Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Assessment NORTHERN VIRGINIA REGIONAL SCAN & PROGRAM DEMAND REPORT

Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Assessment NORTHERN VIRGINIA REGIONAL SCAN & PROGRAM DEMAND REPORT Focus on Associate Degrees (Report #07 09) August 2009

Regional Scan & Program Demand Report Focus on Associate Degrees NOVA OIR Report #07-09 Prepared for Northern Virginia Community College by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc.

Contents Executive Summary 3 Regional Population Summary 4 Population: Detailed Data 5 Educational Attainment 6 Regional Industry Summary 10 Regional Industries: Detailed Data 11 Regional Occupation Summary 22 Regional Occupations: Detailed Data 23 Occupation Demand & Program Comparison 27 About EMSI & the Data 32 Introduction This report is designed to integrate and analyze data from multiple sources with the goal of helping community and technical colleges (and other regional stakeholders) with their strategic planning efforts. The overall goal is to help colleges align their program offerings with the demographic and economic characteristics of their service regions. To do this, the report provides an overview of the region s population, economy, and workforce, using state and national comparisons where appropriate to highlight unique regional characteristics. The industry and occupation employment numbers are based on numerous published sources from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and the National Center for Education Statistics. In addition, the report integrates industry/occupation data and projections created by the labor market information agencies of the individual state(s) included in the selected region. These data sources have been specially processed and harmonized to provide more complete and detailed data than any individual source used. For more information, see the final page of this report. PREPARED FOR: Northern Virginia Community College REGION DEFINITION (COUNTIES): Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Alexandria City, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Manassas City, Manassas Park City Key Terms and Concepts Understanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report. Earnings: For industries, 2009 total annual earnings per worker is reported; these earnings include wages, salaries, profits, and benefits. Occupational earnings are reported as 2009 median hourly wage only. Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Jobs: Full-time and part-time positions held by proprietors and payroll employees in the public or private sector. May exceed actual worker count. Location Quotient (LQ): A measure of how "concentrated" a particular industry, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to a larger reference region, e.g., state or nation. Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Openings (Annual): The sum of new jobs and replacement jobs for a given occupation. Programs: Courses of postsecondary study defined by CIP (Classification of Instructional Programs) codes. Projections: Estimates of future job or population numbers based on (1) recent regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies Replacement Jobs: The estimated number of job openings in an occupation due to retirement, turnover, and other factors aside from job growth. Based on national percentages by occupation. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc.

Executive Summary Regional Demographics From 2009 to 2014, the region can expect the total population to change by 170,883 persons, or 7.93%. The age groups with the highest growth are: Age Group Change in Persons 65 to 69 years 33,363 70 to 74 years 24,674 25 to 29 years 24,276 55 to 59 years 18,723 50 to 54 years 17,307 Similarly, the racial/ethnic groups with the highest expected population growth are: Group Change in Persons White Hispanic 61,603 Asian 50,308 White, Non-Hispanic 26,041 Detailed tables are on pages 4-6. Educational Attainment Total regional attainment of a college degree (any level) is above average compared to the state and above average compared to the nation. Detailed tables are on pages 7 through 10. High-Growth Industries The following industries show the highest total job growth from 2009 to 2014: Computer systems design and related services Management consulting services Local government Offices of real estate agents and brokers Federal government, civilian, except postal service Other activities related to real estate Engineering services Accounting and bookkeeping services Janitorial services Management of companies and enterprises Critical Occupations in High- Growth Industries The following occupations show the most growth within the top ten high-growth industries. Detailed tables begin on p. 18. Management analysts Computer software engineers, applications Computer systems analysts Real estate sales agents Real estate brokers Computer software engineers, systems software Accountants and auditors Network systems and data communications analysts Property, real estate, and community association managers Network and computer systems administrators High-Growth Occupations (Across All Industries) These occupations show the most total growth across all industries. Detail table is on p. 26. Real estate sales agents Real estate brokers Managers, all other Computer specialists, all other Registered nurses Carpenters First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers Computer support specialists First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers College Programs For a quick comparison of the college's completers from the Department of Education's IPEDS database related to the region's highgrowth occupations, turn to page 28. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 3

Regional Population Summary Knowing regional demographics can help colleges provide more targeted services. For example, regions with an aging population may require more classes for older residents to update their job skills. And, of course, a projected rise or decline in total population has serious implications for college enrollment, funding, and facilities planning. Note that nearly all regional numbers are compared to state or national averages this gives an idea of the unique situation facing the region. Regional Change Comparison TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE Total regional population change is above the state average. 2009 Total 2014 Total Change % Change Region 2,153,773 2,324,655 170,882 8% State 7,912,547 8,333,759 421,212 5% CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE 55+ The percentage of people age 55 and over in the region is expected to rise. It is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. Total in Total in % of % of % of Region State Region State Nation 2009 459,021 1,879,113 21% 24% 24% 2014 566,484 2,158,332 24% 26% 26% CHANGE BY RACE, 2009 2014 Race/Ethnicity 2009 Region State Nation Total Change Change Change White, Non-Hispanic 1,253,390 2% 2% 1% White Hispanic 308,267 20% 22% 16% Non-White Hispanic 17,694 19% 18% 16% Black or African American 246,701 8% 6% 5% American Indian or Alaska Native 5,145 9% 8% 7% Asian 271,423 19% 18% 15% Native Hawaiian 1,878 15% 15% 10% and other Pacific Islander Two or more races 49,274 18% 20% 17% Concentrated Groups These tables show which regional demographic groups have an above-average presence in the region compared to the state and nation. This is calculated using location quotients or LQs (see p. 2). An LQ of 1.0 indicates a group accounts for an average percentage of the total population. AGE GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Age 2009 LQ (State) 35 to 39 years 1.17 40 to 44 years 1.14 Under 5 years 1.11 5 to 9 years 1.09 45 to 49 years 1.09 Above-average presence compared to nation: Age 2009 LQ (Nation) 35 to 39 years 1.22 40 to 44 years 1.19 45 to 49 years 1.12 Under 5 years 1.08 60 to 64 years 1.06 RACE/ETHNICITY GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Group 2009 LQ (State) Asian 2.51 White Hispanic 2.25 Non-White Hispanic 1.43 Above-average presence compared to nation: Group 2009 LQ (Nation) Asian 2.79 Two or more races 1.36 1. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 4

