Regional Scan & Program Demand Report. Halifax Community College

Regional Scan & Program Demand Report Halifax Community College

Contents Executive Summary Regional Population Summary Population: Detailed Data Educational Attainment Projected High School Graduations Regional Industry Summary Regional Industries: Detailed Data Regional Occupation Summary Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Occupation Demand & Program Comparison About EMSI & the Data 3 4 5 7 10 11 12 23 24 28 33 PREPARED FOR: Halifax Community College REGION DEFINITION (COUNTIES): Halifax, Northampton Key Terms and Concepts Understanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report. Introduction This report is designed to integrate and analyze data from multiple sources with the goal of helping community and technical colleges with their strategic planning efforts. The overall goal is to help colleges align their program offerings with the demographic and economic characteristics of their service regions. To do this, the report provides an overview of the region s population, economy, and workforce, using state and national comparisons where appropriate to highlight unique regional characteristics. The industry and occupation employment numbers are based on numerous published sources from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and the National Center for Education Statistics. In addition, the report integrates industry/occupation data and projections created by the State of North Carolina, as well as neighboring states if a service region extends outside North Carolina. These data sources have been specially processed and harmonized to provide more complete and detailed data than any individual source used. For more information, see the final page of this report. Earnings: For industries, 2006 total annual earnings per worker is reported; these earnings include wages, salaries, profits, and benefits. Occupational earnings are reported as 2006 median hourly wage only. Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Jobs: Full-time and part-time positions held by proprietors and payroll employees in the public or private sector. May exceed actual worker count. Location Quotient (LQ): A measure of how "concentrated" a particular industry, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to a larger reference region, e.g., state or nation. Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Openings (Annual): The sum of new jobs and replacement jobs for a given occupation. Programs: Courses of postsecondary study defined by CIP (Classification of Instructional Programs) codes. Projections: Estimates of future job or population numbers based on (1) recent regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies Replacement Jobs: The estimated number of job openings in an occupation due to retirement, turnover, and other factors aside from job growth. Based on national percentages by occupation.

Executive Summary Regional Demographics From 2007 to 2013, the region can expect the total population to change by 1,419 persons, or 1.84%. The age groups with the highest growth are: Age Group in Persons 65 to 69 years 877 60 to 64 years 857 5 to 9 years 562 20 to 24 years 497 50 to 54 years 430 Similarly, the racial/ethnic groups with the highest expected population growth are: Group in Persons Black or African American 1,103 White, Non-Hispanic 79 American Indian or Alaska Native 69 Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries The following occupations show the most growth within the top ten high-growth industries. Detailed tables begin on p. 18. Home health aides Retail salespersons Personal and home care aides Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Cashiers, except gaming Elementary school teachers, except special education Correctional officers and jailers Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education High-Growth Occupations (Across All Industries) Detailed tables are on pages 4 6. Educational Attainment & H.S. Graduations Total regional attainment of a college degree (any level) is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. From 2007 to 2013, the total number of high school graduates in the region is expected to decline by 89. Detailed tables are on pages 7 through 10. These occupations show the most total growth across all industries. Detail table is on p. 26. First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Elementary school teachers, except special education Correctional officers and jailers Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Maintenance and repair workers, general Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education Preschool teachers, except special education Social and human service assistants High-Growth Industries The following industries show the highest total job growth from 2007 to 2013: Home health care services Local government Home centers State government Warehouse clubs and supercenters Limited-service eating places Other building material dealers Elementary and secondary schools Residential mental retardation facilities Electric power transmission and distribution College Programs For a quick comparison of the college s enrollment in programs related to the region s high-growth occupations, turn to page 28. 3

Regional Population Summary Knowing regional demographics can help colleges provide more targeted services. For example, regions with an aging population may require more classes for older residents to update their job skills. And, of course, a projected rise or decline in total population has serious implications for college enrollment, funding, and facilities planning. Note that nearly all regional numbers are compared to state or national averages this gives an idea of the unique situation facing the region. Regional Comparison TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE Total regional population change is below the state average. 2007 Total Region State 2013 Total % 77,333 78,752 1,419 2% 8,957,883 9,741,345 783,462 9% CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE 55+ The percentage of people age 55 and over in the region is expected to rise. It is above average compared to the state and above average compared to the nation. Concentrated Groups These tables show which regional demographic groups have an above-average presence in the region compared to the state and nation. This is calculated using location quotients or LQs (see p. 2). An LQ of 1.0 indicates a group accounts for an average percentage of the total population. AGE GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Age 2007 LQ (State) 85 years and over 1.52 80 to 84 years 1.42 Total in Region Total in State % of Region % of State % of Nation 75 to 79 years 1.40 70 to 74 years 1.28 2007 21,932 2,068,270 28% 23% 23% 65 to 69 years 1.20 2013 24,602 2,463,895 31% 25% 26% Above-average presence compared to nation: CHANGE BY RACE, 2007 2013 2007 Total Region State Nation 30,888 0% 7% 3% White Hispanic 550 10% 25% 14% Non-White Hispanic 272 8% 16% 10% 42,839 3% 8% 5% 2,042 3% 9% 6% 401 11% 19% 13% 20 70% 17% 8% 322 11% 17% 12% Race/Ethnicity White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races Age 2007 LQ (Nation) 75 to 79 years 1.33 85 years and over 1.29 70 to 74 years 1.29 80 to 84 years 1.28 65 to 69 years 1.21 RACE/ETHNICITY GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Group 2007 LQ (State) Black or African American 2.58 American Indian or Alaska Native 2.20 Above-average presence compared to nation: Group 2007 LQ (Nation) Black or African American 4.51 American Indian or Alaska Native 3.50 1. Note: for regions that include areas in multiple states, state data uses the sum or average of all states involved. 4

