 5.4% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5% 14.2% 26.2% 7.3% 4.4% 2.6% 2.9% 16.6% 23.8% 11.9% 10.3% 33.4% 20.2% 3.7% 2.3% Upper Rio Grande 2.6% 4.0% Statewide Percent 100.0% 100.0% Statewide Count 91,303 264,275 Improving student persistence and success is the cornerstone of the Coordinating Board s Accelerated Plan. Analyzing persistence and success data by region is, therefore, a critical component of regional planning efforts. While some success data tracks students by region of residence, other data tracks them by region of enrollment. The success of students enrolled at regional institutions can inform decisions about what efforts need to be strengthened or reconsidered. Most of the measures shown here by region are also available by institution in the Texas Higher Education Accountability System under the success tab http://www.txhighereddata.org/interactive/accountability/. One-year persistence data, sorted by ethnicity, gender, and type of institution, are provided through the regional data portal (RP 2010: Success). Statewide, 86.6 percent of male and 89.8 percent of female first-time, full-time, degree-seeking students who entered in fall 2008 at universities were still enrolled after one year. The rates by ethnicity for this cohort ranged from 79.2 percent of African American males to 95.5 percent of Asian females. Not unexpectedly, students enrolled in the Central Texas region had the highest persistence rates for university students. For the comparable statewide first-time, full-time community college cohort, 64.5 percent of males and 68.5 percent of females persisted one year. Asian males and females had the highest persistence rates at community colleges. White males and Hispanic males had very similar persistence rates (65.8 and 65.0 percent, respectively), as did white females and 25
Hispanic females (69.5 and 69.3 percent, respectively). Community colleges are clearly doing a good job in closing the gaps between whites and Hispanics in terms of one-year persistence. For success measures, earlier cohorts must be studied. Of fall 2003 university first-time, full-time students, 55.9 percent earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less (see Table 9). The regional spread for this measure ranged from lows of 34.3 percent (Upper Rio Grande) and 36.4 percent (Gulf Coast) to highs of 80.5 percent (Central Texas) and 67.6 percent (High Plains). The Central Texas region, where the state s two flagship universities are located, had the most students in the university enrollee cohort (15,676 for 2003), and the highest graduation rates. Table 9 shows graduation rates for this cohort by ethnicity. These rates also vary considerably. An analysis of baccalaureate degree graduation rates for a fall 1999 cohort of higher education enrollees (Texas residents only) tracked through 2005 and 2009 is shown in Figure 7. The graphs plot the percentage of Hispanic, African American, and white males and females in the cohort who earned a bachelor s degree or higher within 6 or 10 years. Both full and parttime students were included. These graphs illustrate some variability in the success rates by gender and ethnicity over time. However, greater variability can be seen when the data are analyzed by region. Figure 7 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Graduation Rates* of Fall 1999 Full-Time Undergraduate Cohorts White female White male Afr Amer female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male 6-year 10-year 6-year 10-year Two-Year Insts. Universities *Baccalaureate or higher degree. Source: THECB and Institutional Data Tables showing comparisons of 6- and 10-year graduation rates by region for regional residents are available via the web portal in the 10 regional workbooks. They show that, for example, although white females had the highest graduation rates for all regions of residence except the Upper Rio Grande, white females from the West Texas region who began at community colleges were considerably behind those from the South Texas region in the 6-year analysis but were on par with them in the 10-year analysis. 26
Table 9 All White Afr Amer Hispanic Other Male Female % % % % % % % Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Cohort Earned Region Total Bacc. Total Bacc. Total Bacc. Total Bacc. Total Bacc. Total Bacc. Total Bacc. High Plains 5,128 67.6% 4,207 69.9% 132 53.8% 575 57.6% 214 57.0% 2,658 62.2% 2,470 73.4% Northwest 805 42.5% 584 46.6% 100 26.0% 72 33.3% 49 40.8% 384 35.7% 421 48.7% Metroplex 9,246 55.6% 6,138 57.3% 1,096 48.6% 983 49.5% 1,029 59.1% 4,158 51.1% 5,088 59.3% Upper East 425 47.1% 356 48.6% 32 28.1% 22 50.0% 15 46.7% 186 40.9% 239 51.9% Southeast 3,236 47.2% 2,186 51.2% 713 35.5% 233 47.6% 104 43.3% 1,261 40.9% 1,975 51.3% Gulf Coast 10,220 36.4% 2,651 53.6% 4,867 24.6% 1,500 34.1% 1,202 49.3% 4,770 32.6% 5,450 39.7% Central Texas 15,676 80.5% 11,171 82.5% 536 65.7% 2,237 73.2% 1,732 81.6% 7,110 76.2% 8,566 84.1% South Texas 9,049 43.1% 2,687 50.1% 348 32.5% 5,410 39.4% 604 51.2% 4,223 37.4% 4,826 48.0% West Texas 1,391 38.7% 883 43.9% 112 30.4% 372 29.0% 24 33.3% 634 33.9% 757 42.7% Upper Rio Grande 2,782 34.3% 311 37.0% 87 24.1% 2,058 34.1% 326 35.6% 1,374 29.1% 1,408 39.3% Statewide 57,958 55.9% 31,174 65.8% 8,023 32.5% 13,462 44.9% 5,299 61.2% 26,758 51.1% 31,200 60.1% Source: THECB and Institutional Data. Percent of Fall 2003 University Enrollees who Earned a Bachelor's Degree in Six Years or Less 27
The within-group differences for the 6-year to the 10-year results are also notable. They illustrate that, for example, Hispanic and African American males from the Metroplex region had more similar degree rates after 6 years than after 10 years, with Hispanic males being more likely to earn a degree between years 6 and 10 than their African American counterparts. For students from the Central Texas region who started at a university, Hispanic females and white males had similar degree rates at year 6, with white males pulling slightly ahead at year 10; African American females lessened the gap between their graduation rate and that of Hispanic females at the 10-year mark. Recommendation: P-16 Councils and Regional Advisors, with support from the Coordinating Board, should focus attention on persistence and success strategies. Transfer Success Creating effective transfer pathways for Texas undergraduates should be a priority in all regions, but particularly in areas with large community college populations. Statewide, the Central and West Texas regions have the highest percentage of first-time-in-college students who transfer within six years, with the Southeast and Upper Rio Grande showing the lowest percentages. However, while the Southeast had the lowest percentage of transfers in a fall 2003 cohort of first-time-in-college students who transferred by 2009 (see Figure 8), they also had the highest percentage of students who earned an award at the community college level. This could be related to employment opportunities requiring associate s degrees or certificates that are available in the region. Recommendation: Higher education institutions in a region must prioritize transfer success by providing aligned programs and clear pathways for both traditional and non-traditional students. Figure 8 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent of Fall 2003 FTIC Students who Transferred from a Two-Year to a Four-Year Institution by 2009 30% 33% 26% 31% 17% 27% 34% 28% 36% 21% 28% Source: THECB and Institutional Data 28
Actions for Success: A Regional Perspective Several current Coordinating Board initiatives are focused on improving student participation and success. Many have a regional component or focus. Programs with a regional component or the potential for regional application are listed below. All of these programs contribute to Accelerated Plan goals for Closing the Gaps by 2015. The Texas Pathways Project The Texas Pathways project is a partnership between secondary and post-secondary institutions designed to improve secondary to postsecondary transition through data-driven decisions. The Pathways projects do not encompass the large regional areas that comprise the Coordinating Board higher education regions; while they are local projects, each involves several school districts, community college campuses, and at least one four-year institution. The Mechanical Engineering Transfer Compact The Voluntary Mechanical Engineering Transfer Compact is a voluntary agreement among institutions of higher education within the state. Its purpose is to foster enhanced transfer processes for students pursuing a bachelor s degree in mechanical engineering, and to increase the number and preparedness of students matriculating from a two-year premechanical engineering program at community colleges into a baccalaureate mechanical engineering program at four-year universities. The intention of this transfer compact is not to change the curriculum of a four-year institution, but rather to provide guidance to students with respect to what courses offer the best mechanism for obtaining a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering degree. Tuning Oversight Council for Engineering The Tuning Oversight Council for Engineering is a voluntary advisory council that will assist the Board in integrating the Tuning process for course alignment work that was piloted through the efforts of the Voluntary Mechanical Engineering Transfer Curriculum Committee. The Tuning Oversight Council consists of four voluntary advisory committees: Electrical Engineering, Industrial Engineering, Civil Engineering, and Mechanical Engineering. The work of the Council and each respective committee is supported, in part, by grant funds from Lumina Foundation for Education. Regional Higher Education Roundtables The Coordinating Board is holding a series of seven regional meetings in 2010 with grant support from Lumina Foundation for Education. The purpose of the meetings is to provide relevant and timely higher education data to business, community, elected, and higher education leaders in order to build regional consensus for a student success agenda. The meetings are designed to build critical stakeholder support for new ways of delivering higher education at lower costs to students and taxpayers, increasing and rewarding completion, generating and reinvesting savings, and educating and training in affordable ways. 29
AVID Postsecondary Project The Coordinating Board has partnered with the Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID) Center to conduct a pilot project designed to improve student success in postsecondary education. The four-year AVID Postsecondary Pilot Program will incorporate many of the researched-based components that have made AVID successful in public schools across the country. College Access Challenge Grant (CACG) There are three primary allowable activities for CACG-funded programs: Information and outreach to students and their families, professional development, and need-based financial aid. Texas received $6.2 million in 2008 and in 2009 from the U.S. Department of Education, and will receive $11.8 million in 2010. Texas 2010 CACG proposed activities are as follows: Generation TX, the state s education campaign, will launch in El Paso, Houston, and the Dallas Metroplex markets; THECB will upgrade CollegeforAllTexans.com with additional online tools for college exploration, preparation, and financial literacy training; The Texas Education Agency (TEA) will provide college access training for high school counselors through their online professional development system; National College Advising Corps, working with the University of Texas System, will recruit and train advisors, preparing a statewide infrastructure to deploy the largest college advising corps in the nation in years 2011-2014; Returning Student/Adult Degree Completion program will target and recruit 44,595 students who left four-year Texas institutions with 100+ hours, and 178,248 who left two-year Texas institutions with 55+ semester credit hours, without earning a degree or certificate; Institutions will compete for Comprehensive Student Services sub-grants to provide services to students at risk of not completing college; and Final Stretch need-based grants will be provided to students with over 60 semester credit hours ($2 million to those of any major, $2 million for STEM majors). P-16 Regional Councils Institutes The Coordinating Board held three P-16 Institutes this year to provide professional development for P-16 Regional Councils so that they can become the primary vehicles to implement outreach and awareness activities. P-16 Councils are ideal for this responsibility because of their ability to engage local communities. P-16 Councils will allow Texas to accelerate efforts to build college-going cultures. College and Career Readiness Standards In 2008, the Coordinating Board and the Commissioner of Education adopted the Texas College and Career Readiness Standards (CCRS). The standards were created by statewide vertical teams of public education and higher education faculty with expertise in the four 30
foundation areas of the public school curriculum: English/language arts, the social sciences, mathematics, and science. In addition to the four content areas, the teams developed crossdisciplinary standards that underlie and connect the four content areas. Input was gathered at all levels of the process, with an advisory committee of representatives from business and industry, the community, and public and higher education appointed by the governor overseeing the process. Open public comments were encouraged and considered. The process was a model of cross-disciplinary, cross-institutional, and cross-sector collaboration, and serves as evidence that commonality of purpose can be achieved. Regional College Readiness Special Advisors To help inform educators, parents, students, and others about the CCRS and ensure that the standards are implemented, regional college readiness special advisors representing regions across the state have been appointed to work in all 10 higher education regions. The advisors are executive staff from institutions of higher education and education service centers who liaise with the Coordinating Board, their colleagues at other institutions in the higher education region, Education Service Center (ESC) representatives, P-16 Councils, school districts, and other education stakeholders to coordinate and collaborate on strategies to strengthen P-16 alignment and the successful implementation of the CCRS. College and Career Readiness Initiative Faculty Collaboratives The Coordinating Board established the College and Career Readiness Faculty Collaborative Initiative to provide faculty of institutions of higher education who prepare preservice teachers with the latest information and resources regarding the College and Career Readiness Standards. The activities of the Faculty Collaboratives will help ensure that prospective teachers receive preparation that is closely aligned with the CCRS. New teachers will be better able to prepare their students to be college-ready in the four content areas and in the cross disciplinary standards included in the CCRS. Additionally, a website was launched in November 2009, with a basic structure to allow for the dissemination of pertinent information and access to resources. Content will be added continuously, especially in the form of professional development tools. Promoting Access and Success in Critical Allied Health Fields Math, Science, and Technology Teacher Preparation (MSTTP) Academies The Coordinating Board oversees state funding and coordinates program practices for the establishment of Math, Science, and Technology Teacher Preparation (MSTTP) Academies at Texas public institutions of higher education. The MSTTP Academies are teacher preparation academies designed and led by institutions of higher education to strengthen in-service and pre-service teachers content knowledge and pedagogical skills, to promote teacher leadership, and to create learning communities of Academy participants. Key outcomes of this project will be higher levels of teacher certification in Math, Science, and Technology (MST); higher levels of teachers completing master s degrees in the MST fields; and higher levels of certified master teachers in the MST fields. 31
Family Practice Residency Program The Family Practice Residency Program (FPRP) was established in 1977 by the Texas Legislature to increase the numbers of physicians selecting family practice as their medical specialty and to encourage those physicians to establish their practices in rural and underserved communities in Texas. The program improves the distribution of family physicians throughout the state and provides increased medical care to patients in underserved areas. The FPRP provides grants to Texas' 29 nationally-accredited family practice residency programs located in every region of the state and provides strong support for Texas health care education and delivery network. Hospital-Based Nursing Education Partnership Grant Program The Hospital-Based Nursing Education Partnership Grant Program is a peer-reviewed grant competition that supports educational initiatives using innovative instruction and the existing expertise and facilities of hospital-based nursing education partnerships. The purpose of the program is to address the state's need for registered nurses by fostering collaboration among hospital and academic partners, with the resulting partnerships leading to an increase in the number of students enrolled in and graduating from professional nursing education degree programs. Many of the selected projects will provide new outreach efforts and help educate RNs in underserved regions of the state. 32
