Facing the Coming Challenges for Higher Education Institutions Sally Johnstone 6 February 2019 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems nchems.org higheredinfo.org Student Services Summit Florida Virtual Campus
Three stories all based to shifting demographics and technologies. Why we need to change practices to sustain access to higher education How to change campus cultures to assure student success When to create a new campus with its own culture 2
Shifting Demographics High School Graduates Source: Peace Bransberger & Demarée K. Michelau. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 9 th Edition, Boulder, CO: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2016. 3
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Regional Variation
Shifting Demographics Source: Peace Bransberger & Demarée K. Michelau. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 9 th Edition, Boulder, CO: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2016. 6
New realities Current practices will no longer work to sustain our postsecondary education enterprise Institutions must find ways share both administrative and academic services if they are to be sustainable Challenges to the shift from single institutions being completely autonomous to be sustainable 7
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Actual and Projected High School Graduates in Pennsylvania 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door. Actual Projected 8
Revenue and Expenditures for PASSHE Institutions, 2007-08 to 2014-15 $2,100,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,900,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $1,700,000,000 $1,600,000,000 $1,500,000,000 Source: NCES IPEDS 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Revenue Expenditures 9
PASSHE Institutions & Pennsylvania Community Colleges Lawrence Beaver Edinboro University Erie Crawford Slippery Rock Mercer University 13 Allegheny Washington Greene Butler 12 Venango 14 Clarion Armstrong Westmoreland California University Fayette Warren Forest Clarion University Indiana University Jefferson Indiana 11 10 Somerset Elk Cambria 1. Montgomery County Community College 2. Bucks County Community College 3. Delaware County Community College 4. Community College of Philadelphia 5. Reading Area Community College 6. Lehigh Carbon Community College 7. Northampton Community College Mckean Clearfield Cameron Blair Bedford Centre Huntingdon Fulton Potter Clinton Franklin Mansfield Tioga University Bradford Lock Haven University Mifflin Juniata Perry Shippensburg University Cumberland Adams Lycoming Union Snyder Dauphin York Sullivan Bloomsburg University Montour Columbia Northumberland Schuylkill Lebanon Millersville University Lancaster 8. Luzerne County Community College 9. HACC Central PA s Community College 10. Pennsylvania Highlands Community College 11. Westmoreland County Community College 12. Community College of Allegheny County 13. Community College of Beaver County 14. Butler County Community College 9 Susquehanna Wyoming Luzerne 8 Kutztown University 5 Berks Lackawanna Carbon Lehigh Wayne Monroe Northampton Montgomery Pike East Stroudsburg University 6 7 West Chester 1 University 3 4 2 Bucks Chester Philadelphia Delaware Cheyney University
Per Capita Income by County, 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 11
Summary of Conditions Hyper-competitive market Shrinking pool of high school graduates Long-term decreasing state support Student ability to pay tuition will be constrained Gaps in service for adults and northern tier Costs outpacing revenue Limited maneuverability for campuses to respond to changes 12
PASSHE realities Regardless of local conditions: Uniform tuition is set by state system Union contracts bargained centrally and uniform across system Academic review process is multi-layered and complex State allocation process encourages competition versus cooperation/collaboration among institutions Governance structure does not encourage fiduciary responsibility Approval of a collective bargaining agreement with no realistic plan to cover costs Lack of urgency to address fiscal problems before they reach a crisis Inadequate support for campus leaders facing difficult problems 13
OVERVIEW OF RECOMMENDATIONS 14
A Consortium Model more radical than closure or mergers 15 15
What about HEI s in Florida? 16
Per Capita Personal Income, 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Florida and Pennsylvania Population by Age (Numbers) 25,000,000 Florida Pennsylvania 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 0-18 19-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, SC-EST2017-ALLDATA6: Annual State Resident Population, File: 7/1/2017 State Characteristics Population Estimates
Florida and Pennsylvania Population by Age, Percent of Total Florida Pennsylvania 25.1% 24.8% 26.5% 27.4% 21.2% 22.1% 20.1% 17.8% 7.2% 7.9% 0-18 19-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, SC-EST2017-ALLDATA6: Annual State Resident Population, File: 7/1/2017 State Characteristics Population Estimates
How do we shift campus Cultures? Goal: To increase student success among Latino, Black, and American Indian students using data-affirmed practices Roots: Founded in 2016 and funded by proceeds from the sale of the non-profit PAR (Predictive Analytics Reporting) to a for-profit company http://fssawards.org/ 20
Foundation for Student Success Seven mentor institutions working with 21 mentee institutions on campus culture change to reduce equity gaps among all students. 21
Mentor Institutions California State University, Channel Islands, CA Los Medanos College, CA Rutgers University - Newark, NJ San Jacinto College, TX Santa Fe College, FL University of South Florida, FL Winston-Salem State University, NC 22
University of South Florida Six-Year GRADUATION Rate *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data. 23
USF 6-Year Graduation Rate: RACE & ETHNICITY *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data. 24
Initial Revelations Campus culture change takes a long time and constant attention 25
Levers for Campus Culture Change 1. Data collection, analysis, and use How to find and use available data. Engaging Institutional Research (IR) offices as partners. Developing Key Performance Indicators (KPI) on student success and using data to hold the campus community accountable. 26
Levers for Campus Culture Change 2. Effective campus-wide communication and engagement Campus-wide training for faculty (including adjuncts) and all nonacademic staff Communication to entire campus community regarding culture change Data and progress are shared with the campus community. All faculty and staff are engaged as partners in the goal of institutional culture change and equity gap reduction on their campus. 27
Levers for Campus Culture Change 3. Hiring strategies and personnel policies Hiring strategies need to promote campus culture change and include activities such as revising job descriptions and interview questions, ensuring diverse search committees, and diversifying job posting locations/websites. All campus community members are held responsible for student success. 28
Levers for Campus Culture Change 4. Auditing campus and state policies and practices to identify those that perpetuate the status quo Identify alignment with institutional culture change and equity gap reduction strategies. Evaluate practices that can easily change and those that are mandated by institutional or state policies Work to modify practices and policies as needed. 29
Stepping outside the campuses CA Gov. Brown asked for plan to meet the needs of the 2.5 million working 25 34 year-olds whose jobs are likely to disappear due to automation in ten years. www.cccco.edu Half speak Spanish at home. 30
California On-line Community College Design parameters: Employers embraced CBE format Lessons accessible on mobile devices 10 30 minutes long Include brief assessments Faculty teams include instructional designers, content experts, and assessment experts Bilingual support services Enrolling first students in medical coding certification program in July 2019 31
Thank you! Sally@nchems.org www.nchems.org 32
CRITICAL ELEMENTS OF WGU MODEL FOR STUDENT SUCCESSDESIGN PRINCIPLES FOR CBE 1. Degree reflects robust and valid competencies. 2. Students are able to learn at a variable pace and are supported in their learning. 3. Effective learning resources are available to students anytime and are reusable. 4. The process for mapping competencies to courses/learning outcomes/assessments is explicit. 5. The assessments are secure and reliable. Johnstone, S. M., & Soares, L. (2014). Principles for developing competency-based education programs. Change: The Magazine of Higher Learning, 46(2), 12-19.)