Population: Detailed Data Population by Age Details Age 2007 Population 2013 Population % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) Under 5 years 5,167 5,308 5 to 9 years 4,691 5,253 141 3% 0.97 0.97 562 12% 0.91 10 to 14 years 5,250 0.92 5,077-173 -3% 1.03 15 to 19 years 1.01 5,998 5,009-989 -16% 1.03 1.08 20 to 24 years 4,525 5,022 497 11% 0.87 0.84 25 to 29 years 4,203 4,506 303 7% 0.81 0.79 30 to 34 years 4,007 4,098 91 2% 0.77 0.81 35 to 39 years 4,594 4,065-529 -12% 0.81 0.85 40 to 44 years 5,286 4,487-799 -15% 0.92 0.94 45 to 49 years 6,052 5,268-784 -13% 1.04 1.03 50 to 54 years 5,628 6,058 430 8% 1.06 1.04 55 to 59 years 5,200 5,620 420 8% 1.10 1.11 60 to 64 years 4,345 5,202 857 20% 1.14 1.17 65 to 69 years 3,362 4,239 877 26% 1.20 1.21 70 to 74 years 2,836 3,087 251 9% 1.28 1.29 75 to 79 years 2,490 2,395-95 -4% 1.40 1.33 80 to 84 years 1,860 1,808-52 -3% 1.42 1.28 85 years and over 1,838 2,252 414 23% 1.52 1.29 77,333 78,752 1,419 2% Total Source: (9/2007) 5

Population by Race/Ethnicity Details Race/Ethnicity 2007 Population 2013 Population White, Non-Hispanic % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) 30,888 30,967 79 0% 0.59 0.60 White Hispanic 550 604 54 10% 0.11 0.05 Non-White Hispanic 272 293 21 8% 0.73 0.39 42,839 43,942 1,103 3% 2.58 4.51 2,042 2,111 69 3% 2.20 3.50 401 445 44 11% 0.28 0.12 20 34 14 70% 0.52 0.19 322 356 34 11% 0.40 0.26 Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races Source: (9/2007) 6

Educational Attainment In today s competitive knowledge economy, advanced education, training, and skills are more vital than ever. Studies also show that higher education levels are strongly tied to higher earnings, lower unemployment rates, and improved lifestyles. Regional educational attainment levels help colleges identify educational gaps in the region s workforce (especially in comparison to state and national levels). This helps state, college, and regional policymakers form a targeted plan to increase workforce education. Note that attainment is only tracked for persons age 25 and older. Educational Attainment Summary In the region, college degree attainment is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. % of Region % of State % of Nation Less Than High School Diploma 27.0% 15.8% 14.5% High School Diploma or Some College 54.8% 52.0% 50.7% College Degree 18.3% 32.3% 34.7% Educational Attainment Totals, Detail Educational Level Less Than 9th Grade 9th Grade to 12th Grade 2007 Total (age 25+) % of Region (age 25+) % of State (age 25+) % of Nation (age 25+) 5,033 9.7% 5.3% 5.5% 8,904 17.2% 10.5% 9.0% 18,849 36.5% 29.5% 28.7% Some College 9,464 18.3% 22.5% 22.0% Associate's Degree 2,934 5.7% 7.1% 6.4% Degree 4,806 9.3% 17.1% 18.0% Graduate Degree and Higher 1,711 3.3% 8.1% 10.3% 51,701 100% 100% 100% High School Diploma Source: (9/2007) 7

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity COMPARISON OF COLLEGE DEGREE ATTAINMENT TO STATE AND NATION Differences are expressed in percentage points. Positive numbers indicate higher attainment levels in the region compared to the state or nation; negative numbers indicate lower attainment levels in the region. Race/Ethnicity Difference in College Attainment (State) Difference in College Attainment (Nation) -10.0-11.7 White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic -1.3 0.6 Non-White Hispanic -4.5-6.3 Black or African American -9.4-12.7 American Indian or Alaska Native -12.9-17.8 Asian -20.4-25.2 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races -3.0-9.8-23.5-25.0 REGIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE/ETHNICITY, DETAIL Race/Ethnicity White, Non-Hispanic 2007 Persons (age 25+) Less Than High School HS Diploma or Some College College Degree 22,703 3,798 13,135 5,770 White Hispanic 280 156 64 59 Non-White Hispanic 154 51 88 15 26,899 9,330 14,154 3,416 1,254 487 699 69 294 87 98 110 Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races 17 4 10 3 100 24 66 10 51,701 13,937 28,313 9,451 Source: (9/2007) 8

