Florida Economic Update. Jesse Panuccio Executive Director, DEO Florida Realtors 2015 Mid-Winter Business Meetings January 21, PDF Free Download

Florida Economic Update Jesse Panuccio Executive Director, DEO Florida Realtors 2015 Mid-Winter Business Meetings January 21, 2015

Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Private-Sector Jobs Created December 2010 November 2014, Seasonally Adjusted 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 715,700 Private Sector Jobs Created 226,900 Jobs Over-the-Year 212,900 Jobs Since January 2014 351,600 328,200 412,200 38,600 Jobs Over-the-Month 291,700 366,700 270,600 339,100 227,900 288,200 306,200 210,000 194,900 148,500 243,700 140,000 198,400 217,000 105,500 90,200 166,400 66,700 118,400 15,100 40,400 90,700 9,800 71,100 7,400 38,400 38,000 715,700 677,100 638,500 618,200 601,600 647,000 620,100 543,000 583,800 502,800 566,700 472,900 432,200 508,600 488,800 385,100 445,500 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released December 19, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 3

Private-Sector Job Growth Florida vs. the Nation Jurisdiction Total Jobs Added OTY % Increase United States 2,657,000 2.3% Texas 409,700 4.3% Florida 226,900 3.4% North Carolina 110,800 3.3% Georgia 92,600 2.7% California 347,500 2.7% Ohio 66,300 1.5% Michigan 44,300 1.3% New York 91,900 1.2% Pennsylvania 35,800 0.7% Illinois 30,500 0.6% National Comparison: Florida s four year growth in the private sector is 11.7%, while the nation s is 8.9 %. 4

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Over-the-Year Private-Sector Job Growth Rate Florida and the United States 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 Florida United States 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released December 19, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 5

Private-Sector Job Growth by Industry Other Services 11,200 22,000 (3.1%) Over-the-Year Change Manufacturing Financial Activities 6,800 12,600 22,200 (3.1%) 46,800 (6.5%) (%) Percent of total growth Education and Health Services 20,800 78,700 (11.0%) Construction 34,900 81,900 (11.4%) Leisure and Hospitality 40,200 148,000 (20.7%) Professional and Business Services 41,300 152,100 (21.3.%) Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 57,600 165,000 (23.1%) 0 50K 100K 150K 200K Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released December 19, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 6

Job Growth Picture Since December 2010 Wages 76.3% (546,700) of private sector jobs created are in industries with an average annual wage > $39,000. 53.3% (381,700) of private sector jobs created are in industries with an average annual wage > $40,000. 41.8% (299,800) of private sector jobs created are in industries with an average annual wage > $45,000. Full-Time vs. Part-Time Part-time work for economic reasons (as opposed to by choice) as a percent of total employment has declined in Florida since 2011. This suggests that the job growth in Florida is not reflective of an increasing percentage of workers holding part-time work when they d rather have full-time work. 7

Florida Metro Areas Gaining Jobs Since December 2010 Not Seasonally Adjusted Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA Sebastian-Vero Beach MSA Palm Coast MSA Ocala MSA Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach MSA Punta Gorda MSA Tallahassee MSA Crestview-Ft Walton Beach-Destin MSA Gainesville MSA Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent MSA Port St. Lucie MSA Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach MSA Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Naples-Marco Island MSA Cape Coral-Fort Myers MSA North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota MSA West Palm Bch-Boca Raton-Boynton Bch MD Jacksonville MSA Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Bch-Deerfield Bch MD Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall MD Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA 100 100 400 1,900 400 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 1,500 1,300 3,500 1,900 2,300 2,900 4,100 5,100 6,400 7,000 7,900 8,900 10,000 4,400 16,300 3,100 22,600 10,600 29,900 12,900 48,900 17,000 49,600 28,400 1,800 3,300 Over-the-Year Change 70,000 12,900 85,200 39,500 107,600 46,300 128,200 0 20K 40K 60K 80K 100K 120K 140K Notes: The Ocala MSA lost jobs over the year and the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA had an over-the-year gain larger than the gain from Dec. 2010 (+1,000 jobs). Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released December 19, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 8

Florida Metro Areas Gaining Jobs (Rate) Since December 2010 Not Seasonally Adjusted Change Since December 2010 Over-the-Year Change Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Ocala MSA Tallahassee MSA Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama Sebastian-Vero Beach MSA Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent MSA Gainesville MSA Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Port St. Lucie MSA Crestview-Ft Walton Beach- Punta Gorda MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Jacksonville MSA Palm Coast MSA West Palm Bch-Boca Raton- Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Bch- Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall MD Cape Coral-Fort Myers MSA North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA Naples-Marco Island MSA 0.1% 2.1% 2.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.6% 8.4% 8.9% 9.5% 9.7% 10.6% 11.1% 12.4% 12.7% 14.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% Ocala MSA Sebastian-Vero Beach MSA Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama Gainesville MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Tallahassee MSA Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Cape Coral-Fort Myers MSA Port St. Lucie MSA Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Crestview-Ft Walton Beach-Destin Palm Coast MSA Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent MSA West Palm Bch-Boca Raton- Jacksonville MSA Punta Gorda MSA Naples-Marco Island MSA Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall MD Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Bch- North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota MSA Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA Notes: The Ocala MSA lost jobs over-the-year (-1.0 %). Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released December 19, 2014. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 4.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 9

Job Demand November 2006 November 2014 290,000 270,000 257,165 Online Job Ads 279,394 Online Job Ads 250,000 230,000 210,000 190,000 170,000 150,000 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine, prepared by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 10