Facilities Planning Promoting Student Success through Institutional Success The extent of classroom-based educational opportunities available for students in a region is tied to the number and location of higher education institutions and off-site teaching locations in that region. Some Coordinating Board regions have two-year and four-year institutions scattered throughout; others have only a few. In general, more densely populated areas tend to have more facilities and a larger range of program opportunities, but there may not be a direct correlation between the number of potential students in a region and the facilities needed to accommodate them. The state furnishes and maintains the facilities used by public universities, health-related institutions, and state/technical colleges. Community college facilities are the responsibility of local community college districts. Details about the extent and condition of community college campuses and buildings are not reported to the state. As student enrollments increase, institutions will need to use their facilities more efficiently to keep pace with demand. This may include scheduling changes and greater use of online resources to offer entire courses or parts of hybrid classes. Recommendation: The fastest growing areas of the state (the Metroplex, Gulf Coast, South Texas, and Central Texas regions) must creatively meet increased student demand for education services through innovative use of facilities, hybrid classes and distance education opportunities, effective student advising and support practices, policies supporting on-time degree attainment, and efficient financial aid packaging. The Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies (HECE) recommends the Coordinating Board develop a strategic growth plan for meeting student demand. The strategic planners should, according to the HECE, consider several options, including increasing productivity and capacity of existing institutions and creating new types of institutions, such as online only institutions, competency-based institutions, and no-frills instructional institutions. Regional considerations should be part of a strategic plan to accommodate growth, and those considerations should include facilities issues. The section below concerns state facilities, but the same topics and issues apply to community college facilities. State Facilities Overview Overall, state higher education institutions have exceptional facilities, with a condition index value of $33.3 billion and an average age of 33 years. The High Plains region s facilities have the oldest average age of 43 years, while the Upper East region s have the youngest at 17 years. Considering the many changes that have taken place in the realm of higher education, the suitability of older structures to house contemporary instructional activity, while maximizing 33
efficiency, may be questionable. There is a need to reinvest in existing facilities both for reasons of deferred maintenance and to retool buildings to accommodate the current learning/classroom styles (adaptive renovation). Generally, the efficiency of use of classrooms and class laboratories is considered the bellwether of overall efficient use of facilities. Therefore, the Coordinating Board calculates a Space Usage Efficiency Model (SUE) index score, composed of a demand measure and a utilization measure, to assess the efficient use of space at universities. Over the next five years, public higher education institutions plan to construct over 36 million gross square feet, in addition to the 186 million gross square feet they currently occupy. This would increase the educational and general (E&G) square footage by 10.7 million square feet, to 72.5 million E&G square feet, with a total price tag estimated at $18.7 billion. This is an ambitious plan, considering the space deficit as of fall 2009 was 10.3 million E&G square feet, statewide. Faculty Projections by Region The success of individual students depends heavily on the faculty members who teach and guide them throughout their higher education experience. Providing adequate faculty to efficiently and effectively meet student needs is an important component of institutional planning. Analyzing student growth patterns from the perspective of regional higher education resources can be done in the context of larger state needs and can help inform individual institutional decisions about faculty size and distribution. The Coordinating Board derived projections of faculty size for fall 2015 at public universities and two-year institutions, by region. The Board computed the fall 2009 student (undergraduate and graduate) to faculty ratio for each region, and divided it into the region s 2015 institutional enrollment target to yield the projected faculty count for fall 2015. It was assumed that the regional student to faculty ratio will not change by fall 2015. The results are shown in Table 10. The increases from 2009 to 2015 are new positions and do not include replacements for departing faculty, which can provide significant additional faculty opportunities. Based on this analysis, 4,317 (12 percent) new faculty will be needed at public universities by fall 2015. The lowest rate of increase is projected to be in the Central Texas region, with just 1 percent growth. That is because The University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M University set enrollment targets for 2015 that total almost 2,000 fewer students than their total enrollment in fall 2009, while the other university in that region, Texas State University San Marcos, plans to grow by just a little over 3,000 students by 2015. The largest increase will be in the Metroplex, with 1,206 new faculty positions, but the fastest growth (37 percent) will be in Upper East Texas. Public two-year institutions will add faculty at a much higher rate (26 percent, or 8,082 positions) than universities. As with universities, the greatest growth is projected to be in the Metroplex (2,421 new positions) but the fastest growth (67 percent) will be in the Upper Rio Grande. 34
Table 10 Projected Faculty Needs Based on Institutional Closing the Gaps Enrollment Targets and Current Student to Faculty Ratios Fall 2009 Fall 2015 Institutional Faculty Change from 2009 Student/ Enrollment Projected Region Enrollment Faculty Faculty Ratio Target Faculty Number Percent Public Universities High Plains 37,866 3,086 12.3 46,000 3,749 663 21% Northwest 6,042 348 17.4 6,537 377 29 8% Metroplex 111,534 7,159 15.6 130,319 8,365 1,206 17% Upper East 7,760 524 14.8 10,600 716 192 37% Southeast 26,686 1,416 18.8 30,640 1,626 210 15% Gulf Coast 93,876 6,699 14.0 104,495 7,457 758 11% Central Texas 132,688 10,000 13.3 134,406 10,129 129 1% South Texas 82,857 4,659 17.8 94,803 5,331 672 14% West Texas 9,922 588 16.9 12,350 732 144 24% Upper Rio Grande 22,995 1,370 16.8 28,289 1,685 315 23% Total University 532,226 35,849 14.8 598,439 40,166 4,317 12% Public Two-year Institutions High Plains 23,500 974 24.1 26,452 1,096 122 13% Northwest 12,548 648 19.4 17,380 898 250 39% Metroplex 174,121 7,307 23.8 231,817 9,728 2,421 33% Upper East 40,056 1,867 21.5 43,606 2,032 165 9% Southeast 12,964 724 17.9 14,521 811 87 12% Gulf Coast 156,346 7,214 21.7 204,453 9,434 2,220 31% Central Texas 92,460 4,346 21.3 110,945 5,215 869 20% South Texas 139,350 5,996 23.2 163,104 7,018 1,022 17% West Texas 15,432 746 20.7 18,492 894 148 20% Upper Rio Grande 26,068 1,163 22.4 43,501 1,941 778 67% Total Two-year 692,845 30,985 22.4 874,271 39,067 8,082 26% Source: THECB and Institutional Data Institutional Success through Research Scientific research conducted at higher education institutions is vital for identifying and developing new knowledge; knowledge that can lead to ground-breaking innovations, drive the economy, and improve the quality of life for Texas citizens. High-quality research efforts require the appropriate level of funding, particularly from the federal government, the major source of research funds. Recommendation: The higher education sector should collaborate with workforce development councils, institutional and other researchers, and business and community leaders to identify research opportunities within a region; collaborative efforts that could attract research funding should also be identified. Federal funding supports 52 percent of all research expenditures at Texas institutions of higher education. The majority of the support comes from four sources: the National Institutes 35
of Health, the Department of Defense, the National Science Foundation, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Biological science, medical science, and engineering receive the most federal financial research support. Texas colleges and universities also benefit from a range of other funding targeted toward research. State, corporate, and private funds help support a range of research efforts. The Texas Research Incentive Program (TRIP), funded by the Texas Legislature in 2009, has committed $47.5 million in matching funds to help emerging research universities strive to become nationally recognized. The Norm Hackerman Advanced Research Program, Texas Emerging Technology Fund, Competitive Knowledge Fund, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, and Research Development Fund are all state sponsored programs that provide significant support of research efforts. Institutions must be creative when they vie for research funds. One means to do so is by working collaboratively. Partnerships that extend beyond institutional walls to the community beyond can provide fertile ground for innovation, parlaying unique regional needs, expertise, and resources into research opportunities. Research expenditures are concentrated in those regions with high populations and large institutions. Health-related institutions (HRIs) produce about half of all research spending. Regions without HRIs or large universities have low levels of research expenditures. 36
Barriers to Student Success Many Texas students face challenges, and some have significant obstacles to overcome as they move through the educational pipeline. Some of these challenges may be physical or emotional; some may be economic; and others may be academic, social, or cultural. With lower than average educational attainment rates compared to other states, Texas has many students whose parents did not attend college. In addition, close to one-third of all public school students in Texas qualify for economic assistance (free or reduced lunch), and a high percentage are lacking in the academic preparation and skills necessary for college success. These factors can put students at risk as they progress through the K-12 education system and, for those who make it, into college. Students who are economically, academically, or otherwise at risk are not equally distributed through Texas higher education regions, and any analysis of regional data must recognize this. It is also important to recognize that there can be vast population differences within regions. Texas large metropolitan areas have both affluent suburbs with highly educated populations and urban areas with large low-income populations. Regional data provide a more specific look than a statewide picture can provide, but planners and others using these data must always remain cognizant of the differences inherent within as well as across regions. Student, institutional, and regional outcome data cannot be studied without an understanding of how risk factors influence student outcomes. However, it is vital that planners and other stakeholders understand that while students with certain types of risk factors may not, on average, progress through higher education at the success levels of students who are not at risk, there is great variation in success rates for at-risk students. Striving to help these students achieve success should be a top priority for institutions, regions, and the state. Without extra efforts in this area, Closing the Gaps goals cannot be realized. In Texas, a large percentage of students who enroll in college are found to not be ready to succeed at college-level work. The Texas Success Initiative (TSI) provides a statewide measure of student preparation for college. Standards for minimum test scores or performance in the areas of mathematics, writing, and reading provide a baseline for gauging students readiness to enroll in freshman-level academic coursework. State accountability measures track student performance, as measured by the state standard at initial enrollment and during a student s first years in college, to determine how long it takes underprepared students to complete TSI requirements and, subsequently, succeed in entry-level college courses. Readiness for enrollment based on the TSI standard is tracked for all Texas higher education enrollees and for a subset of this group: public high school graduates who enroll immediately in higher education. Disaggregated student TSI performance data for recent high school graduates which include results by student economic status provide information about possible risk factors related to success in college. These data are available at (RP 2010: HS to College). Table 11 shows information about 2007-2008 public high school graduates who enrolled in Texas public higher education in fall 2008, by region. TSI status as of the end of the fall 2008 semester is shown. The highest percentage of high school graduates who enrolled immediately in a higher education institution came from the Gulf Coast region (51.9 percent). 37
Students from Central Texas were the most prepared of the cohort, followed by West Texas, the Metroplex, and the Gulf Coast. Of the three skills areas assessed, student preparedness levels were lowest in mathematics. Table 11 Achievement Relative to Texas Success Initiative (TSI) Standards Of High School Graduates in 2007-2008 Who Enrolled in Higher Education in Fall 2008 Region Percent Enrolled in Higher Ed Percent Enrolled in Higher Ed and Met TSI Standards HS Grads All Areas Math Writing Reading High Plains 9,009 46.9% 63.1% 72.5% 83.2% 79.1% Northwest 6,528 40.4% 63.4% 72.3% 82.6% 77.0% Metroplex 65,835 47.8% 63.7% 72.6% 84.8% 79.8% Upper East 11,213 46.7% 53.7% 62.8% 76.8% 70.4% Southeast 7,641 47.6% 61.7% 69.3% 82.6% 78.4% Gulf Coast 59,975 51.9% 63.7% 72.4% 82.5% 78.4% Central Texas 26,483 48.0% 68.9% 77.0% 86.4% 81.7% South Texas 49,465 50.2% 51.9% 61.3% 74.1% 67.4% West Texas 5,778 49.8% 63.9% 72.0% 85.3% 81.2% Upper Rio Grande 10,194 49.5% 48.3% 63.2% 85.5% 63.0% Statewide 252,121 49.1% 60.7% 69.8% 81.8% 76.0% Source: THECB and Institutional Data Students who enter college underprepared are less likely to persist and graduate than those who are ready to begin college-level work upon arrival. Statewide, 44.1 percent of public university students who did not meet statewide readiness standards graduated or were still enrolled six years after entry (fall 2003 cohort data). In contrast, a full 75.9 percent of students in the cohort who met state readiness standards had graduated or were still persisting after the same time had elapsed. For community colleges, three-year graduation or persistence data show that for the most recent cohort available (students entering in fall 2005), 38.3 percent of the students requiring developmental education had earned a certificate or an associate s degree or were still persisting, and 57 percent of students who did not require developmental education had the same result. The more areas in which a student does not meet the TSI standard, the more likely the student will not persist. Institutional persistence and success data for students taking and not taking developmental education are available at http://www.txhighereddata.org/reports/performance/deved/. Recommendation: Regions should evaluate the needs of economically disadvantaged, first-generation, and/or underprepared college students, and gather community, as well as institutional, resources to help these students prepare for, pay for, and succeed in college. 38
Students Receiving Pell Assistance by Region The percentage of students receiving federal Pell awards also differs by higher education region. A population with a high percent of economically disadvantaged students may require different strategies for success on the part of institutions; attention to financial aid and how assistance is packaged may be more critical for these areas. Table 12 Undergraduate Students Receiving Pell Assistance, FY 2009 Four-Year Public Universities Percent of Students Receiving Pell Region Total African Students All* White Am. Hispanic High Plains 25,900 22.0% 16.2% 51.3% 43.1% Northwest 3,909 31.6% 27.0% 57.9% 42.5% Metroplex 55,703 29.4% 21.7% 55.4% 40.4% Upper East 4,245 33.3% 29.0% 64.7% 42.5% Southeast 15,229 36.8% 24.1% 65.1% 42.6% Gulf Coast 53,044 38.7% 19.2% 60.7% 41.8% Central Texas 89,600 20.7% 12.5% 50.0% 41.7% South Texas 45,664 45.9% 23.2% 49.3% 59.6% West Texas 6,538 35.8% 26.7% 60.4% 49.2% Upper Rio Grande 12,141 51.6% 33.1% 50.9% 61.5% Statewide 311,973 31.7% 18.2% 57.9% 50.6% Table 13 Students Receiving Pell Assistance, FY 2009 Two-Year Community Colleges Percent of Students Receiving Pell Region Total African Students All* White Am. Hispanic High Plains 8,168 42.4% 32.8% 71.1% 59.3% Northwest 3,964 44.0% 39.2% 56.3% 53.1% Metroplex 43,104 28.1% 20.4% 59.1% 32.4% Upper East 16,622 44.1% 36.7% 70.3% 46.3% Southeast 5,269 47.4% 41.0% 68.6% 40.4% Gulf Coast 35,809 25.5% 16.3% 53.8% 32.9% Central Texas 28,413 33.7% 25.7% 67.6% 44.3% South Texas 39,206 56.7% 35.6% 62.3% 65.1% West Texas 4,425 37.1% 26.5% 62.7% 47.2% Upper Rio Grande 8,736 63.7% 39.4% 41.5% 68.8% Statewide 193,716 38.9% 26.6% 62.0% 53.7% * The "All" category includes white, African American, Hispanic, Asian American, Native American, and international students, as well as those classified as other. Source: THECB and Institutional Data 39
