Quarterly Report 4Q13

Transcription

1 Eagle Mountain- Saginaw Independent School District Quarterly Report 4Q13 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Texas nonfarm employment growth was up 2.3% in 4Q13, well above the U.S. increase of 1.5%. (BLS/TWC) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office) Texas $18.7 billion in exports for November 2013 represented more than 18% of all U.S. exports, a percentage that has steadily increasing since (Census Bureau and Wisertrade) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (December 2013) - U.S. 6.5% - Texas 5.6% - DFW MSA 5.4% - Tarrant County 5.3% GE Transportation is adding 220 new high tech jobs to the North Fort Worth locomotive plant in Lockheed Martin s recent new F-35 deal could lead to more than 2,400 new manufacturing jobs over the next several years. DFW builders put up 21,236 new homes in 2013, a 19% increase over (Metrostudy)

3 National Economic Overview Texas has 4 of the top 10 fastest growing MSAs! 1. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos TX 2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 3. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4. Raleigh-Cary, NC 5. Salt Lake City, UT 6. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellvue, WA 7. Provo-Orem, UT 8. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 9. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 10. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Source: Forbes

4 Texas Economic Overview Texas Energy is Key to Growth Oil and natural gas production tax collections for the first 3 months of fiscal 2014 were 40% higher than during the same period in After a high of $ per barrel in July 2008 and a low of $33.98 in Feb. 2009, crude oil futures settled at $98.77 on Dec. 19, After a high of $13.58 per MMBtu in July 2008 then a low of $2.51 in Sept. 2009, natural gas futures settled at $4.46 on Dec. 19, 2013.

5 DFW Economic Overview Annualized Job Creation (83,700 November 2013 year over year) -0.2% Texas Oil & Gas Production (Fiscal 1Q14 year over year) Average Home Price ($226,000) -26% 2.7% Unemployment (5.4% December 2013 year over year) 10% 40% Home Inventory (2.6 Month s Supply) Source: Milken Institute

6 Annual Starts & Closings DFW Housing Market Single Family Homes: Starts & Closes 60,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 21,135 19,772 10,000-4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13

7 DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Dec-13 % Change YTD Sales 88,562 17% Average Price $226,005 10% Median Price $174,000 11% Listings 19,100-13% DOM 59-19% Months Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

8 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 4Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,931 2,704 3,794 8,935 2 Northwest ISD 1,266 1,187 1,717 21,974 3 Denton ISD 1,300 1,152 2,510 13,902 4 Lewisville ISD ,733 2,911 5 Dallas ISD ,207 7,333 6 Prosper ISD ,561 15,686 7 Keller ISD ,216 3,217 8 McKinney ISD ,238 7,203 9 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD ,515 19, Mansfield ISD , Little Elm ISD , Allen ISD , Rockwall ISD ,639 8, Plano ISD , Forney ISD ,331 11, Crowley ISD ,762 8, Burleson ISD , Wylie ISD , Fort Worth ISD , Midlothian ISD ,547 Totals 21,236 20,019 46, ,066

9 Foreclosures

10 New Housing Activity Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total 1, Annual Starts are up over 700 units for the first time since 2008, up 15.5% over Closings for 2013 are up 19.7% over last year Annualized Inventory was 330 units for 2013, a 5.6 month s supply.

11 Annual Closing Distribution 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Annual Rank Subdivision Starts Starts Closings Quarter Closings 1 Santa Fe Trails (Ft Worth North) Marine Creek Ranch (Greenfield) Twin Mills (Ft Worth) Ridgeview Farms Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) LakePointe Quail Grove Liberty Crossing (Ft. Worth) Marine Creek Hills Terrace Landing TOTALS

12 Vacant Developed Lots 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Resort on Eagle Mountain Lake Eagle Mountain Ranch - Lake Pointe Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) Marine Creek Ranch (Greenfield) Twin Mills (Ft Worth) Terrace Landing Meadow Lakes (Ft. Worth) LakePointe Innisbrook Place Santa Fe Trails (Ft Worth North) TOTALS 968 3,562

13 Future Lots 4Q13 Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Chapel Hill (Ft Worth) 35 4,713 2 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (EMSISD) 0 3,523 3 Water's Bend/Fossil Park Liberty Crossing (Ft. Worth) Marine Creek Ranch (Parkview) Bar C Ranch Boswell Meadows Eagle Mountain Ranch - Lake Pointe LakePointe Stone Creek Ranch TOTALS ,375

14 Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Inventory VDL Future BRYSON CHISHOLM RIDGE COMANCHE SPRINGS EAGLE MOUNTAIN ELKINS GILILLAND GREENFIELD HIGH COUNTRY LAKE POINTE NORTHBROOK PARKVIEW REMINGTON POINT SAGINAW WILLOW CREEK Grand Total ,515 19,968 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

15 Enrollment History Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2009/10 1,244 1,326 1,313 1,304 1,280 1,298 1,251 1,188 1,281 1,374 1, , % 2010/11 1,358 1,338 1,356 1,296 1,279 1,369 1,324 1,269 1,226 1,410 1, , % 2011/12 1,381 1,367 1,361 1,389 1,341 1,289 1,402 1,331 1,292 1,281 1,301 1, , % 2012/13 1,437 1,448 1,364 1,360 1,395 1,354 1,337 1,401 1,349 1,399 1,249 1, , % 2013/14 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 1,077 18, % Cohort Analysis cohort K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Roll-up Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll-up 1,419 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 18, year cohort 1,401 1,463 1,447 1,441 1,388 1,393 1,499 1,448 1,359 1,483 1,401 1,308 1,060 18, year Avg Co 1,490 1,481 1,501 1,419 1,399 1,397 1,470 1,427 1,394 1,501 1,321 1,245 1,093 18,

