Richardson Independent School District Demographic Study Report January 13, 2014 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
Economic Conditions Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller s Office) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (November 2013) - U.S. 6.6% - Texas 5.8% - DFW MSA 5.6% - Collin County 5.1% - Dallas County 6.1% - City of Dallas 6.1% - City of Richardson 5.0% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2
National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept. 2013 4.0% 3.5% Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3
DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings Annual Starts & Closings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 21,013 18,855-3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 4
DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply 3.2-28% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 5
DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 3Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 3,008 2,534 4,072 9,073 2 Northwest ISD 1,260 1,101 1,750 22,174 3 Denton ISD 1,234 1,101 2,330 14,585 4 Keller ISD 813 844 1,269 3,218 5 Lewisville ISD 946 834 1,598 2,549 6 Dallas ISD 892 793 2,138 7,329 7 Prosper ISD 918 771 1,494 15,320 8 McKinney ISD 714 662 1,247 7,225 9 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD 725 661 1,603 20,004 10 Little Elm ISD 635 653 807 7,031 11 Mansfield ISD 618 615 757 5,692 12 Allen ISD 606 563 966 1,373 13 Rockwall ISD 555 442 1,630 8,108 14 Crowley ISD 374 406 1,897 8,229 15 Plano ISD 372 393 828 1,361 16 Forney ISD 441 378 1,401 11,477 17 Wylie ISD 344 356 574 5,324 18 Fort Worth ISD 347 347 1,069 4,638 19 Burleson ISD 391 335 727 3,662 20 Carrollton Farmers Branch ISD 295 329 408 923 37 Coppell ISD 90 109 142 1,152 38 Richardson ISD 151 108 95 163 39 Mesquite ISD 68 98 130 4,612 Totals 21,104 19,050 46,905 279,309 6
Residential Activity Lake Highlands Town Center Haven Lake Highlands Haven Lake Highlands 1,000+ apartments, condos and townhomes 200 unit apartment under construction 250,000+ sq. ft. of retail space Estimated build out is 2Q15 White Rock Elementary Zone 7
Residential Activity GreenVUE Apartments COLLINS BLVD ALMA RD GreenVUE 400 high density apartments Under construction Low student yields expected (50-75 students) Mark Twain Elementary 8
Residential Activity Parkside Towns Parkside Towns 135 Townhomes Under construction Expected build out 1Q14 Mohawk Elementary 9
Residential Activity Savoy Landing Savoy Landing 56 Patio Homes Platting approved Mohawk Elementary 10
Residential Activity The Palisades The Palisades 680 total units proposed 80 townhomes 600 high-end apartments Up for approval with the Richardson City Plan Commission Only 38% of the property is in RISD This includes approximately 240 apartment units Prairie Creek Elementary 11
Multi-family Historical Occupancy DFW, South & U.S. Markets 12
Multi-family Historical Occupancy Richardson Markets The City of Richardson had the 3 rd highest occupancy rate in the DFW area with 96.1% for 4Q13. Period DFW Dallas Far North Dallas North Dallas Northeast Dallas Richardson 4Q08 91.50% 91.80% 92.20% 93.20% 90.90% 93.40% 4Q09 89.00% 89.20% 89.50% 89.20% 83.70% 90.50% 4Q10 91.40% 91.60% 92.30% 92.50% 84.90% 94.10% 4Q11 93.30% 93.50% 95.10% 94.50% 87.70% 94.70% 4Q12 93.70% 93.90% 95.00% 96.20% 89.40% 95.20% 4Q13 94.40% 94.60% 95.30% 95.70% 91.50% 96.10% 13