Population: Detailed Data Population by Age Details Age 2009 Population 2014 Population Change Change % 2009 LQ (State) 2009 LQ (Nation) Under 5 years 159,590 163,940 4,350 3% 1.11 1.08 5 to 9 years 151,049 159,067 8,018 5% 1.09 1.06 10 to 14 years 141,338 157,989 16,651 12% 1.05 1.01 15 to 19 years 131,840 138,633 6,793 5% 0.90 0.87 20 to 24 years 132,030 143,696 11,666 9% 0.85 0.88 25 to 29 years 136,270 160,546 24,276 18% 0.89 0.90 30 to 34 years 147,431 142,845-4,586-3% 1.03 1.05 35 to 39 years 177,854 155,893-21,961-12% 1.17 1.22 40 to 44 years 177,375 179,019 1,644 1% 1.14 1.19 45 to 49 years 179,862 179,124-738 0% 1.09 1.12 50 to 54 years 160,113 177,420 17,307 11% 1.04 1.05 55 to 59 years 139,224 157,947 18,723 13% 1.04 1.05 60 to 64 years 119,142 134,533 15,391 13% 1.04 1.06 65 to 69 years 78,172 111,535 33,363 43% 0.93 0.95 70 to 74 years 47,541 72,215 24,674 52% 0.77 0.76 75 to 79 years 31,203 41,098 9,895 32% 0.66 0.62 80 to 84 years 22,417 24,809 2,392 11% 0.62 0.56 85 years and over 21,322 24,347 3,025 14% 0.62 0.52 Total 2,153,773 2,324,655 170,882 8% Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 5

Educational Attainment 2009 LQ 2009 LQ Race/Ethnicity 2009 Population 2014 Population Change Change % (State) (Nation) White, Non-Hispanic 1,253,390 1,279,431 26,041 2% 0.88 0.89 White Hispanic 308,267 369,870 61,603 20% 2.25 0.98 Non-White Hispanic 17,694 21,010 3,316 19% 1.43 0.85 Black or African American 246,701 266,721 20,020 8% 0.59 0.93 American Indian or Alaska Native 5,145 5,629 484 9% 0.84 0.31 Asian 271,423 321,731 50,308 19% 2.51 2.79 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 1,878 2,154 276 15% 1.42 0.62 Two or more races 49,274 58,110 8,836 18% 1.31 1.36 In today's competitive knowledge economy, advanced education, training, and skills are more vital than ever. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 6

Studies also show that higher education levels are strongly tied to higher earnings, lower unemployment rates, and improved lifestyles. Regional educational attainment levels help colleges identify educational gaps in the region s workforce (especially in comparison to state and national levels). This helps state, college, and regional policymakers form a targeted plan to increase workforce education. Note that attainment is only tracked for persons age 25 and older. Educational Attainment Summary In the region, college degree attainment is above average compared to the state and above average compared to the nation. % of Region % of State % of Nation Less Than High School Diploma 8.8% 14.9% 16.7% High School Diploma or Some College 29.5% 44.2% 50.1% College Degree 61.7% 40.9% 33.2% Educational Attainment Totals, Detail 2009 Total % of Region % of State % of Nation Educational Level (age 25+) (age 25+) (age 25+) (age 25+) Less Than 9th Grade 59,055 4.1% 5.4% 6.2% 9th Grade to 12th Grade 67,387 4.7% 9.5% 10.6% High School Diploma 194,829 13.5% 24.2% 28.1% Some College 229,856 16.0% 19.9% 22.0% Associate's Degree 69,014 4.8% 5.4% 6.4% Bachelor's Degree 460,418 32.0% 21.5% 17.0% Graduate Degree and Higher 357,367 24.9% 14.0% 9.7% 1,437,926 100% 100% 100% Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 7

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity COMPARISON OF COLLEGE DEGREE ATTAINMENT TO STATE AND NATION Differences are expressed in percentage points. Positive numbers indicate higher attainment levels in the region compared to the state or nation; negative numbers indicate lower attainment levels in the region. Race/Ethnicity Difference in College Difference in College Attainment (State) Attainment (Nation) White, Non-Hispanic 25.0 33.0 White Hispanic 0.6 17.8 Non-White Hispanic -3.4 6.2 Black or African American 21.8 23.4 American Indian or Alaska Native 18.7 28.8 Asian 3.3 7.2 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 14.5 30.3 Two or more races 11.5 21.3 REGIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE/ETHNICITY, DETAIL 2009 Persons Less Than HS Diploma or College Race/Ethnicity (age 25+) High School Some College Degree White, Non-Hispanic 880,494 33,167 242,466 604,861 White Hispanic 176,630 52,984 58,494 65,153 Non-White Hispanic 10,034 4,469 3,476 2,089 Black or African American 155,898 15,092 66,881 73,925 American Indian or Alaska Native 3,324 249 1,393 1,683 Asian 189,753 17,784 44,603 127,365 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 1,235 70 472 692 Two or more races 20,558 2,626 6,899 11,033 1,437,926 126,442 424,685 886,799 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 8