16 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2009/10 1,244 1,326 1,313 1,304 1,280 1,298 1,251 1,188 1,281 1,374 1, , % 2010/11 1,358 1,338 1,356 1,296 1,279 1,369 1,324 1,269 1,226 1,410 1, , % 2011/12 1,381 1,367 1,361 1,389 1,341 1,289 1,402 1,331 1,292 1,281 1,301 1, , % 2012/13 1,437 1,448 1,364 1,360 1,395 1,354 1,337 1,401 1,349 1,399 1,249 1, , % 2013/14 1,419 1,482 1,414 1,390 1,358 1,431 1,418 1,365 1,395 1,434 1,367 1,195 1,077 18, % 2014/15 1,446 1,481 1,507 1,437 1,424 1,383 1,481 1,454 1,387 1,503 1,355 1,284 1,088 18, % 2015/16 1,486 1,506 1,505 1,528 1,461 1,453 1,428 1,509 1,477 1,495 1,420 1,268 1,176 19, % 2016/17 1,524 1,549 1,523 1,532 1,551 1,493 1,508 1,459 1,542 1,593 1,416 1,331 1,185 19, % 2017/18 1,570 1,610 1,579 1,553 1,561 1,594 1,554 1,540 1,484 1,660 1,507 1,327 1,244 20, % 2018/19 1,615 1,654 1,645 1,614 1,586 1,607 1,654 1,586 1,568 1,598 1,570 1,411 1,240 20, % 2019/20 1,664 1,708 1,694 1,683 1,649 1,628 1,672 1,689 1,616 1,688 1,513 1,471 1,319 21, % 2020/21 1,701 1,759 1,749 1,734 1,722 1,695 1,694 1,707 1,717 1,739 1,597 1,417 1,375 22, % 2021/22 1,748 1,800 1,801 1,792 1,774 1,771 1,763 1,729 1,738 1,847 1,645 1,496 1,325 22, % 2022/23 1,797 1,852 1,845 1,847 1,834 1,826 1,842 1,800 1,760 1,869 1,747 1,541 1,399 23, % 2023/24 1,851 1,904 1,899 1,893 1,893 1,887 1,899 1,880 1,833 1,893 1,768 1,636 1,441 24, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

17 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus HISTORY ENROLLMENT PROJECTS Campus Name Capacity 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 HAFLEY DEVELOPMENT CENTER BRYSON ELEMENTARY CHISHOLM RIDGE ELEMENTARY ,051 1,107 COMANCHE SPRINGS ELEMENTARY ,004 EAGLE MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY ELKINS ELEMENTARY GILILLAND ELMENTARY GREENFIELD ELEMENTARY HIGH COUNTRY ELEMENTARY LAKE POINTE ELEMENTARY ,007 1,056 NORTHBROOK ELEMENTARY PARKVIEW ELEMENTARY ,059 1,135 1,212 REMINGTON POINT ELEMENTARY SAGINAW ELEMENTARY WILLOW CREEK ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTALS 10,315 8,847 8,903 9,087 9,348 9,581 9,876 10,130 10,435 10,769 11,095 11,410 11,736 Elementary Percent Change 2.717% 0.63% 2.07% 2.87% 2.49% 3.08% 2.57% 3.01% 3.20% 3.03% 2.84% 2.86% Elementary Absolute Change

18 Ten Year Forecast By Middle School & High School Campus HISTORY ENROLLMENT PROJECTS Campus Name Capacity 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 CREEKVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,015 HIGHLAND MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,010 PRAIRIE VISTA MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,018 1,063 1,078 1,071 1,104 1,138 WAYSIDE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,024 1,096 1,172 1,215 1,266 WILLKIE MIDDLE SCHOOL 1, ,038 1,062 1,093 1,125 1,171 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 5,134 4,087 4,175 4,319 4,411 4,506 4,575 4,805 4,974 5,115 5,227 5,399 5,610 Middle School Percent Change 1.77% 2.15% 3.45% 2.13% 2.15% 1.53% 5.03% 3.52% 2.83% 2.19% 3.29% 3.91% Middle School Absolute Change BOSWELL HIGH SCHOOL 1,849 1,734 1,578 1,558 1,666 1,745 1,757 1,860 1,865 1,921 2,031 2,095 SAGINAW HIGH SCHOOL 1,980 1,901 1,781 1,830 1,886 1,953 1,998 2,022 2,080 2,144 2,207 2,264 CHISHOLM TRAIL HIGH SCHOOL 842 1,331 1,765 1,864 1,866 1,933 1,958 2,002 2,077 2,140 2,211 2,272 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 4,797 5,076 5,234 5,362 5,528 5,741 5,823 5,994 6,132 6,316 6,559 6,741 High School Percent Change 7.87% 5.82% 3.11% 2.45% 3.09% 3.86% 1.42% 2.94% 2.30% 3.00% 3.85% 2.77% High School Absolute Change DISTRICT TOTALS 17,731 18,154 18,640 19,121 19,615 20,192 20,758 21,403 22,016 22,638 23,368 24,087 District Percent Change 3.41% 2.39% 2.68% 2.58% 2.58% 2.94% 2.80% 3.11% 2.86% 2.82% 3.23% 3.08% District Absolute Change

19 Summary Annual Starts are up over 700 units for the first time since 2008, up 15.5% over Vacant Developed Lot supply is in good position to sustain new housing growth. Comanche Springs, Parkview and Lake Pointe with the highest activity of new home starts representing more than 60% of the total starts for the district. EMS ISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,604 students during the next 5 years. 2018/19 enrollment projection 20,758. EMS ISD is projected to have over 24,000 students for the 2023/24 school year.