Trends in Freshman Retention & Graduation Autumn XRG Meeting November 2017 Elizabeth Holder, Sr. Research Associate Institutional Research & Market Analytics
Executive Summary Overall Trends The first-year retention rate of the 2016 cohort is 83.6%, a 1.5% point decrease from 2015. Almost all of the freshmen (95%) who completed the first year in the high performance group (earning a 2.5 or higher GPA and 48 or more credit hours) persisted to the second year. The four-year graduation rate of the 2013 cohort is 60.2%, a new all-time high for freshmen. The five-year graduation rate is 69.3% and the six-year graduation rate dropped to 70.7%, which was expected, given last year s decline in the five-year graduation rate. DePaul continues to outperform national, 4-year private institutions in terms of first-year retention, four- and six-year graduation rates. Academic & Demographic Trends Freshmen who came to DePaul less prepared than their peers graduated at within six years, the same as the national, 4-year private rate of. The proportion of freshmen with high need decreased in 2016 to 37%, but they have only slightly lower graduation rates than their low need peers. Communication has continued to retain and graduate freshmen at ever-increasing rates, matching or exceeding all other colleges; first-year retention is up to 87% and their four-year graduation rate is up to 68%. Freshmen who participate in the EDGE Program have a notably higher four-year graduation rate, 74.2%, than freshmen overall (60.2%) as well as a higher six-year graduation rate, 82.1%, than freshmen overall (70.7%). The first cohort of Health Science Pathway Honors freshmen have graduated within four years at a rate of 72.9%, exceeding the overall freshman cohort by 12.7% points. Diverse Learning Environments Survey - Top Level Overview 2
10 9 8 7 4 78.9% 82.4% 84.3% 83.5% 84. 81.2% 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 86.9% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.4% 87.2% 85.2% 85.4% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 58.4% 52.7% 36.4% First-Year Retention, Four-, Five- and Six-Year Graduation Rates 1995-2016 62.5% 64.6% 61.3% 63.5% 64. 62.6% 63.5% 63.8% 67.9% 68. 70.5% 71.2% 72.8% 72.5% Six-Year Graduation 70.7% 67. 64.1% 65.4% 68.1% 68.7% 69.8% 70.1% 68.3% 69.3% 63.3% 58.8% 60.5% 58.1% 59.1% 60. 58.7% 59.7% 59.9% 54.2% 56. 56.4% 50.6% 47.6% 48.8% 45.3% 43. 43.6% 43.9% 43. 40.7% 40.4% 39.5% 58.7% 58.7% 58.9% 60.2% First-Year Retention Five-Year Graduation Four-Year Graduation 1 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 3
First-Year Retention Rates 1995-2016 10 94.6% 95.5% 94.6% 95. 95.7% Fall to Winter Retention 95.7% 95.9% 96. 94.9% 94.7% 96.9% 95.9% 95.6% 96.3% 94.9% 95.4% 94.6% 9 91.8% 92.9% 92.2% 93. 93.2% 92.3% 93.2% 95.4% 94.3% 94.5% 94.7% 94.4% Fall to Spring Retention 93.7% 94.3% 93.3% 93.4% 91.8% 8 81.2% 81.6% 82.9% 83.9% 84.7% 82.6% 83.7% 84.9% 85.2% 86.9% 86.4% 85.2% 85.4% First-Year Retention 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 7 Of the 2016, 133 freshmen left after the first quarter and an additional 69 freshmen left after the winter quarter. '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 4