The data in Tables 12 and 13 show the percentage of white, African American, and Hispanic populations of full-time undergraduate students who received Pell Assistance in FY 2009. In two regions, South Texas and the Upper Rio Grande, a higher percentage of Hispanic students received Pell than any other ethnic group at both community colleges and four-year institutions. Debt Load Study To better gauge how college-loan debt impacts college students, a study was done to analyze student loan debt. First-time, full-time university students in fall 2003 were followed for six years to better understand the relationship between financial aid and student outcomes. The average loan per student for those who did not graduate and were not found in fall 2009 is shown in Table 14 by ethnicity and region. Table 14 First-Time, Full-Time Entering Undergraduates, Fall 2003 Average Loan of Students who Did Not Graduate and Were Not Found Enrolled in Fall 2009 African Region All White Hispanic Asian Other American High Plains $13,912 $14,609 $13,695 $11,510 $15,916 $8,440 Northwest $11,681 $11,559 $15,530 $7,376 $6,777 $4,570 Metroplex $11,964 $11,301 $13,774 $12,270 $11,812 $11,462 Upper East $6,753 $6,344 $9,282 $4,394 N/A $1,273 Southeast $10,343 $9,659 $11,532 $10,754 $3,580 $6,478 Gulf Coast $9,955 $9,838 $10,404 $7,311 $6,723 $9,133 Central Texas $15,963 $15,120 $19,254 $15,711 $19,878 $19,455 South Texas $8,763 $9,568 $10,378 $8,016 $12,624 $12,608 West Texas $7,860 $7,723 $7,914 $7,703 $7,899 $28,656 Upper Rio Grande $5,950 $4,991 $5,433 $6,129 $5,304 $13,693 Statewide $10,802 $11,544 $11,158 $9,082 $11,989 $11,509 Source: THECB and Institutional Data Students who have incurred college loan debt are less likely to struggle with loan repayment if they complete a degree. At the Coordinating Board Regional Roundtable meetings held in 2010 in several areas across the state, data shared on lost earning capacity indicate that students who did complete a college degree had significantly higher earning potential than those who did not finish. Although the average salaries earned varied somewhat from area to area, the basic pattern proved to be the same across regions. With more than 50 percent of African American and Hispanic undergraduates in Texas receiving Pell awards, as well as approximately 20 percent of white students, many of our students face economic challenges. Incurring substantial debt without the higher salary can lead to economic hardships for non-completers. Lack of sufficient educated workers can negatively impact the regional economy as well. More comprehensive regional data on Pell assistance and loan debt are available through the web portal (RP 2010: Inst Enroll). 40
Action Areas to Remove Barriers to Success The Coordinating Board believes that improving student readiness for college-level work requires the cooperation of many stakeholders. The programs described next are major Coordinating Board sponsored efforts to help underprepared students achieve college success. Improving the delivery and effectiveness of developmental education programs in Texas can substantially accelerate progress toward Closing the Gaps and help students overcome barriers to success. Recommendation: The Coordinating Board should coordinate a series of regional meetings to present institutional developmental education coordinators and leaders with regionally-focused data, including tools for using developmental education and other regional data for evaluating programs and anticipating future needs. Recommendation: Subsequent to the regional meetings focusing on developmental education data, faculty development sessions based on regional data and research about best practices should be scheduled to create regional learning community networks. Higher Education Intensive and Bridging Programs The Coordinating Board directly administers appropriated funding for the purpose of establishing Higher Education Intensive and Bridging Programs. The goal of the Intensive and Bridging Programs is to decrease the need for developmental education and increase student persistence and success. Eligible student participants receive rigorous academic instruction in the subject areas of English/language arts, mathematics, and/or science during the summer, weekends, or before- or after-school timeframes. Selected programs address at least one of four programmatic components: Adult Education Students (AES) for GED completers transitioning to higher education High School Bridge (HS) for 11th and 12th graders not college ready First Year Persistence (FYP) for first year students at risk of dropping out of college Developmental Education Bridge (DE) for recent high school graduates not college ready Statewide Developmental Education Plan In July 2009, the Coordinating Board approved a long-range statewide plan to improve the effectiveness of developmental education in Texas. To implement the Statewide Developmental Education Plan, several strategic initiatives have been funded and have rigorous evaluation components to determine effectiveness and scalability in improving developmental and adult education in Texas. The Community College Developmental Education Initiative provides resources to strengthen developmental education efforts in public two-year institutions around the state. Accelerated Developmental Education Pilots have been funded to determine if accelerated course-based developmental education is effective. The outcome of the 41
pilots will guide the curricula design component and will inform other developmental education efforts focusing on the use of modular curricula for mathematics and reading programs. The Community College and University Developmental Education Demonstration Project strategically drives systemic reform for developmental education by developing a comprehensive model of developmental education for use in Texas. The projects will implement innovative strategies based upon promising practices in developmental education to improve access, acceleration, and success of students placed into developmental education coursework. The Developmental Education Math Improvement Center is designed to improve the preparedness of math faculty assigned to teach developmental education by providing training and technical assistance services to selected community colleges and universities. Adult Basic Education - Transitions Project provides funding to research and report on the success of students who move from adult education programs into postsecondary education, with a rigorous evaluation to determine scalability. This project will validate the identified best practices and determine scalability for statewide implementation. Adult Basic Education Innovative Grants provide funding to public community and technical colleges to 1) increase participation in adult basic education, and 2) increase the number of adult basic education students that transition to postsecondary training programs. 42
An Examination of Programs by Region High Demand Certificate and Degree Programs The Regional Plan statute calls for the Coordinating Board to identify regions with unmet needs for services and programs and provide recommendations for how those needs can be met efficiently. Careful analysis of program availability, enrollments, and degrees earned can help regions and institutions be more responsive to workforce and student demands. However, program planning must also utilize a range of additional resources such as environmental scans, reviews of workforce projections and other data, an inquiry process to identify nascent or transforming fields, and feedback from the business community and other stakeholder groups. Recommendation: To foster alignment between regional postsecondary education and workforce needs, planners must review workforce projections, higher education program availability, and high school-to-college readiness and success data as an integrated whole to ensure that workforce and student needs are identified and met. The Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies emphasized that student demand can be met through efficiencies and innovation in such areas as program delivery and creating clear pathways for success. Collaborative solutions can emerge when the focus extends beyond institutional walls and the need (or lack thereof) for programs is considered from multiple perspectives. While the ability to adapt program offerings to local and regional needs is more commonly viewed as a goal for community colleges, universities must also be nimble in meeting student, workforce, and societal needs. Thinking regionally can help advance broader goals even for the state s large universities. Conversely, community colleges must look not just within their own boundaries but far beyond them as they plan for the future. As the 2009 Commission on Higher Education and Global Competitiveness report stressed, regional and statewide solutions are needed to meet global demands. As part of the development of this Regional Plan, two analyses were conducted that provide insight into program availability, enrollments, and overlap by region. The first is an analysis of 2009 awards and degrees conferred by program (also called fields or majors), degree level, and region that highlights awards in high-demand areas. The second includes programs by type of award or degree over a five-year span for several selected program areas. They are grouped first by program (six-digit classification of instructional program (CIP) code), then by institution, degree level, and region. Those programs that the Coordinating Board, in a separate study, identified as low-producing are highlighted in yellow in this report so that regional comparisons can readily be made. In addition, a state-level analysis of degrees awarded from 2004-2009 by two-digit program CIP code illustrates trends over time and provides a broader context for regional CIP code analyses. All of these program area analysis reports are available through the regional portal at (RP 2010: Programs). Recommendation: Staff from institutions with low-producing programs should review demand for those programs at nearby institutions to determine if collaboration or consolidation is feasible. 43
High-Demand Program Analysis Similar to past results, in 2009, 85 percent of degrees and certificates awarded by Texas public colleges and universities were in areas identified as high demand, as determined by the number of degrees and certificates awarded per program area. Awards were given at the certificate level and the associate s, bachelor s, and master s degree levels in more than 1,100 program areas. However, less than one-quarter of those program areas were identified as high demand. Table 15 Summary of 2009 High-Demand Award Areas by Award Level Total Awards in High Demand Majors Percent High- Demand Awards High- Demand Definition A Total Majors with One or More Awards Total High- Demand Majors Percent High Demand Majors Type Total Awards Certificate B 22,800 19,072 83.6% >=100 200 47 23.5% Associate's 41,974 36,270 86.4% >=100 299 53 17.7% Bachelor's 81,126 69,462 85.6% >=200 296 63 21.3% Master's 28,523 25,385 89.0% >=50 336 97 28.9% Doctorate 3,083 1,596 51.8% >=30 210 25 11.9% Total 177,506 151,785 85.5% 1,341 285 21.3% A The total statewide awards in a major/program exceed or are equal to the number listed. B Certificate programs reviewed in this report refer to Level 1, Level 2 and Technology Certificates which consist of programs requiring between 15 and 42 semester credit hours (Level 1), between 43 and 59 semester credit hours (Level 2), and those that lead to technology certificates. Source: THECB and Institutional Data While many certificate and degree programs with small enrollments make an important contribution to the state, and a number of emerging new fields show real potential for growth, weighing program benefits and costs should be a priority for institutions. Reviewing both the data about high-demand programs, which may influence where funding is concentrated, and information about the low-producing programs can help add clarity to that process. When the first Regional Plan was published in December 2002, there were many gaps in high-demand program availability in the five high-growth areas of the state. In the 2004 Regional Plan, those gaps were shown to have lessened considerably, with few remaining at the time the 2006 plan was published. At the time of the 2008 analysis, there were still a few highdemand deficiencies identified, but the growth of distance education opportunities, included for the first time in the analysis, anticipated the changes to come. The growth of online opportunities, tracked in the total and high demand analysis report for the 2010 plan, indicates that students from around the state have access to many more options for meeting their instructional needs than in the past. For example, more than 350 online programs were identified under 66 two-digit CIP code areas in the high-demand analysis (CIP counts are duplicated by degree level). 44
While it is important to review regional data about program availability and demand when considering institutional changes to program offerings, it is also important to consider local context. A lack or low number of programs in a region should not be assumed to represent unmet need. A program with high enrollments in one area of the state may be popular because of area industries and workforce needs, or because of unique regional characteristics, such as proximity to the coast or ranch land. Specific program considerations must also be taken into account when assessing need. For example, doctoral programs can be expensive to offer and tend to produce graduates who are mobile in the job market. For some technical or professional programs, the expense of facilities or equipment might outweigh other considerations, especially if the program is already available within a reasonable geographic range. The Regional Plan analysis only addresses degree attainment in programs at public higher education institutions due to limited availability of program-level data about degrees earned at Texas private colleges and universities and forprofit institutions. Finally, the high-demand program data illustrate that there are differences in how programs are structured. Scanning the information in the high-demand analysis, taking careful note of both observed deficiencies and regional and statewide degree patterns in those identified fields, can serve as one means for institutions to identify demand. Low-Producing Programs The Coordinating Board annually reviews the number of graduates produced by degree program to determine which are producing low numbers of completers (Texas Administrative Code, Sections 4.285-4.293). In April 2010, the program completion thresholds were raised for productive programs, consequences were established for low-producing programs, the program review cycle was changed from three to five years, notification of low-producing programs at the third and fourth year was incorporated, and the exemption and consequence process was clarified. The new thresholds for low-producing programs are a minimum of 25 associate or baccalaureate degree completers, 15 master s degree completers, and 10 doctorate program completers over a five-year period. Using FY 2009 data provided by institutions, a statewide total of 132 applied associate s, 284 baccalaureate, 220 master s, and 114 doctoral level programs would be considered low-producing under these new guidelines. Of these, 181 programs have not produced any graduates in the last five years. 45