Educational Attainment by Gender In the region, females have lower high school attainment rates and higher college degree attainment rates compared to males. 2007 Total (age 25+) Less Than High School High School Diploma College Degree Males 23,684 28.6% 55.6% 15.8% Females 28,017 25.6% 54.1% 20.4% Source: (9/2007) 9

Projected High School Graduations By estimating the total number and demographic makeup of future high school graduates, colleges can be prepared to market their programs effectively to the next generation of students. If the total pool of graduates is declining, for example, then colleges must be able to recruit a greater percentage of them in order to maintain enrollments. Snapshot of Graduations by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 Projected Graduations by Race/Ethnicity Race/Ethnicity 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % White, Non-Hispanic 234 233-1 White Hispanic 3 3 0 0% Non-White Hispanic 3 2-1 -33% 598 511-87 -15% 19 16-3 -16% Asian 3 2-1 -33% Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 1 0-1 -100% Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Two or more races 0% 8 11 3 38% 867 778-89 -10% Projected Graduations by Gender Gender 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % Males 411 377-34 -8% Females 455 401-54 -12% Source: (9/2007) 10

Regional Industry Summary Part of a college s mission is to support the workforce needs of vital regional industries. By using several different metrics for identifying such industries, this section of the report provides a map of the region s economy, thus helping colleges allocate workforce training resources. The listing of critical occupations within high-growth industries (right column) highlights high-growth occupations in these industries. Because these occupations are not filtered by education level, they may by served by non-credit continuing education, for-credit certificate or associate s track courses, or courses designed for transfer to four-year institutions. Industries with the Most Jobs Local government State government Home health care services Crop and animal production Limited-service eating places Home health care services: High-Growth Industries Home health care services Local government Home centers State government Warehouse clubs and supercenters Home health aides Personal and home care aides Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Local government: Concentrated Industries These industries have an above-average share of total regional employment (compared to the U.S.): Other farm product raw material merch. whls. Starch and vegetable oil manufacturing Farm product warehousing and storage All other food manufacturing Resin and synthetic rubber manufacturing Competitive Industries These industries are outperforming national trends: Home health care services Home centers Local government Other building material dealers Warehouse clubs and supercenters Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries Elementary school teachers, except special education Correctional officers and jailers Police and sheriff's patrol officers Teacher assistants Home centers: Retail salespersons Cashiers, except gaming First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Industrial truck and tractor operators Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand State government: Correctional officers and jailers Education administrators, postsecondary Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists Office clerks, general Warehouse clubs and supercenters: Retail salespersons First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Cashiers, except gaming Stock clerks and order fillers Customer service representatives 11

Regional Industries: Detailed Data Industry Sectors, Region and State, 2007 2013 The following table summarizes the region s economy in comparison to the state s. Broad industry sectors are sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION STATE NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % EPW State 2007 State 2013 State % State EPW 90 Government 6,797 7,533 736 44-45 Retail trade 5,089 5,830 741 11% $39,739 814,295 860,222 6% $50,086 15% $24,979 577,805 631,034 9% 62 Health care and social assistance 4,104 5,649 $27,432 1,545 38% $23,895 512,364 628,468 23% $40,919 31-33 Manufacturing 2,855 72 Accommodation and food services 2,288 2,835-20 -1% $46,392 571,852 556,220-3% $60,651 2,457 169 7% $12,607 357,639 392,026 10% $16,166 81 Other services, except public administration 2,209 2,430 221 10% $21,170 299,546 338,284 13% $21,530 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 1,752 1,477-275 -16% $24,143 98,485 88,826-10% $17,591 23 Construction 1,572 1,653 81 5% $29,853 383,703 401,625 5% $41,402 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 1,151 1,256 105 9% $36,524 173,261 187,672 8% $46,159 56 Administrative and waste services 1,067 1,316 249 23% $19,528 342,454 406,936 19% $24,537 42 Wholesale trade 998 1,162 164 16% $39,928 202,236 220,256 9% $60,924 54 Professional and technical services 819 967 148 18% $33,089 293,794 342,810 17% $55,059 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 759 810 51 7% $38,498 186,230 216,970 17% $40,575 52 Finance and insurance 584 565-19 -3% $47,115 203,026 218,027 7% $79,320 61 Educational services 440 586 146 33% $12,660 95,989 119,933 25% $30,220 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 220 244 24 11% $21,732 89,897 104,593 16% $29,790 51 Information 203 229 26 13% $61,616 89,185 107,752 21% $66,662 22 Utilities 180 269 89 49% $88,699 14,703 13,907-5% $92,555 55 Management of companies and enterprises 57 22-35 -61% $61,400 75,481 83,732 11% $91,516 21 Mining 12 17 5 42% $47,601 6,125 6,644 8% $62,580 33,154 37,306 4,152 13% $30,865 5,388,069 5,925,938 10% $42,944 Source: (9/2007) EPW stands for earnings per worker, which is the total wage, salary, bonuses, and other compensation paid in the industry divided by the number of workers. Note that for regions including areas in multiple states, the State values are the sum or average of the values for all states involved. Industry sectors and specific industries in the following sections are listed by NAICS code. For more information, see http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm. 12

