Labor Market Dynamics and Workforce Trends: Formidable Challenges for Maine Prepared for Leadership Unplugged Portland, Maine Economic & Demographic Research Team Center for Workforce Research and Information
The Current Economy/Labor Market Developments You don t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows Bob Dylan
625,000 620,000000 615,000 610,000000 Nonfarm Wage and Salary Jobs Through October 2009 (Monthly Figures after October Estimated Based on CEFC Quarterly Forecast) Nonfarm Jobs CEFC Forecast 605,000 600,000000 595,000 590,000 585,000 Dec Ja an-08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja an-09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja an-10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Continued Claims for Unemployment Compensation in Maine 4-Week Moving Averages (Data does not include Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims) 35,000 16.5 30,000 16 25,000 15.5 Claims 20,000 15,000 15 14.5 Duration 10,000000 14 5,000 13.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13 2008 Duration 2009 Duration 2006 2007 2008 2009
But in the long run In the long run we are all dead John Maynard Keynes
78 Over the next ten years, many of the million Baby Boomers will leave the workforce, taking with them their product, marketing and industry expertise, along with internal company contacts and vendor and customer relationships. the job market is tight and only 44 million replacements for Baby Boomers will be available over the next ten years through career paths and succession plans. This leaves an enormous gap of core competencies, workforce skills and knowledge that t cannot be replaced by simply increasing i the use of technology to augment the smaller workforce.
Population Growth due to Natural Change is the Lowest in Generations Births and Deaths in Maine 24,000 Births Deaths 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
We Have Become Increasingly Dependent on In-Migration for Population Growth Average Annual Change in Population by Source 12,085 Natural Increase Net Migration 8,940 9,116 5,698 7,563 5,884 4,443 3,096 5,238 1,602 1,521-2,285-6,536-6,837 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-07
Population Growth is Expected to Continue to Slow 1.3% Average Annual Changes in Population 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 05% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-07 2008-20 2020-30
Labor Force Participation Rates Have Peaked Labor force participation rates by gender 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Male Female Total 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2016
Labor Force Growth Will Continue to Slow Labor Force Growth 23% 19% 15% 8% 5% 5% 1% 1946-56 1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-06 2006-16
The Share of Older Workers in the Labor Force is Rising Share of the Labor Force by age group 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1986 1996 2006 2016 16-24 25-54 55+
Composition of Total Employment in Manufacturing 35% 1997 2007 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
The fastest job growth is projected to require at least some college education Job Growth by Educational Attainment 15% 10% 11% 11% 7% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% First Professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree + exp Bachelor's degree Associate degree Postsecondary vocational award Related work experience Long-term OJT Moderate-term OJT Short-term OJT
As educational attainment increases so does average wages $90,000 National Education and Wages $75,000 $60,000 Advance Degree $45,000 Bachelor's Degree $30,000 $15,000 Some College High School Graduate No High School $0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Job Growth will be the largest among the highest and lowest paying occupations Job Growth by Wage Bracket 10.5% 10.0% 10.9% 10.4% 5.5% 4.8% <$10/hr $10 to $14.99/hr $15 to $19.99/hr $20 to $29.99/hr $30 to $39.99/hr $40+/hr
Openings in Occupations will be fueled by replacement demand rather than by growth in all occupations except one Openings by occupations, Growth and Replacement Projections 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Total Management Business & Fin inancial Operations Computer & Mathematical Architectu ture & Engineering Life, Physical, & Social Science Community & Social Services Legal Education, Training, & Library Arts, Design, Enterta rtainment, Sports,.. Healthcare Practitio itioners & Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation & Serving Related Building & Grounds Cleaning & Main... Persona nal Care & Service Sales Office & Admin ministrative Support Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Construc uction & Extraction Installation, Main intenance, & Repair Production Transportation n& & Material Moving 0% Annual Openings due to Growth Annual Openings due to Replacement
Most High Growth/High Wage jobs will be filled by workers with at least some post-secondary education. High School Or Less 33.6% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 45.4% Some College/Associate' s Degree 20.9%
Job growth will be concentrated in Healthcare (51% of net job growth), Prof/Bus. (18%), and Leisure & Hospitality (17%) 2006 to 2016 Projected net change in jobs by sector 17,180 5,890 5,651 2689 209 1,288 1,691 2,689 1,041 1,096 1,808 59 198 290-223 -7,971 Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation&Warehousing Utilities Information Financial Activites Professional & Business Svcs Education Healt alth Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitlity Other Services Government
Fastest Growing Occupations in Maine 2006-2016 15-1081 39-3012 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners 47.1% 46.5% 25-9031 Instructional Coordinators 38.0% 21-1011 Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 37.1% 31-9092 Medical Assistants 33.6% 29-20522052 Pharmacy Technicians 32.7% 31-2021 Physical Therapist Assistants 32.7% 15-1031 1031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications 30.1% 49-9062 Medical Equipment Repairers 29.7% 19-1021 Biochemists and Biophysicists 28.6%
Most Rapidly Declining Occupations in Maine 2006-2016 51-9192 51-7021 17-3024 43-4071 51-9131 51-2031 51-2022 51-7032 51-2021 51-9132 Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders -30.8% Furniture Finishers i -30.8% Electro-Mechanical Technicians -38.7% File Clerks -42.1% Photographic Process Workers -43.4% Engine and Other Machine Assemblers -45.0% Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers -45.8% Patternmakers, Wood -50.0% Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers -53.3% Photographic Processing Machine Operators -54.2%
Jobs in Maine with Most Openings 2006-2016 SOC Annual SOC Title Code Openings 41-2011 Cashiers 755 35-3031 3031 Waiters and Waitresses 680 41-2031 Retail Salespersons 677 29-1111 Registered Nurses 532 35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 455 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 359 43-9061 Office Clerks, General 339 39-9021 Personal and Home Care Aides 279 39-9021 53-7062 Personal and Home Care Aides Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 279 274
O*NET ONET Green Results (cont.) Distribution of Green O*NET-SOC Occupations Across Sectors Increased Demand Enhanced Skills New & Emerging Research, Design, and Consulting Services Manufacturing Green Economy Sec ctors Renewable Energy Generation Green Construction Environment Protection Transportation Governmental and Regulatory Administration Energy Efficiency Agriculture and Forestry Recycling and Waste Reduction Energy Trading Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Number of O*NET-SOC Occupations
A greater share of workers are employed today with smaller employers compared to 25 years ago 20% Percent of Workers by Size Class 16% 12% 8% 4% 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 0-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1000 & over
Why Invest in your Future
The Next Economy is A Science and Knowledge Economy - need scientific and technological literacy A Resource-Challenged Economy - need critical thinking about sustainable economies A Globally Interdependent Economy - global competence is a core competence A Demographically Diverse Economy - requires cross-cultural leadership skills An Innovation-Driven Economy - requires students who can learn how to learn and adapt to rapid change
Future supply of college graduates 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 2003 2010 2015 1,000,000 500,000000 0 China EU US