Five-Year Trend Analysis of Degrees Awarded The analysis of five-year trends (2005-2009) in the number of certificates, associate s degrees, and bachelor s degrees awarded shows variability from year to year for some program areas and consistent upward or downward trends for others. Regional Trends in growth must be viewed in light of the overall statewide change in the number of degrees awarded; a flat trend line at the regional level paired with stagnant statewide growth could suggest declining interest in a field (RP 2010: Programs). The five-year trend analysis shows that some science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields have increased awards, while other fields have been more stagnant. Awards in the physical sciences (CIP 40) show a steady growth trend since 2005; mathematics and statistics degrees (CIP 27) have fluctuated in recent years; and engineering degrees (CIP 14) have increased steadily. Engineering technologies awards (CIP 15), which showed a decrease from 2005 to 2007, increased in 2008 and 2009, with 2009 awards surpassing 2005 highs. Five-year trends in professional degree awards in the areas of medicine, osteopathy, pharmacy, optometry, veterinary medicine, dentistry, law, audiology, and physical therapy at Texas public institutions are also available through the regional portal. The majority of professional degrees in the state are awarded in five regions: Central Texas, Gulf Coast, Metroplex, South Texas, and High Plains. Critical Fields An examination of growth in all fields identified as critical in the Closing the Gaps plan shows that while STEM awards increased from 15,486 in 2000 to 19,013 in 2009, STEM awards as a percentage of all awards dropped from 12.6 percent to 10.5 percent during that time (see Table 16). Nursing and allied health awards increased in both number and percentage of total awards. Table 16 Degrees and Certificates Awarded in All, STEM, and Nursing & Allied Health Fields, FY 2000 and 2009 STEM Fields Nursing & Allied Health Fields Total in All Fields Number Percent of Total Number Percent of Total Region 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 High Plains 8,120 10,966 889 1,143 10.9% 10.4% 929 1,685 11.4% 15.4% Northwest 2,294 2,865 190 215 8.3% 7.5% 618 979 26.9% 34.2% Metroplex 24,777 39,435 2,744 3,401 11.1% 8.6% 2,851 4,199 11.5% 10.6% Upper East 5,564 8,490 703 996 12.6% 11.7% 1,282 1,896 23.0% 22.3% Southeast 4,886 6,834 542 615 11.0% 9.0% 772 1,027 15.8% 15.0% Gulf Coast 23,136 35,098 2,686 3,017 11.5% 8.6% 2,545 4,410 11.0% 12.6% Central Texas 30,719 38,144 5,737 6,245 20.1% 16.4% 1,759 2,350 5.7% 6.2% South Texas 17,016 28,854 1,419 2,505 8.4% 8.7% 2,913 4,404 17.1% 15.3% West Texas 2,764 3,370 181 240 6.5% 7.1% 436 656 15.8% 19.5% Upper Rio Grande 3,713 6,747 395 636 10.6% 9.4% 533 744 14.4% 11.0% Statewide 122,989 180,803 15,486 19,013 12.6% 10.5% 14,638 22,350 11.9% 12.4% Source: THECB and Institutional Data 46
Data specific to awards by level and region for critical field areas are available on the regional data web portal (RP 2010: Programs) and included in the regional highlights section of the Regional Plan. 47
Employment Projections Using Workforce and Occupational Data to Assess Regional Education Needs Local economies vary, and the pace of growth and change within each can fluctuate. Incorporating workforce data, and being sensitive to the local business community and its needs, are important components of regional planning for higher education. The Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) generates 10-year employment projections every two years for Texas, by industry and occupation. These projections are made at the state level and for each of the 28 TWC workforce development areas (WDAs). The most recent projections cover the period from 2006 to 2016. For the Regional Plan, the Coordinating Board aggregated WDA-level occupation data to the regional level (each region is comprised of one or more WDAs). Region-level projections are included for every Coordinating Board region in the regional workbooks available through the regional portal at (RP 2010: Workforce). State-level projections are located in the topic area section in the workforce workbook. For all projections, only the top occupations data are displayed: those adding the most new jobs or growing the fastest. The portal also includes employment data for high school seniors who did or did not graduate (RP 2010: Workforce). TWC makes the following assumptions about the 10-year projection period: work patterns, such as the average workweek, will not change markedly; broad social and educational trends will continue; there will be no major war or significant change in the size of the armed forces; and fluctuations in economic activity due to the business cycle will continue to occur. Because these projections were made prior to the recent economic downturn, they likely will not include the extent of fluctuation that has occurred. TWC projects that statewide employment will grow by nearly 2.4 million new jobs (21 percent) from 2006 to 2016. Another 2.5 million replacement jobs (those held by individuals who will leave the workforce by 2016) will bring the total job openings between 2006 and 2016 to about 4.8 million. Seven of the top ten fastest growing occupations (with 2,500 or more employment in 2006) are those for which an associate s degree or higher is preferred, and for six of those seven occupations a bachelor s degree or higher is preferred. These occupations include network systems and data communications analysts, special education and other K-12 teachers, computer software engineers, and physician assistants. They typically pay much higher wages than occupations for which just on-the-job training, with no postsecondary education, is preferred, such as food preparation and serving workers, retail salespersons, personal and home care aides, and child care workers. The Regional Highlights section of the Regional Plan lists occupations for which an associate s degree or higher is preferred. Each region s table lists the top five occupations adding the most new jobs and the top five that are growing the fastest. As with statewide data, some occupations fall into both lists. Only occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006 are displayed, so some occupations that lead in growth rate statewide may not make a regional list. Some key findings of the regional workforce data include: 48
Three occupations are among those adding the most new jobs in every region: registered nurses, kindergarten and elementary teachers, and middle and secondary teachers. Not surprisingly, these well-dispersed occupations are also leaders in adding new jobs at the statewide level. Accountants and auditors are in the list of occupations adding the most new jobs in every region except the Upper Rio Grande. Computer software engineers are found in the lists of top occupations, usually fastest growing, in every region except South Texas. Network and computer systems analysts and administrators are found on seven regional lists, usually for fast growth, and business operations specialists are in six lists, usually for adding new jobs. TWC projects that the Metroplex will add the most new jobs (677,550) of any region by 2016, followed closely by the Gulf Coast (662,950 new jobs). However, the Gulf Coast should have the fastest regional growth, 24 percent. Fast-growing occupations in the Gulf Coast for which a postsecondary degree is preferred include three in medical fields. Other fast-growing occupations can be found by examining the regional tables. Meeting Regional Workforce Needs with Additional Baccalaureate Programs The Coordinating Board recently completed a legislatively mandated study which examined the success of Bachelor of Applied Technology (BAT) programs offered by several Texas community colleges and the feasibility of expanding the offering of baccalaureate degrees to other public community colleges. Key issues included an analysis of regional and state workforce needs; current and potential university offerings; and other methods for making baccalaureate degrees available, such as distance education programs and higher education teaching centers. The study concluded that Texas should increase baccalaureate degree offerings in several fields indentified by TWC as needing employees in the future: elementary education, middle school education, secondary education, accounting/auditing, business operations, computer systems analysis, computer software engineering, construction management, and agricultural management. The state should employ a variety of methods, including online education, off-campus program expansion at higher education centers, and increased university and community college partnerships. The study also concluded that, in light of budgetary constraints, the state should be cautious about expanding baccalaureate programs to additional community colleges in Texas at this time and other options should be considered. Finally, the study recommends that the Coordinating Board and the Texas Workforce Commission provide public community colleges and universities with information on area workforce needs and projections so institutions can provide baccalaureate degree programs that will meet these needs. Overall, meeting regional needs for baccalaureate-trained employees will involve a thorough understanding of regional resources and programs and a willingness to work cooperatively on the part of all institutions in a region to ensure that those needs are met without unnecessary expense. 49
Regional Planning Data Portal In recent years, the capability to gather, store, and manipulate higher education data has improved, and the volume of data available has increased substantially. With improved data resources, the focus on data- and evidence-driven decision making has intensified at the local, regional, and state levels. The ability to assess, interpret, and convey data in ways that effectively inform decision making is a critical skill for policy makers, planners, and others who are striving to understand the higher education landscape and improve educational outcomes. In the past, regional data had been compiled for the Regional Plan and other projects. To allow for better access to more comprehensive regional data, the Coordinating Board has developed a regional data portal (Regional Portal). Recommendation: The Coordinating Board should provide training for institutional, regional, and state-level policy makers on how to use regional data to evaluate regional needs and support student success. The Coordinating Board s regional higher education data portal includes primarily data collected as part of the agency s standard data collection system through regularly scheduled institutional reports. Much of the data that are available through the portal have been presented in a different format in other Coordinating Board reports or through the interactive data systems. However, data from other sources, such as TWC, are also provided as well as some reports developed from available Coordinating Board data specifically for this report. How the Portal Data are Organized Regional data in the portal can be accessed through the Texas higher education data home page (www.txhighereddata.org) or directly through the regional portal (Regional Portal). The data are grouped in two ways: by topic area and by region. There is an Excel workbook for each of the 10 regions in the state and seven workbooks that contain data related to the higher education topic area links on the home page. The home page of the portal also includes a link to the current and prior Regional Plans as well as a Tools for Regional Planning section that includes an index to the data available through the portal. The higher education topic area includes data organized under the following seven headings: Population and Educational Attainment Higher Education Locations; Institutional Enrollment and Financial Aid Data Residents Enrollment In and Out of Region Seventh Grade Cohort and High School to College Data Student Success Persistence, Transfer, and Graduation Degrees Awarded by Program Area/High Demand, Low Demand, Critical Fields Occupational Data and Workforce Projections The tools section of the portal is designed to provide guidance to planners and others interested in using the regional data to support student success and other initiatives. 50
Conclusion and Recommendations The 2010 Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education promotes alignment between state planning efforts and regional planning activities. Regional applications of the Closing the Gaps Plan, the Accelerated Plan for Closing the Gaps by 2015, and Report of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board on Higher Education Cost Efficiencies are emphasized. The Regional Plan is linked to a regional data portal on the Texas Higher Education Data website to encourage the strategic use of data. Projections in the Regional Plan show ongoing changes in the size and demographic distribution of the Texas population. The number of Hispanic residents is predicated to grow substantially in all regions between 2009 and 2015, yet overall population growth in some of these areas will be stagnant or slow. The Regional Plan and portal provide data disaggregated by ethnicity, gender, economic background, and other factors to highlight differences within and across regions. Regional conditions and needs can and should inform strategies for improving student access, persistence, and success. Data about program demand, program availability, and program productivity across regions is included in the Regional Plan to illustrate the need for creative solutions to provide students with the education and skills they need in a manner that uses state resources both effectively and efficiently. Decreasing science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) degree attainment rates seen in many regions calls for cooperative action to ensure future growth in these critical fields. Analysis of regional occupational data, considered in conjunction with program demand and availability data, allows for integration of workforce needs into regional program planning efforts. Twelve recommendations for region-focused planning and action are interspersed through the report and listed below. Higher education stakeholders at the institutional, regional, and state levels are encouraged to use the Regional Plan, regional data portal and other regional resources as they strive to meet state Closing the Gaps goals and prepare Texas and its students for a bright future. Recommendations: Regional needs must be evaluated when adopting Accelerated Plan strategies designed to increase the participation of Hispanics and African American males, improve the success rates of African American and Hispanic students, and improve the participation and success of students in STEM fields. The fastest growing areas of the state (the Metroplex, Gulf Coast, South Texas, and Central Texas regions) must creatively meet increased student demand for education services through innovative use of facilities, hybrid classes and distance education opportunities, effective student advising and support practices, policies supporting ontime degree attainment, and efficient financial aid packaging. Regions should evaluate the needs of economically disadvantaged, first-generation, and/ or underprepared college students, and gather community, as well as institutional, resources to help these students prepare for, pay for, and succeed in college. 51
To foster alignment between regional postsecondary education and workforce needs, planners must review workforce projections, higher education program availability, and high school-to-college readiness and success data as an integrated whole to ensure that workforce and student needs are identified and met. Staff from institutions with low-producing programs should review demand for those programs at nearby institutions to determine if collaboration or consolidation is feasible. The Coordinating Board should provide training for institutional, regional, and state-level policy makers on how to use regional data to evaluate regional needs and support student success. Outreach activities and grant awards related to Accelerated Plan recommendations should be balanced between community colleges and four-year institutions across the state, and regional collaborations should be encouraged for cost savings and to improve program effectiveness. Higher education institutions in a region must prioritize transfer success by providing aligned programs and clear pathways for both traditional and non-traditional students. P-16 Councils and Regional Advisors, with support from the Coordinating Board, should focus attention on persistence and success strategies. The Coordinating Board should coordinate a series of regional meetings to present institutional developmental education coordinators and leaders with regionally-focused data, including tools for using developmental education and other regional data for evaluating programs and anticipating future needs. Subsequent to the regional meetings focusing on developmental education data, faculty development sessions based on regional data and research about best practices should be scheduled to create regional learning community networks. The higher education sector should collaborate with workforce development councils, institutional and other researchers, and business and community leaders to identify research opportunities within a region; collaborative efforts that could attract research funding should also be identified. 52
Appendix A-1
Regional Summaries This section of the Regional Plan includes a summary for each of the 10 Higher Education Coordinating Board regions. Each summary contains a regional narrative followed by a selection of tables and graphs. The data and information presented in the narratives are not intended to be comprehensive, nor are they consistent across regions. Instead, the narratives are designed to give a regional overview and serve as examples of the types of regional data and analysis possible using the regional data portal, Regional Plan, and other Coordinating Board resources. The tables and graphs included in the summaries are the same for every region for comparison purposes. While attempts were made to select data that would illustrate the value of regional analysis, not every chart is discussed in the narratives. In fact, one intent of the summaries is to encourage readers to explore the data in the regional portal for themselves and make their own strategic connections across sources. A-2