Regional Industries Providing the Most Jobs, 2007 This section shows industries at a much greater level of detail than the sectors on the previous page. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW 93000 92000 Local government 4,806 5,341 535 11% $39,468 State government 1,755 1,968 213 12% $39,649 62161 Home health care services 1,387 2,344 957 69% $13,271 11A00 Crop and animal production 1,223 943-280 -23% $19,839 72221 Limited-service eating places 1,122 1,278 156 14% $11,928 44411 Home centers 1,081 1,546 465 43% $26,015 72211 Full-service restaurants 827 826-1 0% $12,101 62311 Nursing care facilities 650 731 81 12% $21,255 45291 Warehouse clubs and supercenters 632 795 163 26% $19,115 81411 Private households 503 421-82 -16% $7,717 44711 Gasoline stations with convenience stores 479 526 47 10% $21,910 62111 Offices of physicians 435 525 90 21% $65,851 44511 Supermarkets and other grocery stores 434 352-82 -19% $18,252 62441 Child day care services 399 482 83 21% $10,007 32111 Sawmills and wood preservation 357 277-80 -22% $43,314 61111 Elementary and secondary schools 352 474 122 35% $12,890 44419 Other building material dealers 310 461 151 49% $40,016 56172 Janitorial services 282 332 50 18% $15,579 33661 Ship and boat building 265 261-4 -2% $31,676 23891 Site preparation contractors 256 304 48 19% $27,375 Source: (9/2007) 13

Highest Growth Regional Industries, 2007 2013 These industries are projected to add the most total jobs. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW 62161 93000 Home health care services 1,387 2,344 957 69% $13,271 Local government 4,806 5,341 535 11% $39,468 44411 Home centers 1,081 1,546 465 43% $26,015 92000 State government 1,755 1,968 213 12% $39,649 45291 Warehouse clubs and supercenters 632 795 163 26% $19,115 72221 Limited-service eating places 1,122 1,278 156 14% $11,928 44419 Other building material dealers 310 461 151 49% $40,016 61111 Elementary and secondary schools 352 474 122 35% $12,890 62321 Residential mental retardation facilities 188 296 108 57% $18,983 22112 Electric power transmission and distribution 98 204 106 108% $104,989 32619 Other plastics product manufacturing 180 284 104 58% $53,914 81233 Linen and uniform supply 217 314 97 45% $34,012 62111 Offices of physicians 435 525 90 21% $65,851 62441 Child day care services 399 482 83 21% $10,007 62331 Community care facilities for the elderly 206 288 82 40% $14,889 42491 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers 254 336 82 32% $23,382 62311 Nursing care facilities 650 731 81 12% $21,255 56132 Temporary help services 148 227 79 53% $12,889 81311 Religious organizations 169 236 67 40% $24,577 33351 Metalworking machinery manufacturing 93 157 64 69% $37,848 Source: (9/2007) 14

Most Concentrated Regional Industries, 2007 2013 Location quotients (LQs) are a way of measuring an industry s regional concentration. A region with an average presence (or concentration) of a certain industry, compared to the national economy, will have an LQ of 1.0 for that industry. High-LQ industries are generally ones that are important to the region s economic base that is, they bring money into the region rather than circulating what is already there. As such, they are important targets for retention, expansion, and workforce development efforts. Note: circle size indicates number of jobs in the industry. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs 2007 LQ 2007-2013 % in LQ 2006 EPW 42459 31122 Other farm product raw material merch. whls. 169 158 Starch and vegetable oil manufacturing 105 51 91.03 3% $35,624 21.09-52% $37,289 49313 Farm product warehousing and storage 31199 All other food manufacturing 28 183 16 16.49-25% $25,665 87 15.18-53% 32521 Resin and synthetic rubber manufacturing $26,267 202 258 15.05 33% 32212 $49,192 Paper mills 243 240 14.61 13% $56,548 32111 Sawmills and wood preservation 357 277 14.58-20% $43,314 32599 All other chemical preparation manufacturing 225 175 13.53-21% $80,836 42491 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers 254 336 12.28 25% $23,382 11421 Hunting and trapping 39 47 11.95 8% $24,325 48521 Interurban and rural bus transportation 33661 Ship and boat building 31599 Accessories and other apparel manufacturing 81233 Linen and uniform supply 48841 32561 44411 Home centers 32721 Glass and glass product manufacturing 31323 Nonwoven fabric mills 11531 Support activities for forestry 43 47 10.57-9% $25,235 265 261 9.28 0% $31,676 40 30 8.81-22% $61,000 217 314 8.76 11% $34,012 Motor vehicle towing 86 107 8.74 11% $42,202 Soap and cleaning compound manufacturing 91 103 8.65 11% $45,023 1,081 1,546 8.46 25% $26,015 161 147 8.08-13% $37,852 22 45 7.44 57% $37,185 94 113 6.92 0% $39,919 Source: (9/2007) 15

