THE CHANGING HIGHER EDUCATION LANDSCAPE AND THE ROLE FOR QUALITY ASSURANCE

Transcription

1 THE CHANGING HIGHER EDUCATION LANDSCAPE AND THE ROLE FOR QUALITY ASSURANCE Dirk Van Damme OECD/EDU

2 HIGHER EDUCATION 2

3 divergence HIGHER EDUCATION convergence 3

4 divergence HIGHER EDUCATION convergence 4

5 divergence HIGHER EDUCATION EHEA ESG convergence 5

6 GLOBAL CONVERGENCE 6

7 International research collaboration 7

8 Globally connected networks in research 8

9 Higher demand, more qualifications Below upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary Relative share of attainment levels, y-olds, OECD

10 Education Attainment Gini by region Source: (Wail, Said & Abdelhak, 2011) 10

11 Engines of convergence Research collaboration Common qualification frameworks, credit transfer Converging demand for higher education; internationalization; mobility Integrated higher education areas (EHEA); common quality assurance and recognition arrangements Global rankings fostering mimetic behaviour and shared notions of excellence 11

12 Qualifications embody the power of convergence Qualifications have a common language to enable their readability across systems, especially within the EHEA Quality assurance (should) guarantee their more or less similar quality Qualifications also hold the promise of more or less the same skills equivalent 12

13 BUT IS MORE OF THE SAME THE ANSWER? 13

14 Sweden Estonia Norway Denmark Finland Greece Belgium New Zealand Australia Korea Italy Canada Latvia Netherlands Switzerland Japan Spain United Kingdom Austria France OECD average Luxembourg Israel Poland Ireland Germany Turkey Portugal Czech Republic Slovak Republic Slovenia United States Lithuania Hungary Mexico Costa Rica Colombia Chile Brazil The monetary value of tertiary qualifications are still high to a varying degree among countries Index 250 Earning disadvantage of adults with below upper secondary education Earning advantage of adults with tertiary education

15 but might be inflated by crowding out the mid-skilled on the labour market (polarization) Low skill Middle skill High skill Southern Europe Northern EuropeWestern Europe Total North America Japan Central Europe 15

16 Employability patterns change Employment opportunities by typical education requirements of occupations, historical and projected, in OECD- EU countries Shares of employment growth Source: OECD calculations based on CEDEFOP (2017), EU-CEDEFOP database: Employment trends 16

17 WE ARE QUALIFYING MORE PEOPLE, BUT THERE ARE ALSO MORE DOUBTS ABOUT QUALITY AND RELEVANCE OF THE SKILLS WE DELIVER 17

18 Despite massification, between 90s and 2010s levels of foundation skills have slightly decreased Level 4-5 Level 3 PIAAC Level 2 IALS Level 1 and Below 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 0,5 18

19 also very clearly among higher educated 19

20 In several countries tertiary education does not protect against low foundation skills 20

21 ARE WE SEEING A MISMATCH BETWEEN WHAT EDUCATION PROVIDES AND THE SKILLS THAT SOCIETIES NEED? 21

22 Japan Finland Netherlands Sweden Australia Norway Flanders (Belgium) England/N. Ireland United States Czech Republic Average Poland Canada Austria Germany Ireland France Denmark Estonia Slovak Republic Korea Russian Federation Spain Italy Qualifications do not deliver on the skills equivalent they promise Proportion of year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population 40 Tertiary education % 35 Below upper secondary education 30 Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education

23 Qualifications do not deliver on the skills equivalent they promise 330 Tertiary Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Skill proficiency by attainment level, 25-34y olds

24 Risks of over-qualification Italy Netherlands Flanders (Belgium) Cyprus¹ ² Poland Finland Slovak Republic Denmark Sweden United States Norway Czech Republic Austria Korea Average Spain Germany Estonia Canada Ireland Australia England/N. Ireland (UK) Japan PIAAC,

25 Discrepancies between qualifications and skills Mean numeracy score among adults with ISCED 5A or 6, by selected qualification match or mismatch among workers (PIAAC, 2012 or 2015) Mean score 340 ISCED 5A or 6 degree working in a job needing the same level of qualification (well matched) ISCED 5A or 6 degree working in a job needing ISCED 3 or below (overqualified)

26 Variations in the degree of specialisation of jobs relate to differences in foundation skills 0,47 Increased median worker specialisation 0,465 0,46 0,455 Chile Turkey England/N. Ireland (UK) Greece United States Russian Federation Lithuania Italy Spain Ireland Slovak Republic Poland Canada Flanders (Belgium) Israel Korea France Australia Netherlands Slovenia Singapore New Zealand Japan Denmark Sweden Austria Germany Norway Estonia Finland Czech Republic 0, Median literacy score Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015) 26

27 Variations in the degree of specialisation of jobs tertiary graduates are employed in Finland Czech Republic Austria Germany Norway Estonia Denmark Japan Flanders (Belgium) Australia Singapore United States Slovenia New Zealand Netherlands Sweden Poland England/N. Ireland (UK) Korea Slovak Republic France Canada Chile Turkey Israel Italy Ireland Lithuania Spain Greece Russian Federation 0,45 0,455 0,46 0,465 0,47 more specialised Tertiary Upper secondary or post-secondary nontertiary Below upper secondary 27

