: Review of Progress in Implementing MDGs Meeting of the Advisory Board of the publication Beyond 2015: The Future United Nations Development Agenda- A regional Perspective Beirut, 8-9 November 2012 1

Objective: To evaluate the progress towards the MDG from different perspectivesp To evaluate the progress from an inequality perspective To evaluate whether and how the MDGs have been instrumental to policy design and implementation, at both global and national level, and to policy monitoring and evaluation. 2

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 3

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 4

Introduction Specific development goals to be achieved by 2015 were incorporated into the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) One of the strengths of the framework is its simple definition as a set of concrete and time-bound goals and targets that can be monitored by indicators To keep track of the MDG implementation in advancing human development, an evaluation of the progress of identified goals and indicators as well as its likelihood to meet the targets by the 2015 deadline has been frequently used to report and monitor the MDG achievement The assessment of the progress against the targets has been presented at all possible levels, global, regional and national 5

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 6

An assessment of MDG progress Global progress The 2012 Millennium Development Goals Report (United Nations, 2012) indicates that there are indicators that have already been achieved well before the 2015 target Impressive improvement in Goal 1: The proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day fell from 47 per cent in 1990 to 24 per cent in 2008 and estimated to fall to less than half of the 1990 rate in 2010, five years ahead of the 2015 deadline The world has also met the target t of halving the proportion of people without t access to improved sources of drinking water in 2010 The world has achieved parity in primary education between girls and boys as shown by the gender parity index value of 97 in 2010 for developing regions. 7

An assessment of MDG progress Global progress The 2012 Millennium Development Goals Report (United Nations, 2012) indicates that there are indicators that have already been achieved well before the 2015 target Progress has been slow in other key areas: The proportion of own-account and unpaid family workers in total employment, which constituted vulnerable employment, has slightly reduced from 67 per cent in 1991 to estimated 58 per cent in all developing regions in 2011. Although h maternal mortality has considerably declined d by 47 per cent during 1990-2010, its deduction d is still far from the 2015 target. The number of undernourished people as well as slum dwellers has continued to grow. 8

An assessment of MDG progress Progress at the regional level is presented by using the results from Regional Commissions, for example, in Asia and the Pacific 9

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 10

Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective The progress towards the MDGs has not only been considerably varied across different goals and indicators, but the achievement of the MDGs has also been unequally distributed across regions, subregions and countries as well as different population groups in a nation. The regional disparities are visibly depicted in the progress chart, a product published together with the global Millennium Development Goals Report presenting the degree of compliance with the target and the progress towards the target classifying by 9 subregions and 16 assessed indicators. It is detectable that some subregions have experienced greater progress than others, for example: East Asia is the best performer for progress towards the targets. Out of 16 targets, it has already achieved, or expects to meet by 2015, 12 targets. It is followed by 9 targets in South- East Asia, 6 targets in South Asia and 4 targets in West Asia. In the African continent, North Africa performs better than Sub-Saharan Africa in almost all presented targets in terms of the MDG progress except the target relating to HIV/AIDS. 11

Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective Monitoring the MDGs at an aggregated g level could disguise disparities at a lower level of disaggregation Achievement of MDG targets at the global level does not necessarily imply subregional accomplishments The world has achieved the target on improved drinking water five years ahead of the 2015 deadline The whole African continent and West Asia are not likely to reach the target by 2015 We have not seen promising progress of this indicator in Oceania and Caucasus & Central Asia The remaining four subregions, around 60 per cent of world population, arithmetically constitute the global success in providing access to safe drinking water 12

Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective Between-country disparity is also masked when the regional averages are reported Even within a nation, regardless of the speed of progress, the MDGs do not benefit equitably the entire population. In fact, it tends to bypass those who are under disadvantaged conditions. Percentage of children under 5 underweight Rural Urban 13

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 14

An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method Method to assess progress towards the targets received many critiques goals are globally defined and the assessment of progress for meeting the targets by 2015 can only be done at the global level Easterly (2009) expressed that the goals were poorly and arbitrarily designed to measure progress against poverty and deprivation. countries in the developing world vary a lot in terms of their levels of development. The different development needs and initial conditions of countries were not reflected in the selection of targets. The focus should be on whether the introduction of MDGs has helped in accelerating the progress Comparisons between the rates of change for the periods before and after MDGs are introduced and determine whether an acceleration of improvement exists 15

An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method UNICEF introduced the annual average rate of reduction (AARR) as a measure to monitor and evaluate the global trend in underweight prevalence among children under five and child mortality. The AARR quantifies the rate of change of a given indicator from baseline to the current year. When estimates are available for multiple years, this method allows the calculation of the AARR using a regression analysis. Some of the most significant results from this analysis of MDG implementation through acceleration of progress are the following: although progress in some countries towards the targets has been classified as slow, in some cases acceleration has been observed in their rates of progress. many countries have been improving the level of the indicators since 1990, but not always acceleration in their rates of progress has been observed. 16