Most Competitive Regional Industries, 2007 2013 The regional competitiveness of an industry can be quantified using the standard shift share method. This method generates a competitiveness effect for the industry, which is basically regional job growth in the industry that exceeded national trends. These national trends include the percent growth of the U.S. economy and the percent growth of the given industry at the national level. The higher the competitiveness effect, the more the regional industry is outperforming national averages. Industries with a high competitiveness effect can give clues about the region s comparative advantages, and are prime targets for regional workforce initiatives. INDUSTRIES WITH HIGHEST COMPETITIVE EFFECT NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect 62161 44411 Home health care services 957 327 108 435 522 Home centers 465 40 84 125 341 93000 Local government 535-46 376 329 205 44419 Other building material dealers 151-25 24-1 152 45291 Warehouse clubs and supercenters 164-20 49 29 135 32619 Other plastics product manufacturing 104-25 14-11 115 22112 Electric power transmission and distribution 106 6 8 13 93 92000 State government 213-15 137 122 90 72221 Limited-service eating places 156-15 88 72 83 42491 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers 82-17 20 2 80 33351 Metalworking machinery manufacturing 61111 Elementary and secondary schools 32521 64-18 7-11 75 122 23 27 51 71 Resin and synthetic rubber manufacturing 56-28 16-12 68 81233 Linen and uniform supply 98 19 17 36 62 62321 Residential mental retardation facilities 107 40 15 55 52 81311 Religious organizations 67 8 13 21 45 56132 Temporary help services 78 23 12 35 44 16

Industries With Highest Competitive Effect (Cont.) NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect 48423 Other specialized trucking, long-distance 41-3 5 2 40 42449 Other grocery product merchant wholesalers 43-4 9 5 37 32212 Paper mills -3-59 19-40 37 Source: (9/2007) NOTE ON SHIFT SHARE TERMINOLOGY In shift share analysis, expected job growth is based on the total regional industry jobs at the beginning of the timeframe, the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the national economy during the timeframe ( national growth effect ), and the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the same industry at the national level during the timeframe ( industry mix effect ). The difference between this expected job change and actual job change is called the regional competitiveness effect. 17

Critical Occupations in High-Growth Industries The following tables show the highest-growth occupations within each of the highest-growth regional industries from 2007 to 2013. They provide a business-oriented view of the most in-demand jobs over that timeframe, and the demand-driven college will seek to align its offerings accordingly. Many jobs found here, especially with an education level of short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training (ST OJT or ), are likely to be good candidates for industry-oriented continuing education programs. Education level abbreviations: : Short-term on-the-job training; : Moderate-term on-the-job training; LT OJT: Longterm on-the-job training; : Work experience in a related field; PS Award: Postsecondary award; Associate's: Associate's degree; : degree; DG + Exp.: Degree plus work experience; Master's: Master's degree; Doctoral: Doctoral degree; Prof. DG: First professional degree Critical Occupations: Home health care services Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Home health aides 545 $7.35 Personal and home care aides 206 $6.80 74 $22.09 Associate's Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 29 $16.28 PS Award Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 23 $8.07 PS Award Physical therapists 12 $26.84 Master's Medical and health services managers 7 $26.70 DG + Exp. Medical and public health social workers 5 $15.67 Occupational therapists $29.36 Master's Physical therapist assistants $19.25 Associate's Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Elementary school teachers, except special education 41 $17.49 Correctional officers and jailers 28 $12.54 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 27 $15.35 LT OJT 27 $22.09 Associate's Teacher assistants 26 $8.07 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 25 $15.88 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 19 $17.27 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 12 $10.72 PS Award Fire fighters 12 $13.90 LT OJT Teachers and instructors, all other 10 $8.13 Occupation Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Local government Occupation Source: (9/2007) 18

Critical Occupations: Home centers Occupation Retail salespersons Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 222 $8.76 Cashiers, except gaming 37 $6.68 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 37 $13.47 Industrial truck and tractor operators 24 $10.00 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 24 $8.79 Truck drivers, light or delivery services 15 $9.61 Stock clerks and order fillers 8 $8.54 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 7 $16.59 General and operations managers 7 $33.59 DG + Exp. Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 7 $15.94 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Correctional officers and jailers 23 $12.54 11 $22.09 Associate's Education administrators, postsecondary 8 $21.22 DG + Exp. Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists 8 $15.71 Office clerks, general 7 $10.03 Business operation specialists, all other 6 $19.86 Child, family, and school social workers 5 $15.20 Home health aides 5 $7.35 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $13.89 Maintenance and repair workers, general $14.59 Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: State government Occupation Source: (9/2007) 19

Critical Occupations: Warehouse clubs and supercenters Job Growth (In Industry) Occupation Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Retail salespersons 70 $8.76 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 26 $13.47 Cashiers, except gaming 23 $6.68 6 $8.54 Customer service representatives $11.25 Pharmacy technicians $9.20 Pharmacists $45.66 Prof. DG First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers $18.25 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners $7.68 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food $6.15 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 91 $6.15 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers Stock clerks and order fillers Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Limited-service eating places Occupation 20 $10.81 Food preparation workers 6 $6.88 Food service managers 6 $16.34 Cooks, fast food 5 $6.22 Driver/sales workers $9.54 Cashiers, except gaming $6.68 Waiters and waitresses $6.15 Cooks, short order $6.11 Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop $6.12 Source: (9/2007) 20

