Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation Autumn XRG Meeting November 2016 Elizabeth Holder, Research Associate Institutional Research & Market Analytics
Executive Summary Overall Trends The first-year retention rate of the 2015 cohort is 85.1%, a 1.3% point increase from 2014. Almost all of the freshmen (94%) who completed the first year in the high performance group (earning a 2.5 or higher GPA and 48 or more credit hours) persisted to the second year. The four-year graduation rate of the 2012 cohort is 58.7%, in line with last year s all-time high. The five-year graduation rate is 68.3% and the six-year graduation rate has exceeded seventy percent again this year (72.5% for the 2010 cohort). DePaul continues to outperform national, 4-year private institutions in terms of first-year retention, four- and six-year graduation rates. Academic & Demographic Trends Freshmen who came to DePaul less prepared than their peers graduated at 61% within six years, slightly higher than the national, 4-year private rate of. Freshman with high need decreased in 2015 to 37%, but they have slightly lower graduation rates than their low need peers. African-American freshmen have their highest four-year graduation rate to date, at 47% for the 2012 cohort, an increase of 1 points from the 2009 cohort. Business has continued to graduate freshmen within six-years at ever increasing rates; they have increased by 4% points from 75% in the 2006 cohort to 79% in the 2010 cohort. Freshmen who participate in the Edge Program have a distinctly higher four-year graduation rate, 64.9%, than freshmen overall (58.7%). Students from Ohio, one of the top three feeder states of new freshmen, have distinctly higher retention and graduation rates than freshmen overall. Diverse Learning Environments Survey - Top Level Overview 2
9 7 78.9% 82.4% 84.3% 83.5% 84. 81.2% 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 86.9% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.4% 87.2% 85.2% 85.4% 83.8% 85.1% 67.9% 68. 70.5% 71.2% 72.8% 72.5% Six-Year Graduation 67. 62.5% 64.6% 61.3% 63.5% 64. 62.6% 63.5% 63.8% Five-Year Graduation 68.1% 68.7% 69.8% 70.1% 68.3% 58.4% 64.1% 65.4% Four-Year Graduation 63.3% 58.8% 60.5% 58.1% 59.1% 60. 58.7% 59.7% 59.9% 58.7% 58.7% 54.2% 56. 58.7% 56.4% 52.7% 50.6% 47.6% 48.8% 45.3% 43. 43.6% 43.9% 43. 40.7% 40.4% 39.5% 36.4% First-Year Retention, Four-, Five- and Six-Year Graduation Rates 1995-2015 First-Year Retention 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Freshman Retention & Graduation 3
First-Year Retention Rates 2000-2015 9 Fall to Winter Retention 94.6% 95.5% 94.6% 95. 95.7% 94.9% 94.7% 95.7% 95.9% 96. 96.9% 95.9% 95.6% 96.3% 94.9% 95.4% 91.8% 92.9% 92.2% 93. 93.2% 93.2% 94.3% 95.4% 94.5% 94.7% 94.4% 92.3% Fall to Spring Retention 93.7% 94.3% 93.3% 93.4% First-Year Retention 81.2% 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.9% 86.4% 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 7 Of the 2015, 117 freshmen left after the first quarter and an additional 49 freshmen left after the winter quarter. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Freshman Retention & Graduation 4
First-Year thru Sixth-Year Retention Rates, 1995-2015 9 First-Year Retention 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% Second-Year Retention 79.3% 78. 78.5% 80.5% 77.2% 7 Third-Year Retention 77.5% 76.6% 74.8% 74.2% 76.1% Fourth-Year Retention Of these 345 students who were retained at the start of Year 5, 84% of them went on to graduate. 18.3% 19.5% 15.4% 15. 14.4% 1 Fifth-Year Retention 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 3.7% 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 1.5% Sixth-Year Retention 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Freshman Retention & Graduation 5
First-Year Retention and Four-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 79% 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 87% 86% 85% 85% 87% 84% 85% 7 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% 73% 72% 73% 72% 72% 74% 75% 75% 36% 43% 44% 41% 45% 39% 44% 48% 49% 43% 48% 59% 59% 59% 54% 56% 56% 49% 51% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 4th Yr Graduation DPU 4 Yr Graduation 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 6