Educational Attainment by Gender In the region, females have higher high school attainment rates and lower college degree attainment rates compared to males. 2009 Total (age 25+) Less Than High School High School Diploma College Degree Males 701,269 8.8% 25.9% 65.3% Females 736,657 8.8% 33.0% 58.2% Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 9

Regional Industry Summary Part of a college s mission is to support the workforce needs of vital regional industries. By using several different metrics for identifying such industries, this section of the report provides a map of the region s economy, thus helping colleges allocate workforce training resources. The listing of critical occupations within high-growth industries (right column) highlights high-growth occupations in these industries. Because these occupations are not filtered by education level, they may by served by non-credit continuing education, for-credit certificate or associate s track courses, or courses designed for transfer to four-year institutions. Industries with the Most Jobs Computer systems design and related services Local government Federal government, civilian, except postal service Management consulting services Fullservice restaurants High-Growth Industries Computer systems design and related services Management consulting services Local government Offices of real estate agents and brokers Federal government, civilian, except postal service Concentrated Industries These industries have an above-average share of total regional employment (compared to the U.S.): Professional organizations Computer systems design and related services Management training Office equipment rental and leasing Business associations Competitive Industries These industries are outperforming national trends: Management consulting services Computer systems design and related services Federal government, civilian, except postal service Accounting and bookkeeping services All other professional and technical services Critical Occupations in High- Growth Industries Computer systems design and related services: Computer software engineers, applications Computer systems analysts Computer software engineers, systems software Network systems and data communications analysts Network and computer systems administrators Management consulting services: Management analysts Market research analysts Customer service representatives Office clerks, general Executive secretaries and administrative assistants Local government: Elementary school teachers, except special education Police and sheriff's patrol officers Gaming managers Postsecondary teachers Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education Offices of real estate agents and brokers: Real estate sales agents Real estate brokers Property, real estate, and community association managers Appraisers and assessors of real estate Office clerks, general Federal government, civilian, except postal service: Business operation specialists, all other Management analysts Managers, all other Lawyers Registered nurses Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 10

Regional Industries: Detailed Data Industry Sectors, Region and State, 2009 2014 The following table summarizes the region s economy in comparison to the state s. Broad industry sectors are sorted by total 2009 jobs. REGION STATE NAICS % State % State Code Description 2009 Jobs 2014 Jobs Change Change EPW State 2009 State 2014 Change EPW 54 Professional and technical 315,647 382,541 66,894 21% $102,347 511,151 609,423 19% $85,810 services 90 Government 237,869 253,564 15,695 7% $97,332 855,485 905,791 6% $72,574 44-45 Retail trade 129,321 137,740 8,419 7% $32,832 490,412 520,500 6% $26,794 62 Health car e and social 99,654 117,812 18,158 18% $51,687 420,469 495,525 18% $44,482 assistance 72 Accommodation and food 91,054 98,461 7,407 8% $23,353 316,131 341,163 8% $18,374 services 56 Administrative and waste 87,997 104,534 16,537 19% $43,042 256,972 304,726 19% $30,876 services 23 Construction 87,872 99,354 11,482 13% $57,485 303,783 343,936 13% $45,009 81 Other services, excep t 80,918 87,806 6,888 9% $41,049 248,849 266,584 7% $27,674 public administration 53 Real estate and rental and 71,677 90,316 18,639 26% $35,822 218,757 274,077 25% $26,694 leasing 52 Finance and insurance 51,020 58,492 7,472 15% $123,839 173,784 196,344 13% $83,711 51 Information 50,283 53,394 3,111 6% $118,206 96,517 103,021 7% $87,100 48-49 Transportatio n and 47,938 50,324 2,386 5% $52,483 154,453 164,810 7% $50,808 warehousing 61 Educational services 33,405 40,808 7,403 22% $43,951 93,769 111,598 19% $34,429 42 Wholesale trade 32,486 33,634 1,148 4% $114,498 131,683 137,853 5% $72,087 71 Arts, entertainment, and 26,794 32,117 5,323 20% $45,894 86,245 102,094 18% $24,601 recreation 55 Management of 25,593 28,928 3,335 13% $142,864 76,681 85,965 12% $112,360 companies and enterprises 31-33 Manufacturing 23,744 24,260 516 2% $100,198 261,586 253,355-3% $67,083 22 Utilities 2,631 2,600-31 -1% $243,374 11,902 11,807-1% $207,113 11 Agriculture, forestry, 2,419 2,331-88 -4% $20,229 65,309 63,292-3% $19,859 fishing and hunting 21 Mining 781 940 159 20% $103,867 12,981 13,860 7% $73,089 1,499,102 1,699,959 200,857 13% $73,184 4,786,919 5,305,720 11% $53,156 EPW stands for earnings per worker, which is the total wage, salary, bonuses, and other compensation paid in the industry divided by the number of workers. Note that for regions including areas in multiple states, the State values are the sum or average of the values for all states involved. Industry sectors and specific industries in the following sections are listed by NAICS code. For more information, see http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 11

