Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators April 9 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone 239-59-7319 Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965
Table of Contents Table of Contents... 2 Airport Activity... 4 Chart 1: Regional Airport Arrivals and Departures... 4 Chart 2: RSW Traffic Trend... 5 Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend... 5 Tourism Tax Revenues... 6 Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues... 6 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues... 7 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues... 7 Single-Family Building Permits... 8 Chart 7: Lee County... 8 Chart 8: Collier County... 9 Chart 9: Charlotte County... 9 Taxable Sales... 1 Chart 1: Taxable Sales by County... 1 Chart 11: Lee County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier... 11 Chart 12: Collier County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier... 11 Chart 13: Charlotte County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier... 12 Workforce Unemployment... 12 Chart 14: Regional Unemployment... 13 Chart 15: Coastal County Unemployment... 13 Chart 16: Inland County Unemployment... 14 Sales of Single Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price... 14 Chart 17: Lee County... 15 Chart 18: Collier County... 15 Chart 19: Charlotte County... 16 Consumer Price Index... 16 Chart 2: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 17 Population... 17 Chart 21: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 8... 18 Chart 22: Inland County Growth 199 to 8... 18 Table 1: Projections by County... 19 Chart 23: Projections by County... 19 Chart 24: Population Distribution 199... 2 Chart 25: Population Distribution 8... 2 Chart 26: Population Distribution 23... 21 2
Contact List: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7317 Email: gjackson@fgcu.edu Mr. Steve Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Introduction The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee met on March 18, 9, and stated that the economy continues to decline with consumers worried about jobs and loss of wealth as stock market and housing prices decline. Consumer spending is down and businesses are having difficulty obtaining credit. The global economy has slowed, reducing U.S. exports. The minutes of the March 17-18, 9 Federal Open Market Committee were recently released and stated, " The staff's projections for real GDP in the second half of 9 and in 21 were revised down, with real GDP expected to flatten out gradually over the second half of this year and then to expand slowly next year as the stresses in financial markets ease, the effects of fiscal stimulus take hold, inventory adjustments are worked through, and the correction in housing activity comes to an end. The weaker trajectory of real output resulted in the projected path of the unemployment rate rising more steeply into early next year before flattening out a high level over the rest of the year." The next meeting of the Open Market Committee is planned for April 28 and 29, 9. Our regional economic indicator charts show the impact of the slowdown in the local economy in the form of low retail sales, high unemployment rates, low permitting levels, and low inflation rates. Unemployment in Lee County reached 12.2 percent in March. Airport passenger traffic at Regional Southwest(RSW) is off by four percent from last February. February tourism revenues are down for Lee and Collier Counties while Charlotte County showed a increase compared to the same month last year. The Regional Economic Research Institute (RERI) is continuing to develop the regional economic database, and this report, as a way to support its mission and assist the region. The Institute thanks its many partners for assistance in obtaining the data, including the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, and the county and city permit offices. 3
Airport Activity Airport passenger activity is defined as the sum of arrivals and departures for Regional Southwest Florida, Sarasota and Naples airports. In Chart 1, passenger activity for Regional Southwest Florida (RSW) and Sarasota (SRQ) are shown on the left vertical axis and the numbers for Naples airport (APF) are shown on the right vertical axis. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March and April. Significantly lower activity takes place in the summer months, especially the period of June to September. Charts 2 and 3 illustrate the monthly seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Regional Southwest Florida (RSW) airport located in Lee County is ranked as one of the fifty busiest airports in the nation. The 8 passenger activity peaked in March at 1,3,151 and as expected, activity levels fell over the slower summer months, as shown in Chart 1. The February 9 passenger level was 89,99 which is four percent lower than the February 8 level of 845,741. Sarasota (SRQ) passenger activity was 13,541 in February 9 or approximately 22 percent lower than February 8, albeit up 14 percent from January 9. Charlotte County has added commercial passenger service and we plan to track activity levels there as information becomes available. Arrivals+Departures (RSW & SRQ) Thousands 1 1 8 6 4 Chart 1: Regional Airport Arrivals and Departures Feb 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 Airport Passenger Arrivals plus Departures (APF on Right hand scale) May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Month RSW (SWFL Int'l) SRQ (Sarasota) APF (Naples) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Hundreds Arrivals+Departures (APF) Source: Local Airport Authorities 4
1 Chart 2: RSW Traffic Trend RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 1 8 6 4 7 8 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities Chart 3: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend 25 SRQ (Sarasota) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 15 1 5 7 8 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5
