MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL FEBRUARY 2018 2018 GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY RACES EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Tuesday, February 6, 2018 Broadcast & Internet Release - 6 am. Tuesday, February 6, 2018 Copyright 2018 Tracking public opinion in Florida since 1984 1
BOTH GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES HOTLY CONTESTED GRAHAM & LEVINE TOP DEMOCRATIC FIELD PUTNAM & DESANTIS ALSO IN TIGHT BATTLE ON GOP SIDE OVER 40% STILL UNDECIDED IN EACH RACE Right now, the only things that are certain about Florida s 2018 gubernatorial primaries are that the outcomes are far from certain, a lot of money is going to be poured into these two very competitive races and the voters are not fully tuned in. On the Democratic side, former Congresswomen Gwen Graham holds a very slim lead over Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine. Statewide, 20% of likely Democratic primary voters currently support Graham, while 17% back Levine, 10% are for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, just 4% favor businessman Chris King and a significant 49% are undecided. DEM GOVERNOR PRIMARY UNDECIDED 49% GRAHAM 20% LEVINE 17% GILLUM 10% GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED KING 4% 2
On the Republican side, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is slightly ahead of Congressman Ron DeSantis. Statewide, 27% support Putnam, 23% back DeSantis, 7% are for House Speaker Richard Corcoran and 43% are undecided. GOP GOVERNOR PRIMARY PUTNAM UNDECIDED 43% PUTNAM 27% DESANTIS 23% DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED CORCORAN 7% The current results largely reflect name recognition and none of the candidates appear to be hampered by high negative ratings from their party voters. It is interesting to note that both front-runners have leads that are smaller than their recognition advantages. Graham, the daughter of former Governor & Senator Bob Graham, has an 8-point name recognition margin over Levine, but just a 3-point lead. Putnam, the only candidate to have run statewide, has a name recognition advantage of 7-points over DeSantis, but only a 4-point lead. Graham s total recognition of 65% among Democrats is likely lower than many insiders would expect, but her father s name has not appeared on the state ballot in 20 years. Putnam has only 63% recognition among GOP voters, as his position in the state cabinet is low profile. Traditional expectations in primary elections based on insider baseball no longer apply in a growing and ever-changing state. As both parties have polarized, establishment backing is no longer a great advantage. 3
. STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? *** 500 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS *** RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Gwen Graham 28% 2% 35% 35% Philip Levine 17% 3% 37% 43% Andrew Gillum 13% 3% 24% 60% Chris King 5% 1% 16% 78% *** 500 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *** RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Adam Putnam 32% 2% 29% 37% Ron DeSantis 23% 3% 30% 44% Richard Corcoran 7% 2% 21% 70% 4
***500 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS *** QUESTION: If the 2018 Democratic primary for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between: (ORDER ROTATED) - Andrew Gillum - Gwen Graham - Chris King - Philip Levine GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED STATE 20% 17% 10% 4% 49% REGION GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED North Florida 28% 14% 18% 3% 37% Central Florida 18% 11% 13% 12% 46% Tampa Bay/SW Gulf Coast 16% 17% 5% 2% 60% Southeast Florida 19% 22% 7% 2% 50% SEX GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED Men 13% 23% 7% 5% 52% Women 25% 13% 12% 3% 47% AGE GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED 18-49 17% 12% 13% 1% 57% 50-64 18% 17% 9% 4% 52% 65+ 24% 21% 8% 6% 41% RACE GRAHAM LEVINE GILLUM KING UNDECIDED White 21% 21% 3% 7% 48% Black 17% 13% 22% - 48% Hispanic 21% 12% 11% - 56% 5
***500 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS *** QUESTION: If the 2018 Republican primary for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between: (ORDER ROTATED): - Richard Corcoran - Ron DeSantis - Adam Putnam PUTNAM DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED STATE 27% 23% 7% 43% REGION PUTNAM DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED North Florida 17% 28% 8% 47% Central Florida 29% 22% 5% 44% Tampa Bay/SW Gulf Coast 35% 17% 9% 39% Southeast Florida 25% 26% 6% 43% SEX PUTNAM DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED Men 28% 25% 9% 38% Women 26% 21% 6% 47% AGE PUTNAM DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED 18-49 20% 18% 5% 55% 50-64 27% 25% 6% 42% 65+ 32% 25% 9% 34% RACE PUTNAM DESANTIS CORCORAN UNDECIDED White 28% 24% 7% 41% Hispanic 22% 15% 6% 57% 6
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from January 29 through February 1, 2018. A total of 500 registered Democratic voters and 500 registered Republican voters in Florida were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated that regularly voted in their respective state primary elections. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error for each sample, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 7
DEMOGRAPHICS AGE: DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 18-34 58 (12%) 50 (10%) 35-49 91 (18%) 90 (18%) 50-64 142 (28%) 165 (33%) 65+ 206 (41%) 193 (39%) Refused 3 (1%) 2 - RACE/ETHNICITY: White/Caucasian 266 (53%) 417 (83%) Black/African American 142 (28%) 4 (1%) Hispanic or Cuban 75 (15%) 65 (13%) Other 15 (3%) 9 (2%) Refused 2 (1%) 5 (1%) SEX: Male 203 (41%) 249 (50%) Female 297 (59%) 251 (50%) REGION: North Florida 90 (18%) 120 (24%) Central Florida 105 (21%) 115 (23%) Tampa Bay/SW Gulf Coast 130 (26%) 155 (31%) Southeast Florida 175 (35%) 110 (22%) 8
FLORIDA POLL REGIONS NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns, Flagler, Union, Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties. CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties. TAMPA BAY/SOUTHWEST GULF COAST: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties. SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. 9