University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll David P. Redlawsk, Director Caroline Tolbert, Co-Director Department of Political Science http://ssrc.uiowa.edu http://www.polisci.uiowa.edu http://www.uiowa.edu/election david-redlawsk@uiowa.edu caroline-tolbert@uiowa.edu
UI Social Science Research Center Mission: to provide social science research infrastructure and make it available to a wide variety of constituents who conduct social scientific research at The University of Iowa The Social Science Research Center 311 Calvin Hall http://www.ssrc.uiowa.edu Kevin Leicht Professor & Director
DAVID REDLAWSK Director Associate Professor of Political Science THE HAWKEYE POLL. The Hawkeye Poll is Part of the teaching/learning mission of the University as well as a rigorously designed public opinion polling operation; A platform for academic research on political and public policy topics; An experience for UI students in survey research that connects to their academic work as they serve as trained callers and work with results in their classes; A resource to increase our understanding of what citizens are thinking about issues that face Iowa and nation. CAROLINE TOLBERT Co Director Associate Professor of Political Science
Telephone survey in field October 17-24 Random sample of Iowa Caucus Goers 306 Democratic Caucus Goers, +/- 5.5% 285 Republican Caucus Goers, +/- 5.8% Part of a larger scale ongoing research project at the University of Iowa
REPUBLICAN CAUCUS CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Romney 36.2% Giuliani 13.1% Huckabee 12.8% Thompson 11.4% McCain 6.0% Don t Know 14.9% No other candidate over 3% Summary Mitt Romney has increased his Iowa lead since early August, when he registered 27.8% Huckabee s Straw Poll bounce continues, going from 1.8% in early August to 12.8% now Giuliani had second place to himself in August, now a threeway tie for second
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Support for Republican Candidates in 2007 Romney Don't Know Giuliani Huckabee Thompson McCain March August Oct
Republican Caucus Support by Gender Men Women 37.8 34.4 19.2 16.0 13.0 12.6 13.0 10.6 9.9 9.9 Giuliani Huckabee Romney Thompson Don't Know Gender in the Republican Caucus Race Giuliani and Thompson both do better among men than women Romney is the only Republican doing better among women than men Women twice as likely to not yet have a preference
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Republican Caucus Support by Age 43.1 30.8 30.4 18.6 18.7 13.5 14.7 14.7 13.5 10.6 11.5 11.5 10.8 8.9 8.9 Giuliani Huckabee Romney Thompson Don't Know Age in the Republican Caucus Race Romney has very strong support among the oldest Caucus goers Huckabee is most competitive among the Baby Boomers 18 to 44 45 to 60 Over 60
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Republican Caucus Candidate Support Among Christian Voters 14.4 12.6 6.5 21.6 41.7 29.7 13.0 14.4 10.8 11.7 Giuliani Huckabee Romney Thompson Don't Know Does not identify as "Born Again" Identifies as "Born Again" Religious Voters and Republican Candidates Romney does best among those Republicans who do not consider themselves born again Huckabee s support is concentrated among born again Christians Thompson is not gaining the support of this group
Summary: The Republicans Hawkeye Poll Mitt Romney continues his dominance in Iowa, increasing his lead. While Mike Huckabee has gained ground dramatically since the August Hawkeye Poll, he is still well behind Rudy Giuliani who seems stuck, and Fred Thompson, who is catching on slowly if at all. John McCain has not been able to recover from his collapse during the summer. The number of Republicans with no preference dropped sharply, indicating voters are beginning to focus on candidates. The key to the race for anyone but Romney is to figure out how to motivate Christian conservatives. Realistically Giuliani has little chance of doing so, leaving it hard to see how he can improve unless Romney slips up. Huckabee would seem to have the best chance of motivating these voters, if they are looking for someone other than Romney.