Critical Occupations: Other building material dealers Job Growth (In Industry) Occupation Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Retail salespersons 70 $8.76 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 15 $13.47 Cashiers, except gaming 12 $6.68 Industrial truck and tractor operators 8 $10.00 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 8 $8.79 Truck drivers, light or delivery services 5 $9.61 Stock clerks and order fillers $8.54 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products $16.59 General and operations managers $33.59 DG + Exp. Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer $15.94 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Elementary school teachers, except special education 16 $17.49 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 14 $15.88 Vocational education teachers, middle school 10 $16.16 DG + Exp. Teacher assistants 10 $8.07 Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Elementary and secondary schools Occupation Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 6 $17.27 Vocational education teachers, secondary school $18.39 DG + Exp. Education administrators, elementary and secondary school $25.58 DG + Exp. Building cleaning workers, all other $8.26 Teachers and instructors, all other $8.13 Self-enrichment education teachers $13.07 Source: (9/2007) 21

Critical Occupations: Residential mental retardation facilities Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Home health aides 69 $7.35 Personal and home care aides 15 $6.80 Occupation Social and human service assistants 6 $10.95 Rehabilitation counselors $14.90 Master's Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants $8.07 PS Award Social and community service managers $17.96 $22.09 Associate's Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses $16.28 PS Award Healthcare support workers, all other $10.84 Mental health and substance abuse social workers $16.73 Master's Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Electric power transmission and distribution Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 19 $18.18 LT OJT Electrical and electronics repairers, powerhouse, substation, and relay 7 $21.28 PS Award Customer service representatives 5 $11.25 Power plant operators 5 $21.49 LT OJT Nuclear engineers 5 $36.21 First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers $20.92 Maintenance and repair workers, general $14.59 Industrial machinery mechanics $14.70 LT OJT Control and valve installers and repairers, except mechanical door $16.52 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers $20.33 Occupation Electrical power-line installers and repairers Source: (9/2007) 22

Regional Occupation Summary Employment outlooks organized by occupation provide a more workforce-oriented (rather than industryoriented) perspective. These are jobs that are in demand across all industries in the region. All tables except those showing major occupation groups have been filtered to include only occupations with an average education level between Moderate-term on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. These jobs can be well-served through the development of for-credit certificate, associate s, or transfer programs. Occupation Groups Providing the Most Jobs The major occupation groups accounting for the most total regional jobs in 2007 are: Sales and related occupations Office and administrative support occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Management occupations Food preparation and serving related occupations Specific Occupations Providing the Most Jobs The largest specific occupations are: First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Correctional officers and jailers Farmers and ranchers Maintenance and repair workers, general High-Growth Occupations The occupations with the most total new jobs from 2007 to 2013 are: First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Elementary school teachers, except special education Correctional officers and jailers Occupations with Most Total Openings The occupations with the most estimated openings (new jobs plus replacement jobs) are: Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Correctional officers and jailers Elementary school teachers, except special education 23

Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Major Occupation Groups, Region and State, 2007 2013 The following table summarizes regional occupations by major group, sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION STATE SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs State 2007 State 2013 State Median Earnings 41 Sales and related occupations 4,404 5,002 598 14% 852 $10.88 673,532 743,016 $13.29 43 Office and administrative support occupations 3,767 3,921 154 4% 648 $11.64 708,523 754,171 $13.15 53 Transportation and material moving occupations 2,687 2,885 198 7% 498 $12.00 354,515 379,474 $12.39 11 Management occupations 2,374 2,497 123 5% 273 $22.87 388,345 423,146 $31.69 35 Food preparation and serving related occupations 2,178 2,349 171 8% 642 $6.96 372,191 411,280 $7.62 51 Production occupations 2,064 2,197 133 6% 311 $11.71 423,917 425,802 $12.87 31 Healthcare support occupations 1,913 2,735 822 43% 465 $8.18 152,997 196,015 $10.20 25 Education, training, and library occupations 1,888 2,206 318 17% 369 $13.66 240,249 272,624 $14.69 29 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 1,758 2,150 392 22% 401 $24.67 239,774 281,557 $31.27 39 Personal care and service occupations 1,513 1,828 315 21% 299 $7.13 190,335 223,289 $8.46 49 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,419 1,530 111 8% 262 $14.69 215,096 234,240 $16.71 47 Construction and extraction occupations 1,398 1,494 96 7% 216 $12.75 307,133 325,597 $14.01 37 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 1,340 1,448 108 8% 185 $7.70 228,086 259,209 $8.71 33 Protective service occupations 1,073 1,198 125 12% 241 $13.33 92,934 103,711 $14.08 21 Community and social services occupations 829 1,013 184 22% 186 $15.32 66,709 79,786 $16.21 13 Business and financial operations occupations 828 966 138 17% 125 $19.56 217,874 248,111 $22.94 27 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 433 504 71 16% 47 $12.53 112,181 127,996 $15.13 17 Architecture and engineering occupations 286 324 38 13% 51 $21.65 68,679 75,853 $26.61 19 Life, physical, and social science occupations 267 295 28 10% 47 $19.69 55,852 63,978 $23.75 15 Computer and mathematical science occupations 209 249 40 19% 44 $24.20 102,034 123,505 $30.36 45 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 209 192-17 -8% 38 $8.33 15,729 15,215 $9.92 55 Military Occupations 193 181-12 -6% 29 $14.58 131,464 123,061 $26.11 23 Legal occupations 124 141 17 14% 17 $27.51 29,915 35,299 $30.55 33,154 37,306 4,152 13% 6,245 $13.14 5,388,065 5,925,936 $16.18 % Repl. Median Jobs Earnings Source: (9/2007) Note: For regions including areas in multiple states, state values are the sum or average of all states involved. 24