Top Occupations in Demand General Occupations Online Ads Top Advertised Occupations for Florida December 2014 Florida Total Ads 269,810 Registered Nurses 15,069 Retail Salespersons 6,616 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 5,982 Customer Service Representatives 5,423 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 4,532 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 4,217 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 4,188 Accountants 3,329 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,208 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Except Technical & Scientific 3,090 Computer User Support Specialists 3,010 Medical and Health Services Managers 3,006 Web Developers 2,879 Computer Systems Analysts 2,716 Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants 2,640 Marketing Managers 2,593 Software Developers, Applications 2,498 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 2,478 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 2,426 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 2,426 Education Required - Postsecondary Adult Vocational STEM Occupations Online Ads Top Advertised STEM Occupations for Florida December 2014 Florida Total Ads 58,092 Registered Nurses 15,069 Accountants 3,329 Computer User Support Specialists 3,010 Computer Systems Analysts 2,716 Software Developers, Applications 2,498 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 2,426 Critical Care Nurses 2,177 Information Technology Project Managers 1,462 Financial Managers, Branch or Department 1,449 Computer Programmers 1,143 Industrial Engineers 1,097 Auditors 875 Software Quality Assurance Engineers and Testers 860 Family and General Practitioners 803 Computer Systems Engineers/Architects 750 Civil Engineers 742 Database Administrators 698 Surgical Technologists 695 Computer and Information Systems Managers 673 Financial Analysts 646 Education Required - Postsecondary Adult Vocational Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine, prepared by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 11

Florida Unemployment Rates January 1990 to November 2014 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released December 19, 2014. 12

Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Unemployment Rate for Florida and the United States December 2010 November 2014, Seasonally Adjusted 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.9 10.5 10.3 10.6 10.5 10.5 9.9 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.0 Florida United States 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.5 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.1 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.8 5 4 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released December 19, 2014. 13

Decline in Unemployment Rate December 2010 to Current All States, Ranked by Change Seasonally Adjusted Rank State Change from December 2010 Rank State Change from December 2010 Rank State Change from December 2010 1 Nevada -6.9 16 Mississippi -3.3 35 Massachusetts -2.1 2 Florida -5.3 16 Texas -3.3 35 West Virginia -2.1 3 California -5.0 20 Arizona -3.2 37 Oklahoma -2.0 4 Colorado -4.9 21 Illinois -3.1 37 Wyoming -2.0 5 Idaho -4.8 21 New Jersey -3.1 39 Iowa -1.9 6 North Carolina -4.7 23 Pennsylvania -3.0 39 Maryland -1.9 7 Michigan -4.6 23 Georgia -3.0 41 Vermont -1.8 8 Rhode Island -4.4 25 Alabama -2.9 42 Delaware -1.7 9 Ohio -4.3 25 Connecticut -2.9 42 South Dakota -1.7 10 Utah -4.1 25 Tennessee -2.9 42 Virginia -1.7 11 Kentucky -4.0 28 Kansas -2.6 45 New Hampshire -1.6 12 South Carolina -3.9 28 Hawaii -2.6 46 New Mexico -1.5 13 Missouri -3.6 28 Wisconsin -2.6 46 Nebraska -1.5 14 Indiana -3.5 31 Montana -2.4 48 Alaska -1.2 15 Washington -3.4 31 New York -2.4 48 Louisiana -1.2 16 Oregon -3.3 33 Arkansas -2.3 50 North Dakota -0.9 16 Minnesota -3.3 33 Maine -2.3 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released December 19, 2014. 14

Labor Force Growth in the Nation and the Ten Largest States Jurisdiction Change from December 2010 Change from December 2010 (%) Over-the-Year Change Over-the-Year Change (%) United States 2,758,000 1.8 1,113,000 0.7 Florida 431,849 4.6 242,195 2.6 Texas 660,746 5.3 202,612 1.6 California 443,411 2.4 264,972 1.4 Michigan 42,178 0.9 42,841 0.9 Georgia 25,862 0.5 17,059 0.4 Illinois -26,851-0.4 8,880 0.1 Ohio -68,340-1.2-19,119-0.3 North Carolina -8,255-0.2-31,665-0.7 New York -21,526-0.2-76,607-0.8 Pennsylvania -30,402-0.5-59,843-0.9 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released December 19, 2014. 16

Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Over-the-Year Labor Force Growth Rate Florida and the United States 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 Florida United States 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3-0.5-1.0 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program in cooperation with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics, released December 19, 2014. 17

2013 Real Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Ten Most Populous States Ranked by Over the Year Percent Change Rank State Percent Change from 2012 1 Texas 3.7 2 North Carolina 2.3 3 Florida 2.2 4 Michigan 2.0 5 California 2.0 6 Georgia 1.8 7 Ohio 1.8 8 Illinois 0.9 9 Pennsylvania 0.7 10 New York 0.7 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. Compare U.S. Real GDP Growth: 2.2 18

Economic Development in Florida Number of Projects 161 for fiscal year 2013-14, an 18% increase over 135 projects in 2011. Capital Investment $2.785 billion in capital investment for fiscal year 2013-14, a 86% increase over $1.14 million in capital investment in 2011. New Jobs 23,864 new jobs contracted in fiscal year 2013-14, a 49% increase over 14,437 new jobs contracted in 2011. Retained Jobs 12,343 jobs were retained in fiscal year 2013-14, an 80% increase over 5,272 retained jobs in 2011. 19

Sampling of Key Competitive Projects FY13-14 20

Florida Economic Update. Jesse Panuccio Executive Director, DEO Florida Realtors 2015 Mid-Winter Business Meetings January 21, 2015