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Clinton 28.9% Obama 26.6% Edwards 20.0% Richardson 7.2% Biden 5.3% Don t Know 8.9% No other candidate over 3% Hawkeye Poll Summary Support for Edwards dropped from 26.0% in August, while Obama increased from 19.3% and Clinton increased from 24.8% The Democrats continue to have three leading candidates, no other candidate is close to them Edwards drop has occurred as Caucus goers give new attention to Biden and Obama
40 Support for Democratic Candidates in 2007 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Biden Clinton Obama Edwards Don't Know March August Oct Richardson
33.0 Democratic Caucus Support, by Gender Women Men Gender plays a role for the Democrats 22.5 16.8 25.0 26.5 26.7 Men s preferences: Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton 10.3 6.7 Women s preferences: Clinton, then Obama, then Edwards Clinton Edwards Obama Don't Know
Support for Hillary Clinton during 2007 by Gender Women Men Difference = Gender Gap Gender plays a role for the Democrats 31.7 22.3 24.8 33.0 22.5 Clinton gender gap grew in October over August 18.1 9.4 6.7 10.5 Largest gender gap yet March August October
45.0 40.0 Democratic Caucus Support by Age Group 41.2 Age is an important factor for the Democrats 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 19.1 30.7 31.4 26.3 24.0 21.1 16.2 16.5 14.1 7.4 4.4 Clinton Edwards Obama Don't Know 18 to 44 45 to 60 Over 60 Obama is the overwhelming choice of Caucus goers under 45 years old Clinton does well among all those 45 and over Edwards greatest support is from Baby Boomers
Candidate Preference in Union Households Labor Support 30 25 20 15 10 5 28 26 19 14 6 7 Clinton and Edwards are strongest among the 18% of households with a union member Richardson s support among union households is much greater than his overall support 0 Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Other Don't Know
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 8.1 "Very Likely" to Support Gore if He Enters Presidential Race 21.7 23.4 Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Don't Know Candidate Currently Supporting 14.3 30.8 What if AL GORE Ran? 19.6% of Democrats would be very likely and 34.5% would be somewhat likely to support him Few Clinton supporters would be very likely to support Gore, but more than 1 in 5 Edwards and Obama supporters would. Nearly a third of don t knows say they would support Gore.
Summary: The Democrats Hawkeye Poll After trailing during most of the year, Clinton is now leading with Obama close behind. Clinton s support stems primarily from her dominance among female Caucus goers. Obama s support comes disproportionately from younger voters. The key for either candidate is to mobilize their bases. This is likely to be much harder for Obama than for Clinton, since historically Caucus goers are older. We see clear evidence of the difficulty Obama faces: only 48% of his supporters say they are Very Likely to caucus and only 54% actually did caucus in 2004. Edwards may still be positioned to challenge both of the other top Democrats. While now trailing, he remains close among those most likely to caucus and 75% of his supporters are experienced caucus goers.
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1.4 Democrats Republicans 7.2 A bortion 15.8 15.8 Most Important Issue by Party Economy 6.7 4.0 5.7 1.1 Educ ation 23.2 Environment 9.7 Health Care 2.4 13.7 34.9 Im migration 15.5 Iraq War 1.7 21.9 Terrorism What are the Issues? Democrats and Republicans differ some on perceptions of the most important issue. For Democrats: Iraq, Health care, the Economy are the top three For Republicans, Terrorism, the Economy, and Iraq are the top three
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Democrats 14.7 Immigration Policies by Party Republicans 29.7 12.0 16.5 66.9 51.7 Deport All Guest Worker Earned Citizenship Permanant residency 6.5 2.2 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 14.2 Reponsible for Immigration Situation Democrats Republicans 19.5 Undocumented Immigrants 57.3 49.2 Employers 28.5 31.3 Immigration Policies Immigration in Iowa No change in policy preference or responsibility assignment over time. The issue remains important, and Republicans remain somewhat more likely to advocate deportation, though the majority chooses earned citizenship.
Satisfaction with Candidates by Party Republicans seem less happy than Democrats 80 60 40 20 20 10 69 50 11 40 40% of Democrats are Very Satisfied with their candidates, while only 11% of Republicans say the same 0 Not Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Republicans Democrats
80 70 72 66 Iowa Caucus Goers Campaign Involvement 70 67 Republicans are less engaged in the caucus campaigns overall 60 50 40 30 20 30 22 42 31 Dem Rep On all our measures, Republicans are less likely than Democrats to be focusing on the campaign. 10 0 Thought quite a lot about the election Followed campaign very closely Watched at least one debate Excited by the campaigns Even so, lots of Iowa caucus goers are paying attention!
Plans for the University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Continuing Polling through the Iowa Caucuses Pre and Post Iowa Caucus Telephone Survey/Panel Study In-Caucus survey in all 1784 Democratic caucuses Collection of a comprehensive dataset of Iowa Caucus goers Post Caucus Polling Planning for a national sample survey before/after Feb 5 primaries Continued monitoring of the general election battleground in Iowa
David P. Redlawsk, Director Caroline Tolbert, Co-Director Department of Political Science Special Thanks to our crack Polling Team: Daniel Bowen, Nick Martini, James Rydberg, Howard Sanborn, Tina Wildhagen, and Brigid Freymuller Funding provided by the University of Iowa Office of the Provost and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences