State-level Changes, National-level Implications: Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics to track the implications of policy changes E. Ann Carson Statistician, Corrections Unit Bureau of Justice Statistics
Annual administrative data collected to track long-term trends in correctional populations Population Data collection Level of records Probation Annual Survey of Probation Aggregate Jail Annual Survey of Jails Aggregate Survey of Jails in Indian Country Deaths in Custody Reporting Program Aggregate Individual Prison National Prisoner Statistics Program Aggregate Capital Punishment National Corrections Reporting Program Deaths in Custody Reporting Program Federal Justice Statistics Program Individual Individual Individual Individual Parole Annual Survey of Parole Aggregate National Corrections Reporting Program Individual
Periodic surveys and topical collections Population Data collection Periodicity Most recent Probation Census of Adult Probation Supervising Agencies? 2014-2015 Jail Survey of Inmates in Local Jails ~7 years 2002 National Inmate Survey* ~7 years 2012 Census of Jails 5-7 years 2014-2015 Prison Survey of Prison Inmates ~7 years 2004 National Inmate Survey* 2-3 years 2012 Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities 5-7 years 2005 Parole National Former Prisoner Survey? 2008 Census of State Parole Supervising Agencies? 2006
Prison population Policies affecting past cases
Del Norte Trinity Humboldt Mendocino Glenn Colusa Yuba Lake Sonoma Siskiyou Violent offenders as a percentage of all admissions to California state prison, by county of sentencing 2010 Shasta Tehama Yolo Napa Butte Sierra Placer Solano Marin Tuolumne Mono Contra Costa Joaquin Francisco Mariposa Mateo ta Clara Merced Madera ta Cruz Benito Monterey Modoc Lassen Plumas El Dorado Fresno Kings Tulare Inyo 60% violent offenders 50-59% 40-49% 30-39% <30% Del Norte Trinity Humboldt Mendocino Glenn Sonoma 2012 Siskiyou Shasta Tehama Yolo Napa Butte Colusa Yuba Lake Sierra Placer Solano Marin Tuolumne Mono Contra Costa Joaquin Francisco Mariposa Mateo ta Clara Merced Madera ta Cruz Benito Monterey Modoc Lassen Plumas El Dorado Fresno Kings Tulare Inyo Luis Obispo ta Barbara Kern Ventura Los Angeles Bernardino Luis Obispo ta Barbara Kern Ventura Los Angeles Bernardino Orange Riverside Orange Riverside Diego Imperial Diego Imperial Source: National Corrections Reporting Program, preliminary analysis
Violent offenders as a percentage of all sentenced California state prison inmates at yearend, by county of sentencing 2010 2012 Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc 70% violent offenders Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc Trinity Humboldt Shasta Tehama Lassen Plumas 60-69% 50-59% Trinity Humboldt Shasta Tehama Lassen Plumas Mendocino Glenn Butte Colusa Yuba Lake Sierra Placer 40-49% Mendocino Glenn Butte Colusa Yuba Lake Sierra Placer Sonoma Yolo Napa El Dorado Sonoma Yolo Napa El Dorado Solano Marin Contra Francisco Costa Joaquin Mateo ta Clara ta Cruz Merced Tuolumne Mariposa Madera Mono Solano Marin Tuolumne Mono Contra Costa Joaquin Francisco Mariposa Mateo ta Clara Merced Madera ta Cruz Benito Fresno Inyo Benito Fresno Inyo Monterey Kings Tulare Monterey Kings Tulare Luis Obispo Kern Bernardino Luis Obispo Kern Bernardino ta Barbara Ventura Los Angeles ta Barbara Ventura Los Angeles Orange Riverside Orange Riverside Diego Imperial Diego Imperial Source: National Corrections Reporting Program, preliminary analysis
Rate of parole exits, and time served on parole, 2008-2012 Exit rate per 100 parolees 80 70 60 Time served on parole, in months 25 20 50 40 30 20 10 15 10 5 Exit rate Exit rate w/o CA Time served Time served w/o CA 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 Source: Annual Survey of Parole, preliminary analysis
Prison population Policies affecting future cases
Source: Urban Institute, 2014, Justice Reinvestment Initiative State Assessment Report
Source: BJS, Prisoners in 2013, NCJ 247282
