Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FC-6-4 June 24 Cotton: World Markets and Trade 24/5 Forecasts Production Up and Cotton Consumption Continues to Shift to Developing Countries 4, 35, 3, Million 48-lb Bales 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, US, Mexico & Canada China India Pakistan Brazil ROW Produc ti on ( 23/4) Production ( 24/5) Consumption ( 23/4) Consumption (24/ 5) World cotton fiber consumption in 24/5 is forecast to increase 1.3 million bales over last year s estimate, with developing Asian countries showing big gains as use in developed countries continues to decline. China is forecast to show a 2 million-bale increase followed by India and Pakistan, each with 2,-bale increases in consumption. The only other major consuming countries forecast with increased consumption are Brazil, Bangladesh and Thailand. The continued growth in these countries will be strongly supported by the final phase out of the MFA textile quotas. Cotton consumption is forecast to decline in 24/5 in NAFTA countries by 7 percent, the EU-15 by 8 percent and the more industrialized countries of Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea) by 5 percent. World production is forecast at record 12.9 million bales, a 1.1 percent increase over the previous crop. Area increases are forecast for nearly all cotton producing countries as prices have improved. Although cotton area is forecast higher in India and the United States, cotton production in these countries should decrease due to yields returning to normal levels. Several major cotton-producing countries are forecast to see dramatic production increases (notably China up 6.7 million bales, Australia up 1.1 million bales and Pakistan up 1 million bales) due to area increases and yields returning to normal following poor yields last year. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 Further Information Contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco, and Seeds Division Stop Independence Ave., SW Washington, D.C Telephone -- (22) Fax -- (22) J. Lawrence Blum, Director Patrick Packnett, Deputy Director for Analysis John Wade, Group Leader, Cotton and Tobacco Principal Contributors James Johnson...Senior Cotton Analyst Paul Provance...Chairperson for Foreign Area and Production Hooshang Fazel... Analyst, Middle East and South Asia Teresa McKeivier...Analyst, Americas, Europe and Southeast Asia Morgan Hass... Intern This circular, and other information, can be found at the FAS/COTS Division Internet site: Page 2 of 24

3 Table of Contents U.S. Cotton Outlook... 4 World Cotton Outlook... 4 Cotton Prices... 5 U.S. Cotton Highlights... 5 Tables Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. Table 5-A. Table 6. Table 6-A. Table 7. Table 8. Table 9. Table 1. Table 11. Table 13. World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1999/-24/5 (1, metric tons)... 6 World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1999/-24/5 (1, 48-lb. bales)... 7 FY 22 GSM-12 and Supplier Credit Programs... 8 Area, Yield, and Production 23/4-24/ Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 24/5 (1, 48-lb. bales) Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 24/5 (1, metric tons) Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 23/4 (1, 48-lb. bales) Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 23/4 (1, metric tons) U.S. Export Sales Summary Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization... 2 United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization Summary of Changes 2/1-23/4 (1, 48-lb. bales) Page 3 of 24

4 World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook Marketing Years 22/3, 23/4 and 24/25 1, 48-Lb. Bales World 22/3 23/4 24/25 % Change 23/4-24/5 22/3 23/4 24/25 % Change 23/4-24/5 Production 88,275 93,465 12, % 17,29 18,255 17,6-3.6% Imports 3,447 33,589 31, % % Use 98,659 98,61 99, % 7,273 6,3 5,8-7.9% Exports 3,622 32,992 31, % 11,9 13,8 11,5-16.7% Ending Stocks 36,594 32,26 35, % 5,385 3,6 3,9 8.3% US U.S. COTTON OUTLOOK Based on revised Census data, U.S. use is increased 4, bales in MY 22/3. The change is offset in the "difference unaccounted," and ending stocks remain 5,385, bales. WORLD COTTON OUTLOOK Based on new production data for Kyrgyzstan, MY 21/2 world production numbers were increased by 6, bales and world exports by 69, bales, thus reducing world ending stocks by 9, bales. For MY 22/3, world imports are increased 158, bales with a corresponding 59,-bale world use increase due mostly to new estimates for Bangladesh. A 43,- bale increase in world production led to a 35,-bale increase in world exports led solely by new production data for Kyrgyzstan. World ending stocks are increased 12, bales from the May estimate. For MY 23/4 world use is increased 814, bales from the May estimate. This increase is mostly led by a 7, bale increase in China's consumption. China's stocks tighten as increased consumption is covered by stocks, thus reducing world stocks by 629, bales. Since the May report, the major country developments for the 23/4 crop year are as follows: Brazil: The export forecast has been lowered 15, bales, thus increasing ending stocks. More cotton than previously expected from the late harvesting Mato Grosso area will be exported next marketing year. Chad: New data indicate area down 125, hectares and production down 1, bales. Exports are also reduced 75, bales. China: Continued strong mill use prompted a 7,-bale increase in consumption that resulted in a corresponding 7,-bale decline in ending stocks. A 1,-bale decline in production was based on official data, and is offset by a 1,-bale increase in imports. India: Use is increased 2, bales due to better than expected mill consumption. Exports are increased 1, bales due to new trade data. Accordingly, stocks are reduced 3, bales. Page 4 of 24