High Plains The High Plains region is home to Texas Tech University (TTU), the state s fifth largest higher education institution, West Texas A&M University, and the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center (TTUHSC). These institutions provide undergraduate and graduate educational opportunities for residents of the region and for students throughout the state. The High Plains region is also home to several community colleges, including Amarillo College, Clarendon College, Frank Phillips College, and South Plains College, all of which provide academic and technical programs primarily to regional residents. The High Plains region is one of the slower growth regions in the state, with just a 2.1 percent change in the 18-35 year-old population predicted from 2009 to 2015. While the white population is projected to decrease by more than 6,000 individuals over the next six years, the Hispanic population will grow by over 11 percent. Hispanic enrollments in higher education have grown more than 62 percent for regional residents since 2000. For students enrolling in the region, community colleges have a higher percentage of Hispanic students (28 percent) than do universities (15 percent). For the region to meet institutional targets for Hispanic enrollment by 2015, current Hispanic enrollments must grow from 13,921 students (fall 2009) to 17,880 students. Strategies for accelerating participation from Hispanics, especially at universities, should be considered. The High Plains region has the highest percentage of male enrollments at the university level of any region, including more African American males than females. However, of the 67.6 percent of enrollees who earn a degree or certificate in six years or less, 62 percent are male and 73 percent are female. Seventh grade cohort data show that the High Plains region has the highest percentage of students who are still in the system in ninth grade and has the highest percentage of cohort students who graduate from high school. The region is fourth of all regions for percentage of seventh graders who completed a college degree or certificate within 12 years. Pipeline data, such as that found in the seventh grade cohort report, were presented at a Coordinating Board Regional Meeting sponsored by the Lumina Foundation and held in Lubbock in June 2010. Additional information related to the success of students from western portions of Texas was also presented. An accelerated developmental education pilot project has been funded by the Coordinating Board at three Texas colleges, including Amarillo College. The outcome of the pilot will guide the curriculum design component of current state developmental education initiatives and will inform other developmental education efforts focusing on the use of modular curricula. A-3
Regional occupational data show a 16 percent increase in jobs predicted in the High Plains between 2006 and 2016. The position preferring a degree for which the most jobs are predicted is registered nurse. The job classification area projected to have the greatest percentage growth is network systems and data communications analysts. Lubbock is the center of research activities in the High Plains area; TTU and TTUHSC receive a substantial amount of state and federal research funds. TTU received the highest disbursements from the Texas Research Incentive Program funds for 2010 and 2011 of all emerging research university recipients (more than $20.5 million). A-4
High Plains: Regional Map High Plains: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 250,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-5
High Plains: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education High Plains Students Attending In-Region High Plains Students Attending Out-of-Region High Plains High Plains to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Central 1,539 208 AMARILLO COLLEGE 10,687 Metroplex 837 234 SOUTH PLAINS COLLEGE 8,054 Northwest 261 373 CLARENDON COLLEGE 1,175 West 458 FRANK PHILLIPS COLLEGE 1,044 South Texas 161 48 Gulf Coast 158 23 Four-Year Public Institutions Southeast 102 TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY 6,517 Upper East 54 23 WEST TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY 5,541 Upper Rio Grande 76 Total 3,646 909 Independent Institutions WAYLAND BAPTIST UNIVERSITY 1,498 LUBBOCK CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY 1,293 High Plains Residents Enrolled by Total In Region Enrollment 35,809 Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 25,000 White African Am Hispanic Other 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-6
High Plains: Pipeline Data 90% 80% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 77.1% 70% 67.0% 65.3% 65.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 41.2% 36.1% 27.6% 20% 10% 0% 7.1% 8.1% Af. Am (n=787) Hispanic (n=4,734) White (n=6,779) High Plains: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% High Plains 63% 49% 47% Statewide 61% 73% 70% 83% 82% 79% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-7
High Plains: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs High Plains Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% High Plains 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-8
High Plains: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 51% 49% 44% 56% 54% 46% 47% 53% 51% 49% 42% 58% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-9
High Plains: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the High Plains Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & % Allied Health & Total Degrees STEM % STEM Nursing Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 699 975 120 100 17.2% 10.3% 252 285 36.1% 29.2% Associate's 1,048 1,440 127 78 12.1% 5.4% 294 378 28.1% 26.3% Bachelor's 4,679 6,216 427 710 9.1% 11.4% 256 670 5.5% 10.8% Graduate 1,694 2,335 215 255 12.7% 10.9% 127 352 7.5% 15.1% Total 8,120 10,966 889 1,143 10.9% 10.4% 929 1,685 11.4% 15.4% High Plains: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, High Plains High Growth in: Jobs Change Occupation Title Jobs Percen t 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Percent Change All Occupations 407,100 473,650 66,550 16% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Registered Nurses 7,050 9,300 2,250 32% Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 5,650 6,950 1,300 23% Middle & Secondary Teachers 6,000 7,050 1,050 18% Accountants & Auditors 2,900 3,500 600 21% Farm, Ranch, & Other Agricultural Mgrs 2,650 3,150 500 19% Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 500 800 300 60% Computer Software Engineers 950 1,250 300 32% Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 650 850 200 31% Graduate Teaching Assistants 650 850 200 31% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-10
Northwest people or 12 percent. The Northwest is the only region with a projected static population from 2009 to 2015; the population is expected to change by just minus 0.04 percent. The 18-35 year-old population, the age group into which most postsecondary students fall, is expected to decline very slightly, by minus 0.8 percent, with greater declines predicted from 2015 to 2020. While the white population is expected to decrease by about 6,167 people from 2009 to 2015, Hispanics will increase by about 4,169 The Northwest region has the highest percentage of whites enrolled in higher education institutions (68.9 percent) in the state and has surpassed 2015 institutional targets and Closing the Gaps allocations for whites and African American students. To reach institutional 2015 targets, only 591 Hispanic students need to be added, but to reach Closing the Gaps allocations, 2,677 additional Hispanic enrollments are needed by 2015. The number of students from the region who enroll at universities (both in- and out-ofregion) has dropped since 2000; however, enrollments of residents at two-year institutions are up 46.3 percent, from 8,130 to 11,896 students. The Northwest has the highest percentage of students who leave the region to attend college (65.4 percent). Of those who leave, more than half attend college in the Metroplex and High Plains regions. Of all of the students who graduated from public high schools in the Northwest in 2001-2003, including those that attended college both within and outside of the region, 15.7 percent earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less. The region boasts the highest percentage of students in the 1998 seventh grade cohort who earned a degree or certificate by FY 2009, at 22 percent. The Coordinating Board recently awarded a P-16 Regional Council Grant to Midwestern State University to support the area s P-16 Council. In addition, the Hendrick Medical Center in Abilene received a Hospital-Based Nursing Education Partnership (HNEP) grant. This grant program is designed to address the state's need for registered nurses by fostering collaboration between hospital and academic partners. The grant to the Medical Center totaled more than $600,000, and the program is projected to enroll 58 nursing students. A-11
Northwest: Regional Map Northwest: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 Hispanic African American White A-12
Northwest: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Northwest Students Attending In-Region Northwest Northwest to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Metroplex 2,668 224 CISCO COLLEGE 3,655 High Plains 1,774 438 VERNON COLLEGE 2,922 Central 1,363 221 WESTERN TEXAS COLLEGE 1,595 West 1,000 TEXAS STATE T. C. WEST TEXAS 1,347 South Texas 341 52 RANGER COLLEGE 544 Gulf Coast 143 18 Southeast 107 Four-Year Public Institutions Upper Rio Grande 89 MIDWESTERN STATE UNIVERSITY 3,030 Upper East 63 21 Independent Institutions ABILENE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY 1,091 HARDIN-SIMMONS UNIVERSITY 1,084 MCMURRY UNIVERSITY 800 HOWARD PAYNE UNIVERSITY 365 Total In Region Enrollment 16,433 Northwest Students Attending Out-of-Region Total 7,548 974 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Northwest Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 White Hispanic African Am Other 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-13
Northwest: Pipeline Data 80% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 74.2% 70% 60% 66.3% 64.5% 57.5% 50% 40% 42.2% 37.4% 30% 26.0% 20% 10% 9.6% 11.4% 0% Af. Am (n=585) Hispanic (n=1,759) White (n=6,156) Northwest: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Northwest 49% 63% Statewide 61% 72% 70% 83% 82% 77% 76% 40% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-14
Northwest: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs 40% Northwest t Statewide 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Northwest 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-15
Northwest: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Genderand Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 60% 56% 54% 40% 44% 46% 52% 48% 56% 56% 44% 44% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-16
Northwest: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Northwest Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & % Allied Health & Total Degrees STEM % STEM Nursing Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 814 878 69 64 8.5% 7.3% 369 403 45.3% 45.9% Associate's 654 810 80 93 12.2% 11.5% 118 244 18.0% 30.1% Bachelor's 704 1,006 33 55 4.7% 5.5% 121 285 17.2% 28.3% Graduate 122 171 8 3 6.6% 1.8% 10 47 8.2% 27.5% Total 2,294 2,865 190 215 8.3% 7.5% 618 979 26.9% 34.2% Northwest: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Northwest Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 258,250 295,300 37,050 14% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Registered Nurses 4,500 5,950 1,450 32% Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 3,700 4,700 1,000 27% Middle & Secondary Teachers 3,950 4,800 850 22% Clergy 1,550 1,900 350 23% Business Operations Specialists, All Other 1,100 1,400 300 27% Accountants & Auditors 1,750 2,050 300 17% Computer Software Engineers 600 800 200 33% Medical & Health Services Mgrs 550 700 150 27% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-17
A-18
Metroplex The Metroplex region, the most populous region in the state, is anticipated to grow at the most rapid pace over the next six years, with a 16.3 percent increase in population. African American population growth, projected at 13.4 percent, is the greatest for the 10 Coordinating Board regions as well. And with a 25.6 percent projected increase in the Hispanic population by 2015, versus a predicted white growth rate of 3.9 percent, the demographic makeup of the region will see a considerable shift. Community and technical college enrollments in the Metroplex grew from 100,944 in 2000 to 175,114 in 2009. With continued growth of the 18-25 year old population predicted, regional community colleges will be under pressure to accommodate many additional students, as will four-year institutions. The University of North Texas at Dallas, which was elevated to university status, enrolls its first freshman class in fall 2010 and will help accommodate predicted growth. Faculty projections for the region, for both community colleges and four-year institutions, anticipate a need for more than 1,000 new faculty positions by 2015, a 17 percent increase over current staffing. Approximately 65 percent of the students from the Metroplex region who attend Texas universities stay within their home region. The University of North Texas (UNT) enrolls the most regional students (25,320), closely followed by The University of Texas at Arlington (21,503 students). The population of four-year institutions in the Metroplex is more predominantly female than in the other large higher education regions. Three universities in the Metroplex region were recently cited in an Education Trust report as having among the smallest gaps in graduation rates between whites and African Americans (UNT) or between whites and Hispanics (Texas Woman s University and The University of Texas at Dallas). The University of Texas at Dallas has also fared well in the Texas Research Incentive Program (TRIP), receiving the second highest disbursement of matching funds with more than $14.6 million expected to be disbursed to the university in 2010 and 2011. Success data for the Metroplex indicate that of the 2001-2003 high school graduates in the region who entered universities immediately after graduation, 58.9 percent earned a bachelor s degree within six years. Seventh grade cohort data indicate that of all public seventh graders in the region in 1998, approximately 18 percent had completed a degree or certificate 12 years later, about the same percentage as the state average. Almost 64 percent of students who graduated from high school in the region in 2008 met TSI standards for preparedness in math, reading, and writing. This is 3 percent higher than the state average. A-19
Primary and secondary teachers and registered nurses are predicted to be the fastest growing occupations that prefer a degree in the Metroplex, followed by computer software engineers. The report from the Commission on Higher Education and Global Competitiveness found that in the Metroplex and Gulf Coast the distributions of earnings compare favorably to the national figures, whereas in most regions of the state, the gaps between high wage and low wage jobs are substantial (p. 22). Several Coordinating Board initiatives to accelerate progress towards Closing the Gaps are taking place in the Metroplex area. The Tarrant County College District was awarded a grant to conduct a Developmental Education Demonstration project, and several area institutions received funds to host summer and intensive bridge programs to help prepare students for college-level work. A Lumina regional meeting focused on student success was held in fall 2010 and the upcoming launch of the Generation Texas Campaign scheduled for the area will ensure that the importance of college participation and success is on the minds of Metroplex community members. A-20
Metroplex: Regional Map Metroplex: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 2,500,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-21
Metroplex: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Metroplex Students Attending In-Region Metroplex Metroplex to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Central 26,956 5,126 COLLIN CO COMM COLL DISTRICT 22,388 Upper East 6,557 1,753 TARRANT CO NORTHEAST CAMPUS 14,285 High Plains 8,062 231 DCCCD RICHLAND COLLEGE 14,198 Gulf Coast 5,167 490 TARRANT CO SOUTHEAST CAMPUS 11,809 Southeast 4,134 TARRANT CO SOUTH CAMPUS 10,666 Northwest 2,169 2,135 TARRANT CO NORTHWEST CAMPUS 10,534 South Texas 1,545 804 DCCCD EASTFIELD COLLEGE 10,081 West 978 DCCCD BROOKHAVEN COLLEGE 9,125 Upper Rio Grande 291 DCCCD NORTH LAKE COLLEGE 8,992 Total 55,859 10,539 DCCCD EL CENTRO COLLEGE 8,720 NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COLLEGE 8,138 DCCCD MOUNTAIN VIEW COLLEGE 7,256 NAVARRO COLLEGE 6,947 DCCCD CEDAR VALLEY COLLEGE 5,367 WEATHERFORD COLLEGE 4,979 GRAYSON COUNTY COLLEGE 4,325 TARRANT CO TRINITY RIVER CAMPUS 3,354 Four-Year Public Institutions UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS 25,320 U. OF TEXAS AT ARLINGTON 21,503 U. OF TEXAS AT DALLAS 10,493 TEXAS WOMAN'S UNIVERSITY 9,455 TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY-COMMERCE 6,473 TARLETON STATE UNIVERSITY 4,380 UNIV. OF NORTH TEXAS AT DALLAS 1,995 Metroplex Students Attending Out-of-Region Metroplex Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 200,000 White African Am 180,000 Hispanic Other 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Independent Institutions SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIVERSITY 6,070 TEXAS CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY 4,274 DALLAS BAPTIST UNIVERSITY 4,051 TEXAS WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY 2,743 UNIVERSITY OF DALLAS 1,398 AUSTIN COLLEGE 830 SOUTHWESTERN ASSEM OF GOD UNIV 766 SOUTHWESTERN ADVENTIST UNIV 425 PARKER COLLEGE OF CHIROPRACTIC 331 PAUL QUINN COLLEGE 101 SOUTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COLLEGE 84 COLLEGE OF ST. THOMAS MORE 21 Total In Region Enrollment 261,877 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-22
