/16/217 Overview of the National and Washington Region Economies Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University May 11, 217 How did the U.S. economy perform in 216 and what is the outlook for 217? 1
/16/217 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 3 31 Quarters After Trough *in 1992 or 29 Chained Dollars ** Quarters 26+ include the 29 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 21-Q4** 29-Q2 %. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. - (.) *After 2 Quarters Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 31 Quarters 4.3 2.7 3.7 2..3.3 (.1) 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 21-Q4* 29-Q2 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment 2.6 1.8 2.1 1..2 2
/16/217 Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 31 Quarters Post-Recession 7.% 6.%.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.2% 3.% 3.4% 2.7% 4.4% 2.7% 4.% 3.7% 1982-Q3 1991-Q1 21-Q4* 29-Q2.% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 1Q 11Q 12Q 13Q 14Q 1Q 16Q 17Q 18Q 19Q 2Q 21Q 22Q 23Q 24Q 2Q 26Q 27Q 28Q 29Q 3Q 31Q * Quarters 26+ include the 29 Recession Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 1. 1.. - (.) (1.) (1.) (2.) (2.) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 3
/16/217 U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 6. 4. 2. - (2.) (4.) (6.) (8.) (1.) Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Ranked by Size in 216 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector March 216 March 217-37 (s) 48 41 46 6 77 31-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 18 179 187 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 247 21 Total = +2,13 632 4
/16/217 (s) 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 22 = 27k Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU % 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 U.S. Unemployment Rate March 29 March 217 Mar 17 = 4.% IHS Forecast 17 4. 18 4.2 19 4. 2 4.1 21 4.2 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (il 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
/16/217 ($/barrel) 12 1 8 Brent Crude Spot Price $ per barrel Forecast 6 4 2 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 221 Sources: IHS Economics (il 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (%) 4 3 2 1-1 U.S. Consumer Prices Percent Change, 21-221 Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (il 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 6
/16/217 (%) 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Interest Rates Average Annual, 21-221 Forecast 3-Yr 1-Yr Treasury Fed Sources: IHS Economics (il 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU U.S. Consumer Confidence il 21 il 217 14 12 1 8 Expectations 6 4 2 Present - -1-11 -12-13 -14-1 -16-17 Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 7
/16/217 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) 6, 6,,, 4, 4, 3, 3, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) 6 6 4 4 3 3 Sources: U.S. Census (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU U.S. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays (%) 4 3 2 3.1 3.8 3. 3. 2.2 1.9 2.3 1. 1. 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.7 Forecast 3.3 3. 2. 2.4 1-1 -2 -.3-1.6 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 221 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (il 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 8
/16/217 % 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 27 217 Forecast -1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (March 217), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU How is the Washington economy performing? 9
/16/217 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 Washington Region Economic Indices (1 = 1996) Leading Index (left axis) Recession 7 1-8 -9-1 -11-12 -13-14 -1-16 -17 Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Leading Index 12-Month Avg Coincident Index (right axis) Coincident Index 12-Month Avg 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 Washington MSA Annual Job Change Month-Over-The-Year (s) Mar 17 = +. 1 1 - -1 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1
/16/217 (s) 2 17 1 12 1 7 2 1 Largest U.S. Job Markets Job Change: March 216 March 217 Washington: +, Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) Annual Change 1 8 Washington MSA Annual Job Change, 22-217 Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17 = +. 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 11
/16/217 Ranked by Size in 216 Prof. & Business Services Edu.& Health Services Federal Govt State & Local Govt Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Washington MSA Job Change by Sector March 216 March 217-4 -3 (s) -3-2 -1 1 2 3 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1 2 1 1 4 1 14 2 Total =, (s) 2. 2. 1. 1.. - (.) (1.) (1.) (2.) Professional and Business Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Mar 17 Total = 744.9 Administrative & Waste Management Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 12
/16/217 (s) 3 3 2 2 1 1 - -1 Education and Health Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Mar 17 Total = 44.7 Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) Annual Change 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2 Federal Government Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17 Total = 366.8 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 13
/16/217 (s) 2 Leisure and Hospitality Services Jobs Washington MSA Annual Month Over-the-Year Mar 17 Total = 322.8 Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment 1 1 - -1 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) Annual Change 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 District of Columbia Annual Job Change, 22-217 Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17 = +6.2 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 14
/16/217 (s) Annual Change 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Suburban Maryland Annual Job Change, 22-217 Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17 = +26.6 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (s) Annual Change 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Northern Virginia Annual Job Change, 22-217 Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17 = +28.1 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1
/16/217 Washington Metropolitan Area Unemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 21-217 (%) 12 1 8 6 4 2.7 DC 4. U.S. 3.7 MSA 3.8 SMD 3.1 NVA Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (%) 6 4 3 2 1 U.S = 4.% 1 Largest U.S. Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment March 217 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US: Seasonally Adjusted; MSA: Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 16
/16/217 How did the Washington region s housing market perform in 216? Existing Homes Sales Washington MSA 14, Mar 17: 7,2 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 17
/16/217 (%) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Washington MSA Month-Over-Year 2 217 Mar 17: -.% Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month Total Listings Per Sale, Washington MSA March of Each Year 2 2 PG 1 1 PW DC LD ARL FFX MONT 2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 18
/16/217 (s of $) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Mar 17: $396.6k Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute (%) 3 2 Annual Change Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA: All Housing Types Annual Month-Over-Year Change 212 213 214 21 216 Mar 17: +.% 1-1 -2-3 2 22 24 26 28 21 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 19
/16/217 (%) 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA: Single-Family Detached Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change Mar % : DC = +2.9; SM = +8.7; NV = +3.6 212 213 214 21 216 2 27 29 211 Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute (%) 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA: Single-Family Attached Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change Mar % : DC = +4.8; SM = +2.9; NV = +3. 212 213 214 21 216 2 27 29 211 Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 2
/16/217 (%) 3 2 2 1 1 - -1-1 Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA: Condo Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change Mar % : DC = +4.6; SM = +12.; NV = +2.1 212 213 214 21 216 2 27 29 211 Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - Washington MSA Building Permits 24 217, 3-Month Moving Average Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 21
/16/217 What is the Washington region s economic outlook? Employment Change by Sub-State Area Baseline Forecast (s) 214 21 216 217 218 219 22 221 D.C..2 1.9 13. 8.9.3 4.9 4. 3. Sub. MD 1.2 12. 14.4 14.4 12.7 1.9 8..7 No. VA.8 29.8 31. 23.9 26.6 19.7 13.7 12.9 REGION 18.6 7.7.6 4.9 41.3 33.1 27.9 24. Average Annual Change 199-21 = 36,3 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of il 217) NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. 22
/16/217. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.. - Employment Forecast Scenarios Baseline 211 (a) Trump (b) 4.9 41.3 3.7 33.1 28.7 28. 27.8 27.9 26.1 22.9 24. 2.8 21. 22.1 2.2 217 218 219 22 221 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of il 217) (a) Incorporating spending reductions providing for in the Budget Control Act of 211. (b) Reflecting federal spending reductions in Trump FY 218 Budget Blueprint released March 16, 217 (%) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP Baseline Forecast 27 21 221(Annual % Change) U.S. Washington Forecast Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of il 217) 23
/16/217 (%) 4 3 2 1 Washington MSA and Sub-State Areas Economic Outlook (GRP), Baseline Forecast 27-221 (Annual % Change) Forecast NoVA WMSA Sub MD DC -1-2 Sources: IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of il 217) Thank You & Questions For monthly reports on the Washington region s economic performance go to: sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu 24