First-Year Retention and Six-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 87% 83% 84% 85% 85% 86% 87% 85% 85% 84% 85% 79% 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 73% 73% 72% 73% 73% 72% 7 63% 64% 64% 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 72% 58% 62% 65% 61% 64% 64% 59% 59% 59% 59% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 6th Yr Graduation DPU 6th Yr Graduation 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 7
Proportion of within each Academic Preparation Group Low Preparation 56% 55% 55% 51% Moderate Preparation 28% 27% 27% 41% 45% 45% 34% 33% 32% 33% 27% 27% 25% 26% 23% 35% 34% 31% 37% 38% 38% 32% 32% 35% 31% 27% 35% 34% 31% 35% 35% 33% 35% 32% 16% 17% 18% 19% High Preparation 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, and high school quality rating. Academic preparation was revised in the 2016 academic year, therefore we have applied the current formula working backwards to 2001. Freshman Retention & Graduation 8
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By High School Academic Preparation High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation 9 7 86% 88% 87% 9 91% 92% 91% 88% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 88% 84% 85% 85% 87% 85% 87% 81% 84% 84% 84% 83% 81% 81% 83% 78% 78% 79% 77% 79% 75% 75% 69% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73% 75% 72% 71% 71% 64% 66% 65% 57% 56% 58% 62% 59% 57% 61% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 44% 45% 45% 43% 42% 41% 36% 1 N = 824 of the 2015 N = 893 of the 2015 N = 800 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 9
Proportion of within Each Need Rank Group 48% High Need 42% 42% 38% 37% Low Need 33% 33% 27% 34% 24% Moderate Need 26% 28% 28% 29% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Freshman Retention & Graduation 10
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Need Rank 9 7 Low Need Moderate Need High Need 84% 85% 83% 86% 87% 86% 87% 88% 85% 85% 83% 84% 85% 87% 87% 86% 87% 89% 89% 86% 84% 85% 87% 88% 86% 84% 85% 83% 81% 82% 78% 73% 74% 74% 75% 75% 69% 7 7 69% 68% 69% 7 71% 69% 67% 66% 62% 59% 59% 58% 61% 62% 61% 63% 57% 56% 56% 54% 54% 52% 51% 52% 51% 49% 46% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 711 of the 2015 N = 838 of the 2015 N = 967 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 11
Proportion of within Each Academic Performance Group 49% 51% 51% 53% 54% 58% 56% 61% 66% High Performance 64% 65% 66% 65% 67% 64% 62% 26% 25% 24% 24% 26% 23% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% Moderate Performance 18% 19% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% Low Performance 18% 14% 17% 18% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Low Performance: < 2.50 GPA with <=47 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with <37 hours earned Moderate Performance: < 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with 37-47 hours earned High Performance: >= 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned Freshman Retention & Graduation 12
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By First Year Academic Performance 9 7 High Performance Moderate Performance Low Performance 93% 93% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 93% 94% 9 87% 88% 9 92% 89% 88% 89% 91% 87% 83% 84% 86% 85% 83% 68% 71% 71% 72% 74% 74% 74% 73% 69% 68% 69% 69% N = 449 of the 2015 46% 48% 47% 49% 49% 45% 42% 54% 56% 53% 53% 44% 47% 48% 44% 44% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 26% 24% 24% 25% 26% 1 9% 8% 9% 1 8% 6% 6% N = 1,562 of the 2015 N = 506 of the 2015 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 13