Metroplex: Pipeline Data 80% 70% 60% 50% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 71.8% 63.3% 59.0% 56.0% 44.6% 40% 30% 29.5% 23.8% 20% 10% 9.1% 7.0% 0% Af. Am (n=13,005) Hispanic (n=15,295) White (n=42,506) Metroplex: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% 48% Metroplex 49% 64% Statewide 61% 73% 70% 85% 82% 80% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-23
Metroplex: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs (Metroplex) Metroplex Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Metroplex 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-24
Metroplex: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 58% 58% 42% 42% 69% 65% 31% 35% 61% 59% 39% 41% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-25
Metroplex: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Metroplex Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & Nursing % Allied Health & Nursing Total Degrees STEM % STEM Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 2,415 4,212 391 579 16.2% 13.7% 431 976 17.8% 23.2% Associate's 5,577 9,247 425 304 7.6% 3.3% 821 1,327 14.7% 14.4% Bachelor's 11,048 16,719 951 1,107 8.6% 6.6% 1,015 1,138 9.2% 6.8% Graduate 5,737 9,257 977 1,411 17.0% 15.2% 584 758 10.2% 8.2% Total 24,777 39,435 2,744 3,401 11.1% 8.6% 2,851 4,199 11.5% 10.6% Metroplex: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Metroplex High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 3,277,250 3,954,800 677,550 21% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 38,700 56,550 17,850 46% Middle & Secondary Teachers 41,100 57,200 16,100 39% Registered Nurses 41,150 55,100 13,950 34% Computer Software Engineers 25,400 35,050 9,650 38% Accountants & Auditors 29,500 37,250 7,750 26% Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 6,450 10,000 3,550 55% Special Ed Teachers 6,350 9,600 3,250 51% Geological & Petroleum Techns 600 900 300 50% Physician Assistants 1,050 1,550 500 48% Veterinarians 1,050 1,550 500 48% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-26
Upper East The Upper East is the fifth most populous of the state s 10 higher education regions, with just over 1.1 million residents. Statewide, the projected percentage of population growth in the 18-35 age group from 2009 to 2015 is slightly lower than for all age groups, but the Upper East is predicted to see an 8.0 percent increase in the 18-35 age bracket versus 5.5 percent growth overall. The increase in Hispanics in the 18-35 age group is expected to be approximately 36 percent, while the increase in whites in that age group is predicted to be less than 1 percent. Only 13.5 percent of students who graduated from public high schools in the Upper East in FY 2001-2003 earned bachelor s degrees in six years or less. This is below the state average. Enrollment trend data show that for area residents, Hispanic enrollments at two-year colleges nearly tripled from 2000 to 2009 (1,016 to 3,036 students), with African American enrollments also showing substantial increases (3,648 to 5,094 students). Increases in African American residents enrollments at four-year colleges and universities were less substantial during this time, and enrollments of white regional residents at four-year institutions dropped. Of the 45,883 area residents who enrolled in colleges and universities in fall 2009, 22.9 percent left the region (63.5 percent of university enrollees and 4.4 percent of two-year students). The highest number of out-of-region enrollments was at Metroplex area colleges and universities (3,674 students), followed by Central Texas higher education institutions (3,025). All of the two-year colleges in the region had three-year graduation and persistence rates below the statewide average of 38.3 percent for students who required developmental education (based on Texas Success Initiative (TSI) standards). Of all the two-year institutions in the region, Texas State Technical College, Marshall had the highest three-year graduation and persistence rates for students who required developmental education (37.7 percent of those who entered in 2005) and for those who did not require developmental education (64.1 percent of the same cohort). The Upper East has the second lowest university enrollment of any region. The University of Texas at Tyler (UT-Tyler) was the region s only four-year institution until Texas A&M University-Texarkana (TAMUT) was elevated from an upper-level institution upon construction of its own campus. For the cohort of students who started at UT Tyler in 2003, 47.1 percent earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less, with 51.9 percent of the females and 40.9 percent of the males in the cohort earning degrees. Three of the state s five independent, historically black colleges are in the Upper East region. Wiley College, an independent, historically black institution in Marshall, received grant A-27
funding from the Coordinating Board to sponsor an Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID) pilot program on its campus. AVID is designed to facilitate learning and reduce barriers that traditionally limit levels of educational achievement in underprepared, first-time-in-college students. The pilot program s primary focus is to improve student success in postsecondary education. The Upper East region was one of eight locations that hosted the Coordinating Board s transfer success conference in spring 2009. In addition, the Coordinating Board held a Regional Roundtable meeting for East Texas in Tyler in spring 2010. The meeting focused on many aspects of student success. A-28
Upper East: Regional Map Upper East: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 300,000 250,000 200,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 150,000 100,000 50,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-29
Upper East: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Upper East Students Attending In-Region Upper East Upper East to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Metroplex 3,674 606 KILGORE COLLEGE 5,794 Central 3,025 547 NORTHEAST TEXAS COMM COLLEGE 2,785 Southeast 1,906 PANOLA COLLEGE 1,135 Gulf Coast 821 57 PARIS JUNIOR COLLEGE 3,239 High Plains 594 15 TEXARKANA COLLEGE 3,177 Northwest 138 229 TEXAS STATE T. C. MARSHALL 877 South Texas 201 92 TRINITY VALLEY COMM COLLEGE 3,904 West 105 TYLER JUNIOR COLLEGE 9,244 Upper Rio Grande 29 Four-Year Public Institutions TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY-TEXARKANA 1,113 U. OF TEXAS AT TYLER 4,122 Independent Institutions EAST TEXAS BAPTIST UNIVERSITY 542 JACKSONVILLE COLLEGE 259 JARVIS CHRISTIAN COLLEGE 98 LETOURNEAU UNIVERSITY 883 LON MORRIS COLLEGE 325 TEXAS COLLEGE 298 WILEY COLLEGE 225 Total In Region Enrollment 38,020 Upper East Students Attending Out-of-Region Total 10,493 1,546 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Upper East Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 White Hispanic African Am Other 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-30
Upper East: Pipeline Data 80% 70% 60% 50% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 71.7% 71.5% 60.5% 56.5% 49.6% 40% 30% 20% 10% 32.5% 10.7% 9.2% 23.3% 0% Af. Am (n=3,042) Hispanic (n=1,133) White (n=10,153) Upper East: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Upper East 54% 49% 47% Statewide 61% 63% 70% 77% 82% 70% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-31
Upper East: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs Upper East Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Upper East 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-32
Upper East: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 60% 60% 40% 40% 30% Male 70% Female 61% 61% 59% 39% 39% 41% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-33
Upper East: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Upper East Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & % Allied Health & Total Degrees STEM % STEM Nursing Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 2,135 2,982 354 485 16.6% 16.3% 577 786 27.0% 26.4% Associate's 2,250 3,460 253 356 11.2% 10.3% 543 822 24.1% 23.8% Bachelor's 974 1,575 84 134 8.6% 8.5% 155 256 15.9% 16.3% Graduate 205 473 12 21 5.9% 4.4% 7 32 3.4% 6.8% Total 5,564 8,490 703 996 12.6% 11.7% 1,282 1,896 23.0% 22.3% Upper East: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Upper East Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 472,100 555,650 83,550 18% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Registered Nurses 8,000 10,850 2,850 36% Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 7,150 9,150 2,000 28% Middle & Secondary Teachers 7,650 9,350 1,700 22% Accountants & Auditors 3,050 3,650 600 20% Business O perations Specialists, A ll Other 1,950 2,500 550 28% Paralegals & Legal A ssistants 500 700 200 40% Network & Computer Systems 600 800 200 33% Pharmacists 750 1,000 250 33% Computer Systems Analysts 950 1,250 300 32% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-34
Southeast The Southeast is the third least populous region in the state. Approximately 39,500 students attend the region s four-year institutions (Lamar University and Stephen F. Austin State University) or two-year institutions (Lamar-Orange, Lamar-Port Arthur, Lamar Institute of Technology, and Angelina College). More than 20 percent of the students who reside in the region attend a community or technical college out of the region, the highest percentage of out-of-region enrollment in the state for students attending two-year institutions. The Southeast is one of five regions predicted to have a decline in white 18-35 year-old population over the next six years. The Hispanic 18-35 population is projected to grow the most at 30.9 percent, followed by the African American population at 7.3 percent. Although African American enrollments were more than double Hispanic enrollments, and the Southeast had the highest percentage of African Americans enrolled in the state (23 percent), by 2015 the differences in percentages for the three large ethnicities are expected to lessen. The region has already surpassed Closing the Gaps by 2015 allocations for African Americans. It is on track to meet the institutions targets by 2015 for Hispanics, but the region will need to accelerate enrollment of Hispanic students to meet Closing the Gaps allocations. Approximately one-half of the region s 2001, 2002, and 2003 high school graduates went immediately on to college. Of those students, 9.5 percent who started at a two-year college earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less as did 47 percent of those who started at a university. Overall, 14.8 percent of the high school graduates earned a bachelor s degree from those cohorts. With the lowest six-year rate of transfer from a community or technical college to a four-year university (17 percent for a 2003 cohort tracked to 2009), the Southeast needs to explore opportunities for improving transfer success. There is a focus on success for high school students interested in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields at the Math, Science, and Technology Teacher Preparation Academy at Stephen F. Austin State University, which is overseen by the Coordinating Board and funded by a state grant. STEM field data show that while there has been a slight increase in certificates and degrees awarded in STEM fields in the region, the overall percentage of STEM field awards has decreased from 11 to 9 percent from 2000 to 2009. The occupations adding the most jobs and preferring an associate s degree or higher will be teachers at the K-12 levels, registered nurses, and construction managers. Special education teacher is the occupation predicted to have the fastest growth, with 50 percent more needed by 2016 from the 2006 level. A-35
Southeast Texas: Regional Map Southeast Texas: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 250,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-36
Southeast: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Southeast Students Attending Out-of-Region Southeast Students Attending Out-of-Region Southeast Southeast to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Gulf Coast 3,277 137 ANGELINA COLLEGE 5,004 Central 2,660 268 LAMAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 2,853 Upper East 1,345 331 LAMAR STATE COLL-ORANGE 1,896 Metroplex 615 157 LAMAR STATE COLL-PORT ARTHUR 2,098 South Texas 279 55 High Plains 193 12 Four-Year Public Institutions Northwest 55 38 LAMAR UNIVERSITY 7,378 West 48 STEPHEN F. AUSTIN STATE UNIV 3,400 Upper Rio Grande 38 Total In Region Enrollment 22,629 Total 8,510 998 Southeast Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 20,000 White African Am Hispanic Other 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-37
Southeast: Pipeline Data 80% 70% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 70.4% 68.5% 60% 50% 43.2% 58.7% 52.3% 40% 33.2% 30% 20% 10% 8.3% 11.4% 21.2% 0% Af. Am (n=2,985) Hispanic (n=823) White (n=6,885) Southeast: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Southeast 62% 49% 48% Statewide 61% 69% 70% 83% 82% 78% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-38
Southeast: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs Southeast Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Southeast 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-39
Southeast: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 61% 60% 39% 40% 67% 66% 62% 33% 34% 38% 45% 55% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-40
Southeast: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Southeast Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & Nursing % Allied Health & Nursing Total Degrees STEM % STEM Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 509 803 68 49 13.4% 6.1% 219 370 43.0% 46.1% Associate's 1,002 1,060 221 161 22.1% 15.2% 294 366 29.3% 34.5% Bachelor's 2,707 2,958 154 202 5.7% 6.8% 200 226 7.4% 7.6% Graduate 668 2,013 99 203 14.8% 10.1% 59 65 8.8% 3.2% Total 4,886 6,834 542 615 11.1% 9.0% 772 1,027 15.8% 15.0% Southeast: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Southeast Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 307,450 363,150 55,700 18% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 5,050 6,900 1,850 37% Middle & Secondary Teachers 5,350 7,000 1,650 31% Registered Nurses 4,700 6,100 1,400 30% Construction Mgrs 2,250 2,900 650 29% Accountants & Auditors 1,950 2,400 450 23% Special Ed Teachers 800 1,200 400 50% Ed A dministrators, Elementary/Secondary 600 800 200 33% Business O perations Specialists, A ll Other 1,300 1,700 400 31% Computer Software Engineers 650 850 200 31% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-41
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Gulf Coast The Gulf Coast has the second largest population in the state. With more than 5.8 million residents and predicted population growth of more than 14 percent between 2009 and 2015, the region s many higher education institutions need to be prepared to accommodate increased demand. Gulf Coast higher education institutions enrolled the highest number of African American students in the state in fall 2009. The state s two historically black public universities, Prairie View A&M University and Texas Southern University, are located in the region. About 37.8 percent of African American students who were at public universities were male, as were only 33.7 percent of the community and technical college African American students. To meet Accelerated Plan goals for enrolling more African American males in the state by 2015, colleges and universities in the Gulf Coast must prioritize the recruitment and retention of African American male students. The Gulf Coast region boasts the highest percentage of public high school graduates in FY 2009 who enrolled immediately in higher education (54.9 percent). The six-year baccalaureate graduation rate for FY 2001, 2002, and 2003 public high school graduates from the region was 19 percent, the highest rate for any region. The Gulf Coast has a large percentage of students attending a four-year university who enroll out-of-region (44 percent), with the majority of those students (43,441) enrolling in Central Texas public and private universities. To meet Closing the Gaps allocation targets by 2015, the region must double the number of Hispanics enrolled in higher education. One-year persistence rates for the area are similar to the statewide average, but the region has the second lowest six-year baccalaureate graduation rate for students enrolled in regional universities (36.4 percent). While high school graduates from the region have higher-than-average enrollment and graduation rates, improving the long-term persistence and success rates for the students who enroll in Gulf Coast institutions should be a common goal of institutions and their community partners. The P-16 Council in the greater Houston area has been one of the most active in the state. The Houston Pathways Project, which the P-16 Council helped establish, has completed the data sharing and team formation process. Faculty teams from several area school districts and institutions of higher education will be developing activities to increase successful secondary-to-postsecondary transitions for area students. The project is being supported by a grant from Houston Endowment. With its large, diverse student population and extensive higher education opportunities, the Gulf Coast has been the location for several Coordinating Board sponsored programs and grants. For example, with grant support from Lumina Foundation for Education, the Board hosted a regional meeting in Pasadena in summer 2010to focus on student success; the A-43