5 COTTON PRICES The A-Index, a principal measure of international cotton prices, is an average of the five lowest quotes of major cotton growths for delivery to Northern European ports. In May, the index averaged 7.4 cents per pound, up.59 cents from April s average. In New York, the nearby July future contract settlement price increased 1.69 cents between the end of April and the end of May, closing at cents per pound on May 28. Cotton Consumption and Stocks April March Seasonally adjusted daily rate of consumption 23,674 bales 24,141 bales Total bales consumed per month 485,142 bales 632,52 bales Seasonally adjusted annualized consumption rate 6.18 million bales 6.3 million bales Active s pindles 2.2 million 2.19 million % Spindles dedicated to 1% cotton percent 56.1 percent Cotton s share of total fibers consumed on spindle system percent 8.29 percent Cotton Stocks at mills 333,656 bales 353,24 bales Cotton Stocks in public s torage 7.58 million bales 9.26 million bales U.S. Highlights Textile Mill Report: Mills purchased a light volume of 23-crop cotton for July- September 24 delivery. Yarn prices strengthened somewhat. Higher petroleum prices improved cotton s price position relative to man-made fibers. Business was stronger. Some mills that were covered for the summer months were back in the market for raw cotton. Pricing for new crop cotton was reported at a similar basis as that received the past couple of years. U.S. COTTON EXPORTS totaled $656.5 million or 1.9 million bales in March, up from $48 million or 1.4 million bales in February, according to Census data. China was the top destination for U.S. cotton in February at 896,849 bales or $314.6 million, followed by Turkey at 272,126 bales or $9.6 million. U.S. COTTON IMPORTS increased to $1.45 million (2,795 bales) in March from $944, (1,891 bales) in February. Egypt accounted for $1.43 million (2,77 bales), India accounted for $9, (47 bales), and Pakistan accounted for $7, (42 bales) in March. Page 5 of 24

6 Production Table 1 World Cotton Supply, Use, and Trade 1999/2-24/5 (Season Beginning August 1) In 1, Metric Tons 23/4 24/5 Percent 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 Estimate Forecast change World 19,57 19,326 21,467 19,22 2,35 22,41 1.1% China; Peoples Republic of 3,832 4,42 5,313 4,921 4,855 6,314 3.% United States 3,694 3,742 4,421 3,747 3,975 3, % India 2,652 2,38 2,678 2,38 2,852 2, % Pakistan 1,872 1,785 1,87 1,698 1,687 1, % Brazil ,23 1, % Uzbekistan; Republic of 1, ,67 1, % Turkey % Use Other 4,386 4,317 4,551 3,788 3,943 4, % World 19,8 2,64 2,586 21,481 21,47 21, % China; Peoples Republic of 4,638 5,117 5,715 6,51 7,11 7, % India 2,95 2,949 2,89 2,896 2,896 2, % Pakistan 1,666 1,764 1,851 2,47 2,9 2, % United States 2,22 1,929 1,676 1,584 1,372 1, % Turkey 1,219 1,125 1,339 1,372 1,35 1, % Brazil % Indonesia % Imports Other 5,751 5,732 5,787 5,799 5,467 5,34-5.7% World 6,144 5,758 6,492 6,629 7,313 6, % China; Peoples Republic of ,916 1, % Turkey % Indonesia % Thailand % Bangladesh % Russian Federation % Mexico % Exports Other 3,861 3,422 3,76 3,338 3,18 3,79-6.9% World 5,92 5,771 6,319 6,667 7,183 6, % United States 1,47 1,467 2,395 2,591 3,5 2, % Uzbekistan; Republic of % Australia % Mali % Greece % Burkina % Brazil % Other 2,312 2,96 1,81 2,4 2,143 2,37 6.9% Ending Stocks World 9,917 9,289 1,32 7,967 6,973 7, % China; Peoples Republic of 3,866 3,125 2,745 1,673 1,39 1, % Brazil , % India 1, , % United States 852 1,36 1,622 1, % Pakistan % Turkey % Australia % Other 2,337 2,166 2,84 2,673 2,247 2, % Page 6 of 24