First-Year thru Sixth-Year Retention Rates, 1995-2016 10 9 First-Year Retention 85.2% 85.4% 87.2% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 8 Second-Year Retention 79.3% 78. 78.5% 80.5% 77.2% 77.8% 7 4 Third-Year Retention 77.5% 76.6% 74.8% 74.2% 76.1% 74.1% Of these 367 students who were retained at the start of Year 5, 69% of them went on to graduate within 6 years. (2011 ) Fourth-Year Retention 18.3% 19.5% 15.4% 15. 14.4% 15.6% 1 Fifth-Year Retention 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 3.7% 4.5% 3.5% Sixth-Year Retention 2.1% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.1% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 5
What Quarter Freshmen Stop Enrolling 500 400 379 379 Winter Spring Summer 363 379 412 374 403 Number of Freshmen 300 200 331 305 311 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Freshman Retention & Graduation 6
10 First-Year Retention and Four-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 8 79% 82% 84% 83% 84% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 87% 86% 85% 85% 87% 84% 85% 84% 7 4 74% 75% 75% 36% 43% 44% 75% 41% 75% 75% 74% 45% 4 39% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 73% 73% 72% 73% 72% 72% 48% 49% 44% 48% 43% 59% 59% 59% 56% 56% 54% 49% 51% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 4th Yr Graduation DPU 4 Yr Graduation 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 7
10 First-Year Retention and Six-Year Graduation Rate Comparison: DePaul and 4-Year Private Institutions 9 8 84% 82% 83% 84% 81% 82% 79% 74% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 87% 83% 84% 85% 83% 84% 85% 85% 86% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% 73% 72% 73% 73% 87% 85% 85% 85% 84% 74% 75% 75% 76% 72% 84% 7 63% 64% 64% 68% 67% 68% 71% 71% 73% 72% 71% 4 58% 62% 65% 61% 64% 64% 59% 59% 59% 59% Four-Yr Private Institutions 1st Yr Retention DPU 1st Yr Retention Four-Yr Private Institutions 6th Yr Graduation DPU 6th Yr Graduation 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: ACT s National Collegiate Retention & Persistence to Degree Rates Report Freshman Retention & Graduation 8
10 Proportion of within each Academic Preparation Group 8 4 55% 27% 18% Low Preparation 51% 45% 45% 41% 4 4 34% 32% 33% 33% Moderate Preparation 27% 27% 25% 26% 23% 19% High Preparation 35% 34% 31% 37% 38% 38% 32% 32% 35% 31% 27% 35% 34% 31% 35% 35% 35% 33% 35% 35% 32% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, and high school quality rating. Academic preparation was revised in the 2016 academic year, therefore we have applied the current formula working backwards to 2001. Freshman Retention & Graduation 9
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By High School Academic Preparation 10 High Preparation Moderate Preparation Low Preparation 9 8 7 4 88% 87% 9 91% 92% 91% 88% 88% 89% 89% 88% 89% 88% 84% 85% 85% 87% 85% 87% 85% 84% 84% 84% 83% 81% 81% 83% 8 8 78% 78% 79% 77% 79% 76% 75% 75% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73% 74% 75% 73% 71% 71% 64% 66% 65% 62% 61% 59% 56% 58% 58% 58% 44% 45% 45% 46% 43% 42% 41% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 863 of the 2016 N = 888 of the 2016 N = 767 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 10
Proportion of within Each Need Rank Group 10 8 4 High Need 42% 42% 38% 37% 43% Moderate Need 33% 33% 34% 33% 26% 28% 28% 29% Low Need 24% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Freshman Retention & Graduation 11
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Need Rank 10 Low Need Moderate Need High Need 9 8 7 4 85% 86% 87% 86% 87% 88% 85% 85% 86% 83% 84% 85% 87% 87% 86% 87% 89% 89% 86% 86% 85% 87% 88% 86% 84% 83% 85% 81% 82% 79% 73% 74% 74% 75% 75% 78% 76% 7 7 7 69% 69% 7 71% 69% 66% 68% 62% 59% 59% 58% 61% 62% 62% 63% 65% 61% 57% 56% 49% 51% 52% 54% 54% 55% 51% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N = 706 of the 2016 N = 828 of the 2016 N = 916 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 12
Proportion of within Each Academic Performance Group 10 8 53% 54% 58% 56% 61% 66% 64% 65% High Performance 66% 67% 65% 64% 62% 63% 4 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% Moderate Performance 18% 19% 19% 18% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 14% Low Performance 17% 18% 18% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Low Performance: < 2.50 GPA with <48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with <37 hours earned Moderate Performance: < 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned or >= 2.50 GPA with 37-47 hours earned High Performance: >= 2.50 GPA with >=48 hours earned Freshman Retention & Graduation 13
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By First Year Academic Performance 10 9 8 7 High Performance Moderate Performance Low Performance 93% 93% 95% 94% 94% 94% 95% 93% 94% 95% 87% 88% 9 92% 89% 88% 89% 91% 87% 88% 86% 84% 85% 84% 83% 71% 71% 72% 74% 74% 75% 75% 69% 68% 69% 69% 66% N = 479 of the 2016 4 48% 45% 47% 49% 49% 49% 42% 56% 53% 53% 44% 47% 48% 44% 44% 43% First-Year Retention 26% 24% 25% 26% Four-Year Graduation 17% Six-Year Graduation 1 8% 9% 1 8% 6% 6% 6% N = 1,537 of the 2016 N = 435 of the 2016 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 14
Movement from Fall Quarter Performance to Year s End Performance 2016 High 81% High: 61% Moderate: 12% Low: 8% Moderate 11% High: 2% Moderate: 5% Low: 4% Low 8% High: <1% Moderate: 1% Low: 7% Freshman Retention & Graduation 15
First-Year Retention, Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rates by Gender 10 Females Males First-Year Retention 9 85% 84% 81% 83% 85% 85% 87% 86% 86% 84% 86% 83% 84% 84% 82% 86% 84% 84% 85% 86% 86% 87% 85% 88% 89% 84% 86% 82% 8 7 4 65% 46% 7 7 72% 73% 74% 75% 73% Six-Year Graduation 67% 62% 63% 61% 62% 56% 58% 59% 59% 53% 51% Four-Year Graduation 65% 67% 69% 69% 71% 69% 67% 65% 61% 56% 57% 54% 49% 51% 52% 52% 46% 44% 38% 4 1 N = 1,417 of the 2016 N = 1,034 of the 2016 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Freshman Retention & Graduation 16
Freshman Retention & Graduation 17
First-Year Retention, Four-Year, and Six-Year Graduation Rates - By Entry College 10 LAS Business CSH CDM Communication COE 9 8 7 85% 87% 89% 89% 89% 89% 83% 85% 87% 87% 87% 87% 85% 85% 85% 86% 89% 88% 87% 85% 84% 83% 83% 83% 83% 8 8 8 8 81% 76% 77% 79% 75% 75% 75% 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 73% 74% 73% 71% 71% 71% 69% 67% 67% 67% 67% 68% 69% 67% 66% 4 64% 61% 61% 62% 65% 59% 57% 54% 55% 67% 68% 64% 62% 61% 53% 58% 55% 57% 59% 56% 55% 51% 51% 52% 49% 49% 45% 1 N= 424 of the 2016 cohort First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N= 629 of the 2016 cohort N= 465 of the 2016 cohort N= 506 of the 2016 cohort N= 239 of the 2016 cohort N=70 of the 2016 cohort '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2017 measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 18
Proportion of from Each Geographic Location, at Time of Entry 43% 45% 47% 47% 44% 47% 48% 44% 43% Suburban 44% 42% 41% 41% 43% 4 26% 26% 27% 17% 29% 21% 28% 19% 33% 16% 16% 29% 33% 19% 36% 37% 4 36% 35% 39% Out-of-State Chicago 18% 17% 18% 19% 18% 16% 1 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Other IL 4% 2% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Freshman Retention & Graduation 19
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Geographic Origin, at Time of Entry 10 9 8 7 4 Chicago Suburban Other IL Out-of-State 88% 89% 87% 87% 84% 85% 86% 84% 83% 81% 78% 75% 77% 75% 76% 73% 68% 68% 68% 69% 66% 63% 64% 65% 62% 61% 59% 59% 49% 45% 46% 47% 45% 91% 87% 85% 84% 83% 78% 79% 76% 72% 78% 74% 68% 58% 49% 67% 65% 84% 83% 81% 69% 71% 72% 64% 62% 62% 62% 59% First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation 1 N= 380 of the 2016 cohort N= 1,002 of the 2016 cohort N= 87 of the 2016 cohort N= 981 of the 2016 cohort 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Measurement Year* *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracing one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2017 measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 20
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Campus Residence in their 1 st Year 10 Commuter Resident 9 8 7 4 87% 83% 84% 67% 68% 67% 48% 47% 43% 85% 7 53% 81% 64% 49% 83% 85% 52% 81% 83% 79% 85% 86% 72% 72% 59% 57% 87% 87% 87% 87% 88% 75% 74% 73% 63% 63% 64% 61% 85% 86% 85% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 700 of the 2016 N = 1,751 of the 2016 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Freshman Retention & Graduation 21
First-Year Retention, Four-Year Graduation, Six-Year Graduation - By Mission Characteristics 10 Pell Eligible Underrep. Students of Color First Generation Overall Freshmen 9 8 7 4 83% 84% 85% 8 81% 81% 78% 79% 79% 79% 69% 7 7 68% 66% 67% 68% 67% 64% 61% 52% 52% 53% 49% 49% 46% 47% 46% 47% 86% 87% 85% 82% 82% 84% 85% 82% 82% 71% 72% 73% 7 7 71% 71% 73% 68% 59% 57% 59% 59% 56% 56% 53% 53% 53% 84% 71% 1 First-Year Retention Four-Year Graduation Six-Year Graduation N = 700 of the 2016 N = 629 of the 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Measurement Year* N = 787 of the 2016 N = 2,451 in the 2016 *Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracing one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2017 measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Freshman Retention & Graduation 22
Retention Rates & Four- and Six-Year Graduation Rate by Special Populations Size of % in High 1 st Yr 1 st Yr 1 st Yr 4 th Year 2016 Performance Retention Retention Retention Graduation of 2016 2014 2015 2016 2013 Population of Interest 6 th Year Graduation 2011 Univer. Honors N=265 79.6% 88. 92.4% 89.8% 84. 82.5% EDGE Program N=190 74.2% 88.5% 94.6% 94.2% 74.2% 82.1% Catholic HS N=150 64.7% 87.2% 89.8% 84.7% 56.5% 71.7% Overall Freshmen N=2,451 62.7% 83.8% 85.1% 83.6% 60.2% 70.7% AP Credit N=1,129 65.7% 85.5% 86.7% 84.9% 65. 69.1% FYAS N=98 46.9% 82.1% 84.7% 76.5% 50.3% 68.8% CPS N=232 41.8% 82.6% 81.1% 73.7% 39.7% 61.3% CPS-IB (self rep.) N=29 55.2% 86. 89.7% 86.2% 45.2% 56.4% Probation in 1 st Year N=228 1.8% 46.9% 52.5% 50.5% 5.2% 13.3% TOPP N=171 64.3% 81.7% 86.1% 84.2% 58.4% n/a Pathway Honors N=93 69.9% 94.7% 92.5% 90.3% 72.9% n/a Freshman Retention & Graduation 23
Appendix Freshman Retention & Graduation 24