Generation Texas campaign is scheduled for a fall 2010 launch in the Houston area; the Lone Star College System and San Jacinto Community College District received funds to participate in developmental education demonstration projects; and several community colleges in the region were provided funds for summer bridge programs to help prepare students for college-level coursework. The Texas Workforce Commission projects that the Gulf Coast will add 662,950 new jobs by 2016. Fast-growing occupations in the Gulf Coast preferring a postsecondary degree include three in medical fields. Other fast-growing occupations can be found by examining the regional tables. A-44
Gulf Coast: Regional Map Gulf Coast: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 2,000,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 1,600,000 1,200,000 800,000 400,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-45
Gulf Coast: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Gulf Coast Students Attending In-Region Gulf Coast Northwest to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Central 38,846 4,595 ALVIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE 5,057 South Texas 8,279 1,696 BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE 3,836 Metroplex 6,175 2,119 COLLEGE OF THE MAINLAND COMMUN 3,893 Southeast 6,733 GALVESTON COLLEGE 1,906 High Plains 3,657 51 HOUSTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE 37,756 Upper East 781 1,483 LEE COLLEGE 6,122 Northwest 406 587 LONE STAR COLLEGE - CY-FAIR 13,191 West 416 LONE STAR COLLEGE - KINGWOOD 8,008 Upper Rio Grande 209 LONE STAR COLLEGE - MONTGOMERY 9,462 Total 65,502 10,531 LONE STAR COLLEGE - N. HARRIS 11,721 LONE STAR COLLEGE - TOMBALL 8,996 SAN JACINTO COLLEGE CEN CAMPUS 13,448 SAN JACINTO COLLEGE N CAMPUS 5,911 SAN JACINTO COLLEGE S CAMPUS 9,298 WHARTON COUNTY JUNIOR COLLEGE 6,427 Four-Year Public Institutions PRAIRIE VIEW A&M UNIVERSITY 5,007 SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY 10,875 TEXAS A&M UNIV AT GALVESTON 830 TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY 6,564 U. OF HOUSTON-CLEAR LAKE 6,413 U. OF HOUSTON-DOWNTOWN 11,979 UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON 29,244 Gulf Coast Students Attending Out-of-Region 200,000 160,000 120,000 Gulf Coast Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 80,000 40,000 White Hispanic African Am Other Independent Institutions UNIVERSITY OF ST THOMAS 2,567 HOUSTON BAPTIST UNIVERSITY 2,352 RICE UNIVERSITY 1,989 SOUTH TEXAS COLLEGE OF LAW 914 TEXAS CHIROPRACTIC COLLEGE 152 Total In Region Enrollment 223,918 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-46
Gulf Coast: Pipeline Data 80% 70% 60% 50% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 71.4% 64.0% 63.3% 56.5% 46.9% 40% 30% 34.7% 27.6% 20% 10% 10.2% 8.5% 0% Af. Am (n=14,355) Hispanic (n=21,459) White (n=31,419) Gulf Coast: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Gulf Coast 64% 52% 49% Statewide 61% 72% 70% 83% 82% 78% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-47
Gulf Coast: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs Gulf Coast Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Gulf Coast 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-48
Gulf Coast: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 54% 56% 46% 44% 38% Male 62% Female 66% 34% 59% 58% 41% 42% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-49
Gulf Coast: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Gulf Coast Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & Nursing % Allied Health & Nursing Total Degrees STEM % STEM Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 4,069 5,170 762 822 18.7% 15.9% 768 1,314 18.9% 25.4% Associate's 4,516 9,162 430 501 9.5% 5.5% 886 1,703 19.6% 18.6% Bachelor's 9,648 13,958 1,052 1,121 10.9% 8.0% 641 905 6.6% 6.5% Graduate 4,903 6,808 442 573 9.0% 8.4% 250 488 5.1% 7.2% Total 23,136 35,098 2,686 3,017 11.6% 8.6% 2,545 4,410 11.0% 12.6% Gulf Coast: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Gulf Coast High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 2,746,050 3,409,000 662,950 24% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 37,600 56,900 19,300 51% Middle & Secondary T eachers 40,050 57,600 17,550 44% Registered Nurses 37,100 54,650 17,550 47% Accountants & Auditors 25,650 32,900 7,250 28% Computer Software Engineers 14,350 20,150 5,800 40% Network Systems & Data Communications 4,100 6,550 2,450 60% Physician A ssistants 950 1,500 550 58% Obstetricians & Gynecologists 700 1,100 400 57% Cardiovascular Technologists & Techns 650 1,000 350 54% Special E d Teachers 6,250 9,600 3,350 54% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-50
Central Texas Central Texas has the most comprehensive program array of any region in the state, primarily because the region is home to the state s two research universities [The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin) and Texas A&M University (TAMU)] and Texas State University-San Marcos (TxSU-SM). In addition, Austin, Blinn, Central Texas, Hill, McLennan, and Temple Community Colleges provide valuable workforce training, lower-division academic instruction, and continuing education for residents of the region. In May 2009, Texas A&M University Central Texas became a stand-alone university. Located in Killeen, this formerly upper-level system center currently serves more than 2,500 students and offers classes in several locations, including Fort Hood. In August 2010, Austin Community College expanded its reach by adding a new campus in the fast-growing Round Rock community of Central Texas, as did TxSU-SM and Texas A&M University System Health Science Center. The population in Central Texas is predicted to grow 12.6 percent by 2015, with a more modest 6.8 percent growth anticipated for the 18 to 35 age group. Regional enrollments in higher education have increased rapidly since 2000. Central Texas has more university students enrolled at its regional institutions than any other region (134,532 students). The region also boasts a large two-year college population: 92,460 students were enrolled in fall 2009. Hispanic students make up 17.9 percent of all Central Texas enrollments, with 16.9 percent at public universities, 20.2 percent at community and technical colleges, and 15.4 percent at independent universities. Students enrolled in Central Texas institutions of higher education are some of the least likely to receive Pell assistance for college. The percentage of university students in the region receiving Pell is the lowest in the state at 20.7 percent, and the percentage of two-year students, at 33.7 percent, is second lowest. Community college enrollments for students from the region grew from 47,507 students in 2000 to 70,730 in 2009. Substantial growth in two- and four-year enrollments for regional residents was seen in all of the large ethnic categories, with the greatest growth observed in Hispanic enrollments (90 percent) and African American enrollments (89 percent). Students who graduated from high school in Central Texas and enrolled at a four-year university or college were the most likely to earn a bachelor s degree in six years or less (62.1 percent). Central Texas also had the highest percent of students who do not enroll immediately after high school but still earn a bachelor s degree within six years. A-51
Central Texas: Regional Map Central Texas: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 1,000,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-52
Central Texas: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Central Texas Students Attending Out-of-Region Central Texas Central Texas to: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Metroplex 7,913 1,272 AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE 29,310 Gulf Coast 4,549 393 BLINN COLLEGE 8,277 South Texas 3,735 1,075 CENTRAL TEXAS COLLEGE 8,979 High Plains 2,520 73 HILL COLLEGE 933 Southeast 1,266 MCLENNAN COMMUNITY COLLEGE 8,700 Northwest 632 749 TEMPLE COLLEGE 5,418 Upper East 576 366 TEXAS STATE T. C. WACO 5,298 West 939 Upper Rio Grande 239 Four-Year Public Institutions Total 22,369 3,928 TEXAS A&M UNIV-CENTRAL TEXAS 1,811 TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY 8,066 TEXAS STATE UNIV - SAN MARCOS 12,439 U. OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN 11,043 Independent Institutions BAYLOR UNIVERSITY 3,447 CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY TEXAS 1,050 HUSTON-TILLOTSON UNIVERSITY 480 SOUTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY 326 ST. EDWARD'S UNIVERSITY 2,779 UNIV OF MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR 1,706 Total In Region Enrollment 110,062 Central Texas Students Attending Out-of-Region Central Texas Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 80,000 White African Am Hispanic Other 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-53
Central Texas: Pipeline Data 80% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 75.0% 70% 60% 61.8% 58.7% 61.2% 50% 45.6% 40% 30% 20% 10% 32.1% 9.7% 8.1% 26.9% 0% Af. Am (n=4,643) Hispanic (n=7,422) White (n=17,385) Central Texas: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Central Texas 69% 49% 48% 61% Statewide 77% 70% 86% 82% 82% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-54
Central Texas: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs Central Texas Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Central Texas 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-55
Central Texas: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 49% 51% 54% 46% 60% 60% 40% 40% 54% 56% 46% 44% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-56
Central Texas: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Central Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Total Degrees STEM % STEM Allied Health & Nursing % Allied Health & Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 1,739 2,456 188 288 10.8% 11.7% 560 798 32.2% 32.5% Associate's 3,487 5,021 733 720 21.0% 14.3% 613 897 17.6% 17.9% Bachelor's 18,759 22,206 3,319 3,278 17.7% 14.8% 403 463 2.1% 2.1% Graduate 6,734 8,461 1,497 1,959 22.2% 23.2% 183 192 2.7% 2.3% Total 30,719 38,144 5,737 6,245 18.7% 16.4% 1,759 2,350 5.7% 6.2% Central Texas: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Central Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All O ccupations 1,292,250 1,582,450 290,200 22% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 17,000 25,100 8,100 48% Middle & Secondary T eachers 18,100 25,350 7,250 40% Registered Nurses 16,800 23,050 6,250 37% Computer Software Engineers 11,650 15,700 4,050 35% Accountants & Auditors 10,700 13,300 2,600 24% Network Systems & Data Communications 2,350 3,800 1,450 62% Special E d T eachers 2,750 4,250 1,500 55% Occupational T herapists 600 900 300 50% Art, Drama, & Music T eachers, 900 1,300 400 44% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-57
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South Texas The South Texas region covers a large geographic area and includes several major urban centers as well as many rural communities. The highest density of higher education institutions in the region is in San Antonio. Texas A&M University - San Antonio, located in the southern portion of that city, was established as a stand-alone campus in May 2009 and adds to the educational opportunities available for South Texas students. The population of South Texas is predominantly Hispanic. In 2009, of the 1.2 million residents in the 18 to 35 age bracket, 73 percent were estimated to be Hispanic. In the year 2015, the projected population is 75 percent Hispanic, 4 percent African American, and 19 percent white. South Texas high school graduates are more likely to enroll at a community or technical college than graduates from any other region, with 30.4 percent of FY 2009 public secondary graduates enrolling at a two-year institution (22.8 percent enrolled at a university). College and university enrollment rates for students who graduate from a South Texas public high school have improved considerably since 2000. With 53.2 percent of the FY 2009 high school graduates enrolling, South Texas is second to the Gulf Coast Region for the percent of graduates who continue into higher education. The improvement in high school to college enrollment from 45 percent in 2000 to current levels is the second highest rate of increase for the state, behind the Upper Rio Grande region. Emphasis on college readiness, the first Pathways program, active P-16 Councils, and large numbers of students participating in dual credit opportunities may be some of the reasons for the increase. But South Texas must work harder to ensure that its students have the support and tools they need to persist and succeed once enrolled in higher education. Data show that 43.1 percent of the students who enrolled in a university in the South Texas region in fall 2003 earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less. This is lower than the statewide average of 55.9 percent. The six-year baccalaureate graduation rate for students who graduated from a South Texas public high school in FY 2001 to FY 2003 and earned a degree anywhere in the state within six years is approximately 50 percent a lower success rate than seven of the state s other nine regions. Hopefully progress seen in enrollments in the region will translate to higher success rates. The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), the largest university in the region, is working to help students graduate in a timely manner through its Late Intervention Program. UTSA was recognized in 2009 with a Coordinating Board Star Award for this program, which is based on outreach to students who have exceeded their four-year graduation time, in an attempt to help them earn their bachelor s degree within a five- or six-year time frame. A-59
Graduation rates at the university were shown to improve for students who participated in the program. The South Texas region is one of the few regions which saw both an increase in the number and total percent of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) awards from 2000 to 2009 (includes certificates, associate s, bachelor s, and graduate degrees). Since South Texas had one of the lowest STEM percentages of any region in 2000, this is encouraging. The number of STEM degrees and awards grew from 1,419 (8.3 percent of total) to 2,505 (8.7 percent of total). Growth in the number of awards was observed at all levels, while growth in the percent of total awards was seen at the certificate and graduate levels only. The percentage of allied health and nursing degrees dropped during this time from 17.1 percent to 15.3 percent of awards. Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi has been funded by the Coordinating Board to host College and Career Readiness Initiative Faculty Collaborative activities for science. A symposium, designed to provide faculty who prepare pre-service teachers with the latest information and resources regarding the state s College and Career Readiness Standards, was hosted in San Antonio in 2010. A-60
South Texas: Regional Map South Texas: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 1,600,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 1,200,000 800,000 400,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-61
South Texas: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education South Texas Students Attending In-Region South Texas South Texas To: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges Central 23,719 2,576 ALAMO CCD NE LAKEVIEW COLLEGE 555 High Plains 2,229 1,639 ALAMO CCD NW VISTA COLLEGE 14,183 Metroplex 2,704 1,041 COASTAL BEND COLLEGE 4,106 Gulf Coast 2,424 473 DEL MAR COLLEGE 11,752 Northwest 354 689 LAREDO COMMUNITY COLLEGE 8,971 West 875 ALAMO CCD PALO ALTO COLLEGE 8,228 Southeast 822 ALAMO CCD SAN ANTONIO COLLEGE 23,018 Upper Rio Grande 387 SOUTH TEXAS COLLEGE 26,187 Upper East 176 174 SOUTHWEST TEXAS JUNIOR COLLEGE 5,681 Total 33,690 6,592 ALAMO CCD ST. PHILIP'S COLLEGE 10,445 TEXAS SOUTHMOST COLLEGE 12,842 TEXAS STATE T. C. HARLINGEN 5,903 VICTORIA COLLEGE, THE 3,768 Four-Year Public Institutions SUL ROSS RIO GRANDE COLLEGE 1,001 TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL UNIV 6,029 TEXAS A&M UNIV-CORPUS CHRISTI 6,709 TEXAS A&M UNIV-KINGSVILLE 4,514 TEXAS A&M UNIV-SAN ANTONIO 2,322 U. OF HOUSTON-VICTORIA 906 U. OF TEXAS AT BROWNSVILLE 6,217 U. OF TEXAS AT SAN ANTONIO 19,092 U. OF TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN 17,393 Independent Institutions OUR LADY OF THE LAKE UNIV/SA 1,957 SCHREINER UNIVERSITY 697 ST. MARY'S UNIVERSITY 2,627 TEXAS LUTHERAN UNIVERSITY 813 TRINITY UNIVERSITY 462 UNIV OF THE INCARNATE WORD 5,480 Total In Region Enrollment 211,858 South Texas Students Attending Out-of-Region 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 South Texas Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 White Hispanic African Am Other 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-62