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Jobs, 2007 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 738 827 89 12% 63 $13.47 29-1111 620 797 177 29% 166 $22.09 Associate's 33-3012 Correctional officers and jailers 530 581 51 10% 86 $12.54 11-9012 Farmers and ranchers 513 464-49 -10% 11 $6.15 LT OJT 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 430 469 39 9% 83 $14.59 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 419 501 82 20% 83 $8.07 PS Award 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 416 444 28 7% 64 $15.94 43-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 403 408 5 1% 53 $12.23 43-6014 Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 352 352 0 0% 41 $10.80 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 341 398 57 17% 72 $17.49 51-2092 Team assemblers 290 319 29 10% 53 $9.60 35-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 254 280 26 10% 51 $10.81 25-2022 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 254 293 39 15% 46 $15.88 43-4051 Customer service representatives 251 282 31 12% 51 $11.25 47-2031 Carpenters 243 262 19 8% 33 $11.33 LT OJT 43-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers 235 249 14 6% 39 $18.25 11-9199 Managers, all other 221 234 13 6% 22 $26.27 43-6011 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 219 238 19 9% 39 $13.89 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 213 243 30 14% 52 $15.35 LT OJT 29-2061 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 207 258 51 25% 45 $16.28 PS Award Source: (9/2007) 25

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Growth, 2007 2013 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings 29-1111 41-1011 Education Level 620 797 177 29% 166 $22.09 Associate's First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 738 827 89 12% 63 $13.47 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 419 501 82 20% 83 $8.07 PS Award 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 341 398 57 17% 72 $17.49 33-3012 Correctional officers and jailers 530 581 51 10% 86 $12.54 29-2061 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 207 258 51 25% 45 $16.28 PS Award 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 430 469 39 9% 83 $14.59 25-2022 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 254 293 39 15% 46 $15.88 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 130 167 37 28% 35 $7.42 PS Award 21-1093 Social and human service assistants 150 184 34 23% 43 $10.95 51-6011 Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 120 152 32 27% 23 $6.81 43-4051 Customer service representatives 251 282 31 12% 51 $11.25 21-2021 Directors, religious activities and education 81 112 31 38% 11 $19.14 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 213 243 30 14% 52 $15.35 LT OJT 51-2092 Team assemblers 290 319 29 10% 53 $9.60 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 416 444 28 7% 64 $15.94 13-2011 Accountants and auditors 157 184 27 17% 27 $20.78 35-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 254 280 26 10% 51 $10.81 25-2031 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 178 204 26 15% 42 $17.27 13-1199 Business operation specialists, all other 101 126 25 25% 22 $19.86 Source: (9/2007) 26

Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs, 2007 2013 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs New + Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level 29-1111 31-1012 620 797 343 $22.09 Associate's Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 419 501 165 $8.07 PS Award 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 738 827 152 $13.47 33-3012 Correctional officers and jailers 530 581 137 $12.54 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 341 398 129 $17.49 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 430 469 122 $14.59 29-2061 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 207 258 96 $16.28 PS Award 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 416 444 92 $15.94 25-2022 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 254 293 85 $15.88 51-2092 Team assemblers 290 319 82 $9.60 43-4051 Customer service representatives 251 282 82 $11.25 33-3051 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 213 243 82 $15.35 LT OJT 35-1012 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 254 280 77 $10.81 21-1093 Social and human service assistants 150 184 77 $10.95 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 130 167 72 $7.42 PS Award 25-2031 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 178 204 68 $17.27 41-4012 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 185 209 60 $16.59 43-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 403 408 58 $12.23 43-6011 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 219 238 58 $13.89 51-6011 Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 120 152 55 $6.81 Source: (9/2007) 27

Occupation Demand & Program Comparison This section compares regional occupations with the most annual openings to the college s current enrollment by program, with the goal of indicating where the college might look to increase its capacity. The occupations are taken directly from the "Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs" table on the previous page. Related programs associated with occupations are identified using a crosswalk developed by the U.S. Department of Education with some customizations by EMSI. College enrollment numbers by CIP code are provided by the North Carolina Community College System. Summary: High-Demand Occupations and Related Enrollment 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Annual Enrollment at College, All Related Programs 57 $22.09 80 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 28 $8.07 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 25 $13.47 Correctional officers and jailers 23 $12.54 Elementary school teachers, except special education 22 $17.49 Maintenance and repair workers, general 20 $14.59 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 16 $16.28 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $15.94 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 14 $15.88 Team assemblers 14 $9.60 Customer service representatives 14 $11.25 Police and sheriff's patrol officers 14 $15.35 31 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 13 $10.81 58 Social and human service assistants 13 $10.95 Preschool teachers, except special education 12 $7.42 57 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 11 $17.27 1 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 10 $16.59 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 10 $12.23 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 9 $13.89 Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 9 $6.81 Description 2 43 52 1 23 Source: (9/2007) Note that many occupations have multiple related programs and vice versa, so students enrolled in a program may be included in more than one row in the table above. Average annual openings is total new and replacement jobs divided by the number of years in the given timeframe. 28