Regional Industries Providing the Most Jobs, 2009 This section shows industries at a much greater level of detail than the sectors on the previous page. NAIC S Code % Description 2009 Jobs 2014 Jobs Change Change 2009 EPW 54151 Computer systems design and related services 118,324 145,811 27,487 23% $113,518 93000 Local government 91,055 98,625 7,570 8% $64,988 91100 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 90,448 96,929 6,481 7% $131,673 54161 Management consulting services 64,630 83,697 19,067 30% $109,113 72211 Full-service restaurants 38,249 40,855 2,606 7% $22,108 91200 Federal government, military 31,396 30,747-649 -2% $122,400 54133 Engineering services 30,943 35,553 4,610 15% $113,045 72221 Limited-service eating places 29,550 31,895 2,345 8% $18,363 55111 Management of companies and enterprises 25,593 28,928 3,335 13% $142,864 92000 State government 24,970 27,263 2,293 9% $59,365 53121 Offices of real estate agents and brokers 24,440 31,729 7,289 30% $25,922 56172 Janitorial services 22,459 26,117 3,658 16% $18,644 62211 General medical and surgical hospitals 17,905 20,082 2,177 12% $59,033 54121 Accounting and bookkeeping services 17,550 21,370 3,820 22% $83,192 44511 Supermarkets and other grocery stores 16,995 17,326 331 2% $34,698 54171 Physical, engineering and biological research 16,721 18,127 1,406 8% $117,803 62111 Offices of physicians 16,488 18,692 2,204 13% $87,795 54199 All other professional and technical services 16,434 18,519 2,085 13% $61,482 45211 Department stores 14,840 15,721 881 6% $26,395 72111 Hotels and motels, except casino hotels 14,582 15,620 1,038 7% $33,682 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 12

Highest Growth Regional Industries, 2009 2014 These industries are projected to add the most total jobs. NAIC S Code % Description 2009 Jobs 2014 Jobs Change Change 2009 EPW 54151 Computer systems design and related services 118,324 145,811 27,487 23% $113,518 54161 Management consulting services 64,630 83,697 19,067 30% $109,113 93000 Local government 91,055 98,625 7,570 8% $64,988 53121 Offices of real estate agents and brokers 24,440 31,729 7,289 30% $25,922 91100 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 90,448 96,929 6,481 7% $131,673 53139 Other activities related to real estate 13,807 19,106 5,299 38% $17,243 54133 Engineering services 30,943 35,553 4,610 15% $113,045 54121 Accounting and bookkeeping services 17,550 21,370 3,820 22% $83,192 56172 Janitorial services 22,459 26,117 3,658 16% $18,644 55111 Management of companies and enterprises 25,593 28,928 3,335 13% $142,864 54169 Other technical consulting services 4,822 7,530 2,708 56% $106,664 61131 Colleges, universities, and professional schools 9,376 12,003 2,627 28% $35,844 72211 Full-service restaurants 38,249 40,855 2,606 7% $22,108 56161 Security and armored car services 10,985 13,533 2,548 23% $51,301 51821 Data processing and related services 7,905 10,326 2,421 31% $100,634 62331 Community care facilities for the elderly 5,606 8,006 2,400 43% $33,546 53111 Lessors of residential buildings 11,752 14,114 2,362 20% $40,866 72221 Limited-service eating places 29,550 31,895 2,345 8% $18,363 92000 State government 24,970 27,263 2,293 9% $59,365 62111 Offices of physicians 16,488 18,692 2,204 13% $87,795 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 13

Most Concentrated Regional Industries, 2009 2014 Location quotients (LQs) are a way of measuring an industry s regional concentration. A region with an average presence (or concentration) of a certain industry, compared to the national economy, will have an LQ of 1.0 for that industry. High-LQ industries are generally ones that are important to the region s economic base that is, they bring money into the region rather than circulating what is already there. As such, they are important targets for retention, expansion, and workforce development efforts. Note: circle size indicates number of jobs in the industry. NAIC S Code 2009 2009-2014 % Description 2009 Jobs 2014 Jobs LQ Change in LQ 2009 EPW 81392 Professional organizations 6,974 8,241 8.66 0% $66,572 54151 Computer systems design and related services 118,324 145,811 7.01 0% $113,518 61143 Management training 3,759 5,190 6.70 14% $113,467 53242 Office equipment rental and leasing 899 733 6.57-14% $146,559 81391 Business associations 7,645 8,184 5.62-17% $88,675 51811 ISPs and web search portals 6,334 4,874 5.45-20% $204,873 54161 Management consulting services 64,630 83,697 5.19 20% $109,113 91100 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 90,448 96,929 4.95 0% $131,673 71119 Other performing arts companies 413 612 4.69 0% $85,176 54172 Social science and humanities research 2,349 2,377 4.09 0% $101,468 81394 Political organizations 483 652 4.04 0% $60,220 56121 Facilities support services 5,934 7,968 3.70 0% $72,335 61171 Educational support services 4,098 5,523 3.52-25% $50,864 54133 Engineering services 30,943 35,553 3.51 0% $113,045 61163 Language schools 671 822 3.41 33% $20,062 54193 Translation and interpretation services 1,841 2,238 3.39 0% $48,962 51741 Satellite telecommunications 445 696 3.39 67% $169,165 48811 Airport operations 2,067 2,554 3.36 33% $28,787 48531 Taxi service 2,611 2,187 3.34 0% $11,624 61142 Computer training 648 495 3.33 0% $55,123 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 14

