Presentation Topics 1. Enrollment Trends 2. Attainment Trends Past, Present, and Future Challenges & Opportunities for NC Community Colleges August 17, 217 Rebecca Tippett Director, Carolina Demography 3. Basic Skills 4. Continuing Education & Curriculum 5. Projections 6. Opportunities & Challenges NCCC enrollment down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 for all NCCC program types, 21-15 6, Total NCCC Fall Enrollments Enrollment Trends 438, 4, Attachment PLAN 1 2, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 1 SBCC
NCCC enrollment down 21% from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 for all NCCC program types, 21-15 6, Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 552, in 29 438, 4, -115, or -21% since 29 2, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 All NCCC enrollment types down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 by program type, 21-15 3, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Attachment PLAN 1 Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 NCCC enrollment down from peak levels Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 for all NCCC program types, 21-15 6, Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 552, in 29 438, 4, 2, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Fall enrollment for non-nccc programs has held steady Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 for all program types, 21-15 6, Total NCCC Fall Enrollments 4, UNC & Private Enrollments 2 SBCC 267, 2, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215
215 highest year of UNC enrollments since 21 Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 by program type, 21-15 Attachment PLAN 1 Private enrollments down slightly from 211 peak Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 by program type, 21-15 3, 2,, Privates 3, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 2, UNC, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Fewer for-profit enrollments main driver of private decline Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 by program type, 21-15, 215 fall enrollments below peak for all except UNC Difference between 215 fall headcount (18-64) and peak 21-15 enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit -8-2,5-32,3-4,5-76,8 Non-Profit Private 5, For-Profit Private 3 SBCC 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215
Basic skills had largest percentage decrease Percent difference between 215 fall headcount (18-64) and peak 21-15 enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit % -1% -14% -14% -28% Basic Skills (BS) -5% Steady increases in number of PSD eligible since 199 Adults (18-64) by educational attainment, 199-215 PSD Eligible 3.2M Attachment PLAN 1 2.3M 766K AA+ 2.2M 1M <HS 199 1995 2 25 2 215 Continuing education programs had largest numeric drop Difference between 215 fall headcount (8-64) and peak 21-15 enrollment by program type CC-CE CC-BS CC-CU UNC Private, Non-Profit For-Profit -2,5-8 -32,3-4,5 Continuing Education (CE) -76,8 Attainment Trends 4 SBCC
Attachment PLAN 1 Less variation in BS & PSD eligibility among young adults Educational attainment of NC young adults (18-24) by race/ethnicity, 215 Share of BS & PSD eligible adults varies by race/ethnicity Educational attainment of NC adults (18-64) by race/ethnicity, 215 <HS PSDE AA+ <HS PSDE AA+ Black 12% 61% 26% Black 16% 77% 7% American Indian 2% 59% 21% Amer Ind 21% 76% 4% White 8% 49% 43% White 12% 7% 18% Hispanic 41% 43% 16% Hispanic 25% 68% 7% Asian 13% 33% 55% Asian 8% 68% 25% 4.4K students enrolled in Basic Skills in 215 Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 enrolled in Basic Skills, 21-15, BS Fall Enrollments 5, Basic Skills 4,35 5 SBCC 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215
Attachment PLAN 1 4.4K students enrolled in Basic Skills in 215, half 21 peak Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 enrolled in Basic Skills, 21-15, 8,85 in 21 BS Fall Enrollments Steady decline in number of BS eligible since 199 Number of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED, 199-215 1M BS eligible (<HS) 766K 199 1995 2 25 2 215 5, 4,35 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 NCCC enrolling fewer eligible adults in BS programs Share of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED enrolled in BS program, 21-215 8.8% in 29 % BS eligible enrolled in NCCC 2 25 2 215 Population share BS eligible nearly halved since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) without a HS diploma or GED, 199-215 23% 6 SBCC % BS eligible 12% 199 1995 2 25 2 215
Attachment PLAN 1 42% of basic skills eligible adults were female in 215 In 199, majority of BS eligible were white or black Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, 199-215 White Black Hispanic Other 4% 5% 5% 15% 29% 25% 29% 26% 25% 22% 67% Young adults comprise smaller share of BS enrollments Age composition of CC-BS Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs 215 54% 44% 43% 18-24 25-34 35-64 199 2 2 215 215 31% 31% 38% 21 43% 27% 3% 52% of basic skills enrolled adults were female in 215 7 SBCC