7 Production Table 2 World Cotton Supply, Use, and Trade 1999/2-24/5 (Season Beginning August 1) In 1, 48 Lb. Bales 23/4 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 Estimate 24/5 Percent Forecast change World 87,525 88,761 98,598 88,275 93,465 12, % China; Peoples Republic of 17,6 2,3 24,4 22,6 22,3 29, 3.% United States 16,968 17,188 2,33 17,29 18,255 17,6-3.6% India 12,18 1,931 12,3 1,6 13,1 12, -8.4% Pakistan 8,6 8,2 8,3 7,8 7,75 8, % Brazil 3,216 4,312 3,519 3,89 5,65 6,5 15.% Uzbekistan; Republic of 5,18 4,4 4,9 4,6 4,2 4,5 7.1% Turkey 3,634 3,6 3,975 4,179 4,1 4,25 3.7% Use Other 2,147 19,83 2,91 17,397 18,11 2, % World 9,941 92,15 94,552 98,659 98,61 99, % China; Peoples Republic of 21,3 23,5 26,25 29,9 32,2 34,2 6.2% India 13,547 13,544 13,275 13,3 13,3 13,5 1.5% Pakistan 7,65 8,1 8,5 9,4 9,6 9,8 2.1% United States 1,194 8,862 7,696 7,273 6,3 5,8-7.9% Turkey 5,6 5,167 6,15 6,3 6,2 6,1-1.6% Brazil 4,236 4,2 3,8 3,6 3,75 3,9 4.% Indonesia 2, 2,45 2,3 2,25 2,15 2,2 2.3% Other 26,414 26,327 26,581 26,636 25,11 24, % Imports World 28,219 26,448 29,818 3,447 33,589 31, % China; Peoples Republic of ,127 8,8 6,25-29.% Turkey 2,4 1,75 2,868 2,265 2,2 2, % Indonesia 2,76 2,65 2,356 2,228 2,15 2,25 4.7% Thailand 1,76 1,573 2,57 1,945 1,7 2,1 23.5% Bangladesh 775 1, 1,2 1,6 1,54 1, % Russian Federation 1,6 1,65 1,8 1,65 1,475 1,475.% Mexico 1,813 1,865 2,65 2,3 1,45 1,55 6.9% Other 17,732 15,719 17,23 15,332 14,274 14,14-6.9% Exports World 27,191 26,57 29,24 3,622 32,992 31, % United States 6,75 6,74 11, 11,9 13,8 11,5-16.7% Uzbekistan; Republic of 4,1 3,4 3,4 3,5 3,125 3,1 -.8% Australia 3,29 3,94 3,11 2,655 2,5 2,2 7.3% Mali ,175 1, % Greece 1,8 1,424 1, 1,3 1,1 1, -9.1% Burkina % Brazil , % Other 1,62 9,629 8,274 9,23 9,842 9, % Ending Stocks World 45,547 42,663 47,399 36,594 32,26 35, % China; Peoples Republic of 17,758 14,351 12,68 7,684 6,384 7, % Brazil 2,393 2,968 2,416 2,88 4,45 5, % India 4,913 3,773 5,126 3,592 3,742 3,442-8.% United States 3,915 6, 7,448 5,385 3,6 3,9 8.3% Pakistan 2,696 2,646 3,261 2,255 1,98 2,55 3.8% Turkey ,45 1, ,84 9.6% Australia 2,39 2,95 2,211 1, % Other 1,736 9,948 12,879 12,278 1,32 11, % Page 7 of 24