Most Competitive Regional Industries, 2009 2014 The regional competitiveness of an industry can be quantified using the standard shift share method. This method generates a competitiveness effect for the industry, which is basically regional job growth in the industry that exceeded national trends. These national trends include the percent growth of the U.S. economy and the percent growth of the given industry at the national level. The higher the competitiveness effect, the more the regional industry is outperforming national averages. Industries with a high competitiveness effect can give clues about the region s comparative advantages, and are prime targets for regional workforce initiatives. INDUSTRIES WITH HIGHEST COMPETITIVE EFFECT NAIC S Code Job Ind. Mix Natl. Expected Competitive Description Change Effect Effect Change Effect 54161 Management consulting services 19,068 3,251 5,733 8,984 10,084 54151 Computer systems design and related services 27,487 8,549 10,496 19,045 8,442 91100 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 6,481-7,538 8,023 485 5,996 54121 Accounting and bookkeeping services 3,820-94 1,557 1,463 2,357 54199 All other professional and technical services 2,085-1,148 1,458 309 1,775 61131 Colleges, universities, and professional schools 2,627 356 832 1,187 1,440 54133 Engineering services 4,610 491 2,745 3,236 1,374 55111 Management of companies and enterprises 3,335-302 2,270 1,968 1,367 51821 Data processing and related services 2,421 406 701 1,107 1,314 62412 Services for the elderly and disabled 1,971 453 276 728 1,242 51711 Wired telecommunications carriers 194-2,207 1,220-988 1,182 62331 Community care facilities for the elderly 2,400 764 497 1,261 1,139 81299 All other personal services -1,074-2,697 485-2,213 1,139 56161 Security and armored car services 2,548 450 974 1,424 1,124 52229 Other nondepository credit intermediation 1,620-344 855 511 1,109 45211 Department stores 881-1,469 1,316-152 1,033 54169 Other technical consulting services 2,708 1,260 428 1,687 1,021 93000 Local government 7,570-1,476 8,077 6,601 969 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 15

Industries With Highest Competitive Effect (Cont.) NAIC S Job Ind. Mix Natl. Expected Competitive Code Description Change Effect Effect Change Effect 92000 State government 2,293-832 2,215 1,383 911 81211 Hair, nail, and skin care services 53-1,667 838-829 882 NOTE ON SHIFT SHARE TERMINOLOGY In shift share analysis, expected job growth is based on the total regional industry jobs at the beginning of the timeframe, the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the national economy during the timeframe ( national growth effect ), and the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the same industry at the national level during the timeframe ( industry mix effect ). The difference between this expected job change and actual job change is called the regional competitiveness effect. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 16

Critical Occupations in High-Growth Industries The following tables show the highest-growth occupations within each of the highest-growth regional industries from 2009 to 2014. They provide a business-oriented view of the most in-demand jobs over that timeframe, and the demand-driven college will seek to align its offerings accordingly. Many jobs found here, especially with an education level of short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training (ST OJT or MT OJT), are likely to be good candidates for industry-oriented continuing education programs. Education level abbreviations: ST OJT: Short-term on-the-job training; MT OJT: Moderate-term on-the-job training; LT OJT: Long-term onthe-job training; Exp. in Field: Work experience in a related field; PS Award: Postsecondary award; Associate's: Associate's degree; Bachelor's: Bachelor's degree; DG + Exp.: Degree plus work experience; Master's: Master's degree; Doctoral: Doctoral degree; Prof. DG: First professional degree Critical Occupations: Computer systems design and related services Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Computer software engineers, applications 4,656 $45.50 Bachelor's Computer systems analysts 3,226 $44.28 Bachelor's Computer software engineers, systems software 3,002 $51.91 Bachelor's Network systems and data communications analysts 1,906 $38.58 Bachelor's Network and computer systems administrators 1,584 $38.26 Bachelor's Computer specialists, all other 1,428 $47.75 Associate's Computer and information systems managers 887 $62.79 DG + Exp. Computer support specialists 832 $25.85 Associate's Management analysts 807 $37.53 DG + Exp. Computer programmers 670 $38.32 Bachelor's Critical Occupations: Management consulting services Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Management analysts 4,442 $37.53 DG + Exp. Market research analysts 705 $33.74 Bachelor's Customer service representatives 625 $17.36 MT OJT Office clerks, general 608 $15.69 ST OJT Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 602 $23.76 MT OJT Business operation specialists, all other 581 $37.60 Bachelor's Computer systems analysts 542 $44.28 Bachelor's Sales representatives, services, all other 483 $27.72 MT OJT Computer software engineers, applications 471 $45.50 Bachelor's Accountants and auditors 465 $30.46 Bachelor's Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 17

Critical Occupations: Local government Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Elementary school teachers, except special education 883 $35.18 Bachelor's Police and sheriff's patrol officers 437 $27.04 LT OJT Gaming managers 414 $53.82 Exp. in Field Postsecondary teachers 346 $37.51 N/A Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 324 $35.95 Bachelor's Teacher assistants 316 $15.24 ST OJT Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 307 $34.68 Bachelor's Office clerks, general 204 $15.69 ST OJT Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school 199 $39.51 Bachelor's Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers 136 $30.62 DG + Exp. Critical Occupations: Offices of real estate agents and brokers Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Real estate sales agents 2,300 $10.13 PS Award Real estate brokers 2,216 $9.10 Exp. in Field Property, real estate, and community association managers 1,244 $11.00 Bachelor's Appraisers and assessors of real estate 449 $11.67 PS Award Office clerks, general 120 $15.69 ST OJT Chief executives 109 $50.99 DG + Exp. Building cleaning workers, all other 97 $8.23 ST OJT Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 65 $18.64 MT OJT Maintenance and repair workers, general 59 $19.37 MT OJT Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 44 $23.76 MT OJT Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 18

