Social Sector Development: A Perspective from Punjab Isher Judge Ahluwalia February 10, 2010 1
Presentation Scheme I. Punjab at a Glance II. Issues in Social Sector Development III. Conclusion 2
I. Punjab at a Glance I.1 A Profile I.2 Economic Growth I.3 Stagnation in Agriculture I.4 Industrial Deficit I.5 Industrial Stagnation I.6 Weak and Vulnerable Finances 3
I.1 A Profile One of the richest states of India 6 th Rank in per capita income. Lowest incidence of poverty - 8.4 per cent All-India incidence - 27.5 per cent Highest proportion of scheduled castes - 29 per cent All-India proportion - 16 per cent 4
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% I.2 Economic Growth Lagging behind India 6.7 Punjab 6.3 5 GDP growth 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09(AE) Ambition lowered Growth Targets Punjab India 10th plan 6.4 8.0 11th plan 5.9 9.0 (Lowest of all states)
I.3 Stagnation in Agriculture A. Stagnating yields of wheat and paddy Meager investment in irrigation Subsidies preempt resources for investment Declining water tables Free electricity encourages pumps for groundwater Free water discourages conservation Deterioration in Soil Quality Imbalanced use of fertilizers Mono-cropping Neglect of research B. Highly sub-optimal Crop Diversification Lack of institutions for risk mitigation Inertia - procurement policies, APMC Act. 6
I.4 Industrial Deficit 40 Gujarat 35 30 Industrial Share, 2007-08 25 20 15 10 Orissa Assam MP Rajas than UP WB Karnataka AP TN Punjab 16.3 22.0 Maharashtra 5 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Ke rala Haryana Bihar Per Capita Income, 2007-08 Source: Central Statistical Organisation. 7
I.5 Industrial Stagnation Large scale industry Meager presence Moved out to other states Small scale industry Little modernization Factors behind industrial stagnation Land unaffordable Administrative apathy and Corruption Power scarcity Non-utilization of Central schemes Skill shortages Little connect between industrial policy and Punjab s rich agricultural base An Agrarian mind-set 8
I.6 Weak and Vulnerable Finances 8 7 6 5 Fiscal Deficit 4 3 2 1 0-1 P unjab TN/ Gujarat Haryana 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 M aharashtra -2 P unjab Haryana Gujarat Maharashtra Tamil Nadu 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Revenue Deficit Punjab 0-1 -2-3 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Gujarat Haryana/ TN Maharashtra Punjab Haryana Gujarat Maharashtra Tamil Nadu 12 10 8 6 Own Tax to GSDP Ratio TN Maharashtra Haryana Punjab Gujarat 4 2 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Punjab Haryana Gujarat Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Source: Finance Department, Punjab and Planning Commission. 9
II. Issues in Social Sector Development II.1 Social Outcomes II.2 Declining Social Sector Expenditures II.3 Education II.4 Health II.5 Gender Deficit 10
II.1 Social Outcomes Punjab s Rank Among Major States 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Poverty Reduction Least Underweight Children Life Expectancy HDI Literacy Female Literacy Immunization IMR MMR Anaemia in Childern Sex Ratio Overall Sex Ratio, 0-6 Note: Infant Mortality for 2008, HDI, Literacy and gender variables for 2001, Life expectancy for 2002-2006, Maternal Mortality for 2004-2006, Poverty for 2004-05, others for 2005-06. Sources: Planning Commission, National Family Health Survey, Sample Registration System, and Census. 11
II.2 Declining Social Sector Expenditures (per cent of GSDP) 5 4 Total 3.48 3 2 Education 1.97 1 0 Sources: Budget Documents. 12 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Per cent Health 0.55 Fiscal Year
II.3 Education II.3a Excellent Physical Infrastructure Punjab Ranked in top 3 on Educational Infrastructure Index Elements of Educational Infrastructure Index: Availability of drinking water - 97 per cent Common toilets - 90 per cent Toilets for girls - 80 per cent Access to schools in Rural Areas Punjab - 93.5 per cent All-India - 87 per cent Source: National University of Educational Planning and Administration ( NUEPA) 13
