Wednesday, uary 23, 2008 5 pages Contacts: Krista Jenkins: 973.443.8390 or Peter Woolley: 973.670, 3239 Hillary Clinton: The most likely and unlikely choice among New Jersey voters but youth and women among her biggest supporters New Jersey voters chose Senator Hillary Clinton as the candidate they d be the most likely and most unlikely to support in the general election, according to a new study from Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind. In a survey conducted from uary 14 through uary 20, likely primary voters, regardless of party affiliation, were asked who among the field of candidates they are most likely and most unlikely to support for president. Clinton tops both lists with 25 and 27 percent, respectively. Rounding out the list of candidates that New Jerseyans are most likely to support are Barack Obama (18%), John McCain (10%), and Rudy Giuliani (8%). After Clinton s 27%, Giuliani (17%) and Mike Huckabee (13%) top the list of candidates that Garden State likely voters say they will not support. The fact that Senator Clinton tops the lists of likely and unlikely candidates is a reflection of her often polarizing effect on people, said Krista Jenkins, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst with PublicMind. As has often been the case since her entrance into public life, Senator Clinton elicits strong opinions from people both positive and negative and what we see here is proof of both the unique support and opposition that her candidacy brings. Among those who chose Clinton as their most favored candidate, more than half (52%) say that it s her stance on the issues that they find the most appealing. These numbers are good for Senator Clinton, said Jenkins. When a majority of supporters clearly identify issues as the major reason for their support, it means that she is communicating her message effectively. She can build on this strength in order to attract more supporters. But when it comes to understanding what drives opposition to Senator Clinton, her detractors are evenly divided over whether they most dislike her issue positions (30%), personal qualities (33%), or both (32%). Rudy Giuliani, the second least favored candidate, generates opposition that follows a similar pattern. When I see numbers like these, it means that people who don t like Clinton and Giuliani can t quite put their finger on why they really don t like them, said Jenkins. The fact that Mike Huckabee, who is the third least favored candidate for president, generates opposition based on his stance on issues (65%) makes sense, according to Jenkins. He s an evangelical Baptist minister running in a moderate, northeast state. Voters have an easier time identifying why they don t like him compared to Clinton and Giuliani. Clinton gets more support from New Jersey women than any other candidate, Republican or Democratic. Women support Clinton by almost two to one over her closest Democratic rival, Senator Obama (30 vs. 17 percent, respectively). And when it comes to support for Republican candidates, female support for Clinton eclipses McCain s and Giuliani s by more than three to one. Another notable finding is the large number of women who remain undecided. One-in-four likely female primary voters remain uncertain regarding whom to support. These numbers are good for Senator Clinton. Her already significant lead over other candidates means there s still more
support to be gained by trying to appeal to those women who are still shopping for the right candidate, said Jenkins. The survey also suggests that the support Obama garnered in other states from youth is likely to be shared with Clinton in New Jersey. Although Senator Obama is clearly attractive to young voters, the same can be said for Senator Clinton. Likely voters 29 and younger are drawn to both of these historic candidates. Young people are looking for something different than the same old white guy in a suit that they so often identify with politicians. This is why a female and African-American candidate are connecting so strongly with young people both here and around the country. They ve also been active in reaching out to young voters and inviting their support, something that helps to motivate youth to take part in politics, said Jenkins. Primary voters mull over their choices against a backdrop of dissatisfaction with the incumbent president. Only a fifth (20%) say they approve of the job President Bush is doing, a seven point drop from October. And stark partisan differences are evident, with just 4 percent of Democrats approving of President Bush but about half of Republicans approving of him (48%). Three-fourths of primary voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction and a majority of Republicans (57%) agree with Democrats (86%) and independents (72%) on this question. Talk of economic recession is contributing to the gloomy perception that our country is on the wrong track. said Jenkins. When it comes to the war in Iraq, the number of those who believe things are going very or fairly well remains essentially unchanged since October (37 versus 35 percent, respectively). The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 797 likely primary voters statewide was conducted by telephone from uary 14 through uary 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. More detail on methods is available on the Web. Tables, questions, and methodology available on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846. For more information, please call (201) 692-7032. Background Memo and Tables The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from. 14 through. 20 using a randomly selected sample of 797 likely primary voters including 421 Democrats and 256 Republicans. The sampling error for 797 is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Sample error for subgroups varies with the size of the subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land-line phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Results are mathematically weighted to match known demographics. Likely primary voters are largely self-defined through a series of screening questions. Any voter turnout model for New Jersey s new February Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, against which a sample might evaluated, is largely speculative since there is no reliable historical pattern to which to refer.