28 The broken promise 28

29 CONVERGENCE QUALIFICATIONS DIVERGENCE SKILLS 29

30 Globalization also generates inequalities and exclusion. Is a global higher education system sustainable with important forms of inequality? How strong is the backlash against globalization among the excluded? 30

31 The global higher education system is one the most unequal systems Turkey 2% Canada 2% Germany 2% France 2% United Kingdom 3% Mexico 3% Italy Saudi Arabia Argentina 1% Poland 1%Australia 1% 2% 1% Spain Other 2% 6% Brazil 4% Share of global graduates 2013 Korea 4% Indonesia 4% Russian Japan Federation 6% 10% China 17% United States 14% India 14% Hong Kong 2,0% Korea 2,2% Sweden 2,6% Share in perceived academic excellence THEWUR 2012 Japan 2,5% Switzerland 3,5% France 3,0% Other 8,4% Australia Canada 4,3% 4,3% United States 43,2% United Kingdom 13,8% Germany 4,3% Netherlands 6,0% 31

32 The balance between global and domestic economic value differs among countries Domestic value added share of manufactured exports Foreign value added share of business services exports Foreign value added share of manufactured exports 32

33 Bottom 25% Top 25% Changes in skills development of countries are related to changes in participation in global value chains Increasing participation in global value chains JPN Changes in participation in global value chains and in skills OECD countries, ISL TUR POL CHL USA KOR DEU HUN SWE AUT AUS BEL CAN NLD SVK MEX GBR DNK GRCFRA CHE ESP IRL CZE LUX SVN NOR EST ITA ISR PRT Bottom 25% Top 25% Developing skills to face the challenges of global value chains 33

34 Engines of divergence Institutional diversification of missions, student populations, programme orientation, etc. Maintenance of inequalities, power differences and hierarchies in global National, regional and local contexts and policies higher education system, resistance against level playing field General political and social resistance against globalization, internationalization and migration National and regional differences in skills development, skills use and skills management 34

35 Divergence in skills is related to choices and policies of countries participating unevenly in global value chains, impacting on skills development and skills use Aligning skills output to what countries really need (in the future) is an important task of higher education Mismatches are an important issue, as well as de-skilling as a consequence of low skills use 35

36 DIGITALIZATION WILL AFFECT BOTH THE DEMAND OF SKILLS AND THE SUPPLY OF QUALIFICATIONS 36

37 Less digital workplaces lead to skills obsolescence more digitalization fosters skills Expected problem solving skills most digital workplace (above median in both non-routine and ICT intensities) 270 less digital workplace (below median) Years since leaving education Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015) 37

38 Digitalisation drives the need for further learning Share of workers reporting needing further training for their job by education level (%) highly digital environment poorly digital environment 10 0 Lower secondary or less Upper secondary Post-secondary, non-tertiary Tertiary professional degree Tertiary bachelor degree Tertiary master / research degree 38

39 Alternative ways and channels of learning SHARE OF INDIVIDUALS IN EUROPEAN UNION (28 COUNTRIES) Reading online news sites/newspapers/news magazines Participating in social networks Seeking health information Consulting wikis (to obtain knowledge ) Online learning material other than a complete online course Communicating with instructors or students using educational websites/portals Doing an online course

40 New credentials: open badges, nanodegrees, micro-credentials, etc. 40

41 Some important effects of digitalization and AI Digitalization will gradually undermine the value and life-span of qualifications But it will drive learning and skills development Across the life-cycle of people lifelong learning It will generate new forms of recognition of learning It will require universities to adapt, much beyond integrating ICT in the delivery process 41

42 SOME QUESTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 42

43 Some questions about the future of HEd Will assessment of students/graduates move away from institutions to the other side? Will digital badges and portfolios gradually become as or more important than qualifications? Will qualifications lose the battle with skills? Will qualifications remain a kind of insurance mechanism for those who lose out on skills? Will alternative modes of learning and skills development become dominant? 43

44 Some challenges Higher education is affected by convergence as well as divergence and the power struggle between both forces Global inequalities, power and reputation differences and a uneven playing field will remain The conflict between qualifications and skills is a systemic risk for the sector and might lead to loss of social trust in qualifications and the end of credentialism 44

45 What does this mean for QA? The skills demand in the environment is as relevant for quality than the global standards associated with qualifications Finding the middle between Absolutism: universal quality standards valid for all qualifications across the globe/region/area Relativism: quality standards with sole reference to narrow skills demands 45

46 What does this mean for QA? To keep qualifications relevant and trustworthy the external world need to have trust in the mechanisms that guarantee their quality and relevance The recent institutional turn in QA might be useful for institutional purposes, but risks to devalue its external functions of transparency, accountability and trust-building in the public domain 46

47 Thank you! 47