Projected Demographics of High School Graduates April 19, 2018
Key Points on HS Graduates 1. Though demographic shifts continue, some of the largest changes have already occurred. 2. The number of HS graduates in Virginia is expected to be relatively stable. Nationally, the number is expected to grow until 2026, led by the South region. National graduates will decline modestly thereafter, with the South region stable. 3. The largest growth is expected in the number of Hispanic HS graduates followed by Asian/Pacific Islander. African American graduates are expected to remain stable or decline slightly. 2
Number of HS Graduates (n) Virginia: Relatively Stable Numbers Projected Virginia HS Graduates 120,000 100,000 90,456 95,632 90,284 80,000 71,537 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door 3
Public High School Graduates (n) Virginia: Relatively Stable Demographics 120,000 Projected Virginia Public HS Graduates by Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/AK Native 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 3,311 2,342 14,930 6,649 9,303 10,996 16,602 19,105 17,716 20,000 45,339 49,258 47,086 0 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door 4
Number of HS Graduates (in millions) National: Growth Led by the South Region Projected U.S. HS Graduates by Region South West Midwest Northeast 4.0 3.5 3.46 3.56 3.30 3.0 2.85 0.61 0.56 2.5 0.54 0.74 0.67 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.70 0.67 0.95 0.83 0.79 1.28 1.27 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the Door 5
Public High School Graduates (in millions) Millions National: Demographic Shifts Continue 4.0 Projected U.S. Public HS Graduates by Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/AK Native 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.20 0.74 0.13 0.30 0.34 0.47 1.78 1.77 0.24 0.79 0.44 1.59 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the Door 6
Key Points: W&M Out-of-State Demographics Weighting states according to the percentage of out-of-state students enrolled at W&M allows a view of anticipated shifts within W&M s out-of-state applicant pool. 1. The total number of high school graduates is expected to be flat through 2022, followed by growth until 2026, then decline until 2030. 2. Demographic shifts will continue, though some of the most dramatic shifts have already occurred. 7
Public High School Graduates (n) W&M OOS: Continuing Growth Until 2026 300,000 Projected Public HS Graduates for W&M Out-of-State Mix White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/AK Native 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 16,709 58,513 10,455 24,012 26,267 36,228 20,803 63,783 34,142 131,387 129,905 50,000 114,039 0 Source: Calculated based on WICHE, Knocking at the Door 8
Percentage of Public High School Graduates W&M OOS: Continuing Demographic Shifts Projected Public HS Graduates for W&M Out-of-State Mix White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/AK Native 100% 5% 7% 9% 90% 12% 80% 24% 14% 27% 70% 60% 50% 40% 68% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15% 53% 15% 49% Source: Calculated based on WICHE, Knocking at the Door 9
Percent of Respective Cohort Additional Considerations Advanced Studies Diplomas Awarded to Virginia Class of 2017 HS Completers Advanced Studies Diploma All Students Not all high school diplomas reflect college preparation by the recipient. In Virginia, differences by gender and race are seen among recipients of Advanced Studies diplomas. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 62% All Students 57% 51% 46% Female Male American Indian 79% 40% 47% 48% Asian Black Hispanic Native Hawaiian 63% White 59% Two or more races Gender Race/Ethnicity Source: Calculated from Va. Dept. of Ed., Class of 2017 Cohort Report 10
Demographic Shifts Already Underway Students of Color as a Percent of Total Undergraduates W&M UVA All Va. Public 4-yr. Inst. Va. HS Graduates 50% The demographic shifts since 2000 are mirrored in the shifting compositions of enrollments at Virginia public institutions of higher education. 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 31% 27% 22% 15% 44% 38% 33% 31% 10% 5% 0% Source: SCHEV Report E22: Fall Headcount, Trends in Race Ethnicity 11
AN EARLY LOOK AT FALL 2018 ADMISSIONS 12
2018 Admission Update Fall 2017 Fall 2018* Applications 14,921 14,645 Class Size 1534 1530 (target) Admit Rate 35.9% 36.2% SAT Q1-Q3 1330-1490** 1360-1530** SAT Median 1410** 1460** ACT Q1-Q3 31-34 31-34 ACT Median 32 33 *Fall 2018 statistics are to date, and not official **SAT results reflect only those students submitting the redesigned SAT--Fall 2017 likely negatively impacted 13
2018 Admission Update Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Top Decile 87.3% 87.6% Students of Color 34.5% 35.2% First Generation 9.2% 8.6% International 6.6% 7.0% States 50 50 Countries 52 48 14