II.3b Very Poor Learning Outcomes Punjab Ranked 25 th on Educational Outcome Index Elements of Educational Outcome Index: Punjab India Boys securing 60 per cent and more 40.8 50.2 Girls securing 60 per cent and more 44.8 50.5 Repetition rate 7.7 5.2 Drop-out rate 2.9 8.0 Gross enrollment ratio 76.2 115.3 Transition rate from primary to upper primary 100.0 82.7 Gender parity index in enrollment 0.8 0.9 SCs enrollment 50.6 19.9 STs enrolment 0.1 11.7 Source: National University of Educational Planning and Administration ( NUEPA) 14
II.3c Survey Findings on Learning Outcomes NCERT Class Language Mathematics Class Language Mathematics Ranking of Punjab III V 2004 2008 2002 2007 25/ 29 14/ 32 17/ 30 23/ 33 22/ 29 22/ 32 8/30 10/33 Mean Marks Attained (Percent) III V 2008 2007 Punjab India Punjab India 67.2 < 67.8 57.8 < 60.3 58.1 < 61.9 48.4 < 48.5 VII-VIII 2004 2008 27/ 27 5/32 17/ 27 8/32 VIII 2008 Punjab India 62.0 > 56.7 44.1 > 41.2 15
II.3c Survey Findings on Learning Outcomes NCERT (Contd..) Except for Upper Primary (class VII/VIII) in 2008, Punjab ranks rather low among 30 or so states/uts. For class III, very poor ranking in mathematics, and some improvement in language from very poor in 2004 to middling rank in 2008. For class V, deterioration with very poor rank in language and middling rank in mathematics in 2007. Only in Upper Primary in 2008 the mean marks obtained in Punjab are higher than the average for all-india, reflecting a significant improvement from 2004. 16
II.3c Survey Findings on Learning Outcomes ASER 2009 Class V students Punjab Haryana Gujarat Tamil Nadu Maharashtra All-India Who cannot read level two text 35.7 34.2 55.6 64.7 26.2 47.2 Who cannot divide 51.1 45.3 75.4 86.1 49.0 62.0 Class VIII students Punjab Haryana Gujarat Tamil Nadu Maharashtra All-India Who cannot read level two text 13.1 13.6 22.8 30.9 8.5 17.5 Who cannot divide 26.3 17.9 43.7 58.0 20.2 31.3 Parho Punjab Initiative for Remedial Teaching 2008 Improvement Class V students From To Who can read stories 46 58 Who can divide 29 40 Digital Equalizer 2008 17
II.3e Possible Explanations for Poor Outcomes High incidence of teacher absenteeism More than 34 per cent of teachers absent during unannounced visits to government schools - third highest among 19 surveyed states (Kremer et al, 2003) 15 per cent absenteeism in primary schools - amongst the highest of all states and deteriorated between 2007 and 2009 (ASER) 18
II.3e Possible Explanations.(Contd..) Factors behind Teacher Absenteeism Teachers hired at state level with transferability across the state Strong Trade Unions ensure job security Appointments, promotions, transfers - strong political influence System of supervision non-existent Accountability to remote authorities implies that teachers can get away with absenteeism and/or subcontracting teaching 19
II.3e Possible Explanations.(Contd..) Teacher Recruitment Scenario Maximum age limit for new entrants 42, pressures to raise further Gender discrimination in recruitment Questionable practices, court stay orders on recruitment Vacancies of teachers 20,815 against a total strength of 96,601 sanctioned posts, as of 2007-08 Student-Teacher Ratio of 38-14 th among major states Poor Inspection System Political dominance of institutions of regulations/standards 20
II.3f Market Response A rapidly rising demand for good education in a rich state like Punjab has generated a market response - proliferation of private primary schools More than 85 per cent of the private primary schools are unrecognized Private Unrecognized schools account for 25 per cent of total enrollment: Teachers with higher academic qualification Teachers paid substantially less than government teachers Have more favorable pupil-teacher ratios A greater percentage of female teachers A greater percentage is English medium 21
II.3g Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan Opportunity for Reform Only 5-6 per cent allocated for teachers training, teaching equipment, research, evaluation, monitoring and supervision, etc. Only 4-5 per cent of funds set aside for innovative activities for improving course content, using IT in education, etc. Utilization of funds compares poorly with other comparator states till 2007-08, but close to 100 per cent in 2008-09 Significant improvement in 2008-09 both in allocation pattern and utilization of funds 22