First-Year Retention, Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rates by Gender First-Year Retention Females Males 9 7 83% 85% 87% 84% 83% 85% 85% 86% 86% 86% 84% 83% 84% 86% 83% 83% 84% 84% 85% 86% 86% 87% 88% 89% 85% 84% 86% 81% 82% 72% 73% 74% 75% Six-Year Graduation 7 7 63% 66% 67% 65% 62% 63% 65% 67% 69% 69% 71% 69% 65% 61% 62% 56% 58% 59% 59% 61% 55% 53% 54% 51% Four-Year Graduation 46% 48% 49% 51% 52% 52% 46% 46% 44% 38% 38% 38% 1 N = 1,417 of the 2015 N = 1,100 of the 2015 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Freshman Retention & Graduation 14
Freshman Retention & Graduation 15
First-Year Retention, Four-Year, and Six-Year Graduation Rates - By Entry College LAS Business CSH CDM Communication COE 9 7 83% 85% 87% 83% 85% 87% 87% 87% 88% 89% 89% 89% 89% 87% 89% 88% 87% 85% 85% 86% 86% 83% 84% 83% 83% 83% 81% 76% 77% 79% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 73% 74% 76% 73% 71% 71% 71% 69% 67% 67% 66% 68% 69% 68% 67% 64% 64% 61% 62% 59% 59% 57% 54% 55% 52% 67% 65% 64% 62% 54% 55% 57% 59% 56% 55% 55% 51% 52% 49% 45% 1 N= 451 of the 2015 cohort First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N= 668 of the 2015 cohort N= 479 of the 2015 cohort N= 494 of the 2015 cohort N= 217 of the 2015 cohort N=79 of the 2015 cohort 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2016 measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 16
Proportion of from Each Geographic Location, at Time of Entry 46% 45% 43% 45% 47% 47% 44% 47% 48% 44% 43% 44% 42% Suburban 41% 41% 33% 33% 36% 35% 37% 39% 27% 28% 26% 27% 29% 28% 29% Out of State 21% 26% 17% 21% 19% 16% 16% 19% 18% 17% 18% 18% Chicago 16% 1 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Other IL 4% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Freshman Retention & Graduation 17
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Geographic Origin, at Time of Entry 9 7 Chicago Suburban Other IL Out of State 88% 88% 89% 9 91% 87% 87% 82% 84% 87% 85% 84% 83% 84% 83% 83% 85% 84% 81% 81% 75% 75% 77% 78% 76% 76% 72% 71% 72% 66% 68% 68% 68% 69% 69% 71% 67% 66% 65% 62% 68% 65% 65% 62% 58% 59% 59% 61% 58% 59% 62% 64% 61% 56% 47% 45% 46% 47% 49% 49% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 441 of the 2015 cohort N= 980 of the 2015 cohort N= 60 of the 2015 cohort N= 1,034 of the 2015 cohort 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2016 measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 18
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Top Feeder States, at Time of Entry California Michigan Ohio Overall Freshmen 9 7 82% 83% 85% 81% 68% 76% 79% 62% 56% 63% 62% 64% 84% 85% 86% 84% 86% 87% 84% 84% 76% 75% 74% 73% 69% 7 67% 62% 63% 63% 65% 63% 62% 54% 56% 58% 57% 54% 52% 89% 83% 67% 83% 83% 85% 84% 81% 69% 71% 67% 65% 62% 62% 64% 61% 59% 56% 43% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 147 of the 2015 cohort N= 117 of the 2015 cohort N= 91 of the 2015 cohort N= 2,517 in the 2015 cohort 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2016 measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 19
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Mission Characteristics Pell Eligible Underrep. Students of Color First Generation Overall Freshmen 9 7 84% 83% 84% 87% 85% 86% 85% 85% 87% 81% 82% 81% 82% 82% 84% 85% 82% 79% 79% 67% 69% 7 7 71% 72% 73% 7 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 67% 67% 68% 68% 64% 61% 57% 58% 58% 59% 49% 52% 52% 55% 56% 56% 53% 53% 53% 46% 46% 47% 49% 46% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 750 of the 2015 N = 613 of the 2015 N = 871 of the 2015 N = 2,517 in the 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2016 measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 20
Retention Rates & Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rate by Special Populations Population of Interest Size of 2015 % in High Performance of 2015 1 st Yr Retention 2013 1 st Yr Retention 2014 1 st Yr Retention 2015 4 th Year Graduation 2012 6 th Year Graduation 2010 Univer. Honors N=238 79.8% 92.6% 88. 92.4% 82.9% 84.7% CPS-IB (self rep.) N=39 61.5% 83.3% 86. 89.7% 59.2% 77.6% AP Credit N=1,222 66.9% 88.9% 85.5% 86.7% 62.1% 77. Overall Freshmen N=2,517 62.1% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 58.7% 72.5% CPS N=232 48.6% 82.8% 82.6% 81.1% 47.6% 69.4% Catholic HS N=177 63.3% 91.4% 87.2% 89.8% 50.7% 68.6% FYAS N=118 53.4% 86.8% 82.1% 84.7% 46.2% 67.3% Probation in 1 st Year N=192.5% 45.1% 46.9% 49.5% 3.7% 17.6% TOPP N=158 56.3% 84.3% 81.7% 86.1% 51.2% n/a Edge Program N=147 73.5% 87.9% 88.5% 94.6% 64.9% n/a Pathway Honors N=80 63.8% 94.9% 94.7% 92.5% n/a n/a Freshman Retention & Graduation 21