8 Table 3 FY 23 GSM-12 Export Credit Guarantees, Monthly Summary (Million $U.S.) Cotton and FY 23 Total for all Commodities Total Cotton Total Country 4/ Guarantees Registered Balance Cotton 2/ Cotton 7-May Central America (36) 5/ Indonesia Korea Total(24) N/A N/A N/A Korea Cotton (24) 6/ Mexico (24) South America Region (36) 7/ Turkey (36) Other 1, , TOTAL 4,189. 2, , FY 23 Supplier Credit Guarantee Program, Monthly Summary (Million $ U.S.) Central America (18) 5/ India (18) Mexico (18) South America Region (18) 7/ Turkey (18) Southeast Balkans Region (18) 9/ Caribbean Region (18) 1/ Other TOTAL 1, / Includes Cottton, Cotton Yarn, and Cotton Fabric. 2/ Total Cotton Registrations includes registrations and/or cancellations from Oct 1, 23. 3/ Net registrations for period ending. 4/ Number in parenthesis is maximum term in months. 5/ Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 6/ Korea has a total Credit Guarantee of $45 million, with no specified allocation for cotton. 7/ Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand 9/ Romania and Bulgaria. NOTES: Registrations current as of May 7, 24 Jun-4 Page 8 of 24

9 Table 4 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production World and Selected Countries and Regions Area (1, Ha) Yield (KG/Ha) Production (1, Bales) 23/24 24/25 23/2 24/25 23/24 24/25 Western Hemisphere United States 4,858 5, ,255 17,6 Brazil 1,3 1,15 1,194 1,231 5,65 6,5 Mexico ,89 1, Argentina Paraguay Colombia Peru Others Total 6,691 7, ,76 26,214 Europe EU ,39 1,96 2,1 Greece ,26 1,53 1,65 Spain ,18 1, Others Total ,16 1,992 2,132 Africa FZA 2,32 2, ,435 4,42 Mali ,2 1,7 Burkina Benin Cote d'ivoire Cameroon Togo Chad Egypt ,25 Zimbabwe Nigeria Sudan Tanzania; United R Zambia South Africa; Repu Mozambique Uganda Ethiopia Others Total 4,796 5, ,595 8,14 Asia and Oceania China; Peoples Re 5,11 5,7 95 1,18 22,3 29, India 8, 8, ,1 12, Pakistan 3,92 3, ,75 8,75 FSU 2,445 2, ,835 7,295 Uzbekistan; Rep 1,4 1, ,2 4,5 Turkmenistan , Tajikistan; Repu Kazakhstan; Re Kyrgyzstan; Rep ,151 1, Azerbaijan; Rep Turkey ,257 1,268 4,1 4,25 Australia ,355 1,451 1,4 2,5 Syria ,415 1,367 1,3 1,35 Iran Burma Afghanistan Israel ,34 1, Others Total 2,515 21, ,118 66,398 Foreign Total 27,63 29, ,21 85,284 World Total 32,461 34, ,465 12,884 Page 9 of 24

10 Table 5 Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 24/25 (1, 48 lb Bales) Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina , Armenia; Republic of Australia 66 2,5 3, ,2 941 Austria Azerbaijan; Republic of Bahrain Bangladesh ,675 2,61 1, Belarus Belgium-Luxembourg Benin Bolivia Brazil 4,45 6,5 5 11,45 3,9-1 2,2 5,45 Bulgaria Burkina , Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China; Peoples Republic of 6,384 29, 6,25 41,634 34,2 2 7,234 Colombia Congo; Democratic Rep of the Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt 61 1, , El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece 365 1,65 2 2, , 355 Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India 3,742 12, 1,3 17,42 13,5 1 3,442 Indonesia ,25 2,658 2, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy , Japan Kazakhstan; Republic of Kenya Korea; Democratic Peoples R Korea; Republic of ,325 1,734 1, Kyrgyzstan; Republic of Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mali 257 1,7 1, , Page 1 of 24

11 Table 5 Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 24/25 (1, 48 lb Bales) Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Mauritius Mexico ,55 2,731 1, Moldova; Republic of Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Pakistan 1,98 8,75 1,35 12,8 9, ,55 Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation 197 1,475 1,672 1, Senegal Singapore Slovakia Somalia South Africa; Republic of Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria 299 1,35 1, Taiwan 33 1,1 1,43 1,1 33 Tajikistan; Republic of Tanzania; United Republic of Thailand ,1 2,549 2, Togo Tunisia Turkey 989 4,25 2,175 7,414 6,1 23 1,84 Turkmenistan 374 1, 1, Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States 3,6 17,6 4 21,24 5,8 4 11,5 3,9 Uruguay Uzbekistan; Republic of 673 4,5 5,173 1,325 3,1 748 Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Yugoslavia Zambia Zimbabwe World Total 32,26 12,884 31, ,525 99, ,283 35,347 * Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number. Page 11 of 24