Eligible black adults more likely to enroll in CC-BS programs Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adults (18-64) vs. CC-BS Fall enrollments, 215 BS Eligible BS Enrollment* *among those reporting race/ethnicity 43% 31% 32% 3% 29% 22% 6% 5% White Black Hispanic Other Continuing Education enrollments at 15-year low Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 enrolled in Continuing Education programs, 21-215 3, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Attachment PLAN 1, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Today, 3 in BS eligible adults are Hispanic Race/ethnic composition of BS eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, 199-215 White Black Hispanic Other 4% 5% 5% 15% 29% 25% 29% 26% 22% 25% 67% 54% 44% 43% 199 2 2 215 Continuing Education & Curriculum 8 SBCC
Attachment PLAN 1 Curriculum enrollments down -14% or -32K from 2 peak Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 enrolled in CE or CU programs, 21-215 3, 236,4 24, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Steady increases in number of PSD eligible since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, 199-215 PSD Eligible 3.2M 2.2M 199 1995 2 25 2 215 Curriculum (CU), 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 And proportion PSD eligible has declined since 2 peak Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, 199-215 53% 52% % PSD eligible 51% 199 1995 2 25 2 215 But little change in share PSD eligible since 199 Population share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no postsecondary degree, 199-215 51% 52% % PSD eligible 9 SBCC 199 1995 2 25 2 215
Attachment PLAN 1 Majority of CU enrollments in 215 were young adults Age composition of CC-CU Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs 215 18-24 25-34 35-64 215 56% 25% 2% NCCC enrolling fewer eligible adults in CU & CE programs Share of adults (18-64) with HS/GED but no PSD enrolled in CU or CE, 21-215.6% % PSDE enrolled in CE 6.4% 7.4% % in CU 6.1% 2 25 2 215 Majority of CE enrollments are adults 35-64 Age composition of CC-CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs 215 21 47% 26% 27% 18-24 25-34 35-64 49% of postsecondary degree eligible adults were female in 215 SBCC 55% 27% 17% 215 5% 28% 22% 21
Attachment PLAN 1 5% of CU or CE enrollees were female in 215 4% of Continuing Education enrollees were female in 215 6% of Curriculum enrollees were female in 215 Black & Hispanic adults growing share of PSD eligible Race/ethnic composition of PSD eligible adult (18-64) population in NC, select years, 199-215 White Black Hispanic Other 3% 21% 23% 7% 7% 25% 26% 77% 71% 65% 61% 199 2 2 215 11 SBCC
Attachment PLAN 1 NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 215 58% 23% 9% NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 66% 23% 5% 1% 2% White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian NCCC CU/CE participants are increasingly diverse Racial/ethnic composition of CU & CE Fall enrollments (18-64), 21 vs. 215 2% 2% White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian Eligible Hispanic adults more likely to enroll in CU/CE Race/ethnic composition of PSD eligible adults (18-64) vs. CU/CE Fall enrollments, 215 CU/CE Eligible CU/CE Enrollment* *among those reporting race/ethnicity 61% 62% 26% 24% 58% % 7% 5% 4% White Black Hispanic Other -8% 23% 2% 2% 9% +4% 12 SBCC White Black Hispanic American Indian Asian
Attachment PLAN 1 Projections Intent to attend community college varies across state Share of NC HS graduates intending to attend community college or technical school, 215 Curriculum enrollments may match 2 peak in 222 Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, 21-236 3, 2,, Curriculum (CU) 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 CC interest highest in areas with slow growth or declines Population growth, 2-215 13 SBCC Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Basic Skills enrollments won t exceed 6K in coming decades Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, 21-236 3, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 PSDE, BSE, and NCCC enrollments will grow more slowly than total population Projected percentage change in selected populations (18-64), 216-236 14% 11% 12% Attachment PLAN 1 9% Total Population PSD Eligible BS Eligible Any NCCC Enrollments Continuing Ed. enrollments will never match 21 peak Observed and projected fall enrollments (18-64) by program type, 21-236 3, Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 236 And these projections may be optimistic Fall headcount of students ages 18-64 by program type, 21-15 3, 211-15 ACS Continuing Education (CE) 2, Curriculum (CU), Basic Skills (BS) 14 SBCC 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215