Tourism Tax Revenues Tourism tax revenues for the region are shown in Charts 4, 5, and 6, and are based on month of occupancy. The charts show that tourism tax revenues were down 12 percent in February for Lee and 14 percent for Collier compared to February 8. Conversely, Charlotte County recorded a 1 percent increase versus February 8, which was unexpected given the current economic climate. 6 Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues Lee County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 6-9 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 5 4 3 6 7 8 9 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 6
3 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues Collier County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 6-9 25 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 15 1 6 7 8 9 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 35 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues Charlotte County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue 6-9 3 Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 25 15 1 6 7 8 9 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 7
Single-Family Building Permits Single-family home permits issued remained low for the region as the economy's recession and a large inventory of homes continued to put downward pressure on housing prices. The March single-family permitting in Lee County decreased to 5 in March from 55 in February as shown in Chart 7; one year ago, the figure was 74. Single-family permits for Collier County decreased from 58 in February to 36 in March, as shown in Chart 8. This fell short of the Collier County total of 47 in March 8. In Charlotte County, 29 permits were issued in March 9 compared to 4 in both February 9 as well as March 8. This is illustrated in Chart 9. 16 Chart 7: Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County -7 Monthly Averages for Each Year; Most Recent 12 Months Data 14 1 Permits Issued 1 8 6 4 Av 1 Av 2 Av 3 Av 4 Av 5 Av 6 Av 7 8 Av Av Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. 8
Chart 8: Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County -8 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data 3 25 15 1 5 Av 1 Av 2 Av 3 Av Permits Issued 4 Av 5 Av 6 Av 7 Av 8 Av Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. Chart 9: Charlotte County 3 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 1-8 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data 25 Number of Permits 15 1 5 1 Av 2 Av 3 Av 4 Av 5 Av 6 Av 7 Av 8 Av Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. 9
Taxable Sales The taxable sales charts show month of collection rather than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. This makes December the latest collection month plotted on the following charts. The taxable sales figures are used to track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. Chart 1 provides a historical range of average monthly taxable sales from to 8. Each of the counties had a month-to-month increase in taxable sales in December 8, as expected during the busier winter season. The local impact of the current recession is clearly visible in the yearto-year percentage drops in taxable sales. Lee County saw December 8 taxable sales 12 percent below December 7 levels as shown in Chart 11. Collier and Charlotte Counties experienced year-toyear reductions of 11 and 12 percent, respectively, as shown in Charts 12 and 13. Hendry County s taxable sales (not charted) were off by 21 percent from a year earlier, while Glades (not charted) was down by 16 percent. Chart 1: Taxable Sales by County 1, Monthly Taxable Sales to 8 4 1, 35 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Millions 8 6 4 Charlotte Collier Lee Glades Hendry 3 25 2 15 1 Glades / Hendry - Millions 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12mo ending Dec8 Monthly Averages for Each Year and Most Recent 12 Months Source: Florida Department of Tax Research 1
Chart 11: Lee County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier 1% Lee County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Source: Florida Department of Tax Research Chart 12: Collier County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% -18% -2% Collier County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Source: Florida Department of Tax Research 11
Chart 13: Charlotte County Taxable Sales - Change from a Year Earlier 1% Charlotte County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Source: Florida Department of Tax Research Workforce Unemployment Unemployment levels in Southwest Florida remain high, as shown in Chart 14. The unemployment rates reported in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Lee County's unemployment rate rose from 12.1 percent in February 9 to 12.2 percent in March 9. Collier County's unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in March 9 from 9.3 percent in February 8. Charlotte County's unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in March 9 from 11.8 percent in February 9. Hendry County unemployment increased from 1.9 percent in February to 11.3 percent in March 9. Glades County's unemployment decreased from 8. percent in February 8 to 7.9 percent in March 9. The Florida unemployment rate was 9.5 percent in January 9 (not seasonally adjusted) and the national unemployment rate was 9. percent for March 9 (not seasonally adjusted). Charts 15 and 16 show the unemployment rates for our region and provide a longer term historical perspective from to 8 and the latest 13 months. Unemployment rates above 5. percent reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. Our region has been hit particularly hard due to its dependence on housing and construction in general. 12
16. 14. 12. Chart 14: Regional Unemployment SWFL County Unemployment Rates (%) - Most Recent 13 Months Charlotte Collier Glades Hendry Lee 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Source; AWI 13. 11. Chart 15: Coastal County Unemployment SWFL Coastal County Unemployment Rates (%) -8 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data Charlotte Collier Lee 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Source AWI 13