12 Table 5A Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 24/25 1, Metric Tons Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia; Republic of Australia Austria Azerbaijan; Republic of Bahrain Bangladesh Belarus Belgium-Luxembourg Benin Bolivia Brazil 959 1, , ,177 Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China; Peoples Republic of 1,39 6,314 1,361 9,65 7, ,575 Colombia Congo; Democratic Rep of the Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Cuba Cyprus 1 Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India 815 2, ,71 2, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan; Republic of Kenya Korea; Democratic Peoples R Korea; Republic of Kyrgyzstan; Republic of Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mali Page 12 of 24

13 Table 5A Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 24/25 1, Metric Tons Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Mauritius Mexico Moldova; Republic of Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Pakistan 431 1, ,63 2, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Senegal Singapore Slovakia Somalia South Africa; Republic of Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan; Republic of Tanzania; United Republic of Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey ,614 1, Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States 784 3, ,625 1, , Uruguay Uzbekistan; Republic of , Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Yugoslavia Zambia Zimbabwe World Total 6,973 22,41 6,883 36,257 21, ,811 7,696 * Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number. Page 13 of 24

14 Table 6 Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 23/24 (1, 48 lb Bales) Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina , Armenia; Republic of Australia 1,231 1,4 2, ,5 66 Austria Azerbaijan; Republic of Bahrain Bangladesh ,54 1,918 1, Belarus Belgium-Luxembourg Benin Bolivia Brazil 2,88 5, ,5 3, ,45 Bulgaria Burkina , Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China; Peoples Republic of 7,684 22,3 8,8 38,784 32,2 2 6,384 Colombia Congo; Democratic Rep of the Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt , El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece 615 1,53 2 2, ,1 365 Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India 3,592 13,1 9 17,592 13,3 55 3,742 Indonesia ,15 2,591 2, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy , Japan , Kazakhstan; Republic of Kenya Korea; Democratic Peoples R Korea; Republic of ,275 1,763 1, Kyrgyzstan; Republic of Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mali 252 1,2 1, , Page 14 of 24

15 Table 6 Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 23/24 (1, 48 lb Bales) Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Mauritius Mexico 1, ,45 2,781 2, Moldova; Republic of Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Pakistan 2,255 7,75 1,75 11,755 9, ,98 Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation 222 1,475 1,697 1,5 197 Senegal Singapore Slovakia Somalia South Africa; Republic of Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria 349 1,3 1, Taiwan 482 1, 1,482 1, Tajikistan; Republic of Tanzania; United Republic of Thailand ,7 2,362 1, Togo Tunisia Turkey 1,289 4,1 2,2 7,589 6, Turkmenistan , Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States 5,385 18, ,69 6,3-1 13,8 3,6 Uruguay Uzbekistan; Republic of 893 4,2 5 5,98 1,3 3, Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Yugoslavia Zambia Zimbabwe World Total 36,594 93,465 33, ,648 98, ,992 32,26 * Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number. Page 15 of 24

16 Table 6A Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 23/24 1, Metric Tons Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia; Republic of Australia Austria Azerbaijan; Republic of Bahrain Bangladesh Belarus Belgium-Luxembourg Benin Bolivia Brazil 627 1, , Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China; Peoples Republic of 1,673 4,855 1,916 8,444 7, ,39 Colombia Congo; Democratic Rep of the Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Cuba Cyprus 1 Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India 782 2, ,83 2, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan; Republic of Kenya Korea; Democratic Peoples R Korea; Republic of Kyrgyzstan; Republic of Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mali Page 16 of 24

17 Table 6A Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country MY 23/24 1, Metric Tons Beg. Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Loss Exports End. Stocks Mauritius Mexico Moldova; Republic of Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Pakistan 491 1, ,559 2, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Senegal Singapore Slovakia Somalia South Africa; Republic of Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan; Republic of Tanzania; United Republic of Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey ,652 1, Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States 1,172 3, ,158 1, ,5 784 Uruguay Uzbekistan; Republic of , Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Yugoslavia Zambia Zimbabwe World Total 7,967 2,35 7,313 35,631 21,47 4 7,183 6,973 * Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number. Page 17 of 24