Multi Family Yield Decline *Using the same 155 complexes from 2012-13. 2012 13 2013 14 Change Students 14886 13743 1143 Average Yield 0.43 0.39 0.04 14
5-Year Total Enrollment Change 2007/08 2012/13 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08 2012/13 Growth 5 YEAR PCT Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,285 56% 2 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,866 11% 3 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,827 106% 4 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,789 16% 5 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,682 25% 6 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,488 7% 7 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,282 7% 8 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,018 9% 9 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1,611 6% 10 FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1,556 22% 11 PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1,505 3% 12 ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1,419 11% 13 LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1,149 46% 14 DALLAS ISD 157,804 158,915 1,111 1% 15 WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1,091 17% 16 COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1,049 11% 17 GARLAND ISD 57,169 58,056 887 2% 18 DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13,271 804 6% 19 PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3,435 761 28% 20 ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4,905 761 18% 21 MIDLOTHIAN ISD 6,830 7,560 730 11% 22 SUNNYVALE ISD 671 1,291 620 92% 23 CRANDALL ISD 2,454 3,030 576 23% 24 MELISSA ISD 1,137 1,695 558 49% 25 HIGHLAND PARK ISD 6,324 6,848 524 8% 26 ANNA ISD 2,008 2,526 518 26% 27 RED OAK ISD 5,179 5,633 454 9% 28 SHERMAN ISD 6,501 6,917 416 6% 29 CEDAR HILL ISD 7,867 8,258 391 5% 30 CELINA ISD 1,719 2,036 317 18% 15
Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged 2009/10 2013/14 Black or African American % Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native % American Indian or Alaska Native Two or more races % Two or More Races Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander % Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander % % % Year (Oct.) Total Hispanic Hispanic Asian Asian White White 2009/10 34,843 8,728 25.0% 12,496 35.9% 135 0.4% 2,554 7.3% 10,930 31.4% TEA CHANGES IN RACE/ETHNICITY REPORTING 2010/11 36,070 8,413 23.3% 13,757 38.1% 119 0.3% 2,383 6.6% 10,527 29.2% 826 2.3% 45 0.1% 2011/12 37,044 8,564 23.1% 14,329 38.7% 128 0.3% 2,544 6.9% 10,554 28.5% 882 2.4% 43 0.1% 2012/13 38,043 8,733 23.0% 14,991 39.4% 130 0.3% 2,569 6.8% 10,690 28.1% 896 2.4% 34 0.1% 2013/14 38,275 8,490 22.2% 15,299 40.0% 146 0.4% 2,632 6.9% 10,705 28.0% 968 2.5% 35 0.1% Year (Oct.) Economically Disadvantaged % ED 2009/10 19,135 54.9% 2010/11 20,442 56.7% 2011/12 21,080 56.9% 2012/13 22,021 57.9% 2013/14 21,182 55.3% Richardson ISD Race/Ethnicity Chart MORE THAN ONE, 968, 2.5% HAWAIIAN/PACIF IC ISLANDER, 35, 0.1% WHITE, 10705, 28.0% BLACK, 8490, 22.2% ASIAN, 2632, 6.9% HISPANIC/LATINO, 15299, 40.0% AM. INDIAN/ALASKA NATIVE, 146, 0.4% 16
Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2009/10 1,502 2,881 2,889 2,845 2,702 2,637 2,523 2,405 2,568 2,509 2,689 2,490 2,091 2,112 34,843 2010/11 1,612 3,033 2,902 2,949 2,898 2,752 2,673 2,597 2,481 2,589 2,777 2,445 2,247 2,115 36,070 1,227 3.5% 2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,089 2,925 2,927 2,879 2,750 2,710 2,668 2,499 2,845 2,511 2,223 2,109 37,044 974 2.7% 2012/13 1,703 3,309 3,279 3,102 2,936 2,905 2,870 2,771 2,800 2,572 2,827 2,570 2,291 2,108 38,043 999 2.7% 2013/14 1,624 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 2,153 38,275 232 0.6% Cohort Analysis *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year cohorts EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2010/11 1.07 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.11 0.91 0.90 1.01 2011/12 1.02 1.08 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.10 0.90 0.91 0.94 2012/13 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 0.96 1.13 0.90 0.91 0.95 2013/14 0.95 0.98 1.01 0.97 0.96 0.97 1.01 0.96 1.02 0.98 1.10 0.89 0.91 0.94 Rollup Analysis EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth rollup 1,624 3,256 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 39,378 1,103 prev cohort 1,624 3,204 3,273 3,228 3,047 2,870 2,858 2,818 2,831 2,776 3,003 2,504 2,275 2,190 38,499 224 3 yr avg 1,624 3,336 3,287 3,307 3,133 2,923 2,841 2,912 2,841 2,791 3,036 2,534 2,282 2,195 39,042 767 17
Student Mobility From 2012-13 to 2013-14, newcomers decreased by 386 students, while leavers increased by 400 students. This accounts for a drop in expected enrollment growth of 768 students. 2012 13 2013 14 Difference Newcomers 8049 7681 368 Leavers 7049 7449 +400 Student Gain +1000 +232 768 * Student geocode data is taken from an enrollment snapshot, totals may vary from official enrollment reports. Newcomers: Number of student IDs that were in the 2013-14 student geocode, and did not exist in 2012-13 student file (includes incoming KG). Leavers: Number of student IDs that were in the 2012-13 student geocode, and did not exist in 2013-14 student file (includes graduating seniors). 18
Mobility Patterns New to district Minus EE/PK/KG 19
Mobility Patterns Left district Minus 12 th graders 20
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct.) EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2009/10 1,502 2,881 2,889 2,845 2,702 2,637 2,523 2,405 2,568 2,509 2,689 2,490 2,091 2,112 34,843 2010/11 1,612 3,033 2,902 2,949 2,898 2,752 2,673 2,597 2,481 2,589 2,777 2,445 2,247 2,115 36,070 1,227 3.5% 2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,089 2,925 2,927 2,879 2,750 2,710 2,668 2,499 2,845 2,511 2,223 2,109 37,044 974 2.7% 2012/13 1,703 3,309 3,279 3,102 2,936 2,905 2,870 2,771 2,800 2,572 2,827 2,570 2,291 2,108 38,043 999 2.7% 2013/14 1,624 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 2,153 38,275 232 0.6% 2014/15 1,624 3,178 3,256 3,217 3,097 2,913 2,837 2,903 2,798 2,789 3,004 2,529 2,284 2,186 38,614 339 0.9% 2015/16 1,624 3,158 3,198 3,208 3,186 3,072 2,914 2,846 2,902 2,743 3,072 2,694 2,303 2,150 39,070 457 1.2% 2016/17 1,624 3,186 3,196 3,186 3,168 3,165 3,107 2,940 2,858 2,875 3,015 2,739 2,452 2,174 39,685 615 1.6% 2017/18 1,624 3,212 3,191 3,164 3,154 3,130 3,175 3,102 2,944 2,798 3,155 2,697 2,490 2,308 40,144 459 1.2% 2018/19 1,624 3,275 3,221 3,224 3,176 3,167 3,130 3,148 3,082 2,887 3,056 2,821 2,452 2,345 40,607 463 1.2% 2019/20 1,624 3,305 3,287 3,194 3,183 3,141 3,180 3,125 3,130 3,056 3,160 2,729 2,566 2,310 40,990 383 0.9% 2020/21 1,624 3,287 3,317 3,255 3,168 3,135 3,139 3,153 3,101 3,087 3,345 2,825 2,482 2,417 41,334 344 0.8% 2021/22 1,624 3,297 3,301 3,290 3,210 3,124 3,126 3,144 3,132 3,059 3,371 2,990 2,569 2,338 41,575 241 0.6% 2022/23 1,624 3,305 3,312 3,263 3,251 3,157 3,120 3,119 3,123 3,087 3,343 3,014 2,720 2,420 41,858 283 0.7% 2023/24 1,624 3,327 3,324 3,280 3,231 3,205 3,150 3,121 3,097 3,089 3,375 2,990 2,742 2,562 42,117 259 0.6% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Large class sizes will begin impacting secondary campuses by the year 2015/2016 school year. Enrollment will exceed 40,000 students by Fall 2017 Five year enrollment growth = 2,332 Ten year enrollment growth = 3,842 21