South Texas: Pipeline Data 80% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 73.8% 70% 60% 50% 63.7% 49.9% 65.6% 46.2% 62.5% 40% 30% 26.9% 20% 10% 0% 11.1% 12.5% Af. Am (n=2,466) Hispanic (n=43,436) White (n=15,009) South Texas: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% South Texas 52% 50% 49% 61% Statewide 61% 70% 74% 82% 67% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-63
South Texas: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs South Texas Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% South Texas 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-64
South Texas: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 53% 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 47% 43% 42% 42% 42% 42% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-65
South Texas: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the South Texas Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & Nursing % Allied Health & Nursing Total Degrees STEM % STEM Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 2,598 4,231 205 572 7.9% 13.5% 1,092 1,372 42.0% 32.4% Associate's 4,642 8,644 484 659 10.4% 7.6% 1,041 1,608 22.4% 18.6% Bachelor's 7,051 11,933 581 861 8.2% 7.2% 633 1,014 9.0% 8.5% Graduate 2,725 4,046 149 413 5.5% 10.2% 147 410 5.4% 10.1% Total 17,016 28,854 1,419 2,505 8.3% 8.7% 2,913 4,404 17.1% 15.3% South Texas: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, South Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 1,815,500 2,227,000 411,500 23% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 33,800 47,200 13,400 40% Middle & Secondary Teachers 36,150 47,900 11,750 33% Registered Nurses 30,700 41,850 11,150 36% Business O perations Specialists, A ll Other 10,200 13,350 3,150 31% Accountants & Auditors 12,300 15,300 3,000 24% Obstetricians & Gynecologists 500 800 300 60% Network Systems & Data Communications 2,000 3,100 1,100 55% Biological Science T eachers, Postsecondary 1,100 1,600 500 45% Physical T herapist A ssistants 800 1,150 350 44% Dental Hygienists 1,400 2,000 600 43% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-66
West Texas According to population estimates, West Texas is the least populous of the Texas higher education regions. The region is projected to have slight growth in its 18-35 age bracket between 2009 and 2015, adding approximately 5,000 residents. The vast majority of the growth in this age group will be in the Hispanic population which is predicted to grow by 7,700 people by 2015. The African American population is predicted to grow by nearly 600 individuals, and the white population is expected to decline by approximately 3,600 individuals. Community college opportunities in West Texas are available at Howard College, Midland College, and Odessa College. Midland College is one of three community colleges in the state approved to grant Bachelor of Applied Technology degrees. Angelo State University and The University of Texas of the Permian Basin offer area residents the opportunity to earn bachelor s and graduate degrees in several fields, including many that have been identified as high demand for the state. In the West Texas region, the high school graduation rate was about the state average for students who entered seventh grade in FY 1998, but the percentage of students who enrolled in higher education was just 42 percent. Although this is about one percentage point higher than 1995 cohort enrollment rates for West Texas seventh graders, it is far below the state average. One possible explanation may be the high number of job opportunities in the oil industry in West Texas at the time students in the cohort were graduating from high school. In 2009, the percent of West Texas high school graduates who enrolled in public higher education was just slightly below the state average. As with most of the other regions of the state, West Texas residents who attend fouryear institutions are most likely to attend within the region. However, 43.6 percent do leave the area to study at universities in other regions. Of the 6,809 college and university students who enrolled out-of-region in fall 2009, 36 percent attended institutions in the High Plains region, and 27 percent were enrolled in Central Texas. West Texas had the highest percent of students from any region who enrolled in fall 2003 and had transferred from a two-year college to a four-year institution by 2009 (36 percent). Of students who started at a university in the region in fall 2003, 38.7 percent earned a bachelor s degree in six years or less, including 43.9 percent of the white enrollees, 30.4 percent of the African American enrollees, and 29.0 percent of the Hispanic enrollees. A grant for an Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID) post-secondary pilot project was awarded to The University of Texas of the Permian Basin in 2010 by the Coordinating Board. AVID is designed to facilitate learning and promote achievement for underprepared, first-time-in-college students. Underprepared students at Midland College A-67
benefit from a Coordinating Board grant awarded for bridging programs designed to decrease the need for developmental education and increase student persistence and success. A-68
West Texas: Regional Map West Texas: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 Hispanic African American White A-69
West Texas: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education West Texas Students Attending In-Region West Texas Students Attending Out-of-Region West Texas West Texas To: Public Private Two-Year Public Colleges High Plains 2,280 156 HOWARD COLLEGE 3,600 Central 1,677 160 MIDLAND COLLEGE 5,156 Metroplex 623 218 ODESSA COLLEGE 4,766 Northwest 327 318 SOUTHWEST COLLEGIATE INSTITUTE 37 South Texas 364 80 Upper Rio Grande 323 Four-Year Public Institutions Gulf Coast 127 19 ANGELO STATE UNIVERSITY 3,110 Southeast 76 U. OF TEXAS-PERMIAN BASIN 2,791 Upper East 48 13 Total In Region Enrollment 19,460 Total 5,845 964 West Texas Residents Enrolled by Inst. Type and Student Ethnicity, Fall 2009 16,000 White African Am Hispanic Other 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 2000 2009 2000 2009 Two-Year Insts. Four-Year Insts. A-70
West Texas: Pipeline Data 80% 70% 60% 50% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 73.0% 62.6% 56.7% 52.7% 40% 30% 29.6% 32.5% 23.2% 20% 10% 0% 6.9% 7.6% Af. Am (n=494) Hispanic (n=4,193) White (n=4,558) West Texas: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% West Texas 64% 50% 49% 61% Statewide 72% 70% 85% 82% 81% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-71
West Texas: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs 40% West Texas Statewide 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% West Texas 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-72
West Texas: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 57% 59% 43% 41% Male Female 49% 51% 55% 45% 60% 62% 40% 38% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-73
West Texas: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the West Texas Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & % Allied Health & Total Degrees STEM % STEM Nursing Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 615 647 32 91 5.2% 14.1% 152 210 24.7% 32.5% Associate's 814 1,029 64 83 7.9% 8.1% 255 374 31.3% 36.3% Bachelor's 1,120 1,365 80 64 7.1% 4.7% 24 47 2.1% 3.4% Graduate 215 329 5 2 2.3% 0.6% 5 25 2.3% 7.6% Total 2,764 3,370 181 240 6.5% 7.1% 436 656 15.8% 19.5% West Texas: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, West Texas High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 256,700 304,550 47,850 19% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 3,750 5,300 1,550 41% Middle & Secondary Teachers 3,950 5,350 1,400 35% Registered Nurses 3,900 5,150 1,250 32% Accountants & Auditors 2,250 2,700 450 20% Business O perations Specialists, A ll Other 1,150 1,450 300 26% Teachers & Instructors, All Other 1,150 1,450 300 26% Computer Software Engineers 500 700 200 40% Special Ed Teachers 650 900 250 38% Computer Systems Analysts 700 950 250 36% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-74
Upper Rio Grande The City of El Paso anchors the Upper Rio Grande region. Students who reside in the area are more likely to stay in the region for higher education than students anywhere else in the state. This is probably a function of the geographic location of the city and surrounding areas, which are located a substantial distance from other urban centers. In fall 2009, only 14.2 percent of Upper Rio Grande students were enrolled in universities outside of the region, and 1.9 percent of the area s students were enrolled in out-of-region community colleges. Most of the Upper Rio Grande enrollments, both two-year and four-year, are at El Paso Community College District campuses (26,068 students in fall 2009) and The University of Texas at El Paso (20,977 students in fall 2009). Sul Ross State University, located in the eastern part of the region, enrolled 2,018 students in fall 2009. The region also boasts two medical facilities: the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center Regional Academic Health Center, which includes a recently opened medical school, and a University of Texas Health Science Center Houston Teaching Site. Data on student preparedness based on Texas Success Initiative (TSI) results show that students who graduated from Upper Rio Grande public high schools in FY 2008 tended to be less prepared in reading and in math than students from other regions of the state, with 63 percent meeting statewide math standards by the end of the first semester of college enrollment and 63 percent meeting reading standards during this time frame (state rates for these measures are 70 percent and 76 percent, respectively). Upper Rio Grande high school graduates do better than the statewide average for meeting TSI standards in writing, with 85 percent meeting the standard for the region versus 82 percent statewide. Readiness levels by economic status data show that 59 percent of FY 2008 Upper Rio Grande public high school graduates who enrolled in college were economically disadvantaged as determined by free or reduced lunch status in high school. Only 30 percent of the state s high school graduates who enrolled in higher education were economically disadvantaged. Federal Pell grant award rates for students attending a two-year college or four-year university in the Upper Rio Grande were the highest of any higher education region for both types of institutions. High school graduates from the Upper Rio Grande are enrolling in college at increasingly higher rates. The region led the state for the percentage increase in the number of high school graduates who enroll in higher education, going from 41.8 percent (the lowest of any region in 2000) to 52.9 percent in 2009 (the third highest). Regional stakeholders have emphasized developing a college-going culture in this area. Unfortunately, success measures in the Upper Rio Grande lag behind those seen in other regions. For example, the percent of university enrollees in the region who earn a bachelor s degree in six years or less is the lowest in the A-75
state with only 34.3 percent of all students achieving that status versus 55.9 percent statewide. The Upper Rio Grande area has only a 21 percent rate of transfer for students who enrolled in a community college in fall 2003 and had transferred to a four-year institution by FY 2009. This is lower than all regions except the Southeast. Several initiatives to improve college readiness, enrollment, and success rates are being implemented in the Upper Rio Grande. The teacher and faculty team development phase of a recently launched Coordinating Board Pathways Project in El Paso is now in progress, with the data collection phase nearing completion. El Paso was also one of eight sites where the statewide Transfer Success Conference was held in spring 2009. The University of Texas at El Paso hosts a Math, Science, and Technology Teacher Preparation (MSTTP) Academy; the area received a Hospital Based Nursing Education Program Grant; and several high school-to-college initiatives, such as bridge programs and P-16 Council activities, have been funded in the area. Finally, the Community College Developmental Education Initiative provides resources to strengthen developmental education efforts in public two-year institutions around the state. El Paso Community College (EPCC) serves as the fiscal agent in awarding competitive grants to public two-year institutions. EPCC is guided by the Developmental Education Initiative Policy Team led by the Texas Association of Community Colleges. A-76
Upper Rio Grande: Regional Map Upper Rio Grande: Population Projections by Age and Ethnicity 300,000 250,000 200,000 Population Estimates and Projections from Texas State Data Center, Ages 0-17 and 18-35 150,000 100,000 50,000 Hispanic African American White 0 2000 2009 2015 2020 2000 2009 2015 2020 0-17 18-35 A-77
Upper Rio Grande: Regional Residents' Enrollments in Higher Education Upper Rio Grande Students Attending In-Region Upper Rio Grande Students Attending Out-of-Region Two-Year Public Colleges Upper Rio Grande To: Public Private EL PASO COMMUNITY COLLEGE DIST 24,388 Central 1,492 220 South Texas 434 420 Four-Year Public Institutions High Plains 621 25 SUL ROSS STATE UNIVERSITY 936 Metroplex 409 149 U. OF TEXAS AT EL PASO 17,465 West 284 Total In Region Enrollment 42,789 Gulf Coast 164 39 Northwest 53 130 Upper East 13 31 Southeast 43 Total 3,513 1,014 Upper Rio Grande Residents Enrolled by Public Inst. Type & Ethnicity, Fall 2000 & 2009 30,000 Other Hispanic African Am White 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Two-Year Insts. 2000 Two-Year Insts. 2009 Four-Year Insts. 2000 Four-Year Insts. 2009
Upper Rio Grande: Pipeline Data 70% 1998 7th Grade Cohort Tracked through FY 2009 Higher Education HS Graduate Enrolled in HE HE Graduate 66.0% 63.9% 60% 55.4% 52.6% 57.1% 50% 45.6% 40% 30% 20% 12.9% 18.2% 10% 6.0% 0% Af. Am (n=316) Hispanic (n=10,078) White (n=1,654) Upper Rio Grande: Student Preparedness High School Graduates' Enrollment in Higher Education and TSI Achievement Rate 100% 80% 60% Upper Rio Grande Statewide 70% 61% 63% 49% 49% 48% 85% 82% 63% 76% 40% 20% 0% Enrolled in Higher Ed Met All Areas Met Math Met Writing Met Reading A-79
Upper Rio Grande: Student Success by Ethnicity and Gender Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public CTCs Upper Rio Grande Statewide 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year 0% 6-year 10-year Regional Residents' Graduation Rates (Bacc+) for Fall 1999 First Time Undergraduate Cohorts at Public Universities 80% Upper Rio Grande 80% Statewide 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6-year White female 10-year White male 20% 10% 0% 6-year 10-year Afr Amer Female Afr Amer male Hispanic female Hispanic male A-80
Upper Rio Grande: Institutional Enrollments Percent of Public Higher Ed Enrollment by Gender and Ethnicity, Fall 2009 Male Female 53% 57% 47% 43% 60% 40% 54% 57% 58% 46% 43% 42% 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr 4yr 2yr White African American Hispanic A-81
Upper Rio Grande: Enrollment in Critical Fields Degrees Awarded in the Upper Rio Grande Region 2000 and 2009 Total, STEM Fields, and Allied Health & Nursing Fields Allied Health & % Allied Health & Total Degrees STEM % STEM Nursing Nursing Degree Level 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 Certificate 247 446 12 70 4.9% 15.7% 102 128 41.3% 28.7% Associate's 967 2,101 66 59 6.8% 2.8% 235 297 24.3% 14.1% Bachelor's 1,884 3,190 214 333 11.4% 10.4% 137 250 7.3% 7.8% Graduate 615 1,010 103 174 16.7% 17.2% 59 69 9.6% 6.8% Total 3,713 6,747 395 636 10.6% 9.4% 533 744 14.4% 11.0% Upper Rio Grande: Occupational Growth Occupations Adding the Most New Jobs or Growing the Fastest, 2006-2016, Upper Rio Grande High Growth in: Jobs Change Percent Occupation Title Jobs Percent 2006 2016 (New Jobs) Change All Occupations 299,100 355,750 56,650 19% Leading occupations preferring an associate's degree or higher* Kindergarten & Elementary Teachers 6,050 7,750 1,700 28% Registered Nurses 4,450 5,950 1,500 34% Middle & Secondary Teachers 6,450 7,850 1,400 22% Business O perations Specialists, A ll Other 1,800 2,300 500 28% Construction Mgrs 1,400 1,850 450 32% Computer Software Engineers 800 1,200 400 50% Network & Computer Systems 500 700 200 40% Computer Systems Analysts 850 1,150 300 35% *Occupations with 500 or more jobs in 2006. A-82
This document is available on the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Website: http://www.thecb.state.tx.us Planning & Accountability PO Box 12788 Austin, TX 78752 512/427-6130 Susan E. Brown Assistant Commissioner Gary W. Johnstone Deputy Assistant Commissioner Planning Janet Beinke Director janet.beinke@thecb.state.tx.us Julie Eklund Program Director julie.eklund@thecb.state.tx.us