18 Table 7: U.S. Export Sales Summary Monthly Export Sales for-3 Week Period Region/Country May 6, 24 - May 27, 24 (1, Running Bales) Pima All Upland >1-1/16" Upland " to 1-1/16" < 1" EUROPEAN UNION OTHER EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE..... FORMER SOVIET UNION JAPAN TAIWAN CHINA KOR REP INDIA OTHER ASIA AND OCEANIA AFRICA..... WESTERN HEMISPHERE UNKNOWN TOTAL Weekly Ave MY22/23 (May 8 - May 29) Total Net Sales Weekly Ave Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: USDA/FAS Jun-4 All Cotton Marketing Year Totals to Date Current Year through May 27 Last MY through May 29 Accumulated Exports 1,557 9,63 Outstanding Sales 2,8 2,933 Commitments 13,357 11,996 Weekly Export Ave Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: USDA/FAS number of weeks in current period 3 Jun-4 Page 18 of 24

19 Table 8 Northern European Cotton Price Quotations and USDA's Adjusted World Price (in cents per pound) Date Cotlook A-Index Lowest U.S. Quote Yearly Average 1994/ / / / / / / / / / Monthly Average April May June July August September October November December January February March April May Weekly Average 1/8/ /15/ /22/ /29/ /5/ /12/ /19/ /26/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/ /1/ /8/ /15/ /22/ /29/ /6/ /13/ /2/ /27/ /28/ U.S. - A-Index Lowest A-Index Quote Adjusted World Price The A-Index is the average of the five lowest quotes of the following descriptions (all 1-3/32"): Memphis Terr.; Calif. Ariz; Mexico; Central America; Paraguayan; Turkish; Uzbeki; Pakistani 153; Indian H-4; Chinese Type 329; West African; Tanzanian; Greek; Syrian; and Australian. 2. Reflects incorporation of forward shipment quotations but does not include the Secretary's discretionary adjustments. Averages for August 1998 and forward reflect 1998/99 quotations; others are 1997/98 quotations SOURCE: Cotlook, Ltd. United Kingdom Page 19 of 24

20 Table 9 World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization (1, 48-Lb. Bales, 1961/ /25) Marketing Year 1, Hectares Yield Kg/Ha Begining Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Consu mption Loss Exports Ending Stocks 1961/ , ,875 44,467 15,986 79,328 44, ,635 19, / , ,87 46,958 16,472 82,517 43, ,918 22, / , ,923 5,761 17,79 91,474 47, ,923 25, / , ,954 53,77 17,37 97,94 51,225 16,856 29, / , ,13 56,886 17,133 13,32 53, ,959 32, / , ,56 52,272 18,9 12,787 56, ,238 28, /1968 3, ,496 51,524 17,37 97,39 56, ,513 23, / , ,694 56,872 16,935 97,51 56, ,6 24, /197 32, ,92 54,272 17,698 96,62 55, ,712 22, / , ,475 55,554 24,612 12,641 57, ,542 21, / , ,972 59,118 24,669 15,759 58, ,83 22, / , ,563 61,79 27, ,73 59, ,722 24, / , ,631 62,438 26, ,813 6, ,182 27,3 1974/ , ,3 63,764 23, ,888 57, ,23 33, / , ,558 53,964 26, ,88 61, ,896 26, /1977 3, ,157 56,55 24,931 17,638 6, ,553 22, / , ,682 63,99 27,12 113,711 61, ,328 26, / , ,15 59,481 27, ,625 63, ,123 22, /198 32, ,261 65,428 3,56 118,195 65, ,549 21, / , ,818 63,334 27, ,45 65, ,212 21, / , ,43 68,824 25, ,565 63, ,865 26, / , ,153 66,312 26,71 118,536 67, ,653 25, /1984 3, ,571 66,273 27,59 118,93 68, ,38 24, / , ,428 88,656 27,629 14,713 7, ,165 42, / , ,298 8,12 28, ,381 75, ,43 47, / , ,787 7,338 33,93 151,218 82, ,329 35, /1988 3, ,554 81,443 3, ,526 84, ,42 32, / , ,799 84,168 33,582 15,549 85, ,481 31, /199 31, ,246 79,74 32, ,663 86, ,355 25, / , ,188 87,163 3,68 142,959 85, ,578 27, / , ,663 95,41 29,42 152,115 86, ,278 36, / , ,97 82,295 27,8 146,21 86, ,56 33, /1994 3, ,66 77,454 27, ,925 85, ,77 26, / , ,345 85,933 3, ,847 84, ,447 29, / , ,912 93,418 27,314 15,644 85, ,551 37, / , ,433 89,927 28, ,256 87, ,931 41, / , ,663 92,1 26, ,92 87, ,847 45, / , ,823 85,274 24, ,839 84, ,552 48, /2 32, ,58 87,525 28, ,82 9, ,191 45,547 2/21 32, ,547 88,761 26,448 16,756 92, ,57 42,663 21/22 33, ,663 98,598 29, ,79 94, ,24 47,399 22/23 3, ,399 88,275 3, ,121 98, ,622 36,594 23/24 32, ,594 93,465 33, ,648 98, ,992 32,26 24/25 34, ,26 12,884 31, ,525 99, ,283 35,347 Note: Beginning with 197/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states. Page 2 of 24

