What have We Learned About Educational Attainment?

What have We Learned About Educational Attainment? February 2017 Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

Most Educated Metros- 2015 % Population with Bachelor s degree or higher, 2015 36% - 49% 33% - 36% 30% - 33% 27% - 30% 16% - 27% Top 10 metros: Washington, DC 49% San Jose, CA 49% San Francisco, CA 47% Bridgeport, CT 46% Boston, MA 46% Durham, NC 45% 37% +5.8% Raleigh, NC 44% Madison, WI 44% Austin, TX 43% Metro Atlanta is an educated place. About 37 percent of adults have at least a bachelor s degree, which ranks in the top 20 of all metros. Denver, CO 42% (Atlanta, #19) 37% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2015 1-Year American Community Survey via Neighborhood Nexus

Change in Selected Metros: 2000-2015 Population with Bachelor s Degree or Higher, 2000 & 2015 % Change 2000-2015 Atlanta Atlanta 5.0% Austin Austin 5.9% Boston Boston 11.6% Charlotte Charlotte 7.0% Chicago Chicago 7.1% Cleveland Cleveland 5.9% Dallas Dallas 5.0% Denver Houston 5.0% Houston Denver 6.3% Minneapolis Minneapolis 7.0% Seattle Seattle 9.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2000 BA+ 2015 BA+ Among some selected peer metros, Atlanta has seen one of the smallest increases in adults with at least a bachelor's degree, on par with the increases seen in Dallas and Houston, the other socalled sunbelt metros on this list. Source: 2000 Summary File 3 and 2015 1-Year American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Source: 2000 Summary File 3 and 2015 1-Year American Community Survey 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27% 39% 19% 17% 40% 45% 10- Region: Population with Bachelor s Degree or Higher 36% 42% 19% 32% 36% 47% 41% 50% 34% 35% 20% 28% 25% 23% Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale 2000 BA+ 2015 BA+ Levels of education attainment vary throughout the region 2000: Highest and lowest % with BA+ Fulton 41% Clayton 17% 2015: Highest and lowest % with BA+ Fulton 50% Clayton 19% In looking locally at educational attainment, some counties in the Atlanta region have experienced significant increases in the percentage of those with at least a bachelor s degree. Douglas, for example, has experienced a 13 percentage-point increase in those with at least a bachelor s degree since 2000, tops in the region. Cherokee also experienced a significant increase (+12 percentage points). Overall, though, Fulton leads the region in the percentage of those with at least a bachelor s degree.

Source: 2011-2015 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, via Neighborhood Nexus % Population with a Bachelor s degree or higher (2011-2015 average) 55% - 91% 37% - 55% 26% - 37% 18% - 26% 0% - 18% Where do residents with the highest educational attainment live? The heaviest concentrations of residents with at least a Bachelor s degree are in the northern part of the City of Atlanta, extending upwards through Fulton, Forsyth, and Cobb counties

Source: 2006-2010 & 2011-2015 5-Year American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, via Neighborhood Nexus % Change in population with a Bachelor s degree or higher (2006-2010 average & 2011-2015 average) 6% - 34% 3% - 6% -0.4% - 3% -4% - -0.4% -21% - -4% By looking at these two distinct 5-year averages from the American Community Survey, we can compare change. The areas in red experienced the greatest increase in residents with at least a Bachelor s degree, although there is no clear pattern, as there are areas in nearly every county that both lost and gained educated residents. What neighborhoods added the most educated residents? Note: We did not include tests of statistical significance for this map. Thus several areas that show change might actually fall within the margins of error.

Source: 2006-2010 & 2011-2015 5-Year American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, via Neighborhood Nexus % Change in population with a Bachelor s degree or higher (2006-2010 average & 2011-2015 average) 6% - 34% 3% - 6% -0.4% - 3% -4% - -0.4% -21% - -4% What neighborhoods added the most educated residents? These red areas are the top quintile, or the top 20% that experienced the greatest percentage-point increases in residents with a Bachelor s degree or higher. Note: We did not include tests of statistical significance for this map. Thus several areas that show change might actually fall within the margins of error.

How are educational attainment and income linked? Change in Bachelor s Degree + and Poverty rate: 12% 10% 9.7% The poverty rate for those areas in the top quintile for change (i.e. the areas that had the greatest increase in BA+ residents) went up only one percentage point, while the poverty rate in the bottom quintile (greatest decrease in BA+ residents) had a 4.4 percentagepoint increase in the poverty rate. This pattern shows how poverty rate and educational attainment are linked. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 4.4% 1.1% -6% -8% -6.9% Bottom quintile Top quintile Change in poverty rate Change in BA+ Source: 2006-2010 & 2011-2015 5-Year American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, via Neighborhood Nexus

Unemployment Rate by Education Level This graph shows national-level data on the relationship between unemployment and educational attainment. Those with at least a bachelor s degree have consistently had the lowest unemployment rates. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Educational Mismatch Employer Demand - Education Requirements In looking at the education that employers are seeking in job postings, approximately 58 percent of these postings require at least a bachelor s degree, but only 36 percent of the adult population has at least a bachelor s degree. There is thus a gap in the education level that employers are seeking and the education level that the current workforce has. 30.93% 10.87% 53.53% 4.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% High school or vocational training Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree 57.1% 7.0% 22.9% 13.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Population 25+ - Educational Attainment Source: ARC Analysis of Burning Glass Labor Insight Data August 2016

Highest Postsecondary Credential Earned After Five Years 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 58.2% 21.2% 13.9% 46.0% 19.0% 28.0% 41.9% 23.8% 28.2% 52.5% 25.8% 15.7% 37.1% 35.6% 24.9% 33.0% 17.8% 39.6% 48.4% 50.6% 26.0% 26.3% 20.3% 17.3% 28.0% 24.0% 40.3% 33.6% 21.9% 39.1% 38.8% 22.9% 31.8% 49.3% 23.0% 45.5% 44.4% 22.2% 25.1% 19.9% 28.3% 22.9% No Postsecondary Credential/Not Enrolled No Postsecondary Credential/Enrolled Other Credential Masters or Higher Bachelors Certificate 0% 3.3% 5.0% 3.9% 4.0% 2.9% 5.0% 3.2% 3.2% 4.8% 2.9% 3.8% 5.9% Atlanta Public Schools Buford City Cherokee Clayton Cobb Decatur City DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry 2.0% Marietta City 5.0% Rockdale Associates As is the case for educational attainment overall, there is a wide range of outcomes for high school graduates at the local school district level. In Fayette schools, for example, some 40 percent of the graduating class of 2010 had earned a bachelor s degree by 2015, which is the highest rate in the region. Source: GOSA, via Neighborhood Nexus