II.4 Health Health outcomes not commensurate with the high per capita income and extensive infrastructure of healthcare a. Infant Mortality Rate 600 b. Maternal Mortality Ratio IMR, 2008 100 90 80 UP 70 60 50 Bihar 40 30 20 10 0 MP Orissa Rajas than Assam AP Gujarat Haryana Punjab Karnataka WB Maharashtra TN Kerala 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 MMR, 2004-06 500 400 300 200 100 Bihar UP MP Assam Orissa Rajasthan WB Karnataka Guj Punjab Kerala Maharashtr a Haryana 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 AP TN PCY, 2007-08 PCY, 2004-06 Immunization, 2005-06 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Bihar UP MP c. Basic Immunization Orissa Assam Rajasthan Karnataka Kerala Haryana Punjab/ Maharashtra 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 WB AP TN Gujarat Underweight Childern,2005-06 d. Underweight Childern 70 60 Bihar MP 50 Gujarat 40 Orissa Rajasthan WB Haryana UP Karnatak 30 Assam Maharashtra AP T 20 N Kerala Punjab 10 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 PCY, 2005-06 Per Capita Income, 2005-06 100 e. Anaemia among childern Anaemia among childern, 6-35 months, 2005-06 90 80 70 60 50 Bihar UP MP Orissa Rajasthan Assam Karnataka Gujarat AP Kerala Punjab Haryan a 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 WB TN Maharashtra PCY, 2005-06 Note: Exceptions, Nutrition and IMR 23
III (b). Health II.4a Weak Institutions of Delivery Fundamental problems in the functioning of the healthcare system in the state stem from weak institutions of delivery as well as heavy political interference in the deployment of health personnel, and in the management of health centres and hospitals Centralized hiring and ineffective supervision encourages absenteeism and indiscipline Outsourcing primary health care to private sector- mixed results 24
II.4a Weak Institutions III (b). Health of Delivery (Contd..) Recruitment scenario Restrictive policies in the hiring began in 1997, and grew worse with growing fiscal stress 18 per cent of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives (ANM) positions in Punjab were vacant, as of 2007-08 60 per cent of the obstetrics/gynecology positions were vacant in Community Health Centres and subdistrict hospitals, as of 2007-08 Flexibility provided in National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) is highly inadequately utilized 25
II.4b Maternal Mortality Lower social status of women in society comes in the way of using existing infrastructure of better and safer delivery Only 52.5 per cent of the births at institutions Only 68.6 per cent attended by the skilled health personnel Both much lower than other states 26
II.4c Poor State of Water and Sanitation Gains of nutrition are drained away by diseases resulting from unsafe drinking water and the poor state of sanitation. The Government of Punjab has initiated a project with the Naandi Foundation for providing safe drinking water at a nominal charge. 27
II.5 Gender Deficit 1100 Child Sex Ratio Sex ratio 0-6, 2001 1000 900 Bihar UP Orissa Assam MP Rajasthan AP/ WB Karnataka Gujarat TN Kerala Maharashtra Haryana 800 Punjab 700 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 PCY, 2001-02 Punjab s child sex ratio below the expected level. 28
II.5 Gender Deficit (Contd..) Declining and the lowest child sex ratio of 798 among all states. Of the 10 districts in India that have the lowest child sex ratio, 7 are in Punjab (UNDP 2004) Evidence of turnaround in few districts:- In Nawanshahr child sex ratio improved from as low as 774 in March 2005 to over 900 in 77 out of the 475 villages of the district by March 2006, due to a vigorous drive of the social audit of pregnant mothers, the medical audit of scanning centres, and the active involvement of NGOs, religious leaders, and young students. 29
III. Conclusion 1. Physical infrastructure takes you only so far 2. Private sector offers no panacea, specially for the poor 3. Institutions for delivery have to improve 4. Governance reform crucial 5. Innovation - Use of IT, Digital Equalizer 30