Campus Enrollment Projections Past enrollment projections were calculated based upon the campus attending numbers from the fall student data. The projections assumed that all program, choice and transfer students remained at their attending campus through the final grade for the campus. This year s projections use a different starting point taking into consideration the return of the overflow students back to their home campus. All program and choice students will remain in their attending campus through the final grade for the campus. 2013/2014 column in the campus projection table is the October attending number. 22
Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 DOBIE PRIMARY 689 689 696 679 676 685 682 683 689 690 693 AIKIN ELEMENTARY 758 764 780 798 783 786 778 777 787 818 860 ARAPAHO CLASSICAL MAGNET 543 543 551 550 556 559 554 545 538 528 521 AUDELIA CREEK ELEMENTARY 684 751 775 795 806 834 838 854 848 840 828 BIG SPRINGS ELEMENTARY 449 362 347 345 345 356 351 369 384 393 404 BOWIE ELEMENTARY 553 549 573 612 636 660 684 685 679 680 678 BRENTFIELD ELEMENTARY 645 648 657 694 712 700 711 708 690 677 670 CANYON CREEK ELEMENTARY 268 248 243 244 247 256 265 273 278 280 274 BUKHAIR ELEMENTARY 756 778 802 818 831 846 843 852 849 875 875 DARTMOUTH ELEMENTARY 350 346 342 338 337 340 341 343 348 346 352 DOVER ELEMENTARY 633 756 745 749 733 706 697 690 692 692 697 FOREST LANE ELEMENTARY 782 806 825 853 834 831 826 834 823 810 822 FORESTRIDGE ELEMENTARY 664 681 678 666 666 662 661 671 670 664 668 GREENWOOD HILLS ELEMENTARY 418 340 347 354 366 369 397 398 413 422 432 HAMILTON PARK ELEMENTARY 702 682 670 653 634 618 613 620 631 636 652 JESS HARBEN ELEMENTARY 402 334 332 333 337 335 335 343 351 362 375 LAKE HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY 738 684 696 720 713 740 746 747 759 758 748 MARK TWAIN ELEMENTARY 468 497 490 474 483 475 474 473 464 459 457 THURGOOD MARSHALL ELEMENTARY 670 669 673 695 703 708 709 708 716 707 709 MERRIMAN PARK ELEMENTARY 442 541 541 529 543 522 520 522 521 522 529 MOHAWK ELEMENTARY 368 368 373 388 391 404 403 422 432 434 441 MOSS HAVEN ELEMENTARY 439 401 401 408 409 410 413 414 420 427 432 MST MAGNET 573 567 563 556 559 551 560 541 545 540 551 NORTHLAKE ELEMENTARY 646 652 660 660 653 659 677 666 669 677 687 NORTHRICH ELEMENTARY 517 462 455 478 486 502 512 525 534 536 533 NORTHWOOD ELEMENTARY 398 397 379 383 403 404 409 397 393 400 398 O'HENRY ELEMENTARY 456 407 392 414 425 435 450 448 453 449 444 PRAIRIE CREEK ELEMENTARY 307 307 312 326 342 375 372 392 409 413 416 PRESTONWOOD ELEMENTARY 418 447 469 470 486 482 481 487 485 497 505 RICHARDSON HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY 506 516 509 526 521 511 496 484 484 478 480 23
Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 RICHARDSON TERRACE ELEMENTARY 521 514 518 532 545 559 572 575 578 577 570 RICHLAND ELEMENTARY 614 711 735 755 761 772 741 728 717 712 708 RISD ACADEMY 939 954 951 1,004 988 981 986 966 955 932 939 SKYVIEW ELEMENTARY 767 788 811 824 858 884 908 915 901 894 887 SPRING CREEK ELEMENTARY 333 336 347 356 363 377 374 380 386 388 392 SPRING VALLEY ELEMENTARY 423 429 416 410 410 417 414 413 417 419 422 SPRINGRIDGE ELEMENTARY 396 363 331 338 338 354 360 365 366 376 370 STULTS ROAD ELEMENTARY 744 766 822 842 839 840 809 808 801 788 792 WALLACE ELEMENTARY 705 749 766 774 778 787 789 786 796 798 788 WHITE ROCK ELEMENTARY 752 802 829 837 858 851 863 839 809 813 828 YALE ELEMENTARY 445 413 401 388 394 420 421 428 432 440 431 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 22,881 23,020 23,202 23,568 23,748 23,960 24,035 24,074 24,112 24,147 24,258 Elementary Percent Change 0.03% 0.61% 0.79% 1.58% 0.76% 0.89% 0.31% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.46% Elementary Absolute Change 8 139 182 366 180 212 75 39 38 35 111 Five year elementary growth = 1,079 additional students 24
Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus JUNIOR HIGH CAMPUSES 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 APOLLO JUNIOR HIGH 639 657 663 679 680 720 739 743 745 746 742 FOREST MEADOW JUNIOR HIGH 733 776 760 771 784 814 843 847 846 850 845 LAKE HIGHLANDS JUNIOR HIGH 787 822 814 835 839 873 906 909 909 912 907 LIBERTY JUNIOR HIGH 697 659 685 693 692 706 763 741 747 755 745 PARKHILL JUNIOR HIGH 604 597 611 620 623 653 674 677 678 680 676 RICHARDSON NORTH JUNIOR HIGH 630 604 620 637 626 672 677 701 694 684 700 RICHARDSON WEST JUNIOR HIGH 789 781 786 801 805 840 870 873 874 876 872 WESTWOOD JUNIOR HIGH 687 681 696 685 682 678 704 688 688 696 689 JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,566 5,576 5,634 5,722 5,731 5,958 6,175 6,177 6,180 6,199 6,175 Junior High Percent Change 4.00% 0.18% 1.05% 1.55% 0.17% 3.96% 3.64% 0.03% 0.05% 0.31% 0.38% Junior High Absolute Change 214 10 59 87 9 227 217 2 3 19 24 HIGH SCHOOL AND ALTERNATIVE CAMPUSES 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 BERKNER HIGH SCHOOL 2,534 2,504 2,466 2,489 2,544 2,538 2,576 2,670 2,712 2,773 2,829 LAKE HIGHLANDS FRESHMAN CENTER 773 755 878 829 863 859 881 930 946 937 946 LAKE HIGHLANDS HIGH SCHOOL 1,718 1,758 1,750 1,847 1,882 1,962 1,949 1,988 2,042 2,108 2,147 PEARCE HIGH SCHOOL 2,178 2,241 2,285 2,318 2,377 2,353 2,398 2,463 2,515 2,580 2,606 RICHARDSON HIGH SCHOOL 2,572 2,707 2,802 2,859 2,946 2,924 2,923 2,980 3,015 3,061 3,103 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 9,775 9,965 10,181 10,342 10,612 10,636 10,727 11,031 11,230 11,459 11,631 High School Percent Change 0.26% 1.94% 2.17% 1.58% 2.61% 0.23% 0.86% 2.83% 1.81% 2.04% 1.50% High School Absolute Change 25 190 216 161 270 24 91 304 199 229 172 McAULIFFE LEARNING CENTER 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 PASS LEARNING CENTER(JJAEP) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 DISTRICT TOTALS 38,275 38,614 39,070 39,685 40,144 40,607 40,990 41,334 41,575 41,858 42,117 District Percent Change 0.61% 0.89% 1.18% 1.57% 1.16% 1.15% 0.94% 0.84% 0.58% 0.68% 0.62% District Absolute Change 232 339 457 615 459 463 383 344 241 283 259 25
Summary Texas economy continues to out perform the nation with strong job growth. This year the district had an increase in the number of Leavers likely due to increasing rent rates and high apartment occupancy rates. Future growth will be driven by single family regeneration. District in position to see 339 additional students fall 2014. Largest two classes continue to be Kindergarten and 1 st grades. Richardson ISD could see an additional 2,332 students during the next 5 years. (Total Enrollment 2018/19 = 40,607 students) 26