Question US1: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track? All Dem. Ind. Rep. Men Women Right direction 16% 10 11 29 19 13 Wrong track 75% 86 72 57 72 77 Unsure/don t know 9% 4 17 14 9 9 Oct. 2007 Right direction 18% 7 12 41 23 13 Wrong track 71% 84 75 46 68 74 Unsure 11% 9 12 14 9 13 Sept. 2007 Right direction 20% 8 15 45 20 20 Wrong track 67% 84 74 35 68 67 Unsure 13% 9 11 20` 13 13 June 2007 Right direction 19% 8 12 40 23 15 Wrong track 70% 87 65 49 67 73 Unsure 11% 5 23 11 10 12 May 2007 Right direction 22% 10 15 43 28 17 Wrong track 65% 82 67 40 59 70 Don t know/unsure 13% 8 17 17 13 13 March 2007 Right direction 22% 12 18 41 25 19 Wrong track 65% 82 66 43 61 69 Don t know/unsure 13% 7 16 16 13 12. 2007 Right direction 23% 15 12 46 30 17 Wrong track 64% 78 70 39 60 68 Don t know/unsure 13% 7 18 15 11 14 Question US2: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? All Dem Ind Rep Oct Sep Jun May Mar Approve 20% 4 16 48 26 27 24 28 33 30 Disapprove 72% 92 70 43 66 65 68 65 61 60 Don't Know/ Ref. 7% 4 14 10 7 8 8 7 5 10 Question US3: Now, turning to Iraq How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going? All Dem Ind Rep Oct Sep Jun May Mar Nov Oct Jul Very well 10% 4 7 20 10 5 5 7 5 4 6 8 11 15 Fairly well 27% 16 30 45 25 29 21 22 22 21 21 25 28 30 Not too well 30% 35 24 22 30 28 30 33 32 35 30 30 28 27 Not at all well 28% 40 27 8 28 31 37 34 36 35 40 34 30 21 Unsure/Ref. 6% 5 13 3 7 7 6 5 6 5 3 4 3 7
Question US4: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake? All Party Oct. Sep Jun May Mar Nov Sep Dem Ind Rep 06 06 Right thing 24% 7 20 54 27 32 28 30 29 31 30 33 Mistake 69% 88 68 38 62 62 61 63 66 63 65 59 Unsure 7% 5 12 8 10 6 10 6 5 7 5 8 Question: And in the upcoming elections for President of the United States, which candidate are you most likely to support? [Rotate names] All Men Women Dem Ind Rep 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Hillary Clinton 25 20 30 41 10 5 40 21 24 24 Barack Obama 18 20 16 27 14 5 25 19 18 16 John Edwards 6 7 4 8 3 2 3 6 7 4 Rudy Giuliani 8 9 7 1 7 200 3 13 7 9 John McCain 10 11 9 2 11 23 9 9 11 10 Mitt Romney 4 6 2 0 4 10 0 4 4 7 Mike Huckabee 3 2 3 0 3 7 3 3 3 2 Someone else ( specify )* 4 6 2 2 4 7 9 3 3 3 Don t know 23 19 26 19 44 21 8 21 23 24 includes, inter alia, Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul Question: If you had to choose, which do you like more (about the candidate of his/her choice) [NOTE: TOP 3 CANDIDATES ONLY] [Rotate names] All Men Women Hillary Clinton Personal qualities 19 21 19 Stance on issues 52 56 49 Both 26 20 31 Neither/don t know 2 3 2 Barack Obama Personal qualities 25 27 24 John McCain Stance on issues 50 49 50 Both 24 24 25 Neither/don t know 1 0 1 Personal qualities 27 27 26 Stance on issues 45 43 48 Both 28 30 26 Neither/don t know 0 0 0
Question: And which of those same candidates are you least likely to support in the general election? [Rotate names] All Men Women Dem Ind Rep 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Hillary Clinton 27 30 25 12 31 53 27 26 29 26 Barack Obama 9 8 11 10 6 10 11 11 9 9 John Edwards 7 7 8 9 1 7 11 7 8 6 Rudy Giuliani 17 18 15 24 15 6 5 14 19 23 John McCain 3 3 5 6 2 2 9 7 3 2 Mitt Romney 7 6 7 9 8 3 12 7 6 4 Mike Huckabee 13 15 11 14 14 10 11 14 13 12 Someone else ( specify )* 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 Don t know 15 11 18 14 23 7 15 13 10 16 Question: If you had to choose, which do you dislike more (about the candidate of his/her choice) [Rotate names] All Men Women Hillary Clinton Rudy Giuliani Mike Huckabee Personal qualities 33 34 32 Stance on issues 30 31 29 Both 32 31 33 Neither/don t know 6 7 7 Personal qualities 37 40 33 Stance on issues 30 33 27 Both 29 25 32 Neither/don t know 5 1 8 Personal qualities 13 11 15 Stance on issues 65 71 54 Both 16 14 19 Neither/don t know 9 5 13 Results are also available on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.