National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) 1983 current Inmate-level administrative data Separate files for: Prison admissions ( A ) Prison releases ( B ) Releases from parole ( C ) Yearend prison census ( D ) (1999-current) Entries to post-custody community supervision ( E ) (2012-current) Exits from post-custody community supervision ( F ) (2012-current) Variables Dates of birth, admission, release Demographic, offense, and sentencing information Unique state (and federal) ID numbers, names
National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) state participation 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Prison admissions (A) 30 33 36 37 35 35 34 35 35 38 38 39 38 37 37 38 37 Prison releases (B) 30 33 36 36 35 35 34 34 34 36 38 39 37 37 37 38 37 Parole releases (C) 24 29 30 30 28 28 28 27 27 31 29 31 31 30 30 29 27 Prison yearend census (D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 TOTAL PARTICIPATING 32 34 37 37 35 36 36 35 36 38 38 39 38 38 38 39 38 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Prison admissions (A) 38 38 40 38 38 38 38 39 40 41 44 46 47 44 Prison releases (B) 38 38 40 38 38 38 38 38 39 41 44 46 48 44 Parole releases (C) 30 27 28 28 27 26 26 24 24 25 27 10 4 0 Prison yearend census (D) 19 26 29 28 26 26 26 30 31 37 42 44 45 42 PCCS entries (E) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 9 10 16 23 26 PCCS releases (F) 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 5 5 8 9 14 27 29 TOTAL PARTICIPATING 42 42 43 41 39 40 41 42 43 45 47 49 49 47 *Through 12/16/2014
California state prison release rate per 10,000 residents, by county of sentencing, 2012 Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc 20 per 10,000 residents Humboldt Trinity Shasta Tehama Lassen Plumas 10-19 per 10,000 residents 0-9 per 10,000 residents Mendocino Glenn Butte Sierra Lake Colusa Yuba Placer Sonoma Yolo Napa El Dorado Marin Francisco Solano Contra Costa Joaquin Mateo ta Clara Merced ta Cruz Tuolumne Mariposa Madera Mono Benito Fresno Inyo Monterey Kings Tulare Luis Obispo Kern Bernardino ta Barbara Ventura Los Angeles Orange Riverside Source: BJS, Prisoners in 2012: Trends in Admissions and Releases, NCJ 243920 Diego Imperial
NCRP term record construction (2000-current) Prison term 1 Prison term 2 D D D D D D D 1/1/00 12/31/13 Admission (A record) Custody (D records) Release (B record) PCCS term (E,F records)
Recidivism as measured in the NCRP term records Allows for the standard release cohort/cross-section measurement of recidivism State X: In 2000 28,129 released 11,528 returned in 3 yrs Recidivism = 41 % In 2005 24,572 released 10,322 returned in 3 yrs Recidivism = 42 % In 2009 25,126 released 10,387 returned in 3 yrs Recidivism = 41 % Also allows us to look at recidivism of individual offenders over a period of time State X: Between 2000-2009 174,312 released 47,148 unique offenders returned in 3 years Recidivism = 27 %
Future work on correctional populations Data linkage with the Center for Administrative Records Research and Applications (CARRA) at the U.S. Census Bureau Tax returns (IRS) Public housing and rental assistance history (HUD), HUD-insured mortgage program Supplemental Security Income recipient record (SSA) Medicare enrollee data (CMS) Change of address file (USPS) Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Death Master File (SSA) Decennial Census, American Community Survey Patient registration file (IHS) Unemployment insurance wage data Data linkage with the National Death Index to address post-supervision mortality
Future work on correctional populations, cont. BJS National Criminal History Improvement Program Improvements to state RAP sheets to capture arrest, disposition, and imprisonment data BJS has invested in cross-state parsing program for RAP sheets that automates and standardizes the information in criminal history records Legislative changes to sentencing policies could be better tracked with more accurate criminal history records, and states could track within and cross-jurisdiction returns into jail or prison State-level estimates of recidivism and short-term population projections Individual-level jail data to create an NCRP for jails
Contact information: E. Ann Carson Corrections Unit Bureau of Justice Statistics Office of Justice Programs U.S. Department of Justice 810 Seventh Street, NW Washington, DC 20531 202/616.3496 elizabeth.carson@usdoj.gov