Detail: High-Demand Occupations and Related Program Enrollment Occupation 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings 57 Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs $22.09 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Annual Enrollment at College 80 Health/Medical Preparatory Programs, Other Nursing Science (MS, PhD) Critical Care Nursing Pediatric Nurse/Nursing Occupational and Environmental Health Nursing Nursing/Registered Nurse (RN, ASN, BSN, MSN) 80 Psychiatric/Mental Health Nurse/Nursing Nursing, Other Adult Health Nurse/Nursing Public Health/Community Nurse/Nursing Nurse Anesthetist Perioperative/Operating Room and Surgical Nurse/Nursing Family Practice Nurse/Nurse Practitioner Pre-Nursing Studies Maternal/Child Health and Neonatal Nurse/Nursing Nurse Midwife/Nursing Midwifery Clinical Nurse Specialist Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 28 $8.07 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Health Aide Nurse/Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 25 $13.47 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 2 Floriculture/Floristry Operations and Management Consumer Merchandising/Retailing Management Special Products Marketing Operations Specialized Merchandising, Sales, and Marketing Operations, Other E-Commerce/Electronic Commerce 2 Retailing and Retail Operations Selling Skills and Sales Operations Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other Correctional officers and jailers 23 $12.54 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Juvenile Corrections Corrections and Criminal Justice, Other Corrections Elementary school teachers, except special education 22 $17.49 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 43 Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Teacher Education, Multiple Levels Education, General 1 Montessori Teacher Education Elementary Education and Teaching Maintenance and repair workers, general 20 42 $14.59 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Building/Construction Site Management/Manager Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 16 $16.28 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 52 29

Occupation 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training (LPN, LVN, Cert, Dipl, AAS) Annual Enrollment at College 52 Pre-Nursing Studies Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $15.94 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 14 $15.88 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 1 Junior High/Intermediate/Middle School Education and Teaching Art Teacher Education Health Teacher Education Music Teacher Education Social Science Teacher Education Family and Consumer Sciences/Home Economics Teacher Education Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Physical Education Teaching and Coaching Social Studies Teacher Education English/Language Arts Teacher Education Technology Teacher Education/Industrial Arts Teacher Education Health Occupations Teacher Education Education, General 1 Reading Teacher Education Computer Teacher Education Foreign Language Teacher Education History Teacher Education Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas, Other Montessori Teacher Education Mathematics Teacher Education Science Teacher Education/General Science Teacher Education Team assemblers 14 $9.60 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Customer service representatives 14 $11.25 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Receptionist Customer Service Support/Call Center/Teleservice Operation Police and sheriff's patrol officers 14 $15.35 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 31 Criminalistics and Criminal Science Criminal Justice/Police Science First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers 13 $10.81 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 31 58 Cooking and Related Culinary Arts, General Restaurant, Culinary, and Catering Management/Manager Foodservice Systems Administration/Management Social and human service assistants 13 58 $10.95 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Mental and Social Health Services and Allied Professions, Other Preschool teachers, except special education 12 $7.42 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 57 Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Education, General 1 Child Care and Support Services Management Montessori Teacher Education 30

Occupation 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs Annual Enrollment at College Kindergarten/Preschool Education and Teaching Early Childhood Education and Teaching Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 11 $17.27 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 56 1 Montessori Teacher Education Mathematics Teacher Education Science Teacher Education/General Science Teacher Education Chemistry Teacher Education Physics Teacher Education Teaching French as a Second or Foreign Language Junior High/Intermediate/Middle School Education and Teaching Art Teacher Education Health Teacher Education Drama and Dance Teacher Education Spanish Language Teacher Education Secondary Education and Teaching Business Teacher Education Music Teacher Education Social Science Teacher Education French Language Teacher Education Speech Teacher Education Driver and Safety Teacher Education Family and Consumer Sciences/Home Economics Teacher Education German Language Teacher Education Geography Teacher Education Teacher Education, Multiple Levels Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Physical Education Teaching and Coaching Social Studies Teacher Education Latin Teacher Education English/Language Arts Teacher Education Technology Teacher Education/Industrial Arts Teacher Education Health Occupations Teacher Education Psychology Teacher Education Education, General 1 Sales and Marketing Operations/Marketing and Distribution Teacher Education Reading Teacher Education Computer Teacher Education Agricultural Teacher Education Foreign Language Teacher Education Biology Teacher Education History Teacher Education Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas, Other Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 10 $16.59 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Apparel and Accessories Marketing Operations Special Products Marketing Operations Sales, Distribution, and Marketing Operations, General 31