16. Chart 16: Inland County Unemployment SWFL Inland County Unemployment Rates (%) -8 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data 14. 12. Glades Hendry 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Mar 9 Source AWI Sales of Single Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price The number of existing single-family homes sold by Realtors in February 9 increased from the prior month in Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. Lee County sales increased from 758 in January 9 to 875 in February 9, as shown in Chart 17. The median sales price for Lee County increased from $94,9 to $97,5. Collier County sales increased from 19 to 221 with the median price increasing to $, from $175, in February as shown in Chart 18. Charlotte County sales increased from 175 in January to 216 in February, with the median sales price decreasing from $99,5 to $96,4, as shown in Chart 19. 14
1 Chart 17: Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $3 1 $25 Homes Sold by Realtors 8 6 4 Lee Homes Sold by Realtors Lee Median Sale Price $ $15 $1 $5 $ Mar 7 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8 Feb 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 Median Sale Price - Thousands May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Source: Florida Association of Realtors Fort Myers Cape Coral MSA http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Chart 18: Collier County Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 3 $6 25 $5 Homes Sold by Realtors 15 1 5 Collier Homes Sold by Realtors Collier Median Sale Price $4 $3 $ $1 $ Mar 7 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8 Feb 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Median Sale Price - Thousands Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 15
35 Chart 19: Charlotte County Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $25 Homes Sold by Realtors 3 25 15 1 5 Charlotte Homes Sold by Realtors Charlotte Median Sale Price $ $15 $1 $5 $ Mar 7 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Median Sale Price - Thousands Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8 Feb 8 Mar 8 Apr 8 May 8 Jun 8 Jul 8 Aug 8 Sep 8 Oct 8 Nov 8 Dec 8 Jan 9 Feb 9 Source: Florida Association of Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Price Index The consumer price index (CPI) is reported for the nation, region, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area CPI is collected every two months. For the last 12 months ending in February 9, it has increased by.7 percent, as shown in Chart 2. The overall Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI index for the last 12 months ending February 9 can be broken down into the following component parts: Food and beverages rose 3.7 percent; Housing rose 2.9 percent; Apparel fell 2.8 percent; Transportation fell 9.2 percent; Medical care rose 5.4 percent; Recreation rose 3.1 percent; Education and communication fell.2 percent; and Other goods and services rose 3.9 percent. Food, medical care, and other goods and services costs have risen substantially over the last year. 16
Chart 2: CPI Annual Percentage Change Change From Year Earlier 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region * US National 1.%.% -1.% * South Region: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia. Feb- Feb-1 Feb-2 Feb-3 Feb-4 Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 Feb-9 Source: BLS Population The length and severity of the current global recession is expected to slow regional and state population growth for the next couple of years. A Florida Demographic Estimating Conference was held in July 8 and their forecasts are included in this report. Charts 21 and 22 show the historic population growth from 199 to 8. Collier County grew at an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent from 199 to 8. Lee County almost doubled its population from 199 to 8 growing at an annual rate of 3.6 percent. As indicated in Chart 22, Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 2.2 and 2.5 percent per year. Table 1 shows projected population increases for 8 to 23 and Chart 21 provides a chart of the population projections for 8 through 23. Charts 24 through 26 provide the percentages of regional population by County for the years 199, 8, and 23. 17
Chart 21: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 8 7 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Population - Thousands 6 5 4 3 Charlotte Collier Lee 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Florida EDR: July 8. Chart 22: Inland County Growth 199 to 8 45 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Population - Thousands 3 25 2 15 Glades Hendry 1 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Florida EDR: July 8. 18
Table 1: Projections by County EDR Demographic Estimating Conference Population Estimates and Projections by County Year Charlotte Collier Lee Hendry Glades 8 166,112 339,128 631,733 4,28 11,256 21 169,694 353,878 654,599 4,828 11,597 22 195,899 455,288 852,5 46,678 12,556 23 219,266 548,872 1,33,51 51,969 13,422 Source: Florida EDR: July 8. 1 Chart 23: Projections by County Population Growth Projections 6 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Thousands 1 8 6 4 5 Glades / Hendry - Thousands 4 3 2 1 8 21 215 22 225 23 Charlotte Collier Lee Glades Hendry Source: Florida EDR: July 8. 19
Chart 24: Population Distribution 199 Population Distribution by County - 199 Collier 24% Glades 1% Hendry 4% Charlotte 18% Lee 53% Source: Florida EDR: July 8. Chart 25: Population Distribution 8 Population Distribution by County - 8 Collier 29% Glades 1% Hendry 3% Charlotte 14% Lee 53% Source: Florida EDR: July 8. 2
Chart 26: Population Distribution 23 Population Distribution by County - 23 Collier 29% Glades 1% Hendry 3% Charlotte 12% Lee 55% Source: Florida EDR: July 8. 21