21 Table 1 United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization (1, 48-Lb. Bales, 1961/ /25) Marketing Year 1, Hectares Yield Kg/Ha Begining Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Consu mption Loss Exports Ending Stocks 1961/1962 6, ,56 14, ,492 9, ,56 7, /1963 6, ,699 14, ,663 8, ,429 11, /1964 5, ,136 15, ,565 8, ,775 12, /1965 5, ,351 15, ,613 9, ,195 14, /1966 5, ,249 14, ,318 9, ,35 17, /1967 3, ,28 9, ,688 9, ,832 12, /1968 3, ,344 7, ,936 9, ,361 6, /1969 4, ,584 1, ,577 8, ,825 6, /197 4, ,544 9, ,586 8, ,878 5, /1971 4, ,843 1, ,72 8, ,897 4, /1972 4, ,23 1, ,752 8, ,385 3, /1973 5, ,258 13, ,996 7, ,311 4, /1974 4, ,221 12, ,243 7, ,123 3, /1975 5, ,88 11, ,382 5, ,926 5, /1976 3, ,78 8, ,12 7, ,311 3, /1977 4, ,681 1, ,3 6, ,784 2, /1978 5, ,928 14, ,322 6, ,484 5, /1979 5, ,347 1, ,27 6, ,18 3, /198 5, ,958 14, ,592 6, ,229 3, 198/1981 5, , 11, ,15 5, ,926 2, /1982 5, ,668 15, ,34 5, ,567 6, /1983 3, ,632 11, ,615 5, ,27 7, /1984 2, ,937 7, ,72 5, ,786 2, /1985 4, ,775 12, ,781 5, ,215 4, /1986 4, ,12 13, ,567 6, ,96 9, /1987 3, ,348 9, ,82 7, ,684 5, /1988 4, ,26 14, ,788 7, ,582 5, /1989 4, ,771 15, ,187 7, ,148 7, /199 3, ,92 12, ,29 8, ,694 3, 199/1991 4, , 15, ,59 8, ,793 2, /1992 5, ,344 17, ,971 9, ,646 3, /1993 4, ,74 16, ,923 1, ,21 4, /1994 5, ,662 16, ,82 1, ,862 3, /1995 5, ,53 19, ,212 11, ,42 2, /1996 6, ,65 17,9 48 2,958 1, ,675 2, /1997 5, ,69 18, ,954 11, ,865 3, /1998 5, ,971 18, ,777 11, ,5 3, /1999 4, ,887 13, ,244 1, ,298 3, /2 5, ,939 16, ,4 1, ,75 3,915 2/21 5, ,915 17, ,119 8, ,74 6, 21/22 5, , 2, ,324 7, , 7,448 22/23 5, ,448 17, ,724 7, ,9 5,385 23/24 4, ,385 18, ,69 6,3-1 13,8 3,6 24/25 5, ,6 17,6 4 21,24 5,8 4 11,5 3,9 Note: Beginning with 197/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states. Page 21 of 24

