1 BAY AREA HOUSTON ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP A DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND FORECAST 2/19/2013 Then, Now and Tomorrow
2 Preview: Cities and Zip Codes Demographic Profile Education Economic Trends The Future
The 13 Cities 3 Clear Lake Shores Dickinson El Lago Friendswood Kemah La Porte League City Nassau Bay Pasadena Seabrook Taylor Lake Village Webster Houston (4 Zip Codes)
4 The 17 Zip Codes [With population; Houston Zip Codes] 77034 77505 77058 77506 77059 77539 77062 77546 77089 77565 77502 77571 77503 77573 77504 77586 77598
5 Demographic Highlights Then and Now
Population Population Growth & Change 6 600,000 BAHEP Region Population Source: US Census by Zip Code 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000-1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Hispanic/Latino
A Well-educated Citizenry 7 City-based Educational Attainment 25 Yrs + Graduate/profess. Degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree 1990 2010 Some college, no degree High school graduate 9th to 12th grade, no diploma Less than 9th grade 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent in Category
Professional Jobs Emphasis 8 BAHEP Employment by Occupation 2010 City-based Civilian Population > 16 years = 165,926 Production, transport., mat'l moving Natural resources, construct. & maint. Sales and office occupations Service occupations Management, business, science, & arts 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent in Category
Above Average Incomes 9 $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $10,000 to $14,999 Less than $10,000 BAHEP Household Income 2010 [Based on Total Households = 118,896 Inflation Adjusted in 2010 Dollars] 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Percent in Category
Large Private Sector 10 BAHEP Region--Class of Worker 2010 [Total Workers = 165,926] 14% 6% Pvt. wage & salary Govt workers Self-employed 80%
BAHEP Labor Force & Aerospace 11 BAHEP Employed with Aerospace [Estimated--All Zip Codes] 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1990 2000 2010 Employed Less Aerospace Aerospace
12 Per Capita Income (Amer. Comm. Survey, 2006-2009 Non-BAHEP Cities) Nassau Bay $ 53,871 Taylor Lake Village $ 52,404 Clear Lake Shores $ 45,835 El Lago $ 44,681 Friendswood $ 39,515 The Woodlands $ 37,724 League City $ 35,991 Seabrook $ 35,225 Kingwood $ 32,491 Kemah $ 32,136 Dickinson $ 26,543 Pearland $ 26,306 La Porte $ 25,604 Webster $ 25,520 Pasadena $ 19,940
13 Schools & University Then and Now
BAHEP Region School Districts 2011 14 District Name Clear Creek Dickinson Friendswood La Porte Pasadena Academic Rating Recognized Recognized Exemplary Recognized Recognized
BAHEP Region ISD Growth 15 BAHEP REGION: 5-ISD Growth Indicators Student Year Count % Chng. Schools % Chng. 2000 90,041 114 2005 104,979 17 118 4 2010 113,046 8 142 20
16 University of Houston-Clear Lake 2000 2005 2010 Fall Term Enrollment 7,580 7,785 8,099 First Freshmen admissions Fall 2014! Hispanic-Serving Institution
17 The BAHEP Economy Then and Now
US Recessions & BAHEP Cities 18 Unemployment Rates Select BAHEP Cities 12.0 10.0 1990 Recession 2001 Recession Great Recession 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Friendswood La Porte League City Pasadena Houston MSA
Millions $ Broad Major Industry Base 19 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 BAHEP 12-City Major Industry Gross Sales [Excludes Houston] RETAIL PROF. & BUS. SVCS MANUF. HOSPITALITY & LEIS. FINANCE EDUC AND HLTH SVCS CONSTRUCTION $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4-City Labor Force and Employment 20 BAHEP 4-City Employment Counts [Friendswood, La Porte, League City, Pasadena] 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Employed Labor Force
Upward Growth Trend 21 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $- BAHEP 12-City Sales Tax Reimbursements (Millions $) 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Current Infl. Adj.
22 The Road Ahead Tomorrow
Summary Trends 23 Positive population growth Employment trends on par with Houston MSA, better than US average Sales in major industries returning to longterm growth trends
Positive Forces in the Short Term 24 Modest growth for the US, Texas, and Houston area is supported by leading indicators related to: Housing Employment Oil prices Manufacturing Wages/salaries Retail sales
US Economic Growth 25 US Leading Index 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Texas Economic Growth 26 Texas Leading Index 130 125 120 115 110 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Houston Economic Growth 27 320 Houston-Sugarland-Baytown Business Cycle Index 300 280 260 2011 2012 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Few Concerns for the Short Term 28 Fiscal Cliff spending cuts (March) Some volatility in oil prices World events: European economy Syria/other conflicts
Positive Forces for the Long-Term 29 Regional infrastructure: Healthcare Aerospace Chemical Maritime Population patterns: Young Educated/trained
Other Thoughts on the Long-Term 30 Natural gas prices Keystone pipeline Direction of aerospace Long-term Federal budget
31 Presenters Robert F. Hodgin, Ph.D. & Roberto Marchesini, Ph.D. with Jason Murasko, Ph.D. & Stephen Cotten, Ph.D. School of Business University of Houston-Clear Lake