Linia Gopo Climate Applications

Linia Gopo Climate Applications

SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST INDICATORS Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)..(ENSO) SSTS PRIOR HEATING (e.g. A hot September and October is an indicator for a good summer rainfall season) WINDS WESTERLY CLOUD BANDS TELECONNECTIONS TRADITIONAL INDICATORS

Probabilistic CPC ENSO Outlook for 2014/2015

Probabilistic CPC ENSO Outlook for 2015/2016

ENSO vs SPI Scatter plot for Seasons 1950/1951 to 2009/2010 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 gfedcb Lanina gfedcb Neutral gfedcb El Nino

ENSO versus Zimbabwe rainfall Above Normal Below Normal Total El Nino 8 38% 13 62% 21 La Nina 10 67% 5 33% 15 Neutral 13 54% 11 46% 24 60

Region 1 Harare, much of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands, parts Manicaland Below normal rainfall expected Region 2 & 3 Region 2 The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of Mashonaland West. Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South. Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected Homogeneous Zones (Oct- December 2015)

Region 1 & 2 Region 1 Harare, much of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands, parts Manicaland Region 2 The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of Mashonaland West. Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South. Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall expected Homogeneous Zones (Nov-Dec 2015-Jan 2016)

Region 2The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of Mashonaland West. Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected Region 1 & 3 Region 1 Harare, much of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands, parts Manicaland Homogeneous Zones (Dec-Feb 2015-Jan 2016) Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South. Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall

Region 1 Mashonaland Provinces, Harare, most of Manicaland, northern parts of Masvingo and northern parts of Midlands. Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall expected Regions 2 and 3 Region 2 Most of Matabeleland North, northwest Matebeleland South, Bulawayo. Region3 Most of Masvingo, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland, southeast Matebeleland South and the southern parts of Midlands Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected Homogeneous Zones (Jan- March 2016)

Implications of the forecast for the 2015/16 rainfall season There is a high likelihood of a late start to the season for the whole country. A short summer rainfall season (December to February) is expected especially over Region 1. Hence an option for small grains, short season variety and staggering plants would be encouraged (Agric) There is need to enhance rainfall this season as such the national cloud seeding programme is highly recommended.

Implications cont For those with livestock (a)water points should be preserved and protected and (b) livestock destocking should be given more consideration and done timeously to avoid losses. It is still possible to harvest grass for fodder in those areas where forest fires have not And those with access to dams with water should compliment their farming with irrigation. been lit

Some Agrometeorological Products Days 26 Jan 16 Jan 6 Jan 27 Dec 17 Dec 7 Dec 27 Nov 180 170 160 150 5140 May 130 25 Apr 120 15 Apr 110 5100 Apr 900 800 Season length for Zvishavane Start of the Season for Zvishavane End of Season for Zvishavane Seasonal total for Zvishavane 17 Nov 7 Nov 28 Oct 90 26 Mar 80 16 Mar 70 6 Mar 1962 1962 1965 1962 700 600 500 400 300 200 1965 1968 1968 1971 1971 1974 1974 1977 1977 1980 1980 1983 1983 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1986 1986 1989 1989 Any day after 1 October when an area recieves 20 mm or more of rain in 3 days or less provided there is no dry spell of 10 days or more in the next 30 days 1992 1992 When water balance is zero or when there is no moisture available to the plant after a place recieves 10 mm or more 1989 962 965 968 971 974 977 980 983 986 989 992 995 998 001 004 007 010 013 1992 1995 1995 1995 1998 1998 1998 2001 2001 2001 2004 2004 2004 2007 2007 2010 2010 2013

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