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 17

Policy influence of the MDG agenda Impacts on international policy There is a general consensus that the MDGs have enormously influenced the global development discourse. The total amount of official development aid (ODA) from donors to social infrastructures and services increased more than three times in the last two decades At the same time, the amount of ODA allocated to the production sector only increased 12 per cent This pattern of increasing proportion of aid allocated to social sector may be interpreted as an evidence of the international ti commitment t towards MDGs The simultaneous decrease in the proportion of ODA towards production sectors may have had consequences yet to be clearly identified, especially in terms of the impacts at the economic development capacity of countries Several other capital flows have emerged with at least as high international significance On the regional perspective, the highest annual average growth of ODA happened in Africa and Asia in the first half of the 2000s, which may be a related to a higher international emphasizes of the MDGs towards these regions 18

Policy influence of the MDG agenda Impacts on international policy UN regional bodies have committed themselves to creating enabling environments and supporting their member states to develop and strengthen their capacities in attaining the MDGs UNESCAP and UNECE project Supporting Millennium Development Goals based development strategies through integrated regional action : strengthen national capacities to formulate, implement and monitor development strategies The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) is an African Union strategic framework for pan- African socio-economic development, to address critical challenges facing the continent 19

Policy influence of the MDG agenda Impacts on national policy Countries have also been adapting the framework to the country-specific priorities and budgets, adjusting the goals and targets to their national context Governments commitment: the global pattern does not present a significant increase overtime in the percentage of government expenditure allocated to health, although public funds have been increasingly more important to the total health expenditure the percentage of government expenditure allocated to public education worldwide has also not been a significant change overtime, although the educational sector have been systematically receiving a higher proportion of the public funds than the health sector Adequate community development projects can complement local governments, by providing small-scales scales services and acting closer to families, playing a vital role in reaching out targeted people School Management Committees in Nepal that identify girls and children from disadvantage castes and distribute and monitor school stipends to overcome resistance to the children education (Koehler et al., 2009) 20

Policy influence of the MDG agenda Impacts on monitoring and evaluation Tracking progress to support evidence-based policies requires that: i) statistical systems and policymakers have an agreed focus on the most adequate set of indicators for the needs of the regions and the countries ii) processes are in place to collect reliable and timely data, following quality standards iii) concise models and classification rules are applied to identify the important policy questions of regions and countries iv) data analysis are disseminated and communicated in a way that enables their use for policy decisions Increasing commitment by national governments and international development partners to evidence-based policy making, contributing to an improvement in the capacity of countries to produce and disseminate data 21

Table of Contents I. Introduction II. An assessment of MDG progress III. Review of MDG progress from an inequality perspective IV. An assessment of MDG progress using an acceleration method V. Policy influence of the MDG agenda VI. Concluding Remarks 22

Concluding Remarks The progress towards the MDGs has not only been considerably varied across different goals and indicators, but the achievement of the MDGs has also been unequally distributed across regions, subregions and countries as well as different population groups in a nation. Focusing on targets without adequately addressing the issue of inequality could eventually impede the world accomplishment as disparities at all levels could reach a discriminatory stage that slows down global progress. Therefore, any effort in the last push to the 2015 MDG deadline should not neglect those who are lagged behind. Based on the assessment of MDGs progress using an acceleration method, although progress in some countries towards the targets has been classified as slow, in some cases acceleration has been observed in their rates of progress, and many countries have been improving the level of the indicators since 1990, but not always acceleration in their rates of progress has been observed. 23

Concluding Remarks MDGs have enormously influenced the global development discourse in the previous decades and this has translated in an (absolute and relative) increase of the international resources devoted to social infrastructures and services. However, there was a simultaneous decrease in the relative amount of ODA that went to production, whose consequences are still to be study. Aid is an important source of funding development, but several other capital flows have been shown at least (or even more) relevant, namely: international trade, FDI, and remittances. The MDG framework helped highlighting the vital role of the regional dimensions of development and promoted the growth of regional integration initiatives and many forms of intra-regional cooperation. 24

Concluding Remarks MDGs have also been adopted into national contexts, influencing policy planning, budget commitments and implementation initiatives. By providing a limit set of concrete and time-bound set of goals and targets, the MDGs have had a significant ifi impact in stressing the need of reliable and timely data to plan, monitor and evaluate development policies. Progress has been made, but challenges remain, emphasizing the importance of continuous efforts to improve statistical capacity in many developing countries. 25