Number Entered during Fall Term 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Overall 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 2,451 Race African-American 158 151 129 190 143 158 133 158 143 177 179 Asian/Pacific Islander/Alaska Native 209 217 220 197 120 133 181 157 212 199 189 Caucasian 1,652 1,575 1,574 1,416 1,337 1,501 1,554 1,433 1,528 1,481 1,367 Hispanic/Latino 344 291 321 443 411 396 451 411 466 436 445 Multiracial 14 78 98 93 103 117 90 101 114 Other/Unknown 168 279 295 202 126 173 167 146 101 123 157 Gender Female 1,428 1,458 1,502 1,494 1,307 1,408 1,459 1,408 1,469 1,417 1,417 Male 1,103 1,055 1,051 1,032 928 1,046 1,130 1,014 1,071 1,100 1,034 Race and Gender African-American Male 53 52 50 58 65 55 44 63 50 68 74 African-American Female 105 99 79 132 78 103 89 95 93 109 105 Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Male 104 113 97 98 60 61 82 76 104 96 93 Asian/Pac. Isl./Alaska Native Female 105 104 123 99 60 72 99 81 108 98 96 Caucasian Male 721 637 657 601 564 653 709 607 644 642 574 Caucasian Female 931 938 917 815 773 848 845 826 884 839 793 Hispanic/Latino Male 146 117 122 162 146 161 174 150 183 194 177 Hispanic/Latino Female 198 174 199 281 265 235 277 261 283 242 268 Multiracial Male 6 24 43 38 40 45 35 36 37 Multiracial Female 8 54 55 55 63 72 55 65 77 Freshman Retention & Graduation 25
Number Entered during Fall Term 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Overall 2,531 2,513 2,553 2,526 2,235 2,454 2,589 2,422 2,540 2,517 2,451 Geographic Origin Chicago 477 405 400 501 435 461 463 422 457 441 380 Elsewhere in IL 167 160 173 82 72 82 67 83 87 75 87 Out of State / Out of Country 700 761 850 767 654 815 934 843 919 1,021 981 Suburban 1,186 1,182 1,127 1,174 1,071 1,092 1,124 1,074 1,077 980 1,002 College Business 792 754 765 621 522 641 668 644 711 668 629 Communication 130 148 210 248 214 231 229 234 271 217 239 Computing & Digital Media 197 157 199 248 230 257 327 285 386 494 506 Education 134 148 134 163 156 143 141 122 97 79 70 Liberal Arts & Soc. Sci. 1,127 1,152 1,114 1,094 972 676 615 512 457 451 424 Music 61 65 54 61 56 65 63 61 48 59 44 Science & Health 370 474 481 494 479 465 Theatre 90 89 77 81 85 71 72 83 76 70 74 First Year Performance High Performance 1,426 1,536 1,685 1,622 1,454 1,630 1,673 1,627 1,618 1,562 1,537 Moderate Performance 563 512 469 488 419 441 512 460 501 506 435 Low Performance 541 465 398 415 361 383 404 335 421 449 479 Academic Preparation High Preparation 621 642 688 680 684 786 835 846 893 824 863 Moderate Preparation 761 848 846 827 767 911 985 929 856 893 861 Low Preparation 1,149 1,023 1,019 1,019 784 757 769 647 791 800 726 Freshman Retention & Graduation 26
Methodology All data is based on first-time, full-time, degree-seeking freshman students. FYAS students are included with the cohort entering in the subsequent fall quarter. Measurement year translates into cohort by subtracting one year for 1st year retention, 4 years for 4th year graduation and 6 years for 6th year graduation (i.e. 2017 measurement year = 2016 cohort 1st year retention rate, 2013 cohort 4th year grad rate, and 2011 cohort 6th year grad rate). Academic preparation index is a weighted composite of pre-collegiate academic characteristics including (but not limited to) high school GPA, ACT/SAT test scores, high school quality ratings. Retention by Entry college does not track the students movements into other colleges at DePaul. The rates are based on if the student persisted or graduated DePaul on the whole, and are measured by the college in which they first entered DePaul in their first fall entry term. 2011 cohort marks the first year with 1 st year retention rates after the CSH and LAS split. All prior cohorts graduation rates represent the prior college of LA&S. Freshman Retention & Graduation 27