Statewide, NCCC enrollments will increase from 216 levels Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, 216-236 24% 16% STATE +9% 8% % Change from 216 % -8% 216 221 226 231 236 Fast-growing metro areas will outpace state growth Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, 216-236 Southwest +21% 24% North Central +19% 16% Attachment PLAN 1 Southeast 12% 8% % Change from 216 % -8% 216 221 226 231 236 PSDE, BSE, and NCCC enrollments will grow more slowly than total population Projected numeric change in selected populations (18-64), 216-236 +867K +374K +84K +46K Total Population PSD Eligible BS Eligible Any NCCC Enrollments But trends will vary by region Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, 216-236 24% 16% STATE +9% 8% % Change from 216 15 SBCC % -8% 216 221 226 231 236
Attachment PLAN 1 Declines in areas with legacy of manufacturing, agriculture Projected fall NCCC enrollments (18-64) as percentage change from 216, 216-236 24% Range of experiences projected across 58 system schools Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 7 8 >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% 16% 8% Decline Increase % Change from 216 Sandhills -2% % Northeast -5% Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 Largest percentage declines: -22% Halifax CC -21% Martin CC 8 7 Largest numeric declines: -93 Surry CC -87 Halifax CC -86 Nash CC -85 Fayetteville Technical CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase Northwest -6% -8% 216 221 226 231 236 Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 57% of schools will have fewer 18-64 year-olds 8 enrolled in 236 7 16 SBCC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase
17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 8 43% of schools will have more 18-64 year-olds enrolled in 236 7 >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase 17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 Largest percentage increases: +43% Brunswick CC +37% Johnston CC Attachment PLAN 1 8 7 Largest numeric increases: +11.6K Central Piedmont CC +11.2K Wake Tech CC +3.8K Johnston CC +3.3K Rowan-Cabarrus CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase Majority of NCCC schools will see enrollment declines Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 Largest percentage declines: -22% Halifax CC -21% Martin CC 8 7 Largest numeric declines: -93 Surry CC -87 Halifax CC -86 Nash CC -85 Fayetteville Technical CC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase 17% of schools projected to see enrollment increase by >2% Number of Community Colleges by projected change in total fall enrollments (18-64), 216 vs. 236 13 8 Largest percentage increases: +43% Brunswick CC +37% Johnston CC 7 Largest numeric increases: +11.6K Central Piedmont CC +11.2K Wake Tech CC +3.8K Johnston CC +3.3K Rowan-Cabarrus CC 17 SBCC >% 5-% -5% -% -2% >2% Decline Increase
For-profits have attracted growing share of degree seekers Enrollments in CC curriculum and for-profit programs (4-year and 2-year), 21-215 Opportunities & Challenges 25, 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Majority of high school grads report postsecondary intent Share of NC high school graduates with intent to attend postsecondary by LEA, 215 Attachment PLAN 1 7% of degree-seeking adults 35-64 were enrolled in a for-profit 18 SBCC
Attachment PLAN 1 18% of NC high school graduates met all 4 ACT college readiness benchmarks in 216 Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education Parental attainment for NC children in households, 215 46% of NC high school graduates met zero ACT college readiness benchmarks in 216 Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education, especially degree completion Parental attainment for NC children in households, 215 No Postsecondary No PSD 79% 64% 6% 63% 51% 36% 38% 36% 33% 28% 2% 16% All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic No Postsecondary No PSD 63% 36% 33% 28% 2% 16% 19 SBCC All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic
Attachment PLAN 1 Entering students/workers distinct from retirees Racial/ethnic composition of NC population by selected age groups, 215 White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian Other 355, Hispanic children in NC 72% 21% 3% 63% 22% % 55 to 64 25 to 54 18 to 24 57% 24% 11% to 17 55% 24% 14% 4% Under 51% 23% 17% 5% Many NC children live in households with limited exposure to postsecondary education, especially degree completion Parental attainment for NC children in households, 215 Contact Rebecca Tippett Director, Carolina Demography rtippett@unc.edu (919) 962-6151 http://demography.cpc.unc.edu No Postsecondary No PSD 79% 2 SBCC 63% 64% 6% 51% 36% 36% 38% 33% 28% 2% 16% All Children Asian White Black American Indian Hispanic