Critical Occupations: Federal government, civilian, except postal service Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Business operation specialists, all other 1,021 $37.60 Bachelor's Management analysts 300 $37.53 DG + Exp. Managers, all other 255 $33.22 Exp. in Field Lawyers 233 $48.73 Prof. DG Registered nurses 223 $32.80 Associate's Detectives and criminal investigators 218 $41.17 Exp. in Field Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists, all other 164 $37.53 Bachelor's Legal support workers, all other 149 $22.84 Bachelor's Computer software engineers, applications 145 $45.50 Bachelor's Network systems and data communications analysts 130 $38.58 Bachelor's Critical Occupations: Other activities related to real estate Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Real estate sales agents 1,676 $10.13 PS Award Real estate brokers 1,669 $9.10 Exp. in Field Property, real estate, and community association managers 959 $11.00 Bachelor's Appraisers and assessors of real estate 351 $11.67 PS Award Chief executives 84 $50.99 DG + Exp. Building cleaning workers, all other 75 $8.23 ST OJT Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 42 $18.64 MT OJT Maintenance and repair workers, general 41 $19.37 MT OJT Accountants and auditors 27 $30.46 Bachelor's Office clerks, general 26 $15.69 ST OJT Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 19

Critical Occupations: Engineering services Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Civil engineers 393 $38.35 Bachelor's Architects, except landscape and naval 293 $36.52 Bachelor's Electrical engineers 204 $47.63 Bachelor's Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 190 $23.76 MT OJT Mechanical engineers 188 $49.36 Bachelor's Office clerks, general 181 $15.69 ST OJT Engineering managers 173 $62.66 DG + Exp. Construction and building inspectors 144 $27.60 Exp. in Field Surveyors 127 $24.84 Bachelor's Computer software engineers, systems software 127 $51.91 Bachelor's Critical Occupations: Accounting and bookkeeping services Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Accountants and auditors 1,729 $30.46 Bachelor's Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 373 $18.64 MT OJT Office clerks, general 249 $15.69 ST OJT Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 110 $23.76 MT OJT Tax preparers 103 $15.18 MT OJT Financial analysts 93 $32.43 Bachelor's Billing and posting clerks and machine operators 83 $18.86 MT OJT Financial managers 83 $51.59 DG + Exp. Management analysts 81 $37.53 DG + Exp. Customer service representatives 79 $17.36 MT OJT Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 20

Critical Occupations: Janitorial services Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 1,398 $10.20 ST OJT Building cleaning workers, all other 770 $8.23 ST OJT First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers 509 $13.19 Exp. in Field Maids and housekeeping cleaners 472 $9.35 ST OJT Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 89 $8.37 MT OJT Pest control workers 65 $13.83 MT OJT Chief executives 29 $50.99 DG + Exp. Sales representatives, services, all other 28 $27.72 MT OJT Office clerks, general 28 $15.69 ST OJT Maintenance and repair workers, general 27 $19.37 MT OJT Critical Occupations: Management of companies and enterprises Job Growth Median Hourly Wage Average Occupation (In Industry) (All Industries) Education Accountants and auditors 197 $30.46 Bachelor's Computer systems analysts 144 $44.28 Bachelor's Customer service representatives 144 $17.36 MT OJT Business operation specialists, all other 125 $37.60 Bachelor's Network systems and data communications analysts 117 $38.58 Bachelor's Financial analysts 116 $32.43 Bachelor's Office clerks, general 102 $15.69 ST OJT Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 93 $23.76 MT OJT Management analysts 93 $37.53 DG + Exp. Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 87 $18.64 MT OJT Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 21

Regional Occupation Summary Employment outlooks organized by occupation provide a more workforce-oriented (rather than industry- oriented) perspective. These are jobs that are in demand across all industries in the region. All tables except those showing major occupation groups have been filtered to include only occupations with an average education level between Moderate-term on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. These jobs can be well-served through the development of for-credit certificate, associate s, or transfer programs. Occupation Groups Providing the Most Jobs The major occupation groups accounting for the most total regional jobs in 2009 are: Office and administrative support occupations Sales and related occupations Business and financial operations occupations Computer and mathematical science occupations Management occupations Specific Occupations Providing the Most Jobs The largest specific occupations are: Real estate sales agents Managers, all other Real estate brokers First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers High-Growth Occupations The occupations with the most total new jobs from 2009 to 2014 are: Real estate sales agents Real estate brokers Managers, all other Computer specialists, all other Registered nurses Occupations with Most Total Openings The occupations with the most estimated openings (new jobs plus replacement jobs) are: Real estate sales agents Real estate brokers Managers, all other Computer specialists, all other Computer support specialists Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 22

Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Major Occupation Groups, Region and State, 2009 2014 The following table summarizes regional occupations by major group, sorted by total 2009 jobs. SOC Code REGION STATE State 2009 2014 % Repl. Median Median Description Jobs Jobs Change Change Jobs Earnings State 2009 State 2014 Earnings 43 Office and administrative 203,336 226,006 22,670 11% 23,166 $17.79 646,467 705,997 $14.61 support occupations 41 Sales and related occupations 181,927 206,726 24,799 14% 24,565 $14.94 615,697 692,318 $12.14 13 Business and financial 129,730 153,444 23,714 18% 10,630 $32.85 279,584 324,177 $26.95 operations occupations 15 Computer and mathematical 125,359 152,799 27,440 22% 13,551 $42.82 192,588 231,285 $38.27 science occupations 11 Management occupations 120,178 138,288 18,110 15% 11,777 $39.11 328,409 370,365 $27.61 35 Food preparation and serving 84,144 91,534 7,390 9% 14,642 $9.77 306,892 332,506 $8.92 related occupations 25 Education, training, and library 74,628 84,144 9,516 13% 7,330 $28.07 263,261 293,903 $25.52 occupations 47 Construction and extraction 67,833 76,746 8,913 13% 5,905 $19.89 253,978 285,397 $16.41 occupations 53 Transportation and material 57,791 62,072 4,281 7% 6,613 $16.54 252,058 266,163 $14.11 moving occupations 37 Building and grounds cleaning 56,108 64,343 8,235 15% 4,877 $10.59 191,723 218,576 $9.28 and maintenance occupations 27 Arts, design, entertainment, 55,939 64,073 8,134 15% 6,377 $20.63 127,860 145,634 $15.70 sports, and media occupations 39 Personal ca re and service 47,578 50,677 3,099 7% 5,320 $10.93 149,768 162,985 $9.26 occupations 49 Installation, maintenance, and 45,822 50,797 4,975 11% 3,681 $21.21 168,450 182,808 $17.96 repair occupations 29 Healthcare practitioners and 41,127 46,978 5,851 14% 3,889 $34.22 187,649 213,151 $31.35 technical occupations 17 Architecture and engineering 35,716 40,473 4,757 13% 4,034 $40.01 91,522 101,724 $33.29 occupations 55 Military Occupations 31,396 30,747-649 -2% 3,662 $26.61 162,436 159,077 $20.21 33 Protective service occupations 29,724 34,461 4,737 16% 3,777 $21.12 94,024 106,039 $17.91 51 Production occupations 27,925 29,603 1,678 6% 3,739 $16.87 209,147 208,494 $14.24 19 Life, physical, and social science 25,299 29,178 3,879 15% 2,555 $37.03 51,173 57,970 $29.62 occupations 23 Legal occupations 21,867 24,392 2,525 12% 1,946 $40.05 40,916 45,824 $37.65 31 Healthcare support occupations 19,290 23,253 3,963 21% 1,128 $13.53 89,366 105,788 $11.80 21 Community and social services 15,588 18,399 2,811 18% 1,366 $18.40 67,365 79,103 $16.43 occupations 45 Farming, fishing, and forestry 798 826 28 4% 105 $15.03 16,584 16,437 $11.68 occupations 1,499,102 1,699,959 200,857 13% 164,635 $24.19 4,786,919 5,305,720 $18.50 Note: For regions including areas in multiple states, state values are the sum or average of all states involved. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 23

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Jobs, 2009 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderate-term on- the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC 2009 2014 % Repl. Median Education Code Description Jobs Jobs Change Change Jobs Earnings Level 41-9022 Real estate sales agents 19,070 24,648 5,578 29% 1,524 $10.13 PS Award 11-9199 Managers, all other 19,041 21,553 2,512 13% 1,894 $33.22 Exp. in Field 41-9021 Real estate brokers 16,844 22,195 5,351 32% 1,346 $9.10 Exp. in Field 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 14,919 16,174 1,255 8% 1,565 $16.92 Exp. in Field 43-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers 13,148 14,586 1,438 11% 1,357 $25.94 Exp. in Field 15-1099 Computer specialists, all other 11,972 13,977 2,005 17% 1,588 $47.75 Associate's 29-1111 Registered nurses 11,349 13,140 1,791 16% 937 $32.80 Associate's 15-1041 Computer support specialists 10,609 11,990 1,381 13% 1,638 $25.85 Associate's 47-2031 Carpenters 10,463 12,149 1,686 16% 708 $19.86 LT OJT 27-4021 Photographers 10,459 11,666 1,207 12% 1,152 $18.63 LT OJT 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 8,201 9,414 1,213 15% 573 $27.20 Exp. in Field 11-9012 Farmers and ranchers 7,388 7,655 267 4% 644 $22.45 LT OJT 35-2014 Cooks, restaurant 7,311 7,854 543 7% 990 $11.32 LT OJT 35-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 6,400 6,982 582 9% 241 $16.28 Exp. in Field 47-2111 Electricians 6,346 7,309 963 15% 817 $23.96 LT OJT 39-5012 Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists 6,082 6,173 91 1% 363 $11.83 PS Award 41-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of nonretail sales workers 6,029 6,848 819 14% 435 $24.13 Exp. in Field 49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 6,004 6,900 896 15% 602 $19.39 PS Award 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 5,603 6,172 569 10% 749 $27.04 LT OJT 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 5,270 6,323 1,053 20% 236 $11.83 PS Award Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 24

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Growth, 2009 2014 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderate-term on- the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC 2009 2014 % Repl. Median Education Code Description Jobs Jobs Change Change Jobs Earnings Level 41-9022 Real estate sales agents 19,070 24,648 5,578 29% 1,524 $10.13 PS Award 41-9021 Real estate brokers 16,844 22,195 5,351 32% 1,346 $9.10 Exp. in Field 11-9199 Managers, all other 19,041 21,553 2,512 13% 1,894 $33.22 Exp. in Field 15-1099 Computer specialists, all other 11,972 13,977 2,005 17% 1,588 $47.75 Associate's 29-1111 Registered nurses 11,349 13,140 1,791 16% 937 $32.80 Associate's 47-2031 Carpenters 10,463 12,149 1,686 16% 708 $19.86 LT OJT 43-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers 13,148 14,586 1,438 11% 1,357 $25.94 Exp. in Field 15-1041 Computer support specialists 10,609 11,990 1,381 13% 1,638 $25.85 Associate's 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 14,919 16,174 1,255 8% 1,565 $16.92 Exp. in Field 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 8,201 9,414 1,213 15% 573 $27.20 Exp. in Field 27-4021 Photographers 10,459 11,666 1,207 12% 1,152 $18.63 LT OJT 13-2021 Appraisers and assessors of real estate 3,703 4,844 1,141 31% 371 $11.67 PS Award 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 5,270 6,323 1,053 20% 236 $11.83 PS Award 47-2111 Electricians 6,346 7,309 963 15% 817 $23.96 LT OJT 49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 6,004 6,900 896 15% 602 $19.39 PS Award 41-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of nonretail sales workers 6,029 6,848 819 14% 435 $24.13 Exp. in Field 37-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers 4,035 4,765 730 18% 297 $13.19 Exp. in Field 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 5,223 5,945 722 14% 431 $10.73 PS Award 25-3021 Self-enrichment education teachers 3,117 3,782 665 21% 167 $14.34 Exp. in Field 39-9031 Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors 3,225 3,839 614 19% 302 $15.23 PS Award Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 25

Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs, 2009 2014 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderate-term on- the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC New + Median Education Code Description 2009 Jobs 2014 Jobs Repl. Jobs Earnings Level 41-9022 Real estate sales agents 19,070 24,648 7,102 $10.13 PS Award 41-9021 Real estate brokers 16,844 22,195 6,697 $9.10 Exp. in Field 11-9199 Managers, all other 19,041 21,553 4,406 $33.22 Exp. in Field 15-1099 Computer specialists, all other 11,972 13,977 3,593 $47.75 Associate's 15-1041 Computer support specialists 10,609 11,990 3,019 $25.85 Associate's 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 14,919 16,174 2,820 $16.92 Exp. in Field 43-1011 First-line supervisors/manager s of office and administrative support workers 13,148 14,586 2,795 $25.94 Exp. in Field 29-1111 Registered nurses 11,349 13,140 2,728 $32.80 Associate's 47-2031 Carpenters 10,463 12,149 2,394 $19.86 LT OJT 27-4021 Photographers 10,459 11,666 2,359 $18.63 LT OJT 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 8,201 9,414 1,786 $27.20 Exp. in Field 47-2111 Electricians 6,346 7,309 1,780 $23.96 LT OJT 35-2014 Cooks, restaurant 7,311 7,854 1,533 $11.32 LT OJT 13-2021 Appraisers and assessors of real estate 3,703 4,844 1,512 $11.67 PS Award 49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 6,004 6,900 1,498 $19.39 PS Award 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 5,603 6,172 1,318 $27.04 LT OJT 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 5,270 6,323 1,289 $11.83 PS Award 41-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers 6,029 6,848 1,254 $24.13 Exp. in Field 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 5,223 5,945 1,153 $10.73 PS Award 37-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers 4,035 4,765 1,027 $13.19 Exp. in Field Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 26

Occupation Demand & Program Comparison This section compares regional occupations with the most annual openings to the college's completers from the Department of Education's IPEDS database, with the goal of indicating where the college might look to increase its capacity. The occupations are taken directly from the "Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs" table on the previous page. "Related programs" associated with occupations are identified using a crosswalk developed by the U.S. Department of Education with some customizations by EMSI. College enrollment numbers by CIP code are provided by Northern Virginia Community College. Summary: High-Demand Occupations and Related Enrollment 2009-2014 Median 2008 Completers, 2008 Completers, All Avg. Annual Hourly All Related Programs Related Programs Description Openings Earnings (Northern Virginia (Region) Community College) Real estate sales agents 1,420 $10.13 1 1 Real estate brokers 1,339 $9.10 1 1 Managers, all other 881 $33.22 673 1700 Computer specialists, all other 719 $47.75 113 391 Computer support specialists 604 $25.85 0 0 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 564 $16.92 0 12 First-line supervisors/manager s of office and administrative support workers 559 $25.94 0 0 Registered nurses 546 $32.80 182 603 Carpenters 479 $19.86 0 0 Photographers 472 $18.63 52 228 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 357 $27.20 0 24 Electricians 356 $23.96 0 0 Cooks, restaurant 307 $11.32 5 110 Appraisers and assessors of real estate 302 $11.67 1 1 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 300 $19.39 37 37 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 264 $27.04 0 160 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 258 $11.83 0 0 First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers 251 $24.13 0 9 Preschool teachers, except special education 231 $10.73 0 26 First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers 205 $13.19 664 1515 Food service managers 202 $13.72 38 51 Note that many occupations have multiple related programs and vice versa, so students enrolled in a program may be included in more than one row in the table above. "Average annual openings" is total new and replacement jobs divided by the number of years in the given timeframe. Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 27

Detail: High-Demand Occupations and Related Program Enrollment 2009-2014 Median 2008 Avg. Annual Hourly Completers Occupation Openings Earnings Related Programs at College Real estate sales agents 1420 $10.13 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 1 Real Estate 1 Real estate brokers 1339 $9.10 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 1 Real Estate 1 Managers, all other 881 $33.22 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 673 Arts Management Tourism and Travel Services Management 6 Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies Non-Profit/Public/Organizational Management Franchising and Franchise Operations Small Business Administration/Management Hospitality Administration/Management, Other Theatre/Theatre Arts Management Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations, Other Business Administration, Management and 3 Operations, Other Public Administration 1 Business/Commerce, General Business Administration, Management and 41 Operations, Other Public Administration and Social Service Professions, Other Business Administration and Management, 620 General Tourism and Travel Services Management 2 Computer specialists, all other 719 $47.75 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 113 Information Science/Studies Bioinformatics Computer Science 44 Biomathematics and Bioinformatics, Other Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, Other Management Information Systems and Services, Other Computer and Information Sciences, General 69 Computer and Information Sciences, Other Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician Computer support specialists 604 $25.85 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 0 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Agricultural Business Technology Medical Office Computer Specialist/Assistant Accounting and Computer Science Computer Hardware Technology/Technician Computer Software Technology/Technician Data Processing and Data Processing Technology/Technician 564 $16.92 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 0 Retailing and Retail Operations Selling Skills and Sales Operations Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. 28