22 Table 11 Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization (1, 48-Lb. Bales, 1961/ /25) Marketing Year 1, Hectares Yield Kg/Ha Begining Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Consu mption Loss Exports Ending Stocks 1961/ , ,819 3,184 15,833 57,836 35, ,579 11, / , ,388 32,131 16,335 59,854 35, ,489 11, / , ,787 35,467 17,655 64,99 39, ,148 13, / , ,63 38,626 17,252 69,481 41, ,661 14, / , ,764 41,935 17,15 73,714 44, ,924 15, / , ,478 42,717 17,94 76,99 46, ,46 16, / , ,152 44,81 17,221 77,454 47, ,152 17, / , ,11 45,947 16,867 79,924 48, ,181 17, /197 28, ,548 44,282 17,646 79,476 47, ,834 16, / , ,632 45,362 24,575 86,569 48, ,645 17, / , ,769 48,641 24,597 91,7 5, ,445 19, / , ,35 48,86 27,343 94,734 51, ,411 2, / , ,41 49,464 26,696 96,57 52, ,59 23, / , ,492 52,224 23,79 99,56 51, ,277 27, / , ,85 45,662 26,194 99,76 54, ,585 22, / , ,476 45,969 24,893 93,338 53, ,769 19, / , ,754 49,52 27,115 96,389 54, ,844 2, / , ,668 48,625 27,125 96,418 56, ,943 18, /198 27, ,33 5,799 3,51 99,63 59, ,32 18, / , ,818 52,212 27,225 98,255 59, ,286 18, / , ,375 53,178 25,672 97,225 58, ,298 19, / , ,521 54,349 26,51 99,921 61, ,446 17, / , ,634 58,52 27,47 13,183 62, ,522 21, / , ,653 75,674 27,65 124,932 65, ,95 38, / , ,196 66,67 28, ,814 68, ,83 38, / , ,439 6,67 33,9 132,136 74, ,645 3, / , ,528 66,683 3, ,738 76, ,46 27, / , ,28 68,757 33, ,362 77, ,333 24, /199 27, ,154 67,58 32, ,373 78, ,661 22, / , ,188 71,658 3,64 124,45 76, ,785 25, / , ,319 77,796 29,29 132,144 76, ,632 33, / , ,23 66,77 27,7 126,287 76, ,359 28, / , ,998 61,32 27,85 118,123 74, ,98 22, / , ,815 66,271 3, ,635 73, ,45 27, / , ,262 75,518 26,96 129,686 74, ,876 34, / , ,824 7,985 28, ,32 76, ,66 37, / , ,692 73,28 26, ,143 75, ,347 41, / , ,936 71,356 24,33 137,595 74, ,254 44, /2 26, ,119 7,557 28, ,798 8, ,441 41,632 2/21 26, ,632 71,573 26, ,637 83, ,767 36,663 21/22 28, ,663 78,295 29, ,755 86, ,24 39,951 22/23 25, ,951 71,66 3,38 141,397 91, ,722 31,29 23/24 27, ,29 75,21 33, ,958 92, ,192 28,426 24/25 29, ,426 85,284 31, ,285 94, ,783 31,447 Note: Beginning with 197/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states. Page 22 of 24

23 Table 13. Summary of Changes in Estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (1, 48 lb Bales and 1, Ha) Marketing Year Area Harvested Yield Kg/Ha Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Loss Exports Ending Stocks Angola 23/ Argentina 23/ Austria 23/ Azerbaijan; Republic of 23/ Bangladesh 22/ / Brazil 23/ Central African Republic 23/ Chad 23/ Chile 23/ China; Peoples Republic of 23/ Congo; Democratic Rep of th 2/ / / / Cote d'ivoire 2/ / / / Cyprus 22/ / Ecuador 23/ Egypt 23/ Estonia 23/ France 23/ Ghana 23/ Guinea 23/ Hong Kong 23/ India 23/ Page 23 of 24

24 Table 13. Summary of Changes in Estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (1, 48 lb Bales and 1, Ha) Marketing Year Area Harvested Yield Kg/Ha Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Loss Exports Ending Stocks Italy 22/ / Korea; Republic of 23/ Kyrgyzstan; Republic of 21/ / / Lithuania 23/ Malaysia 23/ Mali 23/ Mexico 22/ / Nigeria 23/ Paraguay 23/ Poland 22/ / Portugal 23/ Russian Federation 23/ South Africa; Republic of 23/ Switzerland 23/ Tajikistan; Republic of 23/ Togo 23/ Tunisia 23/ Turkey 23/ Uganda 23/ United States 22/ Uzbekistan; Republic of 23/ World Total 21/ / / Foreign Total 21/22 22/23 23/ Page 24 of 24