Appendix Freshman Retention & Graduation 22
Number Entered during Fall Term 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Overall 2,392 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 Race African-American 175 158 151 129 190 143 158 133 158 143 177 Asian/Pacific Islander/Alaska Native 194 209 217 220 197 120 133 181 157 212 199 Caucasian 1,566 1,652 1,575 1,574 1,416 1,337 1,501 1,554 1,433 1,528 1,481 Hispanic/Latino 307 344 291 321 443 411 396 451 411 466 436 Multiracial 14 78 98 93 103 117 90 101 Other/Unknown 150 168 279 295 202 126 173 167 146 101 123 Gender Female 1,411 1,428 1,458 1,502 1,494 1,307 1,408 1,459 1,408 1,469 1,417 Male 981 1,103 1,055 1,051 1,032 928 1,046 1,130 1,014 1,071 1,100 Race and Gender African-American Male 56 53 52 50 58 65 55 44 63 50 68 African-American Female 119 105 99 79 132 78 103 89 95 93 109 Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Male 92 104 113 97 98 60 61 82 76 104 96 Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Female 102 105 104 123 99 60 72 99 81 108 98 Caucasian Male 670 721 637 657 601 564 653 709 607 644 642 Caucasian Female 896 931 938 917 815 773 848 845 826 884 839 Hispanic/Latino Male 103 146 117 122 162 146 161 174 150 183 194 Hispanic/Latino Female 204 198 174 199 281 265 235 277 261 283 242 Multiracial Male 6 24 43 38 40 45 35 36 Multiracial Female 8 54 55 55 63 72 55 65 Freshman Retention & Graduation 23
Number Entered during Fall Term 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Overall 2,392 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 Geographic Origin Chicago 492 477 405 400 501 435 461 463 422 457 441 Elsewhere in IL 127 167 160 173 82 72 82 67 83 87 75 Out of State / Out of Country 693 700 761 850 767 654 815 934 843 919 1,021 Suburban 1,076 1,186 1,182 1,127 1,174 1,071 1,092 1,124 1,074 1,077 980 College Business 704 792 754 765 621 522 641 668 644 711 668 Communication 123 130 148 210 248 214 231 229 234 271 217 Computing & Digital Media 186 197 157 199 248 230 257 327 285 386 494 Education 139 134 148 134 163 156 143 141 122 97 79 Liberal Arts & Soc. Sci. 1,080 1,127 1,152 1,114 1,094 972 676 615 512 457 451 Music 74 61 65 54 61 56 65 63 61 48 59 Science & Health 370 474 481 494 479 Theatre 86 90 89 77 81 85 71 72 83 76 70 First Year Performance High Performance 1,398 1,426 1,536 1,685 1,622 1,454 1,630 1,673 1,627 1,618 1,562 Moderate Performance 482 563 512 469 488 419 441 512 460 501 506 Low Performance 511 541 465 398 415 361 383 404 335 421 449 Academic Preparation High Preparation 555 621 642 688 680 684 786 835 846 893 824 Moderate Preparation 759 761 848 846 827 767 911 985 929 856 893 Low Preparation 1,078 1,149 1,023 1,019 1,019 784 757 769 647 791 800 Freshman Retention & Graduation 24
Methodology All data is based on first-time, full-time, degree-seeking freshman students. FYAS students are included with the cohort entering in the subsequent fall quarter. Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2016 measurement year = 2015 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2012 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2010 cohort 6th year grad rate). Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, high school quality ratings. Retention by Entry college does not track the students movements into other colleges at DePaul. The rates are based on if the student persisted or graduated DePaul on the whole, and are measured by the college in which they first entered DePaul in their first fall entry term. 2011 cohort marks the first year with 1 st year retention rates after the CSH and LAS split. All prior cohorts graduation rates represent the prior college of LA&S. Freshman Retention & Graduation 25